The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

Eae903
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10/20/2023
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Laramie, WY US
1 day ago Edited Date/Time 1 day ago
I'll just say this (for now); off the record I've heard from many sources both Bosch and DJI are exploring gear box alternatives. DJI (Avinox) all...

I'll just say this (for now); off the record I've heard from many sources both Bosch and DJI are exploring gear box alternatives. DJI (Avinox) all but said it on the record. 

If I were a betting man I'd bet Sea Otter 2027 is focused around this one topic. 

My theory is something like the Also drive system. It's gonna be a CVT or along those lines. Do run into the issue of riding with...

My theory is something like the Also drive system. It's gonna be a CVT or along those lines. Do run into the issue of riding with the power off if you're fully decoupled though.

There are already those issues with the wired in version of AXS and Di2 derailleurs on ebikes, it's actually obnoxious to work on them because of it. 

An interesting rhetorical question about CVTs and MGUs coming into this space is when do these "bicycles" stop being "bicycles"? Automatic shifting and the removal of manual control seem to me like the point where bicycles are no longer bicycles. We as a community and as an industry should probably draw those lines before we get too much further from where we are now. 

I'll stop my pseudo-philosophical ramblings here

11
jeff.brines
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1 day ago

Any thoughts on creating a new thread with to sole focus being DJI/Avinox/Amflow + Future (which can be technology and business)? 

I know a number of you subscribe to this looking for a broader range of things to be talked about. I'm happy to start one if you guys want. 

20
lloyd506
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CA
1 day ago

For ebike motor manufactures to cross over into the gear box makes sense. They look at the $800 derailleur $600 cassette $150 chain $150 chainring and $200 shifter and see a gap in their profits. 

2
1 day ago
pamtbr wrote:
I'm fascinated, and terrified in some sense, by how this monster motor power thing will play out. At this point, DJI/Avinox can just go full force...

I'm fascinated, and terrified in some sense, by how this monster motor power thing will play out. At this point, DJI/Avinox can just go full force into an MGU and take Shimano and SRAM out at the knees. Also, do American brains get tripped up on the watts to horsepower conversion? Would people care more if we told them that Avinox has 2HP on tap with normal (187 watts/0.25HP) effort? Will they only do the math when an M2S bike is coming at them uphill at 20 mph. 

If I may, let's get this thread back to some troubling financial issues. A report from BikeBiz paints the picture of Accell Group continuing to struggle with long-term debt, inventory, and a smattering of issues like a slow market, geopolitical problems, supply chain, etc. Worth the read since they got their hands on some docs not meant for the public. 

I do still find it interesting that KKR's exit from Accell didn't make more waves in the cycling industry. There may have been a collective shoulder shrug from the endemic media. As a massive private equity group, KKR didn't feel much of it directly. Losing over 1.3 billion euros at their size wasn't the end of the world, but they certainly picked up a few black eyes in the finance world for poor due diligence, some mismanagement, and for ticking off some Korean lenders who put up the cash. 

lewzz10 wrote:

MGU is the next logical step for them, you'd have to think it was coming.

TEAMROBOT wrote:
The biggest downsides of MGU are cost and drag. Avinox/Amflow seem to be in a great position to overcome both of those problems. Their scale, rapid...

The biggest downsides of MGU are cost and drag. Avinox/Amflow seem to be in a great position to overcome both of those problems. Their scale, rapid development process, subsidized Capex, and direct-to-customer model will all help keep costs down for the customer. On the drag side of the equation, 1500 watts and 800% assist means they have a few extra watts to burn compared to a human powered MGU or one of their ebike competitors.

This is probably a question for another thread, but I'm wondering if meshing gears have a relatively fixed amount of drag at various levels of input power (sprinting vs. soft pedaling), or whether the drag spikes hard when power goes up. I remember Hammerschmidt was terrible for sprinting, and I know that's one of the arguments for belts vs. chains (chains have exponentially increased drag at higher input watts whereas belts are more linear). That's important for Amflow/Avinox, because if an MGU with meshing gears produces 10x more drag when you double power, it will be hard to make that viable for a 1500 watt ebike. On the other hand, I'm certain the engineers in Shenzhen are smarter than me.

