The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

Eae903
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Laramie, WY US
4/27/2026 12:46pm Edited Date/Time 4/27/2026 12:50pm
I'll just say this (for now); off the record I've heard from many sources both Bosch and DJI are exploring gear box alternatives. DJI (Avinox) all...

I'll just say this (for now); off the record I've heard from many sources both Bosch and DJI are exploring gear box alternatives. DJI (Avinox) all but said it on the record. 

If I were a betting man I'd bet Sea Otter 2027 is focused around this one topic. 

My theory is something like the Also drive system. It's gonna be a CVT or along those lines. Do run into the issue of riding with...

My theory is something like the Also drive system. It's gonna be a CVT or along those lines. Do run into the issue of riding with the power off if you're fully decoupled though.

There are already those issues with the wired in version of AXS and Di2 derailleurs on ebikes, it's actually obnoxious to work on them because of it. 

An interesting rhetorical question about CVTs and MGUs coming into this space is when do these "bicycles" stop being "bicycles"? Automatic shifting and the removal of manual control seem to me like the point where bicycles are no longer bicycles. We as a community and as an industry should probably draw those lines before we get too much further from where we are now. 

I'll stop my pseudo-philosophical ramblings here

11
jeff.brines
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4/27/2026 12:55pm

Any thoughts on creating a new thread with to sole focus being DJI/Avinox/Amflow + Future (which can be technology and business)? 

I know a number of you subscribe to this looking for a broader range of things to be talked about. I'm happy to start one if you guys want. 

20
4/27/2026 4:57pm

For ebike motor manufactures to cross over into the gear box makes sense. They look at the $800 derailleur $600 cassette $150 chain $150 chainring and $200 shifter and see a gap in their profits. 

2
4/27/2026 5:19pm
pamtbr wrote:
I'm fascinated, and terrified in some sense, by how this monster motor power thing will play out. At this point, DJI/Avinox can just go full force...

I'm fascinated, and terrified in some sense, by how this monster motor power thing will play out. At this point, DJI/Avinox can just go full force into an MGU and take Shimano and SRAM out at the knees. Also, do American brains get tripped up on the watts to horsepower conversion? Would people care more if we told them that Avinox has 2HP on tap with normal (187 watts/0.25HP) effort? Will they only do the math when an M2S bike is coming at them uphill at 20 mph. 

If I may, let's get this thread back to some troubling financial issues. A report from BikeBiz paints the picture of Accell Group continuing to struggle with long-term debt, inventory, and a smattering of issues like a slow market, geopolitical problems, supply chain, etc. Worth the read since they got their hands on some docs not meant for the public. 

I do still find it interesting that KKR's exit from Accell didn't make more waves in the cycling industry. There may have been a collective shoulder shrug from the endemic media. As a massive private equity group, KKR didn't feel much of it directly. Losing over 1.3 billion euros at their size wasn't the end of the world, but they certainly picked up a few black eyes in the finance world for poor due diligence, some mismanagement, and for ticking off some Korean lenders who put up the cash. 

lewzz10 wrote:

MGU is the next logical step for them, you'd have to think it was coming.

TEAMROBOT wrote:
The biggest downsides of MGU are cost and drag. Avinox/Amflow seem to be in a great position to overcome both of those problems. Their scale, rapid...

The biggest downsides of MGU are cost and drag. Avinox/Amflow seem to be in a great position to overcome both of those problems. Their scale, rapid development process, subsidized Capex, and direct-to-customer model will all help keep costs down for the customer. On the drag side of the equation, 1500 watts and 800% assist means they have a few extra watts to burn compared to a human powered MGU or one of their ebike competitors.

This is probably a question for another thread, but I'm wondering if meshing gears have a relatively fixed amount of drag at various levels of input power (sprinting vs. soft pedaling), or whether the drag spikes hard when power goes up. I remember Hammerschmidt was terrible for sprinting, and I know that's one of the arguments for belts vs. chains (chains have exponentially increased drag at higher input watts whereas belts are more linear). That's important for Amflow/Avinox, because if an MGU with meshing gears produces 10x more drag when you double power, it will be hard to make that viable for a 1500 watt ebike. On the other hand, I'm certain the engineers in Shenzhen are smarter than me.

