The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/13/2026 2:47pm

The war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz situation will have a net negative impact on the bike industry due to increased shipping costs and supply chain disruption (carbon fiber, plastic, and rubber). 

12
3/13/2026 5:16pm
earleb wrote:
Or the Straight of Hormuz stays closed down for 9 months and there is a bike boom as people get frustrated with paying a fortune for...

Or the Straight of Hormuz stays closed down for 9 months and there is a bike boom as people get frustrated with paying a fortune for gas. OEM's wish they didn't cut back and leave a huge chunk of demand on the table.

We will see. Unlike most people in this thread, I'm not as much of a believer that $100/bbl oil = more (specialty bike) sales. It may...

We will see. Unlike most people in this thread, I'm not as much of a believer that $100/bbl oil = more (specialty bike) sales. It may drive some mobility e bike sales, but I don't think its the needle mover everyone else thinks it is, especially when it comes to mountain biking. 

Also, as a reminder, oil was over $100/bbl for most of the early 2010s and I don't remember it being a huge driver to the bicycle industry's success. 

Energy costs eat into everything and generally leaves people feeling poorer. Its inflationary. So if anything I'm more a believer this hurts the already wounded consumer and won't be a boon for anything in the outdoor industry*


*unless you are an oil baron. If you are, it'll be high times!

Yup totally agree  - increases like this only hurt everything that isn't the oil industry....again. 

4
j0lsrud
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NO
3/13/2026 11:49pm
Jotegr wrote:
Yeah, consumer gas demand seems to be shockingly inelastic in North America. I conceptually have no idea how expensive gas needs to get at the pump...

Yeah, consumer gas demand seems to be shockingly inelastic in North America. I conceptually have no idea how expensive gas needs to get at the pump before it meaningfully changes our behaviour. Certainly more than we've ever seen and certainly more than whatever prices of the pumps are in Norway and other expensive European countries. We've set up our societies to rely on the car and we'll  be damned before we make any significant changes, behavioural or legislative or infrastructure. 

And besides, if we manage to hit the behaviour-modification price ($4CAD/litre? $5?), we're going to be so hurting with the cost of everything else that people will be looking at  Amazon eebs or those crappy conversion kits to go on Canadian Tire or Walmart specials. At best, RAD sees some increased sales or maybe Trek sells that more affordable Electra. I don't think we'd see people roll into the bike store and walk out with a $15,000 Turbo Levo because gas got more expensive. 

Expensive petrol in Norway? Naaaaah

Right now the average price is around 25NOK/L for petrol and diesel where i live, that's translates to 9,5$ for a freedom gallon. 

7
iRider
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Location
DK
3/14/2026 1:18am
Jotegr wrote:
Yeah, consumer gas demand seems to be shockingly inelastic in North America. I conceptually have no idea how expensive gas needs to get at the pump...

Yeah, consumer gas demand seems to be shockingly inelastic in North America. I conceptually have no idea how expensive gas needs to get at the pump before it meaningfully changes our behaviour. Certainly more than we've ever seen and certainly more than whatever prices of the pumps are in Norway and other expensive European countries. We've set up our societies to rely on the car and we'll  be damned before we make any significant changes, behavioural or legislative or infrastructure. 

And besides, if we manage to hit the behaviour-modification price ($4CAD/litre? $5?), we're going to be so hurting with the cost of everything else that people will be looking at  Amazon eebs or those crappy conversion kits to go on Canadian Tire or Walmart specials. At best, RAD sees some increased sales or maybe Trek sells that more affordable Electra. I don't think we'd see people roll into the bike store and walk out with a $15,000 Turbo Levo because gas got more expensive. 

People most likely move to electric moppeds before they move to bikes. I am still puzzled why electric scooters and Surrons are not more of a commuter thing in the US. I think in China they are.

4
TEAMROBOT
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Los Angeles, CA US
3/18/2026 3:08pm Edited Date/Time 3/18/2026 3:08pm
PisgahGnar wrote:

Rumors flying on Reddit that Knolly is no more, or at least bankruptcy upcoming. If true… sad day that Reddit beats Vital to a big rumor. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/mountainbiking/s/X7ho0Uxg8t

rludes025 wrote:

Total bummer.

