The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

Digit Bikes
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180
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9/22/2021
Location
Irvine, CA US
1/27/2026 10:31pm
There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the...

There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the distinction matters here: Rad is arguably closer to a moped company than it is to anything most of us think of as “cycling". So yes, I agree with @kperras , with the right leadership, it 100% could be turned around (depending on what they "acquired").

On the bankruptcy and the company’s brutal fall from a 10-figure valuation, this kind of unwind has (obviously) become normal in our corner of the world. The part I keep coming back to is how brands (IE: none) that transacted at the 2021 high-water mark will ever see those valuations again, even if the company were to execute well from here. 

The old line holds: it’s better to be lucky than good. And the people who sold in that window were, without question, lucky. On the flip side, the buyers who paid those multiples were buying a story at the absolute top, and none soon to forget it. Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but it’s still pretty wild.

I remember you interviewed Sam Nicols (ex YT CEO) on the Vital pod recently. I learned much, thank you.

Sam was on another podcast yesterday, he framed PE / bankruptcy hazard in a way that was new to me, saying that PE investments need what amounts to inventory turns every 5-7 years. Kinda like refinancing an adjustable rate mortgage, where everything falls apart if someone was upside down on a mortgage when trying to refinance.

Perhaps you discussed this with him on your pod and it just took this long to sink in for me. Anyway what you wrote here made me realize that even executing well might not help avoid that situation.

2
sethimus
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870
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Location
CH
1/28/2026 3:55am

How are e-cargo bikes so huge? Most of the country experiences weather 

sounds about american

4
8
Jotegr
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Location
Interior, BC CA
1/28/2026 9:27am Edited Date/Time 1/28/2026 9:29am
Mo(n)arch wrote:
Not solely MTB related: BOS suspension is in a phase of recovery, a Commissioner is appointed.Duration: 9 years.😶https://repreneurs.com/450412499-bos-suspensionhttps://www.instagram.com/p/DT3K52kjFVO/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Not solely MTB related: BOS suspension is in a phase of recovery, a Commissioner is appointed.

Duration: 9 years.😶

https://repreneurs.com/450412499-bos-suspension

https://www.instagram.com/p/DT3K52kjFVO/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link&igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Screenshot 2026-01-28 112210.png?VersionId=0PACKMIcaeIal

Had BOS suspension ever not been in a "phase of recovery" (in a manner of speaking) for the last 20 years?

I am curious what legal mechanism "phase of recovery" is equivalent to, or if there is an adequate equivalency in the North American bankruptcy realm. Typically when a receiver or trustee is appointed, that's the beginning of the end 'round these parts, unless and until someone comes in and scoops the company up. For whatever reason I'm not allowed to look at that French website on my work computer so I'll have to read for myself later. 

5
TEAMROBOT
Posts
1348
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9/2/2009
Location
Los Angeles, CA US
1/28/2026 2:17pm
There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the...

There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the distinction matters here: Rad is arguably closer to a moped company than it is to anything most of us think of as “cycling". So yes, I agree with @kperras , with the right leadership, it 100% could be turned around (depending on what they "acquired").

On the bankruptcy and the company’s brutal fall from a 10-figure valuation, this kind of unwind has (obviously) become normal in our corner of the world. The part I keep coming back to is how brands (IE: none) that transacted at the 2021 high-water mark will ever see those valuations again, even if the company were to execute well from here. 

The old line holds: it’s better to be lucky than good. And the people who sold in that window were, without question, lucky. On the flip side, the buyers who paid those multiples were buying a story at the absolute top, and none soon to forget it. Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but it’s still pretty wild.

If any of those 2021/22 bike industry investors are looking to recover after getting crushed from the post-Covid sales slump, I have some mixed use commercial and residential properties that I'm putting on the market.

How are fake backlot building facades built? : r/Filmmakers

**and yes Jeff, I realize this prop/facade joke isn't a fair apples-to-apples comparison for bike company valuations in 2021, like Rad Power estimated at $1.65 billion. But in hindsight... it sure feels like this.

12
jeff.brines
Posts
1216
Joined
8/29/2010
Location
Grand Junction, CO US
1/28/2026 2:53pm
There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the...