I forgot Pinion uses the name Motor-Gearbox-Unit, here I am thinking everyone was talking about Motor-GENERATOR- Units 😅

I would love to see someone make a crack at harvesting energy from braking or the suspension - I figure it could be a small equaliser for heavier riders who would normally have much less battery range available

 

And @jeff.brines maybe we do need an Avinox thread, I was reading through all this and thought it was the ebike thread.....😬

3
Friday
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4/27/2026 6:44pm

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

1
63expert
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4/27/2026 6:55pm
Friday wrote:
Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread?  Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general...

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

Everything is peachy!!


(Except that Engulf & Devour are getting ready to stomp the rest of the industry players into the dirt)

2
jeff.brines
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4/28/2026 7:56am

New thread live here pertaining to all things DJI + eebs - have at it!

8
4/28/2026 8:12am
Friday wrote:
Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread?  Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general...

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

Yes, the vibe at Sea Otter was way, way more upbeat than the last three. Why? Marketing folks had new stuff to talk about, salespeople had the latest hype to sell (at full price), and product managers/engineers had new projects in the works. And all of these people still had jobs after years of downsizing, right-sizing, streamlining, strategic leveraging, and synergizing. So, yeah, people felt relief, the weather was good, and (for better or worse) everyone has become desensitized to global turmoil, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the daily onslaught of ridiculous political news.

Mind you, that was not intended to be a cynical take. I was glad the vibe was finally not the IRL equivalent of doom-scrolling.

12
ShapeThings
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Oakland, CA US
1 day ago

For those of us living in the land of freedumb who bought bikes or components with inflated pricing, when do we expect refund checks once the brands receive their checks from the treasury? /s 

(maybe those tariffs stand, it’s all very confusing)

4
1
AndehM
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1 day ago
For those of us living in the land of freedumb who bought bikes or components with inflated pricing, when do we expect refund checks once the...

For those of us living in the land of freedumb who bought bikes or components with inflated pricing, when do we expect refund checks once the brands receive their checks from the treasury? /s 

(maybe those tariffs stand, it’s all very confusing)

Zero chance of tariff refunds making their way to consumers.  Although I have heard of class action suits being brought against Nintendo NA and Costco to try and force that.  I'm STILL waiting on my refund from UPS for an illegally collected tariff (& associated brokerage fees) on a part I purchased last August prior to the de minimus exemption expiration - $180 tariff+fees on a $320 part, bought from Germany.

5
1 day ago
Friday wrote:
Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread?  Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general...

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

Yes, the vibe at Sea Otter was way, way more upbeat than the last three. Why? Marketing folks had new stuff to talk about, salespeople had...

Yes, the vibe at Sea Otter was way, way more upbeat than the last three. Why? Marketing folks had new stuff to talk about, salespeople had the latest hype to sell (at full price), and product managers/engineers had new projects in the works. And all of these people still had jobs after years of downsizing, right-sizing, streamlining, strategic leveraging, and synergizing. So, yeah, people felt relief, the weather was good, and (for better or worse) everyone has become desensitized to global turmoil, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the daily onslaught of ridiculous political news.

Mind you, that was not intended to be a cynical take. I was glad the vibe was finally not the IRL equivalent of doom-scrolling.

good-morning-apocalypse-now
2
Ob917
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Cardiff, CA US
1 day ago

I get confused why  Surrons  are even a topic in a mountain bike forum. More of a vital MX topic. It’s a motorcycle 

1
2
sweaman22
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1 day ago

Because as the line between mountain bikes and electric motor bikes continues to blur there are potentially considerable knock-on effects especially (IMHO) wth respect to access and what companies are investing or trying to sell.

3
16 hours ago

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

3
dolface
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16 hours ago
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

Data point of one but FWIW my LBS carries RAAW, no idea how they get them though...

1
TEAMROBOT
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16 hours ago Edited Date/Time 16 hours ago
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

It's a great question. My hunch is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Selling bikes in North America means supporting bikes after the sale in North America, and that's easier said than done. There have been a ton of cool European brands that have left terrible impressions for NA users because of the distributor they went through. If RAAW wants to guarantee a quality post-sale user experience for their customers, they need to partner with a quality distribution firm in NA, which isn't cheap.

