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My buddy asked this morning what I thought about all this stuff, and my response was: this feels like a bunch of marketing numbers BS, like the bad old days when one of the key highlights of a new bike launch was how much it weighed. (Nevermind those numbers were often massaged - I remember instances where there was fine print about it being an unpainted frame, no tubes/sealant, and no pedals.) The power wars feels like it's purely about having a bigger number to have in marketing stuff, to appeal to uneducated consumers... to try to distill the product down to just a number they can compare to another brand. Nevermind that the number is pointless and unusable... it's twice as big as Brand B!
Curmudgeon moment incoming, my apologies:
This is exactly the reason I don't give a shit about motocross or cars or a million other things. I 100% don't give a shit about numbers.
"Oh, but this one can do 150nm of power!" Cool. I don't care. I don't ride a bike looking for the easiest way to do anything.
Does it do 150nm of making my will to live stronger? Will it do a 30-second boost mode of shutting my brain off? Is it 1300W of power that'll die in a year and completely brick the bike for two months while the motor is on back-order? Is it now 12 mega-rolls which is the equivalent of the 47 of the competitor's rolls?
Will it give ammunition to shitheads on horses to call my local land managers and complain about motors forcing them to disallow mtb use on their trails?
If your differentiating factor as a bike manufacturer is color and how recently your bike's motor was released, I'm not buying your shit.
I thinking demand is so high for avinox powered bikes everywhere that squeaking in ahead of another brand by a few hours could potentially mean dozens of more pre orders. Looking at how fast the crestline frames moved, I think Mondraker had a good idea to get ahead of the mob with one of the few longer travel options. Last week it was 1 of 2, now it’s 1 of how many?
The motor brands are all much larger and much better funded than the bike brands. So to some degree the ebike market is becoming an emotor market. Arguably the bike brands are riding that wave.
I wonder if any of the brands felt a little bit icky joining the avinox bandwagon but felt like they had no other choice…
A sale is a sale at this point. I think many brands are just hoping to sell through a production run of something at margin these days.
I also noticed that none of the bigger brands (Specialized, Trek, Giant, Santa Cruz) launched a bike with the M2S motor today. Specialized I get, since they have their own, but the others kinda made me raise my eyebrows and wonder who was turned off by who. Longer lead times?
Evil having some fun.
Pure speculation here, but...
I think that Giant is in the same boat as Specialized - they have their own thing going with Yamaha-built SyncDrive.
No idea about Trek or Santa, but the general assumption would be bad timing as both released new bikes on TQ and Bosch just a year ago, and maybe not in a position to redesign their offerings / get out of the contracts super-early?
Is Amflow really competing with other brands? It's not like Nvidia entering the cards marketing competing with the AIB partners offering essentially the same product. Yeah, Amflow is offering 'essentially the same product' as in a bike, but I think in this case a bike is still much more than just the motor. In an ebike the motor is a lot, sure, but when you have multiple options that are far from the same, how much cheaper does the amflow need to be to be a real consideration over the incumbent manufacturers who have a lot more experience designing a bike?
Chris Cocalis mentioned in the bikes and big ideas podcast that them benchmarking the Amflow when they got a sample (because of the motor) showed that it's not the best bike (it was a bit lacking in the stiffness department I think). A lot of the amflow sales were because it was the first Avinox option.
I guess Shimano is going to be the big loser from today's Avinox fiesta.
If they don't launch a new motor soon they will lose a massive amount of their remaining market share.
Personally, I would say especially with the 2 new frames: Yes, Amflow is definitely competing even with the Boutique brands.
I've seen the PX in person yesterday, beautiful frame, better looking than virtually every other full power bike and competing with the SLs. At 7k if I were looking for a 20-21kg trail bike it would be pretty high up the list. The geo adjustments make it a very versatile bike.
The PR, which I have yet to see in person, at €4500 you keep the frame, electronic shifting and ~200mm dropper and can build up a fantastic little 22kg trail bike with some parts from the shed... Amazing compliment to a longer travel bike (ebike or not). At that price it is on par with massively reduced SL ebikes with half the battery, a quarter of the power and only 2kg lighter with equivalent builds.
Between the two of them, I feel like most other 150mm ebikes are irrelevant.
That said, I really wish it was a 160 or 170mm bike, the Megamo Reason is the closest thing to my ideal bike, but I already have a bike whose BB is too low with headset cable routing, so I'll wait a bit longer.
Possibly, but a counterpoint would be Pivot who just released a CX5 Shuttle late last year (remember Slacky McSeattube?).
I was talking to the local bike shop owner yesterday, and he said he'd been asking QBP about what it takes to get certified as an Avinox service/warranty center and was told they don't have an answer. Kinda wild that this is the second motor from them and there's still no clear answers on how to handle warranty.
I think Amflow has an office in Arkansas.. That would be my first place to check..
Please don't remind me of Slacky McSteepTube, I'm trying to forget
Last year I was in the market for a frame and I contacted them directly asking whether they’d restock my size. They said no and that they’d be launching a new bike next year (so this year). So I wouldn’t count them out yet.
I spent a good chunk of last night trying to evaluate DJI's move through the lens of business and corporate strategy. While it might sound far-fetched, I genuinely believe DJI could be making a move that fundamentally changes the landscape of the e-mtb industry. A few thoughts:
Amflow: I have it on good authority that Fox's number one customer is Amflow. If true, that should signal to the industry that Amflow is not a demo product. It's a company going after the likes of Specialized, Trek, Giant and other major incumbents. To add, there is nothing holding them back from further developing the bike and doing things like e-bike specific drivetrains or similar.
