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Great! The rest of the world continues to subsidise access to US markets.
Thanks for taking the time to write all this. On the surface, commercial real estate construction and the bike industry might not seem related, but I’d argue there’s more to learn from what @ebruner wrote than there is to ignore. A few thoughts, just for the hell of it…
First, I’m surprised there weren’t more options for these businesses that otherwise seemed healthy. You’d think they could switch banks or find an entirely different lending instrument, depending on their size. Maybe it’s just easier to wind down and start over? Do you think these guys fully disappear? While service businesses are a bit different with no factories or retail storefront/ecomm needs, they still have real estate, trucks, tools, and equipment. It’s discouraging to ready this because this is exactly the kind of business that forms the backbone of the U.S. economy.
Back to bikes: my guess is many of the bike companies out there are too small to be super closely monitored by their lenders. The ones I’m helping have modest lines of credit, especially when compared to an average HVAC, city-wide plumbing outfit or regional trucking company.
Second, you nailed a lot of my anxiety about the bike industry. When you stack up the complexity and risk - manufacturing, seasonality, engineering, warranty, customer fickleness, supply chain issues, and the product’s elastic demand - it’s wild the sport exists at all. But I’m grateful it does.
I’d be doing whatever I could to de-risk and simplify the business. That's the best way to insulate yourself for times like this while at the same time bolstering profitability when things are good.
have been told canyon let 25 or so people go this week. not sure if global or US only. rough regardless.
Turns out no tariffs but 125% on China… who is making frames there? If I remember it was Specialized? SWorks Levo for 30k when? 🥲
It'd be good to try and aggregate who is making what and where, but it'd also be a pile of work. I'd also be interested to learn what mid to high end componentry is coming out of China.
This will have an impact, but I do breath a lot easier especially considering how much of the bike industry has diversified into Taiwan, Vietnam and elsewhere the last 3-7 years.
This administration is lacking clarity when making announcements, but I'm pretty sure I read that a lowered 10% baseline tariff would still be in place for all countries during the pause.
USA-China trade war will be painful for americans if it's not short-lived, China will never back down from this fight and they can actually afford more pain than the USA.
Santa Cruz frames & NOBL wheels are two companies exporting from China.
Would think that all Pon Holdings bike products would be made in China, not just Santa Cruz. Reserve wheels, OneUp, Focus, Cannondale, Cervelo, Mongoose, Schwinn.
You are correct. The 10% baseline stays in place during the "pause".
As to your second point, I'm not sure who can afford more pain. I am one of those people who believes China is in fact in a (much) worse position than tjhe US from a government debt, currency and demographics shift perspective, but Americans won't stand for the level of pain Chinese people are culturally willing to tolerate.
How does this turn out? Well, there is a greater than 0% chance it ends up something like this...
Oh no. Did VHS tape go under? The website is gone, https://vhsmtb.com/, and it looks like limited stock left around in stores. I was just setting up the kids new bike and was going to wrap everything up.
Yes no longer trading. Been silent for 12 months on the socials
Since the last Trump tariff battles in his first administration, more and more bike stuff has left China.
Santa Cruz has largely switched to Thailand for their frames, at least what I am seeing in the US. This is pretty recent so I’m not sure if it’s a total swap. They have historically been built in the skybox composites factories, who make several other high end brands. I don’t know if they switched mfgs or just moved or expanded locations.
Lots of other higher end mtb stuff is in Taiwan and Vietnam. Some brands don’t bother publishing, or including on packaging or the finished product, where their frames are made, which surely can’t be allowed!
Shimano makes very little in China, mostly lower end components and consumables.
Sram and Fox are all Taiwan (at least in terms of Asian countries).
Suntour, who is a manufacturer as well as a brand has 4 factories with 2 China, 1 Taiwan, and 1 Vietnam.
Same with trans x, who makes just about every cartridge dropper post but also sells their own line of posts and e bike parts, they are hqed in Taiwan, with factories there and also China.
I can’t find any connection to higher end tubeless tires coming from China
This is just a loose off the top of my head list for major players in mtb. Reads like a way to avoid buying things from China which is pretty sad.
I wonder how many parts like suspension links and hardware, seat post clamp, thru axle type items come from China and if they need to be declared as such when they are part of a larger finished product.
