The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

swoopswoop
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5/8/2026 7:37am

Porsche have closed their Porsche eBike Performance business. Across the overall "strategic realignment", more than 500 people are losing their job - not great news.

More details: https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2026/company/porsche-sharpens-focus-on-core-business-42440.html

Pertinent piece of the PR:

Porsche eBike Performance
Porsche eBike Performance GmbH was established to develop high‑performance e‑bike drive systems and market them worldwide. Due to fundamentally changed market conditions for e‑bike drive systems, the activities of the joint venture will be discontinued. This measure is in line with Porsche AG’s strategic focus on its core business. The closure of operations at the Ottobrunn and Zagreb sites affects around 360 employees.

Wonder if this is coincidental timing with the new Avinox system...

3
sspomer
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5/8/2026 7:37am

PR about Porsche eBike division being done.

Porsche sharpens focus on core business
Ottobrunn, 8 May 2026 – Porsche eBike Performance GmbH will be discontinued following the planned sale of Porsche AG’s stakes in Bugatti Rimac and the Rimac Group, Dr. Ing. h.c. F.

At a glance

  • The Executive Board and Supervisory Board of Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG have resolved far-reaching measures as part of the company’s strategic realignment.
  • Subsidiaries Porsche eBike Performance GmbH, Cellforce Group GmbH, and Cetitec GmbH are to be discontinued.
  • In total, more than 500 employees are affected by the planned job reductions.

Porsche AG is implementing extensive measures as part of its strategic realignment, which includes the subsidiaries, Porsche eBike Performance GmbH, based in Ottobrunn, Cellforce Group GmbH, based in Kirchentellinsfurt, and Cetitec GmbH, based in Pforzheim, are to be discontinued.

In total, more than 500 employees are affected. Dr. Michael Leiters, Chairman of the Executive Board of Porsche: “We must refocus on our core business. This is the indispensable foundation for a successful strategic realignment. This forces us to make painful cuts — including our subsidiaries.”

Porsche eBike Performance
Porsche eBike Performance GmbH was established to develop high‑performance e‑bike drive systems and market them worldwide. Due to fundamentally changed market conditions for e‑bike drive systems, the activities of the joint venture will be discontinued. This measure is in line with Porsche AG’s strategic focus on its core business. The closure of operations at the Ottobrunn and Zagreb sites affects around 360 employees.

More information about the Porsche AG announcement can be found here

1
Primoz
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5/8/2026 7:47am
Jotegr wrote:
Thread was briefly illegal so I wasn't able to comment right under the specialized post.I'd love to hear some expanded thoughts on this from you guys...

Thread was briefly illegal so I wasn't able to comment right under the specialized post.


I'd love to hear some expanded thoughts on this from you guys. It seems like Specialized is ready to wade right into the shit and it is so obviously in response to the Avinox releases. The next question is does Trek and others follow suit? The reality is that other than some top of the line/brand-spanking stuff, I don't think anybody was paying close to MSRP for Trek's EMTBs for some time. I'm fascinated to see Specialized try to compete on price with, in some cases dramatic, cuts.  We already know Trek is a little bit on the ropes right now, and I can't imagine Specialized or any of these other major brands who were ordering years worth of bikes over COVID are doing much better. Aggressive move but maybe they realize it's what they had to do to extract cash out of some right-now product. 

 

Will we see any of the mega brands move to Avinox mid-term?

FullSend wrote:
Re: "Will we see any of the mega brands move to Avinox mid-term?"I agree that these price cuts are a direct consequence of Avinox eating everybody's...

Re: "Will we see any of the mega brands move to Avinox mid-term?"

I agree that these price cuts are a direct consequence of Avinox eating everybody's lunch. But I don't think we'll see big brands starting to use Avinox, for compliance reasons. The one thing that draws consumers towards Avinox (- high power output) is basically also the reason why the big brands don't use them. If other electric motor OEMs like Bosch or Brose wanted to make, say, a 4.000 watt motor in an e-bike form factor, they absolutely could. I'm told there's nothing holding them back from a technological point of view. In engineering terms, apparently the Avinox product isn't really all that special. The reason why no other motor OEM makes a super powerful e-bike motor is because bike brands aren't actually asking for them - and that in turn is because the big bike brands can't just ignore legal regulations in the same way a chinese company like Avinox does. In a lot of places, it's technically illegal to ride an Avinox bike on cycling infrastructure. Legally speaking, the Avinox motors are a liability nightmare waiting to happen.

I fully expect brose to say this is a lost battle and start going higher power/torque.  And likely asap. There will simply be more modes likely including...

I fully expect brose to say this is a lost battle and start going higher power/torque.  And likely asap. 