There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the distinction matters here: Rad is arguably closer to a moped company than it is to anything most of us think of as “cycling". So yes, I agree with @kperras , with the right leadership, it 100% could be turned around (depending on what they "acquired").

On the bankruptcy and the company’s brutal fall from a 10-figure valuation, this kind of unwind has (obviously) become normal in our corner of the world. The part I keep coming back to is how brands (IE: none) that transacted at the 2021 high-water mark will ever see those valuations again, even if the company were to execute well from here. 

The old line holds: it’s better to be lucky than good. And the people who sold in that window were, without question, lucky. On the flip side, the buyers who paid those multiples were buying a story at the absolute top, and none soon to forget it. Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but it’s still pretty wild.

TEAMROBOT wrote:
If any of those 2021/22 bike industry investors are looking to recover after getting crushed from the post-Covid sales slump, I have some mixed use commercial...

If any of those 2021/22 bike industry investors are looking to recover after getting crushed from the post-Covid sales slump, I have some mixed use commercial and residential properties that I'm putting on the market.

How are fake backlot building facades built? : r/Filmmakers

**and yes Jeff, I realize this prop/facade joke isn't a fair apples-to-apples comparison for bike company valuations in 2021, like Rad Power estimated at $1.65 billion. But in hindsight... it sure feels like this.

I'd actually say this is a very appropriate analogy. Though adjacent to your point, there have been rumblings of "creative accounting" that took place at one particular company (which I won't name). If said rumblings are true, it fits absolutely perfectly. 

For the rest, its also appropriate but in a "future expectations were always smoke and mirrors" kind of way. 

4
1/28/2026 3:31pm
pamtbr wrote:
Is the cost to host a World Cup considered Bikeconomics? Sure, why not?The Lake Placid events cost $860k in 2025 and brought in $293k in tickets...

Is the cost to host a World Cup considered Bikeconomics? Sure, why not?

The Lake Placid events cost $860k in 2025 and brought in $293k in tickets, lift passes, and parking. Hotels and AirBnBs filled up, and money was spent on food, fuel, etc. I don't think the split venue and lack of bike park trails help the cause for this round, but hopefully the area and UCI decide to keep Placid on the schedule. 

veefour wrote:
I think most WC venues run at a loss. I know Fort William was only viable due to the financial support from Visit Scotland and I...

I think most WC venues run at a loss. I know Fort William was only viable due to the financial support from Visit Scotland and I beieve it's the case that many French venues that've hosted were heavily reliant on help from their local tourist board.

It’s a marketing expense. No one expects to break even during the event. The FWT costs a few hundred thousand to host (a lot of in kind) but it brings one million worth of marketing in Europe alone

2
1/28/2026 6:12pm

The famously profitable budget/value commuter bike market.  Now with motors and fire hazards!!!

 

2
ballz
Posts
464
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Location
Ouagadougou EH
1/28/2026 6:49pm
There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the...

There’s a line between the “mobility” space and “specialty cycling.” I get that plenty of people treat specialty cycling as a subset of mobility, but the distinction matters here: Rad is arguably closer to a moped company than it is to anything most of us think of as “cycling". So yes, I agree with @kperras , with the right leadership, it 100% could be turned around (depending on what they "acquired").

On the bankruptcy and the company’s brutal fall from a 10-figure valuation, this kind of unwind has (obviously) become normal in our corner of the world. The part I keep coming back to is how brands (IE: none) that transacted at the 2021 high-water mark will ever see those valuations again, even if the company were to execute well from here. 

The old line holds: it’s better to be lucky than good. And the people who sold in that window were, without question, lucky. On the flip side, the buyers who paid those multiples were buying a story at the absolute top, and none soon to forget it. Yes, hindsight is 20/20, but it’s still pretty wild.

TEAMROBOT wrote:
If any of those 2021/22 bike industry investors are looking to recover after getting crushed from the post-Covid sales slump, I have some mixed use commercial...

If any of those 2021/22 bike industry investors are looking to recover after getting crushed from the post-Covid sales slump, I have some mixed use commercial and residential properties that I'm putting on the market.

