One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're...
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because...
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.
I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices.
For what it's worth: The Specialized Chisel is still very much in production and for sale, just not in the US. They still sell it here in Europe and the rest of the world. My friends at Specialized Germany have confirmed to me that the bike is still in production and can be ordered by dealers in unlimited quantity.
We can only guess, but by the looks of it, Specialized no longer considers it a (sufficiently) profitable endeavour to import one of their best-selling bikes into the US due to the effects of orange man's tariffs.
they more or less refused to play the tariff game. I finally took my nsr off my truck and wanted their garage stand so it would match and they basically refused to sell it to me. Ultimately there was other options so I went there.
Definitely an example of a small business struggling with ever changing policies between its largest trade partner.
Great to see Garmin doing well but I can’t help but think they are the next “blackberry”. I have a hunch the categories itself is really...
Great to see Garmin doing well but I can’t help but think they are the next “blackberry”. I have a hunch the categories itself is really growing. But when their new bike computers look more and more like smartphones, it begs the question if Apple can end up eating their lunch if they wanted to down the road.
Apple is really far off Garmin when it comes to battery life, at least as far as watches are concerned.
Great to see Garmin doing well but I can’t help but think they are the next “blackberry”. I have a hunch the categories itself is really...
Great to see Garmin doing well but I can’t help but think they are the next “blackberry”. I have a hunch the categories itself is really growing. But when their new bike computers look more and more like smartphones, it begs the question if Apple can end up eating their lunch if they wanted to down the road.
Apple is really far off Garmin when it comes to battery life, at least as far as watches are concerned.
Yep, I replaced my Apple Watch with a Garmin because the Apple's battery life is such shit when using it for activity tracking. Recording skiing, it would die before 2:00 after charging overnight due the load of GPS recording and cold. My Fenix is good for a week for normal use, at least a few days when recording a long activities each day. And it charges fast enough that throwing it on the charger while I shower is basically infinite battery life. Apple's GPS accuracy isn't as good either per tests on DC Rainmaker. Garmin has some other nice features too, like a built in flashlight. (Sounds silly, but it's incredibly useful in practice, especially when you need both hands free.)
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're...
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because...
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.
I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices.
For what it's worth: The Specialized Chisel is still very much in production and for sale, just not in the US. They still sell it here...
For what it's worth: The Specialized Chisel is still very much in production and for sale, just not in the US. They still sell it here in Europe and the rest of the world. My friends at Specialized Germany have confirmed to me that the bike is still in production and can be ordered by dealers in unlimited quantity.
We can only guess, but by the looks of it, Specialized no longer considers it a (sufficiently) profitable endeavour to import one of their best-selling bikes into the US due to the effects of orange man's tariffs.
Interesting, I was told a very different story from specialized in Canada which is why I bought mine right after while they still had some. Maybe it's a euro market thing and they're just cutting them out in NA which is a shame because I spent way more time on it than I expected this year, it's a riot.
I was told the smartweld construction on the Chisel, and the complex to be shapes on the Demo 8 were too expensive for the volume they were moving on those models, where the stumpy alloy, Allez, and Crux DSW sell in large enough numbers and the Status and Diverge alloy's are simple and cheap enough to warrant their existence. Most customers that could have been chisel people just bought the entry level Epic 8 for a few more dollars.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to...
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe Merida tens of millions of dollars from the results of having a vacuum cleaner salesman as ceo during Covid.
If I were Merida, I would certainly be weary about extending generous terms to Specialized on low-margin products.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to...
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe...
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe Merida tens of millions of dollars from the results of having a vacuum cleaner salesman as ceo during Covid.
If I were Merida, I would certainly be weary about extending generous terms to Specialized on low-margin products.
Do they owe Merida money or is that the rumor? Genuinely curious if there is some stale AP on Specialized books.
they more or less refused to play the tariff game. I finally took my nsr off my truck and wanted their garage stand so it would...
they more or less refused to play the tariff game. I finally took my nsr off my truck and wanted their garage stand so it would match and they basically refused to sell it to me. Ultimately there was other options so I went there.
Definitely an example of a small business struggling with ever changing policies between its largest trade partner.