There will simply be more modes likely including a way to lock it in a “trail complaint” mode.  But for the market that’s crushing logging roads up or using the e-bike to replace the drive to the trailhead.  There just isn’t anyway brose is currently offering can compete with what avinox is.  Beyond that there have always been people using non compliant bikes.  It’s nearly impossible to regulate most places people mountain bike and the bikes often look the same.  We have had a guy riding a e-bike that lets him throttle to nearly 40 uphill on his ride home.  He just turns it way down and doesn’t use the throttle vs pedaling on the trails.  

Brose said it's a lost battle and sold the business to Yamaha: https://www.pinkbike.com/news/brose-sells-e-bike-division-to-yamaha.html

As for Porsche, I wouldn't be surprised if a big part of them closing this down is also focusing on what makes the Porsche brand Porsche considering their profits are eroding on the car side lately. It doesn't help to have a fancy ebike drive system with your name on it if you're not selling cars anymore.

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AndehM
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5/8/2026 8:32am

Wasn't Fazua under the Porsche umbrella?

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HexonJuan
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5/8/2026 8:36am

I read the Porsche bike bit as they figured out they've no idea what to do in the market, I.E. staying in their lane. Car co's aren't exactly poised to understand the e-mobility marketplace. If Yamaha can bomb out I can't see a 4wheeler co making anything remotely market aligned. At least not yet.

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jeff.brines
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5/8/2026 9:42am
I'm hearing this sentiment often from many companies I'm talking to. However, "Mr. Market" is clearly saying something different. I literally cannot find one Avinox powered...

I'm hearing this sentiment often from many companies I'm talking to. However, "Mr. Market" is clearly saying something different. I literally cannot find one Avinox powered e-bike to buy right now, let alone get a brand to send me to test. They are out of stock across the board. 

This is at the crux of the power-wars problem. I know in America when it comes to anything "go fast" numbers do in fact matter. Guys routinely go out and spend stupid money on a car because it has XXX more horsepower than the other car, despite the fact they can't even use it (or seldom can). 

This strikes me as similar. Why buy the lesser powered thing with a worse UX when the other thing is often cheaper and a better experience? You can always detune it via the app...

sspomer wrote:

is it that they are "sold out" or is it they "never had any to sell to begin with" yet? 

Good question

Propain: Sold out (supposedly)
Pivot: Sold out (LBSs have them however)
Amflow: Sold out

Everyone else seems to have a June delivery.

2
ejj
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5/8/2026 10:32am
FullSend wrote:
Re: "Will we see any of the mega brands move to Avinox mid-term?"I agree that these price cuts are a direct consequence of Avinox eating everybody's...

Re: "Will we see any of the mega brands move to Avinox mid-term?"

I agree that these price cuts are a direct consequence of Avinox eating everybody's lunch. But I don't think we'll see big brands starting to use Avinox, for compliance reasons. The one thing that draws consumers towards Avinox (- high power output) is basically also the reason why the big brands don't use them. If other electric motor OEMs like Bosch or Brose wanted to make, say, a 4.000 watt motor in an e-bike form factor, they absolutely could. I'm told there's nothing holding them back from a technological point of view. In engineering terms, apparently the Avinox product isn't really all that special. The reason why no other motor OEM makes a super powerful e-bike motor is because bike brands aren't actually asking for them - and that in turn is because the big bike brands can't just ignore legal regulations in the same way a chinese company like Avinox does. In a lot of places, it's technically illegal to ride an Avinox bike on cycling infrastructure. Legally speaking, the Avinox motors are a liability nightmare waiting to happen.

I fully expect brose to say this is a lost battle and start going higher power/torque.  And likely asap. There will simply be more modes likely including...

I fully expect brose to say this is a lost battle and start going higher power/torque.  And likely asap. 


There will simply be more modes likely including a way to lock it in a “trail complaint” mode.  But for the market that’s crushing logging roads up or using the e-bike to replace the drive to the trailhead.  There just isn’t anyway brose is currently offering can compete with what avinox is.  Beyond that there have always been people using non compliant bikes.  It’s nearly impossible to regulate most places people mountain bike and the bikes often look the same.  We have had a guy riding a e-bike that lets him throttle to nearly 40 uphill on his ride home.  He just turns it way down and doesn’t use the throttle vs pedaling on the trails.  

Primoz wrote:
Brose said it's a lost battle and sold the business to Yamaha: https://www.pinkbike.com/news/brose-sells-e-bike-division-to-yamaha.htmlAs for Porsche, I wouldn't be surprised if a big part of them...