Didn't Conti start making some of their tires in China after demand got so high? I know some of my DH ones weren't made in Germany, but can't remember if it said China or Taiwan.
Just your daily reminder that the Chinese civil war never ended and that the USA has propped up the Taiwanese government since it’s inception. The US is rapidly unveiling new autonomous weapon systems tailored to create a “kill mesh” of massive drone swarms in the Taiwan strait. The People’s Republic Navy and Airforce are regularly conducting mock invasion drills, and, of course, China has a whole range of autonomous killer drones ready to go, as well.
If the USA and China can’t figure out how to play together better on trade- well, the manufacturing hub of the bicycle industry faces a truly existential threat.
If you think the Houthi’s are doing a bang up job harrasing shipping in the Red Sea, I can assure you, you will get a kick out of WW3!
My Conti Kryptotals and Xynotals are made in China. Excellent tires. Maxxis' parent company Cheng Shin Tire is also in China, not sure what percentage of Maxxis tires are produced there.
QA matters. My only in-China-made tire is a Terrene Chunk and that is the wobbliest thing I've ever seen, snaking around the rim like a bad joke. I won't be impacted by tariffs on those.
I think the bulk (if not all) Maxxis branded tires are made in Taiwan. CST branded tires are made in China.
Does anyone know what is considered a substantial transformation on a bike from a customs standpoint. I would assume that importing all the various raw components and then assembling the finished bike would be considered a substantial transformation.
In theory could you not then import all the raw components into Canada (no tariffs from any bike industry countries), setup a warehouse where you do all the assembly of the bikes and then import them into the states under USMC also free of tariffs?
Well then. I didn't expect this but it makes sense.
Did a little bit of searching on this and the USA Customs and Borders Protection actually have some rulings on this and consider the bicycle frame to be the main part of a complete bicycle and therefor the defining part for the designated country of origin for a complete bike. So if the frame is made in mainland china, painted in Taiwan and then assembled in Vietnam it would still be considered as Made in China product.
https://rulings.cbp.gov/ruling/N302992
https://rulings.cbp.gov/ruling/735368
Regarding Canada, we have a Trans-Pacific free trade agreement but that includes only Vietnam, Malaysia and Japan.
China, Taiwan, Indonesia, Cambodia, Thailand still have import duties on some HS codes including complete bikes at 13% (8712.00.00) , Lights (8512.10.00) at 5.5% & complete bike wheels (8714.99.10) at 6.5%
Thank you. I'm surprised that's where they assign the majority of the value, but good to know.
Hopefully prices go back to the old days
Interesting to watch Bikesonline expand. My recollection is that Bikesonline in the US was originally the site for Polygon, then they added Marin, now for the US they offer Polygon, Superior, Mondraker, Intense, Haro and Scott. No more Marin. Noticed they have a AUS store now, maybe they always have for Polygon? AUS store lists Polygon, Marin, Superior and Reid.
Bikesonline began in Australia, as a Polygon dealer. Marin was added not long after it came under the same ownership as Polygon.
I'd love to see Mondraker, Intense and Scott sold here by BO because it might make their prices reasonable, but carrying Reid (which are cheap but definitely not cheerful bikes) is a bit of a giveaway that they're not aiming for that end of the market.
This is correct. We have some limited manufacturing in Vietnam - think lower end, wire bead, OE type tires - but everything else comes from Taiwan.
Not really sure if this belongs here, but Specialized are putting a 10% tariff surcharge on the Levo 4 from May 1st.
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/04/16/specialized-announces-pricing-strategy-account-increased-tariffs
Their VP has also made a statement lobbying for tariffs (not sure that was the best move ever for their export market).
https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/specialized-vp-lobbies-us-government-f…
This fun is just getting started.
Brings me no joy, but it sounds like Revel may be turning off the lights.
How so? Didn’t they just launch 3 new bikes (nice looking ebike btw)?
Curious the source on this one, too. Not trying to doubt you, just echoing Camp's thoughts - they just launched a new lineup and I see zero rumors online they are going bellyup.
I also heard this news about Revel today thru an industry buddy. What a bummer. Their booth looked nice at Sea Otter and their employees there seemed pretty optimistic. Musta been a decision post sea otter. At least they didnt pull a Kona, I guess.
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