I have a feeling the added weight of e-bikes isn’t helping either. Trying to hoist your 50ish pound bike up after a ride doesn’t sound like fun compared to a tray style that you can almost roll it on.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to...
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe...
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe Merida tens of millions of dollars from the results of having a vacuum cleaner salesman as ceo during Covid.
If I were Merida, I would certainly be weary about extending generous terms to Specialized on low-margin products.
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing...
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing returns. Less progress, less differentiation, for more money. This naturally favors bigger firms.
Right now what’s happening is that firms that have developed actual structural advantages will be more able to persist and those that don’t are more likely to get squeezed out. This isn’t related to micro brands like frameworks or whatever random bullshit sethimus is going to bring up next. That is pure fashion. I’m talking about for brands that need to sell thousands of units in order to keep the lights on. The advantages I’m talking about are things like retail partners (floor space), manufacturing, etc.
Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes. Or a company like x-lab that can produce a bike at retail that’s half the cost and all the spec of the thing next to it on the floor because of their huge manufacturing capabilities.
How does a company like Pivot, Yeti, Transition, etc compete in this world? It becomes increasingly difficult. Worse still for less established brands like revel, evil, GT etc.
You can debate the strength of one brand over another or whatever, but like jeff.brines said, amflow is now fox’s biggest customer. That’s a huge amount of market share they captured overnight. Because they are backed by a massive company that was able to do a huge R&D push to innovate and then bring those innovations to market at very attractive prices.
What is jimmy’s cool bike brand going to do to respond to the market share they are losing? 5mm longer chainstays next year at 2x the cost of amflow/x-lab/etc? This is what people are talking about when they are saying there are too many brands. Why does brand X exist? Because they are cool guys who ride cool trails in this cool place? Not good enough outside of small fashion brands. Passion can only get you so far.
What is left to western brands? Innovate on less tangible aspects of bike development that only comes to light if you're a passionate (ab)user of the...
What is left to western brands? Innovate on less tangible aspects of bike development that only comes to light if you're a passionate (ab)user of the product you're developing and/or selling. And figure out the marketing tactic as you're also essentially on the receiving end of it and understand it from the buyer's perspective.
If you're a big factory you can copy all you want. Or hire consultants to do quick development (suspension layouts, geometries and the like). But if you're not part of the market (Chinese customers are DEFINITELLY a different customer to the western customer) or have a big factory that needs to be running, it's hard to do 'out there' things, those big changes need to come to you from a market acceptability perspective.
I know it looks like I'm dissing China as a producing only, non-riding country. Apparently the local scene is developing rapidly. But that's just the point, even in a fully developed Chinese MTB market their demands will be different to ours and the product fit might not be as good as with western brands driving the development. QED Chinese cars - yeah they're popular and are outselling western brands, but a big part of that is because they are more affordable. Styling and feature wise they might not be the best fit for the western world. Another point on this is BMW 'losing the plot' in recent years and I've been told a few years back that the changes in development (that are now on the market) were driven exclusively by the Chinese market and the needs of the Chinese customer. That was at the time when China was a big market for them, but that has changed recently. Will they refocus their development on the west? How long will that take before we get the first cars designed with the west in mind?
Even with bikes this regionality comes to light a lot. Bikes and big ideas recently had a 'light trail bike' podcast focused around the Allied Fitz. A lot of the discussion revolved around how the bike is light, doesn't have as slack a headtube and has a slacker seattube than some other options because that fits the Bentonville better than the average alpine focused winch and plummet geometry bike.
So I'd say anything small scale, 'out there', locally made and proudly sold because of that stands a chance in the west, but as you mentioned, the middle sized (maybe even the big ones) companies have a lot to fear at this moment. Customer support and perceived trust from the consumers that spare parts and warranty replacements will be readily available without much of a problem is what is left plus the customers that want to ride what Tadej Pogačar won his umpteenth Tour de France on or what Jackson Goldstone won the worlds on last Sunday.
Re region specific geo: new Amflows have a matrix totaling 40 different geometry configurations with adjustable head angle, chainstay length, and BB height.
I helped my dad work on his new Amflow PR this past weekend (brake swap so we were up in the frame) and the fit/finish/quality out of the box was easily as good as the high end western brands I've built up frames from. (Ibis, SC, Trans, Spesh) I'm a nerd so I care about things like bolts having torque specs printed on them (the Amflow does) and millions of geo adjustments.