Brose said it's a lost battle and sold the business to Yamaha: https://www.pinkbike.com/news/brose-sells-e-bike-division-to-yamaha.html

As for Porsche, I wouldn't be surprised if a big part of them closing this down is also focusing on what makes the Porsche brand Porsche considering their profits are eroding on the car side lately. It doesn't help to have a fancy ebike drive system with your name on it if you're not selling cars anymore.

This. Porsche is in trouble right now. They just sold off their Bugatti-Rimac stake, and they are closing down the IC Macan. Their EV investments are not paying off, with US and China EV sales doing poorly. 

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sethimus
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5/8/2026 10:37am
AndehM wrote:

Wasn't Fazua under the Porsche umbrella?

yes, and they are in ottobrunn. ottobrunn is done according to the press release

AndehM
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5/8/2026 11:06am

Unloaded my Fazua ebike at the perfect time then.  

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Jotegr
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5/8/2026 11:08am Edited Date/Time 5/8/2026 11:08am

Santa Cruz, Transition, Pivot, and Canyon among others all run Fazua motors. Are these bikes going to turn into expensive bricks when spares run out, or will we see the IP sold to someone else? Hard to imagine its as valuable as it was even a few months ago.  Should things turn for the worse for riders running Fazua systems, I'd imagine a brand like Santa Cruz, who prides itself on customer service, is going to have to offer pretty attractive "crash replacement" deals to get riders onto their other platforms. 

 

On the car side I suspect Porsche will be fine; they'll fix it with more gas powered special editions. 

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jeff.brines
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5/8/2026 4:05pm Edited Date/Time 5/8/2026 4:06pm

Those interested, full substack is posted on Fox Factory's Q1 results. I'm not going to say "its a snooze fest" but there really isn't a ton to report on unless you are a finance mega nerd like me. The bike biz is at best flat compared to last year. The company didn't do anything groundbreaking from an operational or management perspective. I made the analogy that its a bit like watching a big giant boat turn - it takes both time and space to do that. We'll see where they end up by the end of 2027.

 

5
5/9/2026 6:46am

Report from Orbea's annual General Assembly:

---------------------------------------------------------------

ORBEA CONSOLIDATES SALES AND PROFITABILITY IN 2025 IN A CONTEXT THAT REINFORCES ITS VALUE PROPOSITION

  • The cooperative consolidates a model focused on balancing value for riders, profi tability for distribution partners and sustainability across the entire system
  • It also launches an Impact Plan aligned with its purpose and values, going beyond regulatory requirements
0.- Orbea Annual Assembly - 2200 x 1000

On May 9, Orbea held its annual General Assembly, highlighting a model built on profitable growth and the creation of long-term value. The cooperative strengthens its position thanks to strong commercial performance, protection of margins and a continuous commitment to innovation and product development.

In this context, Orbea also presented its new Impact Plan (available to consult in PDF form at the end of this article), an initiative designed to structurally integrate social, industrial and environmental impact into the way the company competes and develops its business project.

The cooperative believes impact should not be understood as something separate from the business itself, but rather as a direct consequence of how value is created, reinvested and shared. From this perspective, Orbea drives transformation and progress through the power of cycling, guided by its cooperative values and a long-term vision.

1.- Orbea Annual Assembly - 2200 x 1000

“At Orbea, impact is not something that happens after business activity. It is part of how we make decisions, invest and build the future,” says Daniel Martínez, CEO of Orbea. “As a cooperative, we work with a long-term mindset. We want to build a competitive and profitable company, but also one that is useful for people, the local community and future generations,” he adds.

2025 Market Context

Once again, the bicycle industry has operated in a particularly complex environment, marked by excess supply, promotional pressure and the need to generate liquidity immediately. This situation has pushed much of the sector into widespread discount dynamics that have significantly deteriorated margins and, in many cases, compromised the future sustainability of numerous business models.

In response to this situation, Orbea has maintained a position consistent with its strategic principles, reinforcing its commitment to staying as close as possible to its distribution network while doubling down on value protection, innovation and its product proposition.

4.- Innovation - 2200 x 1000 0.jpg?VersionId=5b2btx7.TnQni

During 2025, the brand launched new platforms and developments that received broad recognition from some of the industry’s most respected independent media outlets, reinforcing its positioning in high value-added segments. At the same time, Orbea has continued working closely with its distribution network, consolidating a collaboration model based on flexibility, joint adaptation to demand and shared responsibility. These factors have proven key in navigating one of the most demanding periods the industry can remember. Continuous market monitoring and the disciplined management of a prudent, responsible sales plan enabled Orbea to close the 2025 financial year with a limited 2.3% reduction in revenue compared to 2024 and minimal impact on margins, maintaining results aligned with the average of the past five years.

The company views these results as proof of the strength and maturity of its business project, which over the last five years has doubled the employment generated, now surpassing 1,000 employees, 80% of whom are based in the Basque Country.