3
63expert
Posts
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Location
Beaver, WV US
3/18/2026 5:02pm
PisgahGnar wrote:

Rumors flying on Reddit that Knolly is no more, or at least bankruptcy upcoming. If true… sad day that Reddit beats Vital to a big rumor. 

https://www.reddit.com/r/mountainbiking/s/X7ho0Uxg8t

rludes025 wrote:
TEAMROBOT wrote:

Total bummer.

IMG 5611 0
19
veg wizard
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NorCal, CA US
3/18/2026 6:08pm

Bummer. Have two of their bikes. Sucks to lose another small company doing their own thing.

3
mtbman99
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Location
CA
3/19/2026 8:53am

Damn I have been riding Knolly bikes for my last 4 bikes. I did get 2 frames replaced under warranty but those were the older models. 

I think they missed the mark with the sizing on their latest bikes though.

I will keep my current bike for awhile but I assume small parts like pivot bolts etc will become an issue at some point.

3
3/19/2026 10:22am

Just got this from Knolly:

A Message from Noel Buckley

I'm going to keep this simple because you deserve that.

The last few years have been the hardest this industry has ever seen, and Knolly has not been immune. But we have been fighting through it: restructuring costs, tightening operations, and doing the difficult work of right-sizing the business to match a new reality. We were making progress.

That progress was cut short. Our bank, RBC, has made the decision to call in our account. This comes at a time when RBC is posting record annual profits, $20.4 billion last fiscal year. RBC has been consolidating aggressively, and small businesses like ours are feeling the consequences. In an already concentrated Canadian banking landscape, the options for companies in our position are narrowing, not widening.

I'm not here to litigate our bank's priorities. But when a business is doing the hard work of recovery and its lender chooses to write down the account rather than work through it- while posting the most profitable year in Canadian banking history- the community that supports us deserves to know that. I want to be direct about what this means and what it doesn't.

What it means: We are now in a position where we must evaluate all restructuring options to determine the best path forward. That process is underway. I expect to have more clarity within the coming weeks and will share it as soon as I have it.

What it doesn't mean: This is not an obituary. I started Knolly in a garage because I believed I could build a better bike. I still believe that. The question in front of me right now isn't whether Knolly should exist- it's what Knolly needs to look like to keep existing. We have been in active development and on the cusp of releasing several new models before these recent events occurred.

Our highest priorities right now are two things: taking care of our staff, and taking care of our active customers. Those are the people who have put their trust in us most directly, and they will be at the centre of every decision we make from here. At this time we are confident that we won't leave any customers hanging: we have already satisfied the vast majority of open orders and are actively resolving the few that remain.

To our dealers: you have been the backbone of this brand. I'm not going to make promises I can't keep today, but protecting those relationships is central to every conversation we're having.

To our riders: your bikes are not going anywhere. Knolly frames are built to outlast trends- that was always the point. I will keep you informed, honestly and without spin. That's the only way I know how to do this. More to follow.

Noel Buckley

Founder & CEO, Knolly Bikes
 

29
Jotegr
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3/19/2026 11:52am Edited Date/Time 3/19/2026 11:52am

I'd love for Jeff and co. to do a case study/postmortem in like 2 years of all the various bike brand receiverships from the last couple years and how they were dealt with. 

 

I will say though, at least Knolly missed the original deadline to this thread. Hoping the best for them and theirs, seems like their CEO has his head in the right place. 

8
Simcik
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Loma, CO US
3/19/2026 12:03pm
Jotegr wrote:
I'd love for Jeff and co. to do a case study/postmortem in like 2 years of all the various bike brand receiverships from the last couple...

I'd love for Jeff and co. to do a case study/postmortem in like 2 years of all the various bike brand receiverships from the last couple years and how they were dealt with. 

 

I will say though, at least Knolly missed the original deadline to this thread. Hoping the best for them and theirs, seems like their CEO has his head in the right place. 

Noel is a high quality, honest human being. Had the pleasure of knowing and working with him for many years. He lives the brand and will always do right by his customers. I hope they come out of this. Wishing the best for Noel, the staff, and their families. Tough times.... 

15
3/19/2026 2:18pm

Since people were talking about elastic demand last week....

Wow these are some... numbers "Estimated assets and liabilities were listed at between $100,000-$500,000 million and creditors were listed between 200-999." 

6
3/19/2026 3:23pm Edited Date/Time 3/19/2026 3:23pm

Wow these are some... numbers "Estimated assets and liabilities were listed at between $100,000-$500,000 million and creditors were listed between 200-999." 

