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I remember you interviewed Sam Nicols (ex YT CEO) on the Vital pod recently. I learned much, thank you.
Sam was on another podcast yesterday, he framed PE / bankruptcy hazard in a way that was new to me, saying that PE investments need what amounts to inventory turns every 5-7 years. Kinda like refinancing an adjustable rate mortgage, where everything falls apart if someone was upside down on a mortgage when trying to refinance.
Perhaps you discussed this with him on your pod and it just took this long to sink in for me. Anyway what you wrote here made me realize that even executing well might not help avoid that situation.
Not solely MTB related: BOS suspension is in a phase of recovery, a Commissioner is appointed.
Duration: 9 years.😶
https://repreneurs.com/450412499-bos-suspension
https://www.instagram.com/p/DT3K52kjFVO/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==
sounds about american
Had BOS suspension ever not been in a "phase of recovery" (in a manner of speaking) for the last 20 years?
I am curious what legal mechanism "phase of recovery" is equivalent to, or if there is an adequate equivalency in the North American bankruptcy realm. Typically when a receiver or trustee is appointed, that's the beginning of the end 'round these parts, unless and until someone comes in and scoops the company up. For whatever reason I'm not allowed to look at that French website on my work computer so I'll have to read for myself later.
If any of those 2021/22 bike industry investors are looking to recover after getting crushed from the post-Covid sales slump, I have some mixed use commercial and residential properties that I'm putting on the market.
**and yes Jeff, I realize this prop/facade joke isn't a fair apples-to-apples comparison for bike company valuations in 2021, like Rad Power estimated at $1.65 billion. But in hindsight... it sure feels like this.
I'd actually say this is a very appropriate analogy. Though adjacent to your point, there have been rumblings of "creative accounting" that took place at one particular company (which I won't name). If said rumblings are true, it fits absolutely perfectly.
For the rest, its also appropriate but in a "future expectations were always smoke and mirrors" kind of way.
It’s a marketing expense. No one expects to break even during the event. The FWT costs a few hundred thousand to host (a lot of in kind) but it brings one million worth of marketing in Europe alone
The famously profitable budget/value commuter bike market. Now with motors and fire hazards!!!
The technical term is Potemkin village - Wikipedia.
https://escapecollective.com/layoffs-overstock-retail-decline-and-debt-trek-is-in-trouble/
More on Trek's troubles
Wish I could read the whole article. Thanks for the link.
It's still staggering just how many people though people would buy 2x the amount of bicycles per year indefinitely during the COVID boom, and purchase rate wouldn't return to the long run average.
Here's a gift link: : https://escapecollective.com/layoffs-overstock-retail-decline-and-debt-trek-is-in-trouble/?gift-token=C4JOFbx2
If you value some really great (albeit primarily road focused) cycling journalism, you should totally support Escape Collective.
What’ll you charge to find me a hybrid sienna or highlander?
I keep on thinking I should subscribe.. how "road" is it vs these sort of articles (that I would totally pay for). The recent velo shenanigans have only added to that line of thinking.
Their Member Purchase program (what they call their member discounts) are worth the subscription alone (note they are NOT affiliate links, just a straight discount): https://escapecollective.com/member-purchase-program/
Add in Dave Rome's excellent tech/tool coverage and the Ask a Wrench segment in his podcast and to my mind it's a bargain (although I've spent a lotta money on tools because of him...)
That being said, it's LOT of roadie stuff w/ a sprinkling of CX, gravel and XC; you can get a monthly sub for $13/mo if you wanna try it out..
Edit: This should give you a view of the business/industry type articles: https://escapecollective.com/tag/industry/
^What @dolface said.^
I started racing on the road in 1990, and while I don't ride asphalt road anymore (except to get between dirt sections) I'm still a fan of the sport so I'm a bit biased. There's probably less than 30% coverage of XC and gravel in race and equipment coverage, but Geek Warning has a bit more.
The member discounts are really good, but the writing and capitol "J" Journalism is outstanding.
Ok, the fact the page describing the benefits of membership is behind the membership paywall is extremely funny.
🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)
A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback Sports, 30% off WTB
Paywall from hell
Are you okay if it's 14 years old and has over 200,000 miles
Try this: https://escapecollective.com/layoffs-overstock-retail-decline-and-debt-…
plenty of life left!
So very true. Been a member since it's inception. Real Journalism. The UCI really hates that publication. They have a five episode podcast about the Covid-boom that is really eye opening.
US only or is it worldwide?
Pretty sure there are international discount codes, Escape has tons of members in Australia and Europe.
Nobody has even mentioned their podcasts, which to me are worth the price of membership alone.
I don't disagree, but marketing expenses are still expected to show a positive return over time. With the way the XC & DH are hosted there, I think it will always be a difficult proposition. It takes a solid 30-40 mins to drive between the venues.
There is talk of bidding on another Placid Olympics, and I'm sure that will be in the red, too, but also pull any dollars and attention away from cycling events.
RE: Trek, the owned retail is a massive problem. I know that Trek owned stores in the EU numbered 32 in 2021, 62 in 2022, was planned for 112 by end of '23, 162 by end of '24, and 212 by end of '25. I don't know how many they actually acquired or opened, or how many remain open. I have to imagine the numbers in the US are considerably higher.
I mentioned Geek Warning, but wasn't explicit about that being a podcast. So many great ones- Iain's "Rabbit Hole" podcast about Greg Lemond being shot was one of the best things I've ever listened to. And the COVID boom/bust was a great listen too.
They're all really good. Performance Process is mega-road-nerd-nirvana and Spin Cycle is highly entertaining roadie snark and Wheel Talk does a fantastic job telling women's racing stories.
Geek Warning is my favorite, solid bike and tool nerd coverage w/ good technical Q&A
We shouldn't really be surprised, I would say the vast majority of bike companies are mostly just marketing companies, not manufacturing, engineering or financial companies. So when a buyer comes along, they're going to do what they do best.
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