Looking Ahead

The resources generated remain key to addressing the brand’s planned strategic improvement projects, including the expansion of manufacturing and logistics capabilities, as well as the development of new technologies and the training of the people who make up the cooperative. It is also worth noting that nearly 20% of these results are allocated to the different solidarity and social action funds established within the cooperative’s internal framework.

2026 is shaping up to be a key year, with the potential to redefine the sector in a global context marked by uncertainty. Alongside the most ambitious product launches, other projects are also taking shape, reinforcing consistency and high standards across every touchpoint. One example is the renewal of the website, scheduled for May 10 (www.orbea.com), where each bicycle and the personalization experience are given greater prominence, while expanding the space dedicated to communicating Orbea’s purpose, values and essential identity.

Another example is the continuation of brand communications under the “Draw the Line” umbrella, a tagline introduced a year ago alongside its launch campaign and which has already received widespread recognition.

New Leadership Appointments and Recognition

During the Assembly, voting took place for the governing bodies that must be renewed every four years. In this case, members voted for the new people who will form the Governing Council and for the new Presidency. Nagore Larrabeiti, who joined Orbea more than 20 years ago and has served as Financial Director since 2012, was elected as the new President of the Cooperative.

7.-Nagore Larrabeiti New Cooperative President - 2200 x 1000.jpg?VersionId=gJlHkcreINgq81vlbkz2o.8D DTMzcW

Following her appointment, Larrabeiti expressed her gratitude for the legacy and work carried out by Ruben Gabilondo over recent years, as well as for the trust placed in her by the cooperative members. The new President also shared her enthusiasm and commitment to continue driving the Orbea project forward through a long-term cooperative vision with people at its center.

2025 IMPACT REPORT

PDF placeholder - Orbea-ImpactReport2025_EN (1).pdf
5
jeff.brines
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5/9/2026 7:27am Edited Date/Time 5/9/2026 8:04am

Some of the word salad gives me Office Space vibes. 
Office Space turns 20: How the film changed the way we work

I genuinely like Orbea, but as a dude who obsesses over this stuff, when I read things like "Value protection," "disciplined sales plan," and "consistency with strategic principles," I sort of cringe.

The company is bouncing along the bottom just like every other bicycle company that doesn't start with an "A." Things aren't getting worse, which is good. But now that there are new kids in town and margins/sales are under pressure, it looks like they are maybe pivoting to reminding us all how good Orbea is for the industry and the planet, hoping this makes up for the delta in price/performance.

I know, this is me speculating, but 1,000 people with 80% in the Basque country is a big nut on the opex side compared to what many of the other guys are likely floating. And let's not forget, they don't have anything super special on the e-bike front anymore. No proprietary motor, no meaningful IP, no real margin power.

I dig the coop structure and like I said I like Orbea and they make great bikes. But hoping consumers buy on values rather than a blend of spec/price/performance feels like grasping against headwinds of too many people and a tough-to-layoff European labor environment. 

Gulp.
 

 

11
sethimus
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5/9/2026 10:26am

nothing? they are the only ones making their own controls and the only ones integrating an electric dropper that is powered by the ebike's battery. one could say they are the first company offering their own ebike UI. everyone else is on stock controllers
 

14
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amaranth
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5/9/2026 1:50pm
sethimus wrote:
nothing? they are the only ones making their own controls and the only ones integrating an electric dropper that is powered by the ebike's battery. one...

nothing? they are the only ones making their own controls and the only ones integrating an electric dropper that is powered by the ebike's battery. one could say they are the first company offering their own ebike UI. everyone else is on stock controllers
 

Genuine question - does Orbea making custom UI, bike battery powered electronic dropper, and custom controls factor into which bike you buy, and if so how high is it on the list? My answer is I give precisely 0 fucks about how the UI looks like as long as it's not shit, and I couldn't care less about electronic droppers being powered internally by the bikes battery or not. This is what I assume Jeff means by "meaningful IP".  Imo, such things Orbea are innovating on are likely not high on a buyers checklist, in which geo/weight/ridefeel/power/price&value are much more important factors. Not knocking on what they've done, but it just doesn't...capture the wallet.

4
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TEAMROBOT
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5/9/2026 2:03pm Edited Date/Time 5/9/2026 2:42pm
Some of the word salad gives me Office Space vibes. I genuinely like Orbea, but as a dude who obsesses over this stuff, when I read things...

Some of the word salad gives me Office Space vibes. 
Office Space turns 20: How the film changed the way we work

I genuinely like Orbea, but as a dude who obsesses over this stuff, when I read things like "Value protection," "disciplined sales plan," and "consistency with strategic principles," I sort of cringe.