Putting tools to the Amflow def had me reconsidering my "wouldn't be caught dead on an Amflow" stance. The apparent quality + DTC price from my LBS is hard to pass up...
PB reported that Ghost-Bikes GmbH has announced it is starting shutdown proceedings after finding "no viable solution"
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their sponsorship of the occasional European enduro racer, I have next to no exposure to this brand in North America as a consumer, let alone in the industry. I'd love to hear some perspective from someone in Germany or elsewhere European.
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their...
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their sponsorship of the occasional European enduro racer, I have next to no exposure to this brand in North America as a consumer, let alone in the industry. I'd love to hear some perspective from someone in Germany or elsewhere European.
I'm just going to be lazy and copy paste over the Wikipedia history;
"In January 2022, it was announced that Accell Group would be acquired by the American investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) in a deal valued at approximately €1.56 billion.[6] The acquisition was completed in August 2022, and Accell Group was delisted from the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange.
Following the acquisition, Accell Group was impacted by a severe industry downturn. In 2023, revenues declined to €1.294 billion, and the company reported a net loss of €390 million, which included €344 million in one-off costs related to obsolete stock, restructuring, and a major product recall of its Babboe cargo bikes.[7]
In October 2024, Accell Group announced an agreement with its creditors to reduce its debt by approximately €600 million, from €1.4 billion to €800 million.[8] The company also worked to normalize its inventory, successfully reducing its stock of finished bikes from a peak of 340,000 in late 2023 to 169,000 by November 2024.[1]"
So sad for the employees and everyone involved. But holy crap KKR got absolutely shafted with that deal.
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing...
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing returns. Less progress, less differentiation, for more money. This naturally favors bigger firms.
Right now what’s happening is that firms that have developed actual structural advantages will be more able to persist and those that don’t are more likely to get squeezed out. This isn’t related to micro brands like frameworks or whatever random bullshit sethimus is going to bring up next. That is pure fashion. I’m talking about for brands that need to sell thousands of units in order to keep the lights on. The advantages I’m talking about are things like retail partners (floor space), manufacturing, etc.
Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes. Or a company like x-lab that can produce a bike at retail that’s half the cost and all the spec of the thing next to it on the floor because of their huge manufacturing capabilities.
How does a company like Pivot, Yeti, Transition, etc compete in this world? It becomes increasingly difficult. Worse still for less established brands like revel, evil, GT etc.
You can debate the strength of one brand over another or whatever, but like jeff.brines said, amflow is now fox’s biggest customer. That’s a huge amount of market share they captured overnight. Because they are backed by a massive company that was able to do a huge R&D push to innovate and then bring those innovations to market at very attractive prices.
What is jimmy’s cool bike brand going to do to respond to the market share they are losing? 5mm longer chainstays next year at 2x the cost of amflow/x-lab/etc? This is what people are talking about when they are saying there are too many brands. Why does brand X exist? Because they are cool guys who ride cool trails in this cool place? Not good enough outside of small fashion brands. Passion can only get you so far.
What is left to western brands? Innovate on less tangible aspects of bike development that only comes to light if you're a passionate (ab)user of the...
What is left to western brands? Innovate on less tangible aspects of bike development that only comes to light if you're a passionate (ab)user of the product you're developing and/or selling. And figure out the marketing tactic as you're also essentially on the receiving end of it and understand it from the buyer's perspective.
If you're a big factory you can copy all you want. Or hire consultants to do quick development (suspension layouts, geometries and the like). But if you're not part of the market (Chinese customers are DEFINITELLY a different customer to the western customer) or have a big factory that needs to be running, it's hard to do 'out there' things, those big changes need to come to you from a market acceptability perspective.
I know it looks like I'm dissing China as a producing only, non-riding country. Apparently the local scene is developing rapidly. But that's just the point, even in a fully developed Chinese MTB market their demands will be different to ours and the product fit might not be as good as with western brands driving the development. QED Chinese cars - yeah they're popular and are outselling western brands, but a big part of that is because they are more affordable. Styling and feature wise they might not be the best fit for the western world. Another point on this is BMW 'losing the plot' in recent years and I've been told a few years back that the changes in development (that are now on the market) were driven exclusively by the Chinese market and the needs of the Chinese customer. That was at the time when China was a big market for them, but that has changed recently. Will they refocus their development on the west? How long will that take before we get the first cars designed with the west in mind?