$100-$500 billion? Seems like a stretch. 🥁

14
3/19/2026 4:07pm

Sad to hear about Knolly, I put 5000+ miles on a Fugitive, won a race once, and sold it while it was still going strong. Capable, bombproof trail bike... though it would have been better with Superboost.

2
3/20/2026 6:29am

Alba Distribution is closing up shop. They were fairly small Western Canada distributor based in Squamish, and had niche brands like Formula, EXT, OChain, Revgrips, Dyedbro. Sucks because they did all the actual EXT fork and shock damper service work, which all the LBS's just farm out to them.

7
3/20/2026 7:09am

Since people were talking about elastic demand last week....

Wow these are some... numbers "Estimated assets and liabilities were listed at between $100,000-$500,000 million and creditors were listed between 200-999." 

Will be interesting to see the breadth of impacts on this one. Which major bike/outdoor companies products are using lycra materials? Disruption to the root of textile supply chain is whopper. 

5
jeff.brines
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Grand Junction, CO US
3/20/2026 8:19am

Wow these are some... numbers "Estimated assets and liabilities were listed at between $100,000-$500,000 million and creditors were listed between 200-999." 

$100-$500 billion? Seems like a stretch. 🥁

11
jonkranked
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3/20/2026 8:47am
Will be interesting to see the breadth of impacts on this one. Which major bike/outdoor companies products are using lycra materials? Disruption to the root of...

Will be interesting to see the breadth of impacts on this one. Which major bike/outdoor companies products are using lycra materials? Disruption to the root of textile supply chain is whopper. 

impact will be pretty big not just in the bike industry. competitive swimsuits use it, yoga pants too.

3
JVP
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Seattle, WA US
3/20/2026 9:17am
Will be interesting to see the breadth of impacts on this one. Which major bike/outdoor companies products are using lycra materials? Disruption to the root of...

Will be interesting to see the breadth of impacts on this one. Which major bike/outdoor companies products are using lycra materials? Disruption to the root of textile supply chain is whopper. 

Lycra is a name brand of elastane, also known as spandex, and they also have a few other technical fibers or treatments in their portfolio, such as Coolmax. I doubt the bankruptcy will have much of an impact beyond the immediate disruption, as there's no shortage of companies that make an equivalent fiber, both on the affordable and premium end.

They also went through some kind of default in 2022 so this isn't their first bump in the road. 

8
Jotegr
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3/20/2026 10:48am

It's also big enough and widespread enough that even if Lycra is no more and the company gets torn to shreds, the IP (both branding and tech) is valuable enough it'll end up somewhere in short order. I doubt we'll see much of an impact on the consumer end. 

5
jeff.brines
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3/20/2026 3:44pm

Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.

Here is the synopsis...

The Bad (mostly covered here)

• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer orders.

• Canyon full year 2025: revenue down 7%, EBITDA down 34%

• Knolly news (see above) - one thing I didn't mention is the mechanics here. Getting your LOC called sucks, and it extra sucks when your business has been contracting. I do wonder what the business actually looks like, how big the delta was (how much cash did they need) and if they were forecasting a profitable year. I guess we'll see what happens from here... 

• Lycra (see above)

• Worst winter in 30+ years across Colorado/Utah. Vail revenue down 4.7%. Alterra's CEO bounced with no explanation (but I think we know...lol)

Consumer & Macro

• Tariffs on Chinese-origin bikes now stack to roughly 56% (big impact for e-bikes and certain manufacturers like Santa Cruz). That's base duty + Section 301 + the new Section 122 surcharge 

• Oil is up 30% this year because of the Iran situation. 

• The dollar got weaker against the euro (~4.5%) so European-sourced parts cost more. It got stronger against the Taiwan dollar (~4%) (good news!) so frames from Taiwan are actually slightly cheaper. 

 

19
TheKaiser
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Storrs, CT US
3/21/2026 9:50pm
Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.Here is the synopsis...The Bad (mostly covered here)• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer...

Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.

Here is the synopsis...

The Bad (mostly covered here)

• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer orders.

• Canyon full year 2025: revenue down 7%, EBITDA down 34%

• Knolly news (see above) - one thing I didn't mention is the mechanics here. Getting your LOC called sucks, and it extra sucks when your business has been contracting. I do wonder what the business actually looks like, how big the delta was (how much cash did they need) and if they were forecasting a profitable year. I guess we'll see what happens from here... 