The company is bouncing along the bottom just like every other bicycle company that doesn't start with an "A." Things aren't getting worse, which is good. But now that there are new kids in town and margins/sales are under pressure, it looks like they are maybe pivoting to reminding us all how good Orbea is for the industry and the planet, hoping this makes up for the delta in price/performance.

I know, this is me speculating, but 1,000 people with 80% in the Basque country is a big nut on the opex side compared to what many of the other guys are likely floating. And let's not forget, they don't have anything super special on the e-bike front anymore. No proprietary motor, no meaningful IP, no real margin power.

I dig the coop structure and like I said I like Orbea and they make great bikes. But hoping consumers buy on values rather than a blend of spec/price/performance feels like grasping against headwinds of too many people and a tough-to-layoff European labor environment. 

Gulp.
 

 

An absolutely brutal read to slog through.

Sorry! What I meant to say was that the subject matter of Orbea's deep dive failed to fully resonate with the intended audience, yielding a suboptimal reading experience, and failing to deliver a holistic win-win for big-picture strategic partners in the greater bike industry ecosystem. 

23
jeff.brines
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5/9/2026 2:23pm Edited Date/Time 5/9/2026 2:31pm
sethimus wrote:
nothing? they are the only ones making their own controls and the only ones integrating an electric dropper that is powered by the ebike's battery. one...

nothing? they are the only ones making their own controls and the only ones integrating an electric dropper that is powered by the ebike's battery. one could say they are the first company offering their own ebike UI. everyone else is on stock controllers
 

@amaranth beat me to it. To each their own but I don't consider anything you mentioned to constitute a "technological moat". Another way to say this is I don't see any intellectual property that is differentiated enough in the market to the point a consumer is willing to pay a premium for it, nor do I see any of those features defensible (they will be copied). I pay attention to bike-nerd culture pretty closely and I'm yet to see one post saying "Orbea's eeb UI is so much better, I just had to have it". 
 

Just like every other bigger bike brand they absolutely have great products. What is maybe getting lost in translation is I don't see them having materially differentiated products across the line in a way where I say "that's the best bike by a notable margin" OR "that bike is so well priced it beats anything else close to it". 

If you have followed what I've been saying the last ~year, I've been suggesting this is a bad place to be. Technology is in fact converging. Its harder and harder to find a bike that rides notably better than the competition. 

Not to spam everyone, but this is exactly why I wrote "The moatless industry: why outdoor sports can't protect its best ideas" - Orbea is one of these companies where the moat is getting shallower and narrower every day. 
 

4
5/9/2026 2:23pm

Also the Ralon was one of the most innovative bikes of last year. They do some interesting stuff over there and I imagine how they’re organised has a big hand in that. 

6
sweaman22
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5/9/2026 3:00pm

Re: Specialized I think the availability is interesting.  I'm potentially in the market for a lightweight e-bike (before they apparently go the way of the dodo) and they are one of the only companies any.of my (Canadian) LBS actually have in stock. I've tried hunting for other options (Trek, Devinchi, Yeti) and there's not a lot on the shop floor. Now those brands might be able to ship one in but in the current climate I'm not sure I'm at the point of buying blind.

 

2
5/9/2026 7:38pm
Some of the word salad gives me Office Space vibes. I genuinely like Orbea, but as a dude who obsesses over this stuff, when I read things...

Some of the word salad gives me Office Space vibes. 
Office Space turns 20: How the film changed the way we work

I genuinely like Orbea, but as a dude who obsesses over this stuff, when I read things like "Value protection," "disciplined sales plan," and "consistency with strategic principles," I sort of cringe.

The company is bouncing along the bottom just like every other bicycle company that doesn't start with an "A." Things aren't getting worse, which is good. But now that there are new kids in town and margins/sales are under pressure, it looks like they are maybe pivoting to reminding us all how good Orbea is for the industry and the planet, hoping this makes up for the delta in price/performance.

I know, this is me speculating, but 1,000 people with 80% in the Basque country is a big nut on the opex side compared to what many of the other guys are likely floating. And let's not forget, they don't have anything super special on the e-bike front anymore. No proprietary motor, no meaningful IP, no real margin power.

I dig the coop structure and like I said I like Orbea and they make great bikes. But hoping consumers buy on values rather than a blend of spec/price/performance feels like grasping against headwinds of too many people and a tough-to-layoff European labor environment. 

Gulp.
 

 

TEAMROBOT wrote:
An absolutely brutal read to slog through.Sorry! What I meant to say was that the subject matter of Orbea's deep dive failed to fully resonate with...

An absolutely brutal read to slog through.