That distributor is going to eat into the margin quite a bit, and if RAAW is having plenty of sales and growth in the EU at higher margins, it might not pencil out to steer limited stock away from the EU to expand into NA. I'm assuming RAAW has limited stock and short-term growth potential, because that's how these things tend to go for smaller firms (capital constrained and production constrained).

[Editor's note: based on that last comment from @dollface I checked and it looks like RAAW does ship to the US. So I guess you were just asking about why RAAW doesn't have a dedicated distributor in the US?]

2
Brian_Peterson
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16 hours ago
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

I'm going to guess money... When you say a company of their size, how big are they? 

On the other hand, with a blank check and a commitment to moving product,  there might be an opportunity for you..

3 hours ago
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

TEAMROBOT wrote:
It's a great question. My hunch is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Selling bikes in North America means supporting bikes after the sale in...

It's a great question. My hunch is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Selling bikes in North America means supporting bikes after the sale in North America, and that's easier said than done. There have been a ton of cool European brands that have left terrible impressions for NA users because of the distributor they went through. If RAAW wants to guarantee a quality post-sale user experience for their customers, they need to partner with a quality distribution firm in NA, which isn't cheap.

That distributor is going to eat into the margin quite a bit, and if RAAW is having plenty of sales and growth in the EU at higher margins, it might not pencil out to steer limited stock away from the EU to expand into NA. I'm assuming RAAW has limited stock and short-term growth potential, because that's how these things tend to go for smaller firms (capital constrained and production constrained).

[Editor's note: based on that last comment from @dollface I checked and it looks like RAAW does ship to the US. So I guess you were just asking about why RAAW doesn't have a dedicated distributor in the US?]

They do ship directly to the U.S., and it used to be pretty reasonable. I paid around $85 for delivery a couple of years ago.

I checked shipping for the new Madonna R, and it was $300. There’s also a chance you’ll get hit with additional tariff fees once it arrives stateside.

I wonder how big their North American business is and how this is impacting it, as well as the company overall.

veg wizard
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NorCal, CA US
1 hour ago
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

TEAMROBOT wrote:
It's a great question. My hunch is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Selling bikes in North America means supporting bikes after the sale in...

It's a great question. My hunch is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Selling bikes in North America means supporting bikes after the sale in North America, and that's easier said than done. There have been a ton of cool European brands that have left terrible impressions for NA users because of the distributor they went through. If RAAW wants to guarantee a quality post-sale user experience for their customers, they need to partner with a quality distribution firm in NA, which isn't cheap.

That distributor is going to eat into the margin quite a bit, and if RAAW is having plenty of sales and growth in the EU at higher margins, it might not pencil out to steer limited stock away from the EU to expand into NA. I'm assuming RAAW has limited stock and short-term growth potential, because that's how these things tend to go for smaller firms (capital constrained and production constrained).

[Editor's note: based on that last comment from @dollface I checked and it looks like RAAW does ship to the US. So I guess you were just asking about why RAAW doesn't have a dedicated distributor in the US?]

They do ship directly to the U.S., and it used to be pretty reasonable. I paid around $85 for delivery a couple of years ago.I checked...

They do ship directly to the U.S., and it used to be pretty reasonable. I paid around $85 for delivery a couple of years ago.

I checked shipping for the new Madonna R, and it was $300. There’s also a chance you’ll get hit with additional tariff fees once it arrives stateside.

I wonder how big their North American business is and how this is impacting it, as well as the company overall.

Shipping prices are outrageous in general right now. I just paid $200 to ship a frame across the US. $300 from Germany sounds reasonable in that context. Tariffs are the bigger issue I think.

1
thegromit
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Location
Durango, CO US
1 hour ago
TEAMROBOT wrote:
It's a great question. My hunch is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Selling bikes in North America means supporting bikes after the sale in...

It's a great question. My hunch is that the juice isn't worth the squeeze. Selling bikes in North America means supporting bikes after the sale in North America, and that's easier said than done. There have been a ton of cool European brands that have left terrible impressions for NA users because of the distributor they went through. If RAAW wants to guarantee a quality post-sale user experience for their customers, they need to partner with a quality distribution firm in NA, which isn't cheap.

That distributor is going to eat into the margin quite a bit, and if RAAW is having plenty of sales and growth in the EU at higher margins, it might not pencil out to steer limited stock away from the EU to expand into NA. I'm assuming RAAW has limited stock and short-term growth potential, because that's how these things tend to go for smaller firms (capital constrained and production constrained).

