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The war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz situation will have a net negative impact on the bike industry due to increased shipping costs and supply chain disruption (carbon fiber, plastic, and rubber).
Yup totally agree - increases like this only hurt everything that isn't the oil industry....again.
Expensive petrol in Norway? Naaaaah
Right now the average price is around 25NOK/L for petrol and diesel where i live, that's translates to 9,5$ for a freedom gallon.
People most likely move to electric moppeds before they move to bikes. I am still puzzled why electric scooters and Surrons are not more of a commuter thing in the US. I think in China they are.
german market data 2025:
https://www.ziv-zweirad.de/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Market-Data-Bicycle-Industry-2025.pdf
Ouch. Shimano got whacked for USD11.5M for dragging their feet on the road crank recall: https://www.cpsc.gov/Newsroom/News-Releases/2026/Shimano-Agrees-to-Pay-…
Rumors flying on Reddit that Knolly is no more, or at least bankruptcy upcoming. If true… sad day that Reddit beats Vital to a big rumor.
https://www.reddit.com/r/mountainbiking/s/X7ho0Uxg8t
https://classifieds.vancouversun.com/vancouver/notices/incorporation-no…
Total bummer.
Bummer. Have two of their bikes. Sucks to lose another small company doing their own thing.
Damn I have been riding Knolly bikes for my last 4 bikes. I did get 2 frames replaced under warranty but those were the older models.
I think they missed the mark with the sizing on their latest bikes though.
I will keep my current bike for awhile but I assume small parts like pivot bolts etc will become an issue at some point.
Just got this from Knolly:
A Message from Noel Buckley
I'm going to keep this simple because you deserve that.
The last few years have been the hardest this industry has ever seen, and Knolly has not been immune. But we have been fighting through it: restructuring costs, tightening operations, and doing the difficult work of right-sizing the business to match a new reality. We were making progress.
That progress was cut short. Our bank, RBC, has made the decision to call in our account. This comes at a time when RBC is posting record annual profits, $20.4 billion last fiscal year. RBC has been consolidating aggressively, and small businesses like ours are feeling the consequences. In an already concentrated Canadian banking landscape, the options for companies in our position are narrowing, not widening.
I'm not here to litigate our bank's priorities. But when a business is doing the hard work of recovery and its lender chooses to write down the account rather than work through it- while posting the most profitable year in Canadian banking history- the community that supports us deserves to know that. I want to be direct about what this means and what it doesn't.
What it means: We are now in a position where we must evaluate all restructuring options to determine the best path forward. That process is underway. I expect to have more clarity within the coming weeks and will share it as soon as I have it.
What it doesn't mean: This is not an obituary. I started Knolly in a garage because I believed I could build a better bike. I still believe that. The question in front of me right now isn't whether Knolly should exist- it's what Knolly needs to look like to keep existing. We have been in active development and on the cusp of releasing several new models before these recent events occurred.
Our highest priorities right now are two things: taking care of our staff, and taking care of our active customers. Those are the people who have put their trust in us most directly, and they will be at the centre of every decision we make from here. At this time we are confident that we won't leave any customers hanging: we have already satisfied the vast majority of open orders and are actively resolving the few that remain.
To our dealers: you have been the backbone of this brand. I'm not going to make promises I can't keep today, but protecting those relationships is central to every conversation we're having.
To our riders: your bikes are not going anywhere. Knolly frames are built to outlast trends- that was always the point. I will keep you informed, honestly and without spin. That's the only way I know how to do this. More to follow.
Noel Buckley
Founder & CEO, Knolly Bikes
I'd love for Jeff and co. to do a case study/postmortem in like 2 years of all the various bike brand receiverships from the last couple years and how they were dealt with.
I will say though, at least Knolly missed the original deadline to this thread. Hoping the best for them and theirs, seems like their CEO has his head in the right place.
Noel is a high quality, honest human being. Had the pleasure of knowing and working with him for many years. He lives the brand and will always do right by his customers. I hope they come out of this. Wishing the best for Noel, the staff, and their families. Tough times....
Since people were talking about elastic demand last week....
Lycra Company declares Chapter 11
Wow these are some... numbers "Estimated assets and liabilities were listed at between $100,000-$500,000 million and creditors were listed between 200-999."
$100-$500 billion? Seems like a stretch. 🥁
Sad to hear about Knolly, I put 5000+ miles on a Fugitive, won a race once, and sold it while it was still going strong. Capable, bombproof trail bike... though it would have been better with Superboost.
Alba Distribution is closing up shop. They were fairly small Western Canada distributor based in Squamish, and had niche brands like Formula, EXT, OChain, Revgrips, Dyedbro. Sucks because they did all the actual EXT fork and shock damper service work, which all the LBS's just farm out to them.
Will be interesting to see the breadth of impacts on this one. Which major bike/outdoor companies products are using lycra materials? Disruption to the root of textile supply chain is whopper.
impact will be pretty big not just in the bike industry. competitive swimsuits use it, yoga pants too.
Lycra is a name brand of elastane, also known as spandex, and they also have a few other technical fibers or treatments in their portfolio, such as Coolmax. I doubt the bankruptcy will have much of an impact beyond the immediate disruption, as there's no shortage of companies that make an equivalent fiber, both on the affordable and premium end.
They also went through some kind of default in 2022 so this isn't their first bump in the road.
It's also big enough and widespread enough that even if Lycra is no more and the company gets torn to shreds, the IP (both branding and tech) is valuable enough it'll end up somewhere in short order. I doubt we'll see much of an impact on the consumer end.
Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.
Here is the synopsis...
The Bad (mostly covered here)
• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer orders.
• Canyon full year 2025: revenue down 7%, EBITDA down 34%
• Knolly news (see above) - one thing I didn't mention is the mechanics here. Getting your LOC called sucks, and it extra sucks when your business has been contracting. I do wonder what the business actually looks like, how big the delta was (how much cash did they need) and if they were forecasting a profitable year. I guess we'll see what happens from here...
• Lycra (see above)
• Worst winter in 30+ years across Colorado/Utah. Vail revenue down 4.7%. Alterra's CEO bounced with no explanation (but I think we know...lol)
Consumer & Macro
• Tariffs on Chinese-origin bikes now stack to roughly 56% (big impact for e-bikes and certain manufacturers like Santa Cruz). That's base duty + Section 301 + the new Section 122 surcharge
• Oil is up 30% this year because of the Iran situation.
• The dollar got weaker against the euro (~4.5%) so European-sourced parts cost more. It got stronger against the Taiwan dollar (~4%) (good news!) so frames from Taiwan are actually slightly cheaper.
"• Tariffs on Chinese-origin bikes now stack to roughly 56% (big impact for e-bikes and certain manufacturers like Santa Cruz). That's base duty + Section 301 + the new Section 122 surcharge"
For those of us who weren't following the tariff picture closely until recently, can you give me an idea of how that compares to 2024 or earlier? In other words, is the total 56% tariff stack compared to 0% in 2024, or were there already some minor tariffs in place that reduce the delta?
Either way, the point should be somewhat moot as we should all be getting our big fat tariff dividend checks soon.😉
I just spun this up; gives you some idea where we might be.
Just read “Greedheads” on your Substack.
Holy hell…
Yeah, read your email blast of it. Very interesting read (and sad as a skier). Shocking how little percentage summer operations count for (<10%)... that explains why there are so few bike parks in the US.
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