Sorry! What I meant to say was that the subject matter of Orbea's deep dive failed to fully resonate with the intended audience, yielding a suboptimal reading experience, and failing to deliver a holistic win-win for big-picture strategic partners in the greater bike industry ecosystem. 

When the rubber meets the road you need to circle back to holistic synergy’s that will establish a new paradigm, with the realization that the confluence of intrinsic idealizations is  the pathway to abundance. 

8
Goupil
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5/10/2026 4:04am

Orbea has a pretty good network of bike shops selling their bikes in my area, more than Trek/Specialized, similar to Scott. They seem really popular with riders who just wanna walk into a shop and get a good bike, rather than spending hours comparing geos to the millimetre as we like doing around here Smile

Every other XC kid has an Alma, Oiz is relatively common. Road is also a good market share. E-bikes are less common though.

4
jeff.brines
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5/10/2026 5:52am
Goupil wrote:
Orbea has a pretty good network of bike shops selling their bikes in my area, more than Trek/Specialized, similar to Scott. They seem really popular with...

Orbea has a pretty good network of bike shops selling their bikes in my area, more than Trek/Specialized, similar to Scott. They seem really popular with riders who just wanna walk into a shop and get a good bike, rather than spending hours comparing geos to the millimetre as we like doing around here Smile

Every other XC kid has an Alma, Oiz is relatively common. Road is also a good market share. E-bikes are less common though.

This is a good point, and it is worth slowing down on for a second.

When people read what I write and say, “Well, I see their bikes everywhere, they must be selling,” or “They make great bikes,” I think they are missing part of my argument.

Specialized, Santa Cruz, Trek, Orbea, Canyon, and plenty of others all make incredible bikes and people like those bikes. That is not the issue I'm keying in on.

The issue is what happens when revenue falls, inventory builds, margins compress, and the industry fails to snap back after a historic boom. At that point, operating expenses, debt service, and stalled demand start to create real cash flow problems and these business end up "limping" along (Orbea admitted they are down 2% year over year, and we all know 2024 was not a good year). The quality of the bikes does not make that math go away.

This gets even more complicated when a new competitor enters the market and goes straight at the clearest demand signal in the category: e-bikes. And in this case, that competitor is DJI, a company playing by a very different set of rules.

They appear to have a healthy balance sheet, a likely low cost of capital, serious engineering capability, super refined supply chain management, and a much better shot at scale economies than most bike companies. That does not mean they automatically win, but its a bit like Orbea and the others are fighting with one arm tied behind their backs. And I think the smart ones know it.

5
5/10/2026 7:23am
With the "semi-official" announcement of Guerilla Gravity shutting down on the other site today (yes, I know, Vital had it a month ago), the glut of...

With the "semi-official" announcement of Guerilla Gravity shutting down on the other site today (yes, I know, Vital had it a month ago), the glut of inventory held throughout the industry, slowdown in sales and potential for consumers to be hitting the end of their "credit rope", will we see more companies in the industry hang it up for good?

I've long been skeptical of just how many capital intensive, high risk, low growth companies exist in the "specialty cycling" industry. To add, the number of very intelligent people figuring out how to make two wheels go down (or up) a dirt path better has lead to incredible gains from an enjoyment perspective, but is expensive and coming with fewer and fewer real world returns as we reach a plateau of sorts. 

So what will happen? Will there be room for the boutique manufacturers of _______ out there? Can a small operation make it work in a sea of competitors (with far more money)? 

I predicted 15 years ago we'd see a consolidation, similar to moto, but it never happened. Yes, the big players are doing "better than ever" (in quotes for a reason), but there are arguably just as many small time companies such as Reeb or up and coming companies such as WeAreOne. 

I want to be clear, this is not a hypothesis that the *industry* is in trouble. Its not. It'll be just fine. There are arguably more passionate mountain bikers in mountain biking now than any other point in history, so I feel strongly we'll continue to see the sport thrive. I'm just wondering about the competitors who don't *really* have some kind of moat (which is basically all of them).


I'm frankly not sure, but I do think it'll make for a good discussion. 

Hi everyone, this might not be a fitting quote in this group but anyway;

I’m currently conducting research for my university thesis on the transition to Thermoplastic Carbon in the mountain biking industry. I’ve created a short survey that only takes about 5 minutes to complete (6 sets of 4 statements), and I’m looking for just 40 more respondents. So far, over 250 mountain bikers have already participated!

It would really help me out if you could take a few minutes to fill it in:

https://fdm.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_2i2v4mHBH3wvgii

Thanks in advance to everyone willing to help a fellow mountain biker with research towards a greener future for mountain biking! 🚵🌱

1
Eae903
Posts
396
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Location
Laramie, WY US
Fantasy
5/10/2026 9:34am
Jotegr wrote:
Santa Cruz, Transition, Pivot, and Canyon among others all run Fazua motors. Are these bikes going to turn into expensive bricks when spares run out, or...