[Editor's note: based on that last comment from @dollface I checked and it looks like RAAW does ship to the US. So I guess you were just asking about why RAAW doesn't have a dedicated distributor in the US?]

They do ship directly to the U.S., and it used to be pretty reasonable. I paid around $85 for delivery a couple of years ago.I checked...

They do ship directly to the U.S., and it used to be pretty reasonable. I paid around $85 for delivery a couple of years ago.

I checked shipping for the new Madonna R, and it was $300. There’s also a chance you’ll get hit with additional tariff fees once it arrives stateside.

I wonder how big their North American business is and how this is impacting it, as well as the company overall.

veg wizard wrote:
Shipping prices are outrageous in general right now. I just paid $200 to ship a frame across the US. $300 from Germany sounds reasonable in that...

Shipping prices are outrageous in general right now. I just paid $200 to ship a frame across the US. $300 from Germany sounds reasonable in that context. Tariffs are the bigger issue I think.

I got a raaw shipped this month. I think it was $280 and then fedex wanted $400 for tariffs. I haven't paid the tariff yet... Not sure how to approach it with how everything is going. A friend of mine in town got a raaw with a shock, I had one for my bike already. Plus he got an extra set of dropouts and I think his was a cheaper tariff than mine. He hasn't paid either but I feel like the customs people are just guessing what it should be and making up random numbers. I got a syringe to bleed my shock off of ebay canada for $65 and ups told me the tariff was $40. Like WTF are you guys talking about this is coming from canada and it was only $65 to start with...

2
1 hour ago
veg wizard wrote:
Shipping prices are outrageous in general right now. I just paid $200 to ship a frame across the US. $300 from Germany sounds reasonable in that...

Shipping prices are outrageous in general right now. I just paid $200 to ship a frame across the US. $300 from Germany sounds reasonable in that context. Tariffs are the bigger issue I think.

Fuel prices are driving shipping costs lately, and that's only going to get worse. Soon, EU packaging regulations will drive costs even higher. Add tariffs into the mix and it's increasingly difficult for smaller brands to offer physical goods globally, especially large, high-value items.

5
rgard
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18
Joined
5/2/2024
Location
pemberton, BC CA
2 minutes ago
They do ship directly to the U.S., and it used to be pretty reasonable. I paid around $85 for delivery a couple of years ago.I checked...

They do ship directly to the U.S., and it used to be pretty reasonable. I paid around $85 for delivery a couple of years ago.

I checked shipping for the new Madonna R, and it was $300. There’s also a chance you’ll get hit with additional tariff fees once it arrives stateside.

I wonder how big their North American business is and how this is impacting it, as well as the company overall.

veg wizard wrote:
Shipping prices are outrageous in general right now. I just paid $200 to ship a frame across the US. $300 from Germany sounds reasonable in that...

Shipping prices are outrageous in general right now. I just paid $200 to ship a frame across the US. $300 from Germany sounds reasonable in that context. Tariffs are the bigger issue I think.

thegromit wrote:
I got a raaw shipped this month. I think it was $280 and then fedex wanted $400 for tariffs. I haven't paid the tariff yet... Not...

I got a raaw shipped this month. I think it was $280 and then fedex wanted $400 for tariffs. I haven't paid the tariff yet... Not sure how to approach it with how everything is going. A friend of mine in town got a raaw with a shock, I had one for my bike already. Plus he got an extra set of dropouts and I think his was a cheaper tariff than mine. He hasn't paid either but I feel like the customs people are just guessing what it should be and making up random numbers. I got a syringe to bleed my shock off of ebay canada for $65 and ups told me the tariff was $40. Like WTF are you guys talking about this is coming from canada and it was only $65 to start with...

Just a warning relative to the credit scores / general life harassment field; FedEx will 100% send you to collections if you don't pay a customs / tariff bill. They have already paid those fees on your behalf and you agreed to pay them back when you chose to use them as your customs broker. 

As a general "this is how the world actually works" explanation; even if Raaw had a brand new USA distributor, that USA distributor would pay the tariffs, factor that as the landed cost of the frame and price the frame accordingly to USA customers to maintain an acceptable margin. 

 

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