Even with bikes this regionality comes to light a lot. Bikes and big ideas recently had a 'light trail bike' podcast focused around the Allied Fitz. A lot of the discussion revolved around how the bike is light, doesn't have as slack a headtube and has a slacker seattube than some other options because that fits the Bentonville better than the average alpine focused winch and plummet geometry bike.
So I'd say anything small scale, 'out there', locally made and proudly sold because of that stands a chance in the west, but as you mentioned, the middle sized (maybe even the big ones) companies have a lot to fear at this moment. Customer support and perceived trust from the consumers that spare parts and warranty replacements will be readily available without much of a problem is what is left plus the customers that want to ride what Tadej Pogačar won his umpteenth Tour de France on or what Jackson Goldstone won the worlds on last Sunday.
Re region specific geo: new Amflows have a matrix totaling 40 different geometry configurations with adjustable head angle, chainstay length, and BB height.I helped my dad...
Re region specific geo: new Amflows have a matrix totaling 40 different geometry configurations with adjustable head angle, chainstay length, and BB height.
I helped my dad work on his new Amflow PR this past weekend (brake swap so we were up in the frame) and the fit/finish/quality out of the box was easily as good as the high end western brands I've built up frames from. (Ibis, SC, Trans, Spesh) I'm a nerd so I care about things like bolts having torque specs printed on them (the Amflow does) and millions of geo adjustments.
Putting tools to the Amflow def had me reconsidering my "wouldn't be caught dead on an Amflow" stance. The apparent quality + DTC price from my LBS is hard to pass up...
Yeah man, the level of adjustability on offer on the new Amflows really caught my eye. I know some people hate flip chips due to the risk of creaks, theoretical cost increases from manufacturing complexity, etc...but I am super happy to see the increased adjustability, because it is a real bummer to keep seeing bikes that are a compelling package except for 1 little geometry flaw. Plus, even if a bike seems like it checks my boxes, I haven't tried everything, and having more adjustability would allow me to try other setups without committing to a whole new bike, and importantly, without introducing other variables.
For example, over the years I've seen lots of arguments about optimal BB height, HT angles, and these days chain stay length seems to be the hot geometry debate. Personally, I THINK I like a low BB and moderately short stays, but one of these Amflows would let me try higher, longer, etc...and I might be surprised by how much better it is. And from a manufacturers perspective it seems like a really smart move to me. How many bikes do we see released that get slagged because some element of the geo is perceived to be "from 2016", or conversely, "jumped the shark" and gone too far in the long low slack progression. This geo adjustment allows the bike to morph into nearly any configuration a consumer could want, so it assures the brand they won't have "guessed wrong" about geometry trends and preferences (unless you're a flip chip hater), so they could potentially run the same frame design for much longer than the standard 3year refresh cycle.
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their...
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their sponsorship of the occasional European enduro racer, I have next to no exposure to this brand in North America as a consumer, let alone in the industry. I'd love to hear some perspective from someone in Germany or elsewhere European.
From a european standpoint the bikes were fairly innovative.
Ghost had size specific chain stay lengths in '05
Ghost had a high pivot dh bike in ~2010
Ghost Fire Road Rage was one the first in the gravel market mtb tire clearance and a clear adventure focus in '17
Ghost Riot LC bikes are a early example for integrated linkage in '14
Yes, it is a very euro/german brand regarding geo and specs. They may have not been desirable for the US consumer. But you should not underestimate the brand. But looking at the dates above, you can clearly see when the enterprise took over and the innovation died down :D
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their...
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their sponsorship of the occasional European enduro racer, I have next to no exposure to this brand in North America as a consumer, let alone in the industry. I'd love to hear some perspective from someone in Germany or elsewhere European.
I'm just going to be lazy and copy paste over the Wikipedia history;"In January 2022, it was announced that Accell Group would be acquired by the...