I forgot Pinion uses the name Motor-Gearbox-Unit, here I am thinking everyone was talking about Motor-GENERATOR- Units 😅

I would love to see someone make a crack at harvesting energy from braking or the suspension - I figure it could be a small equaliser for heavier riders who would normally have much less battery range available

 

And @jeff.brines maybe we do need an Avinox thread, I was reading through all this and thought it was the ebike thread.....😬

3
Friday
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Atlanta, GA US
1 day ago

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

1
63expert
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Beaver, WV US
1 day ago
Friday wrote:
Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread?  Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general...

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

Everything is peachy!!


(Except that Engulf & Devour are getting ready to stomp the rest of the industry players into the dirt)

2
jeff.brines
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Grand Junction, CO US
18 hours ago

New thread live here pertaining to all things DJI + eebs - have at it!

7
18 hours ago
Friday wrote:
Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread?  Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general...

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

Yes, the vibe at Sea Otter was way, way more upbeat than the last three. Why? Marketing folks had new stuff to talk about, salespeople had the latest hype to sell (at full price), and product managers/engineers had new projects in the works. And all of these people still had jobs after years of downsizing, right-sizing, streamlining, strategic leveraging, and synergizing. So, yeah, people felt relief, the weather was good, and (for better or worse) everyone has become desensitized to global turmoil, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the daily onslaught of ridiculous political news.

Mind you, that was not intended to be a cynical take. I was glad the vibe was finally not the IRL equivalent of doom-scrolling.

10
ShapeThings
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Oakland, CA US
15 hours ago

For those of us living in the land of freedumb who bought bikes or components with inflated pricing, when do we expect refund checks once the brands receive their checks from the treasury? /s 

(maybe those tariffs stand, it’s all very confusing)

2
AndehM
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Location
El Granada, CA US
14 hours ago
For those of us living in the land of freedumb who bought bikes or components with inflated pricing, when do we expect refund checks once the...

For those of us living in the land of freedumb who bought bikes or components with inflated pricing, when do we expect refund checks once the brands receive their checks from the treasury? /s 

(maybe those tariffs stand, it’s all very confusing)

Zero chance of tariff refunds making their way to consumers.  Although I have heard of class action suits being brought against Nintendo NA and Costco to try and force that.  I'm STILL waiting on my refund from UPS for an illegally collected tariff (& associated brokerage fees) on a part I purchased last August prior to the de minimus exemption expiration - $180 tariff+fees on a $320 part, bought from Germany.

4
9 hours ago
Friday wrote:
Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread?  Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general...

Do we need a new thread, or just to move this to the already started e-bike thread? 

 

Back on topic though, @jeff.brines, any sense of general optimism at Sea Otter that you picked up on? The vibe I got from pinkbikes most recent podcast is that everyone was in general feeling less doom and gloom on the business side of things. I know the timing of last year was real tough with the Liberation Day tariffs announced just before the show. 

Yes, the vibe at Sea Otter was way, way more upbeat than the last three. Why? Marketing folks had new stuff to talk about, salespeople had...

Yes, the vibe at Sea Otter was way, way more upbeat than the last three. Why? Marketing folks had new stuff to talk about, salespeople had the latest hype to sell (at full price), and product managers/engineers had new projects in the works. And all of these people still had jobs after years of downsizing, right-sizing, streamlining, strategic leveraging, and synergizing. So, yeah, people felt relief, the weather was good, and (for better or worse) everyone has become desensitized to global turmoil, macroeconomic uncertainty, and the daily onslaught of ridiculous political news.

Mind you, that was not intended to be a cynical take. I was glad the vibe was finally not the IRL equivalent of doom-scrolling.

good-morning-apocalypse-now
1
Ob917
Posts
78
Joined
11/23/2017
Location
Cardiff, CA US
7 hours ago

I get confused why  Surrons  are even a topic in a mountain bike forum. More of a vital MX topic. It’s a motorcycle 

2
sweaman22
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71
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1/6/2025
Location
Calgary , AB CA
7 hours ago

Because as the line between mountain bikes and electric motor bikes continues to blur there are potentially considerable knock-on effects especially (IMHO) wth respect to access and what companies are investing or trying to sell.

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