How are fake backlot building facades built? : r/Filmmakers

**and yes Jeff, I realize this prop/facade joke isn't a fair apples-to-apples comparison for bike company valuations in 2021, like Rad Power estimated at $1.65 billion. But in hindsight... it sure feels like this.

The technical term is Potemkin village - Wikipedia.

4
1/29/2026 1:35pm

Wish I could read the whole article. Thanks for the link.

 

It's still staggering just how many people though people would buy 2x the amount of bicycles per year indefinitely during the COVID boom, and purchase rate wouldn't return to the long run average. 

6
Losifer
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Location
Sandia Park, NM US
1/29/2026 1:58pm
Losifer wrote:
Wish I could read the whole article. Thanks for the link. It's still staggering just how many people though people would buy 2x the amount of bicycles...

Wish I could read the whole article. Thanks for the link.

 

It's still staggering just how many people though people would buy 2x the amount of bicycles per year indefinitely during the COVID boom, and purchase rate wouldn't return to the long run average. 

Here's a gift link: : https://escapecollective.com/layoffs-overstock-retail-decline-and-debt-trek-is-in-trouble/?gift-token=C4JOFbx2

If you value some really great (albeit primarily road focused) cycling journalism, you should totally support Escape Collective.

20
owl-x
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Shell Beach, CA US
1/29/2026 3:11pm

That's more than I paid for my Highlander Hybrid

What’ll you charge to find me a hybrid sienna or highlander? 

 

2
sweaman22
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67
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1/6/2025
Location
Calgary , AB CA
1/29/2026 3:54pm
Losifer wrote:

Here's a gift link: : https://escapecollective.com/layoffs-overstock-retail-decline-and-debt-trek-is-in-trouble/?gift-token=C4JOFbx2

If you value some really great (albeit primarily road focused) cycling journalism, you should totally support Escape Collective.

I keep on thinking I should subscribe.. how "road" is it vs these sort of articles (that I would totally pay for). The recent velo shenanigans have only added to that line of thinking.

3
dolface
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CA US
1/29/2026 4:03pm Edited Date/Time 1/29/2026 4:05pm
Losifer wrote:

Here's a gift link: : https://escapecollective.com/layoffs-overstock-retail-decline-and-debt-trek-is-in-trouble/?gift-token=C4JOFbx2

If you value some really great (albeit primarily road focused) cycling journalism, you should totally support Escape Collective.

sweaman22 wrote:
I keep on thinking I should subscribe.. how "road" is it vs these sort of articles (that I would totally pay for). The recent velo shenanigans...

I keep on thinking I should subscribe.. how "road" is it vs these sort of articles (that I would totally pay for). The recent velo shenanigans have only added to that line of thinking.

Their Member Purchase program (what they call their member discounts) are worth the subscription alone (note they are NOT affiliate links, just a straight discount): https://escapecollective.com/member-purchase-program/

Add in Dave Rome's excellent tech/tool coverage and the Ask a Wrench segment in his podcast and to my mind it's a bargain (although I've spent a lotta money on tools because of him...)

That being said, it's LOT of roadie stuff w/ a sprinkling of CX, gravel and XC; you can get a monthly sub for $13/mo if you wanna try it out..

Edit: This should give you a view of the business/industry type articles: https://escapecollective.com/tag/industry/

7
Losifer
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Location
Sandia Park, NM US
1/29/2026 5:06pm
Losifer wrote:

Here's a gift link: : https://escapecollective.com/layoffs-overstock-retail-decline-and-debt-trek-is-in-trouble/?gift-token=C4JOFbx2

If you value some really great (albeit primarily road focused) cycling journalism, you should totally support Escape Collective.

sweaman22 wrote:
I keep on thinking I should subscribe.. how "road" is it vs these sort of articles (that I would totally pay for). The recent velo shenanigans...

I keep on thinking I should subscribe.. how "road" is it vs these sort of articles (that I would totally pay for). The recent velo shenanigans have only added to that line of thinking.

dolface wrote:
Their Member Purchase program (what they call their member discounts) are worth the subscription alone (note they are NOT affiliate links, just a straight discount): https://escapecollective.com/member-purchase-program/...