I'm just going to be lazy and copy paste over the Wikipedia history;
"In January 2022, it was announced that Accell Group would be acquired by the American investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) in a deal valued at approximately €1.56 billion.[6] The acquisition was completed in August 2022, and Accell Group was delisted from the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange.
Following the acquisition, Accell Group was impacted by a severe industry downturn. In 2023, revenues declined to €1.294 billion, and the company reported a net loss of €390 million, which included €344 million in one-off costs related to obsolete stock, restructuring, and a major product recall of its Babboe cargo bikes.[7]
In October 2024, Accell Group announced an agreement with its creditors to reduce its debt by approximately €600 million, from €1.4 billion to €800 million.[8] The company also worked to normalize its inventory, successfully reducing its stock of finished bikes from a peak of 340,000 in late 2023 to 169,000 by November 2024.[1]"
So sad for the employees and everyone involved. But holy crap KKR got absolutely shafted with that deal.
They bought a public company, took it private, and ruined it. Sounds like their creditors got shafted - THEY did the deal!
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their...
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their sponsorship of the occasional European enduro racer, I have next to no exposure to this brand in North America as a consumer, let alone in the industry. I'd love to hear some perspective from someone in Germany or elsewhere European.
I'm just going to be lazy and copy paste over the Wikipedia history;"In January 2022, it was announced that Accell Group would be acquired by the...
I'm just going to be lazy and copy paste over the Wikipedia history;
"In January 2022, it was announced that Accell Group would be acquired by the American investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) in a deal valued at approximately €1.56 billion.[6] The acquisition was completed in August 2022, and Accell Group was delisted from the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange.
Following the acquisition, Accell Group was impacted by a severe industry downturn. In 2023, revenues declined to €1.294 billion, and the company reported a net loss of €390 million, which included €344 million in one-off costs related to obsolete stock, restructuring, and a major product recall of its Babboe cargo bikes.[7]
In October 2024, Accell Group announced an agreement with its creditors to reduce its debt by approximately €600 million, from €1.4 billion to €800 million.[8] The company also worked to normalize its inventory, successfully reducing its stock of finished bikes from a peak of 340,000 in late 2023 to 169,000 by November 2024.[1]"
So sad for the employees and everyone involved. But holy crap KKR got absolutely shafted with that deal.
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just write a cheque out of the old savings account for €1.56 billion.
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just...
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just write a cheque out of the old savings account for €1.56 billion.
Never mind. I did some googling. KKR did write a big ol cheque for this mess and they have taken a €1.1 Billion write down on this.
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just...
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just write a cheque out of the old savings account for €1.56 billion.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to...
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe...
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe Merida tens of millions of dollars from the results of having a vacuum cleaner salesman as ceo during Covid.
If I were Merida, I would certainly be weary about extending generous terms to Specialized on low-margin products.
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just...
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just write a cheque out of the old savings account for €1.56 billion.
KKR is one of the largest PE/asset management firms in the world. With over $500B under management. They're a public company on the NYSE. Some partners are...
KKR is one of the largest PE/asset management firms in the world. With over $500B under management. They're a public company on the NYSE.
Some partners are definitely being shown the door after loosing €1.1B on bikes in 4 years.
Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.
For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in the world, has been around for 50 years, and has done thousands of deals.
Based on my quick-and-dirty research into publicly documented deals, this looks like one of KKR's biggest losses in absolute dollars, potentially among its five worst (ever!)
Expanding the comparison to the entire private equity industry, I'd rank it around the ~20th worst deal ever. Especially when you consider the speed in which this one went belly up. I could go dig and figure out what fund it was in to see what IRR its kicked off (depending on if that is public)
Yeah...heads probably rolled. But then again, you'd be surprised how that sometimes works.
Some more on KKR/Accell here, including detailing main players - interesting to see the head of EMEA at KKR, Timothy Franks, drove the deal, left a year later, just as issues were starting to show:
For what it's worth: The Specialized Chisel is still very much in production and for sale, just not in the US. They still sell it here in Europe and the rest of the world. My friends at Specialized Germany have confirmed to me that the bike is still in production and can be ordered by dealers in unlimited quantity.