Santa Cruz, Transition, Pivot, and Canyon among others all run Fazua motors. Are these bikes going to turn into expensive bricks when spares run out, or will we see the IP sold to someone else? Hard to imagine its as valuable as it was even a few months ago.  Should things turn for the worse for riders running Fazua systems, I'd imagine a brand like Santa Cruz, who prides itself on customer service, is going to have to offer pretty attractive "crash replacement" deals to get riders onto their other platforms. 

 

On the car side I suspect Porsche will be fine; they'll fix it with more gas powered special editions. 

The shop I work for has received word from Santa Cruz and Cervelo that they are currently buying a bunch of Fazua motors and parts to have continued support for their bikes that use the motor, so at least on that end there should be warranty support and availability but for how long I'm not sure. 

8
FullSend
Posts
190
Joined
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Location
DE
5/10/2026 9:57am Edited Date/Time 5/10/2026 12:02pm
I fully expect brose to say this is a lost battle and start going higher power/torque.  And likely asap. There will simply be more modes likely including...

I fully expect brose to say this is a lost battle and start going higher power/torque.  And likely asap. 


There will simply be more modes likely including a way to lock it in a “trail complaint” mode.  But for the market that’s crushing logging roads up or using the e-bike to replace the drive to the trailhead.  There just isn’t anyway brose is currently offering can compete with what avinox is.  Beyond that there have always been people using non compliant bikes.  It’s nearly impossible to regulate most places people mountain bike and the bikes often look the same.  We have had a guy riding a e-bike that lets him throttle to nearly 40 uphill on his ride home.  He just turns it way down and doesn’t use the throttle vs pedaling on the trails.  

Primoz wrote:
Brose said it's a lost battle and sold the business to Yamaha: https://www.pinkbike.com/news/brose-sells-e-bike-division-to-yamaha.htmlAs for Porsche, I wouldn't be surprised if a big part of them...

Brose said it's a lost battle and sold the business to Yamaha: https://www.pinkbike.com/news/brose-sells-e-bike-division-to-yamaha.html

As for Porsche, I wouldn't be surprised if a big part of them closing this down is also focusing on what makes the Porsche brand Porsche considering their profits are eroding on the car side lately. It doesn't help to have a fancy ebike drive system with your name on it if you're not selling cars anymore.

ejj wrote:
This. Porsche is in trouble right now. They just sold off their Bugatti-Rimac stake, and they are closing down the IC Macan. Their EV investments are...

This. Porsche is in trouble right now. They just sold off their Bugatti-Rimac stake, and they are closing down the IC Macan. Their EV investments are not paying off, with US and China EV sales doing poorly. 

Trust me, Porsche isn't in financial trouble. Like, not even remotely. They just strategically like to appear as if they are, for political- and lobbying reasons. 

Only slightly related rant:

The automotive industry in Germany on a wider scale is once again trying to apply political pressure in order to achieve massive tax cuts, subsidies and erode labour protection laws. It's the same old story; They're feigning financial trouble and mass job insecurity as a bargaining tool for political leverage. And yes, our automotive sector is so large and influential that they can sort-of hold the entire country hostage until they achieve their political goals. And it's not just the automotive industry this time. The entire manufacturing sector, really. All in order to pocket subsidies and erode workers rights, in the name of increased profitability. And before you come at me; yes, obviously the markets have slowed down. But not even nearly as much as the lobbyists would have you believe. Don't believe the fearmongering.

/end_rant

14
JVP
Posts
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4/20/2016
Location
Seattle, WA US
5/10/2026 10:31am
This is a good point, and it is worth slowing down on for a second.When people read what I write and say, “Well, I see their...

This is a good point, and it is worth slowing down on for a second.

When people read what I write and say, “Well, I see their bikes everywhere, they must be selling,” or “They make great bikes,” I think they are missing part of my argument.

Specialized, Santa Cruz, Trek, Orbea, Canyon, and plenty of others all make incredible bikes and people like those bikes. That is not the issue I'm keying in on.

The issue is what happens when revenue falls, inventory builds, margins compress, and the industry fails to snap back after a historic boom. At that point, operating expenses, debt service, and stalled demand start to create real cash flow problems and these business end up "limping" along (Orbea admitted they are down 2% year over year, and we all know 2024 was not a good year). The quality of the bikes does not make that math go away.

This gets even more complicated when a new competitor enters the market and goes straight at the clearest demand signal in the category: e-bikes. And in this case, that competitor is DJI, a company playing by a very different set of rules.