• Lycra (see above)

• Worst winter in 30+ years across Colorado/Utah. Vail revenue down 4.7%. Alterra's CEO bounced with no explanation (but I think we know...lol)

Consumer & Macro

• Tariffs on Chinese-origin bikes now stack to roughly 56% (big impact for e-bikes and certain manufacturers like Santa Cruz). That's base duty + Section 301 + the new Section 122 surcharge 

• Oil is up 30% this year because of the Iran situation. 

• The dollar got weaker against the euro (~4.5%) so European-sourced parts cost more. It got stronger against the Taiwan dollar (~4%) (good news!) so frames from Taiwan are actually slightly cheaper. 

 

"• Tariffs on Chinese-origin bikes now stack to roughly 56% (big impact for e-bikes and certain manufacturers like Santa Cruz). That's base duty + Section 301 + the new Section 122 surcharge"

For those of us who weren't following the tariff picture closely until recently, can you give me an idea of how that compares to 2024 or earlier? In other words, is the total 56% tariff stack compared to 0% in 2024, or were there already some minor tariffs in place that reduce the delta?

Either way, the point should be somewhat moot as we should all be getting our big fat tariff dividend checks soon.😉

5
jeff.brines
Posts
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Location
Grand Junction, CO US
3/22/2026 6:37am
image 632.png?VersionId=tlP0kJYM 4Zorf33UjW76j1g1GGtd1h

 

I just spun this up; gives you some idea where we might be. 

19
63expert
Posts
187
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9/10/2022
Location
Beaver, WV US
3/22/2026 6:36pm
Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.Here is the synopsis...The Bad (mostly covered here)• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer...

Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.

Here is the synopsis...

The Bad (mostly covered here)

• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer orders.

• Canyon full year 2025: revenue down 7%, EBITDA down 34%

• Knolly news (see above) - one thing I didn't mention is the mechanics here. Getting your LOC called sucks, and it extra sucks when your business has been contracting. I do wonder what the business actually looks like, how big the delta was (how much cash did they need) and if they were forecasting a profitable year. I guess we'll see what happens from here... 

• Lycra (see above)

• Worst winter in 30+ years across Colorado/Utah. Vail revenue down 4.7%. Alterra's CEO bounced with no explanation (but I think we know...lol)

Consumer & Macro

• Tariffs on Chinese-origin bikes now stack to roughly 56% (big impact for e-bikes and certain manufacturers like Santa Cruz). That's base duty + Section 301 + the new Section 122 surcharge 

• Oil is up 30% this year because of the Iran situation. 

• The dollar got weaker against the euro (~4.5%) so European-sourced parts cost more. It got stronger against the Taiwan dollar (~4%) (good news!) so frames from Taiwan are actually slightly cheaper. 

 

Just read “Greedheads” on your Substack. 

Holy hell…

8
AndehM
Posts
599
Joined
5/7/2018
Location
El Granada, CA US
3/22/2026 7:36pm
Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.Here is the synopsis...The Bad (mostly covered here)• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer...

Just added a new post to my substack for those interested.

Here is the synopsis...

The Bad (mostly covered here)

• The factories in Taiwan are getting way fewer orders.

• Canyon full year 2025: revenue down 7%, EBITDA down 34%

• Knolly news (see above) - one thing I didn't mention is the mechanics here. Getting your LOC called sucks, and it extra sucks when your business has been contracting. I do wonder what the business actually looks like, how big the delta was (how much cash did they need) and if they were forecasting a profitable year. I guess we'll see what happens from here... 

• Lycra (see above)

• Worst winter in 30+ years across Colorado/Utah. Vail revenue down 4.7%. Alterra's CEO bounced with no explanation (but I think we know...lol)

Consumer & Macro

• Tariffs on Chinese-origin bikes now stack to roughly 56% (big impact for e-bikes and certain manufacturers like Santa Cruz). That's base duty + Section 301 + the new Section 122 surcharge 

• Oil is up 30% this year because of the Iran situation. 

• The dollar got weaker against the euro (~4.5%) so European-sourced parts cost more. It got stronger against the Taiwan dollar (~4%) (good news!) so frames from Taiwan are actually slightly cheaper. 

 

63expert wrote:

Just read “Greedheads” on your Substack. 

Holy hell…

Yeah, read your email blast of it.  Very interesting read (and sad as a skier).  Shocking how little percentage summer operations count for (<10%)... that explains why there are so few bike parks in the US.

4

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