We can only guess, but by the looks of it, Specialized no longer considers it a (sufficiently) profitable endeavour to import one of their best-selling bikes into the US due to the effects of orange man's tariffs.
they more or less refused to play the tariff game. I finally took my nsr off my truck and wanted their garage stand so it would match and they basically refused to sell it to me. Ultimately there was other options so I went there.
Definitely an example of a small business struggling with ever changing policies between its largest trade partner.
Apple is really far off Garmin when it comes to battery life, at least as far as watches are concerned.
Yep, I replaced my Apple Watch with a Garmin because the Apple's battery life is such shit when using it for activity tracking. Recording skiing, it would die before 2:00 after charging overnight due the load of GPS recording and cold. My Fenix is good for a week for normal use, at least a few days when recording a long activities each day. And it charges fast enough that throwing it on the charger while I shower is basically infinite battery life. Apple's GPS accuracy isn't as good either per tests on DC Rainmaker. Garmin has some other nice features too, like a built in flashlight. (Sounds silly, but it's incredibly useful in practice, especially when you need both hands free.)
Interesting, I was told a very different story from specialized in Canada which is why I bought mine right after while they still had some. Maybe it's a euro market thing and they're just cutting them out in NA which is a shame because I spent way more time on it than I expected this year, it's a riot.
I was told the smartweld construction on the Chisel, and the complex to be shapes on the Demo 8 were too expensive for the volume they were moving on those models, where the stumpy alloy, Allez, and Crux DSW sell in large enough numbers and the Status and Diverge alloy's are simple and cheap enough to warrant their existence. Most customers that could have been chisel people just bought the entry level Epic 8 for a few more dollars.
It also doesn't help that other companies are offering similar products in the same space, and are arguably doing a better job [i.e. Velocirax].
Polygon(a factory in lightly tarrif’d Polynesia)owns Marin. Specialized is miniority owned by Merida, the folks who make their high end aluminum bikes… but Specialized must owe Merida tens of millions of dollars from the results of having a vacuum cleaner salesman as ceo during Covid.
If I were Merida, I would certainly be weary about extending generous terms to Specialized on low-margin products.
Do they owe Merida money or is that the rumor? Genuinely curious if there is some stale AP on Specialized books.
I have a feeling the added weight of e-bikes isn’t helping either. Trying to hoist your 50ish pound bike up after a ride doesn’t sound like fun compared to a tray style that you can almost roll it on.
This is older reporting but it is a good reference for how interconnected the 2 businesses are. https://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2025/03/14/merida-writes-down-105-million-impairment-related-specialized-investment With their 35% ownership stake I could see Merida keeping a tight leash given recent history. But, this is the bike industry, so maybe they are going with the “enough rope” strategy.
PB reported that Ghost-Bikes GmbH has announced it is starting shutdown proceedings after finding "no viable solution"
At least his avatar is 100% spot on 😂
Re region specific geo: new Amflows have a matrix totaling 40 different geometry configurations with adjustable head angle, chainstay length, and BB height.
I helped my dad work on his new Amflow PR this past weekend (brake swap so we were up in the frame) and the fit/finish/quality out of the box was easily as good as the high end western brands I've built up frames from. (Ibis, SC, Trans, Spesh) I'm a nerd so I care about things like bolts having torque specs printed on them (the Amflow does) and millions of geo adjustments.
Putting tools to the Amflow def had me reconsidering my "wouldn't be caught dead on an Amflow" stance. The apparent quality + DTC price from my LBS is hard to pass up...
For me this is like if Rose announced they were shutting down. Other than a somewhat brief stint where they were sold at MEC or their sponsorship of the occasional European enduro racer, I have next to no exposure to this brand in North America as a consumer, let alone in the industry. I'd love to hear some perspective from someone in Germany or elsewhere European.
I'm just going to be lazy and copy paste over the Wikipedia history;
"In January 2022, it was announced that Accell Group would be acquired by the American investment firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) in a deal valued at approximately €1.56 billion.[6] The acquisition was completed in August 2022, and Accell Group was delisted from the Euronext Amsterdam stock exchange.