They appear to have a healthy balance sheet, a likely low cost of capital, serious engineering capability, super refined supply chain management, and a much better shot at scale economies than most bike companies. That does not mean they automatically win, but its a bit like Orbea and the others are fighting with one arm tied behind their backs. And I think the smart ones know it.

I wouldn't want to be on the executive team of an employee-owned COOP during a downturn. Layoffs may be required in order to survive. It's easy to imagine a company like this going insolvent instead of taking bitter medicine within the timeframe required to avoid catastrophe.

3
2
Blake_Motley
Posts
188
Joined
11/14/2013
Location
Chula Vista, CA US
5/10/2026 12:25pm
FullSend wrote:
Trust me, Porsche isn't in financial trouble. Like, not even remotely. They just strategically like to appear as if they are, for political- and lobbying reasons. Only...

Trust me, Porsche isn't in financial trouble. Like, not even remotely. They just strategically like to appear as if they are, for political- and lobbying reasons. 

Only slightly related rant:

The automotive industry in Germany on a wider scale is once again trying to apply political pressure in order to achieve massive tax cuts, subsidies and erode labour protection laws. It's the same old story; They're feigning financial trouble and mass job insecurity as a bargaining tool for political leverage. And yes, our automotive sector is so large and influential that they can sort-of hold the entire country hostage until they achieve their political goals. And it's not just the automotive industry this time. The entire manufacturing sector, really. All in order to pocket subsidies and erode workers rights, in the name of increased profitability. And before you come at me; yes, obviously the markets have slowed down. But not even nearly as much as the lobbyists would have you believe. Don't believe the fearmongering.

/end_rant

Perhaps our countries aren’t so different after all 

8
sethimus
Posts
892
Joined
9/20/2014
Location
CH
5/10/2026 9:13pm Edited Date/Time 5/10/2026 9:19pm
amaranth wrote:
Genuine question - does Orbea making custom UI, bike battery powered electronic dropper, and custom controls factor into which bike you buy, and if so how...

Genuine question - does Orbea making custom UI, bike battery powered electronic dropper, and custom controls factor into which bike you buy, and if so how high is it on the list? My answer is I give precisely 0 fucks about how the UI looks like as long as it's not shit, and I couldn't care less about electronic droppers being powered internally by the bikes battery or not. This is what I assume Jeff means by "meaningful IP".  Imo, such things Orbea are innovating on are likely not high on a buyers checklist, in which geo/weight/ridefeel/power/price&value are much more important factors. Not knocking on what they've done, but it just doesn't...capture the wallet.

it’s not much yet, but so far they are able to offer the same controls with 2 different motor makers (shimano and tq). so if this plays out, they own the interface stack. let‘s wait to summer when they release their dji bike, if that will have the same controls. that and their ability to offer the bikes in custom colors are things no other big oem can do right now.

4
Friday
Posts
28
Joined
4/25/2025
Location
Atlanta, GA US
5/11/2026 8:39am
FullSend wrote:
Trust me, Porsche isn't in financial trouble. Like, not even remotely. They just strategically like to appear as if they are, for political- and lobbying reasons. Only...

Trust me, Porsche isn't in financial trouble. Like, not even remotely. They just strategically like to appear as if they are, for political- and lobbying reasons. 

Only slightly related rant:

The automotive industry in Germany on a wider scale is once again trying to apply political pressure in order to achieve massive tax cuts, subsidies and erode labour protection laws. It's the same old story; They're feigning financial trouble and mass job insecurity as a bargaining tool for political leverage. And yes, our automotive sector is so large and influential that they can sort-of hold the entire country hostage until they achieve their political goals. And it's not just the automotive industry this time. The entire manufacturing sector, really. All in order to pocket subsidies and erode workers rights, in the name of increased profitability. And before you come at me; yes, obviously the markets have slowed down. But not even nearly as much as the lobbyists would have you believe. Don't believe the fearmongering.

/end_rant

Honestly this is kinda funny to hear. I feel a kinship with other countries who's domestic automakers wield immense political power, and use it to exclusively enrich themselves at the cost of the common citizen. 

6
hogfly
Posts
469
Joined
2/10/2020
Location
Fayetteville, AR US
5/11/2026 10:25am

Maybe this has been covered, but Spesh made huge drops in e-bike prices.

In listening to the JRA podcast this morning, one of the hosts who works for a large SLC specialized dealer said it would be better if he didn't talk too much about how this is screwing over Spesh dealers. Assuming that Specialized just did the price drop without informing their dealers. It also sounds like there's a lot of redtape for those dealers to recover any funds they're out for bikes they'd already purchased (assuming their purchase price was based on old price point). Anyway, I'm assuming this price drop is driven by the Avinox insanity.

1

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