Balance Sheet: DJI's balance sheet is arguably bigger than the entire MTB industry combined. While that's frankly impossible to verify (they're private), what is certain is they are printing money, have real free cash flow, and can go on the offensive in ways no bike industry company currently can.
Culture: They clearly have an engineering-first culture in a way that I'm not sure any other bike company does. Their velocity is already impressive (iterations are coming fast) and from what I can tell, they are offering the best drive unit package on the market. Period.
My big point: this might be one of those iPhone moments where we look back in 20 years and go "welp, that certainly changed the industry." Don't misread me. Nothing that happens in the bike industry will ever be as big as even a small announcement from Apple or any tech giant. But there are signals of paradigm-shifting change here that I don't think we should ignore.
Full Substack here if anyone cares.
I just really hope they’re not sacrificing the whole industry for a few good quarters because that’s kinda what it feels like with them flirting with higher and higher power numbers.
Just read the whole thing and good lord there are some eye-popping numbers in there, I had no idea...
It doesn't seem right to me that Amflow could be Fox's number one customer with what looks to be 6 build kits over 3 models all running Fox suspension. It may have started as a way to introduce their motor, but it seems to have taken on a bit of a life of it's own. It will be interesting to see there next move with so many companies spacing the motors, how will that affect the bike sales? When you are the only one with the most desired motor on the market, bikes will sell.. When we have 20 plus bikes on the market offering the same motors, does that cut into their bike sales?
I just hope this wattage war gets settled before ebike access becomes a bigger issue..
I know this is a controversial take, but I don't think the power numbers really matter with respect to trail access. What matters is how we limit speed and whether that limit is consistently hacked or not. Even that is something I'm less and less convinced has a huge real-world impact.
What had a big impact was letting e-bikes on trails that were otherwise closed to motorized access (dirt bikes) in the first place. By allowing that, everything changed. I frankly don't care if you can put 150Nm to the rear wheel or 75Nm. Both change the equation relatively equal amounts, and the difference between the two is a lot smaller (again, assuming speed isn't hacked) than anyone cares to admit.
The reason I actually think the Avinox package is so interesting is how good it is from a user experience perspective. It feels like a computer hardware company built it, not a component company. That difference matters a lot to me. Power numbers aside.
Final point: China based companies don't usually care about a good or bad quarter. They care about their place in an entire market. If you want examples, look at EVs (BYD) or solar panels (95% of panels come from China). When they enter a market, at least in the modern era, they tend to aim at long-term domination, not held captive by short-term shareholder "value creation." - good book for anyone who cares "Breakneck"
FWIW Amflow is no longer under the DJI umbrella and has broken off into its own entity. DJI is also acutely aware that if Amflow is perceived as being owned and operated by DJI, and undercuts their customers, that their business model will become a little bit more tenuous. I'm curious what the outcome will be on this topic.
I can't cite my source here because it was off the record but it was someone with direct access to Fox's management team.
Again, I have reason to doubt it, too, just based on common sense, but if true its a big signal. Even without it, I still think Amflow is aiming to be a lot more than "just a demo company" based on DJI's size and how other companies in China broadly operate.
Source? I haven't seen anything to indicate this. To add, their address on their website is effectively DJI headquarters (like, 100 yards away). Plus, if they spin off the brand its not like they sold it to new owners, its owned by DJI either way barring some backroom deal they didn't announce and didn't tell anyone about.
That's from them, when I posed the question about being in competition with themselves. I'm not naive to think that it's a clean break but the whole Industry will be watching them to see if orders will be fulfilled on time, that Amflow doesn't receive their allocation before others, and that Amflow doesn't start undercutting everyone when they start feel the heat from western brands being back in the spotlight with Avinox systems. I personally don't hold a ton of optimism that brands like Amflow and Teewing will survive with this next era of e-mtb.
when we reviewed the amflow last year, the motor name had been changed to avinox from DJI, and they were emphatic that the DJI label not be used in editorial (assuming b/c of the national security issues they were/are having w/ drones??). afaik, it's basically a labeling difference, not significant detachment from DJI itself.
the fast charger is at 12A, not 7A
What Amflow may, or may not, have started as is definitely not what it is today.. I would love to see the Amflow numbers next year after the market is saturated with the new Avinox motors... 15 plus bikes dropped this past week?
I feel like there’s probably some physics or science to show it’s likely not a big difference.
But this just my gut reaction as I’ve had no time on any avinox bike but from what I’ve seen so far, the “eye test” paints a different picture of what the new avinox bikes are capable of doing.
Though countless e bikes have boosted past me on the trails, the manner at which these new avinox ones rip up the trail just seems to be a whole nother level, even given the 20 mph cutoff.
A little cringey but this paints a picture…
https://youtu.be/rw9Ki0HVogA?t=106&si=aCDmb2F1OT_4md9b
And with this being the new bar each bike will be measured to, I can’t help think the floor of accessible speed has been considerably raised, and that we’re slowly (or quickly) entering a different kind of unsustainable game here.
I’ve said it a couple times so apologies if it’s a broken record .
The problem for me isn’t 150nm, or 1500watts. It’s 800% assist . Humans fundamentally make different choices when things are easy vs. hard . I can maybe go 20mph uphill on a trail on my meat bike , but only for an instant, then I’m gassed . So I never do that . When there’s suddenly no disincentive (it being exhausting) the total time spent of people going 20mph on blind single track is going to be much higher, thus the probability of isssue increases.
At 800% assist it only takes 187 watts input (something most of us can do for an extended period), to get that 1500w output .
I’d like to see the industry keep e-bike assist amount regulated. This seems like the best way to incentivize responsible behavior (re: kid on bike path with a throttle equipped cruiser bike)
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