Following the acquisition, Accell Group was impacted by a severe industry downturn. In 2023, revenues declined to €1.294 billion, and the company reported a net loss of €390 million, which included €344 million in one-off costs related to obsolete stock, restructuring, and a major product recall of its Babboe cargo bikes.[7]
In October 2024, Accell Group announced an agreement with its creditors to reduce its debt by approximately €600 million, from €1.4 billion to €800 million.[8] The company also worked to normalize its inventory, successfully reducing its stock of finished bikes from a peak of 340,000 in late 2023 to 169,000 by November 2024.[1]"
So sad for the employees and everyone involved. But holy crap KKR got absolutely shafted with that deal.
I don't know what Italy calls it formally, but Escape Collective is reporting on a reorganization for Bianchi
Yeah man, the level of adjustability on offer on the new Amflows really caught my eye. I know some people hate flip chips due to the risk of creaks, theoretical cost increases from manufacturing complexity, etc...but I am super happy to see the increased adjustability, because it is a real bummer to keep seeing bikes that are a compelling package except for 1 little geometry flaw. Plus, even if a bike seems like it checks my boxes, I haven't tried everything, and having more adjustability would allow me to try other setups without committing to a whole new bike, and importantly, without introducing other variables.
For example, over the years I've seen lots of arguments about optimal BB height, HT angles, and these days chain stay length seems to be the hot geometry debate. Personally, I THINK I like a low BB and moderately short stays, but one of these Amflows would let me try higher, longer, etc...and I might be surprised by how much better it is. And from a manufacturers perspective it seems like a really smart move to me. How many bikes do we see released that get slagged because some element of the geo is perceived to be "from 2016", or conversely, "jumped the shark" and gone too far in the long low slack progression. This geo adjustment allows the bike to morph into nearly any configuration a consumer could want, so it assures the brand they won't have "guessed wrong" about geometry trends and preferences (unless you're a flip chip hater), so they could potentially run the same frame design for much longer than the standard 3year refresh cycle.
From a european standpoint the bikes were fairly innovative.
Yes, it is a very euro/german brand regarding geo and specs. They may have not been desirable for the US consumer. But you should not underestimate the brand.
But looking at the dates above, you can clearly see when the enterprise took over and the innovation died down :D
Also the ghost freeridebike looks like a blast. Just not many occasions where it would fit an average customers needs
Bianchi. RIP BASS, CUSS, SISS, DISS and the other ...ISS', ...ASS', ....USS.'
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2026/11/03/bianchi-enters…
They bought a public company, took it private, and ruined it. Sounds like their creditors got shafted - THEY did the deal!
Yeah I meant KKR, from paying €1.56 billion to 4 years later liquidating the entire company.
Honestly makes Fox's CEO look competent, he only lost ~$400m
Someone want to layout how KKR financed the buy out? Who is actually left holding the bag on the Accell Group collapse? Guessing KKR didn't just write a cheque out of the old savings account for €1.56 billion.
Never mind. I did some googling. KKR did write a big ol cheque for this mess and they have taken a €1.1 Billion write down on this.
So the Fox guy really didn't screw up so bad.
KKR is one of the largest PE/asset management firms in the world. With over $500B under management. They're a public company on the NYSE.
Some partners are definitely being shown the door after loosing €1.1B on bikes in 4 years.
Meanwhile they're still dealing with excess inventory. 40% off a 2024 bike, all sizes available.
https://www.specialized.com/us/en/s-works-stumpjumper-15-sram-xx-axs-fo…
The S4 I would want said out of stock online, but I can get notified by email.. That would be a sick bike at that price..
Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.
For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in the world, has been around for 50 years, and has done thousands of deals.
Based on my quick-and-dirty research into publicly documented deals, this looks like one of KKR's biggest losses in absolute dollars, potentially among its five worst (ever!)
Expanding the comparison to the entire private equity industry, I'd rank it around the ~20th worst deal ever. Especially when you consider the speed in which this one went belly up. I could go dig and figure out what fund it was in to see what IRR its kicked off (depending on if that is public)
Yeah...heads probably rolled. But then again, you'd be surprised how that sometimes works.
Some more on KKR/Accell here, including detailing main players - interesting to see the head of EMEA at KKR, Timothy Franks, drove the deal, left a year later, just as issues were starting to show:
www.efinancialcareeers.com/news/kkr-accell
FYI, 1.56 billion Euros is just about 2 1/2 billion Loonies.
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