Their Member Purchase program (what they call their member discounts) are worth the subscription alone (note they are NOT affiliate links, just a straight discount): https://escapecollective.com/member-purchase-program/

Add in Dave Rome's excellent tech/tool coverage and the Ask a Wrench segment in his podcast and to my mind it's a bargain (although I've spent a lotta money on tools because of him...)

That being said, it's LOT of roadie stuff w/ a sprinkling of CX, gravel and XC; you can get a monthly sub for $13/mo if you wanna try it out..

Edit: This should give you a view of the business/industry type articles: https://escapecollective.com/tag/industry/

^What @dolface said.^

I started racing on the road in 1990, and while I don't ride asphalt road anymore (except to get between dirt sections) I'm still a fan of the sport so I'm a bit biased. There's probably less than 30% coverage of XC and gravel in race and equipment coverage, but Geek Warning has a bit more. 

The member discounts are really good, but the writing and capitol "J" Journalism is outstanding.

 

3
Jotegr
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Interior, BC CA
1/29/2026 5:25pm Edited Date/Time 1/29/2026 5:34pm

Ok, the fact the page describing the benefits of membership is behind the membership paywall is extremely funny. 

7
dolface
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CA US
1/29/2026 6:08pm
Jotegr wrote:

Ok, the fact the page describing the benefits of membership is behind the membership paywall is extremely funny. 

🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)

A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback Sports, 30% off WTB

2
63expert
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187
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Location
Beaver, WV US
1/29/2026 6:32pm
Losifer wrote:
Wish I could read the whole article. Thanks for the link. It's still staggering just how many people though people would buy 2x the amount of bicycles...

Wish I could read the whole article. Thanks for the link.

 

It's still staggering just how many people though people would buy 2x the amount of bicycles per year indefinitely during the COVID boom, and purchase rate wouldn't return to the long run average. 

Paywall from hell

1
1/29/2026 6:57pm
owl-x wrote:

What’ll you charge to find me a hybrid sienna or highlander? 

 

Are you okay if it's 14 years old and has over 200,000 miles

2
owl-x
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Shell Beach, CA US
1/29/2026 8:12pm

Are you okay if it's 14 years old and has over 200,000 miles

plenty of life left!

1
kalle5987
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4
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9/14/2024
Location
Anderstorp SE
1/29/2026 9:10pm
Losifer wrote:
^What @dolface said.^I started racing on the road in 1990, and while I don't ride asphalt road anymore (except to get between dirt sections) I'm still...

^What @dolface said.^

I started racing on the road in 1990, and while I don't ride asphalt road anymore (except to get between dirt sections) I'm still a fan of the sport so I'm a bit biased. There's probably less than 30% coverage of XC and gravel in race and equipment coverage, but Geek Warning has a bit more. 

The member discounts are really good, but the writing and capitol "J" Journalism is outstanding.

 

So very true. Been a member since it's inception. Real Journalism. The UCI really hates that publication. They have a five episode podcast about the Covid-boom that is really eye opening. 

4
Primoz
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4519
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Location
SI
1/30/2026 12:38am
Jotegr wrote:

Ok, the fact the page describing the benefits of membership is behind the membership paywall is extremely funny. 

dolface wrote:
🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback...

🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)

A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback Sports, 30% off WTB

US only or is it worldwide? 

ZAKBROWN!
Posts
97
Joined
8/28/2009
Location
Salt Lake City, UT US
1/30/2026 2:18am
Jotegr wrote:

Ok, the fact the page describing the benefits of membership is behind the membership paywall is extremely funny. 

dolface wrote:
🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback...

🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)

A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback Sports, 30% off WTB

Primoz wrote:

US only or is it worldwide? 

Pretty sure there are international discount codes, Escape has tons of members in Australia and Europe. 

Nobody has even mentioned their podcasts, which to me are worth the price of membership alone.  

6
pamtbr
Posts
58
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Location
PA, WA US
1/30/2026 5:21am
pamtbr wrote:
Is the cost to host a World Cup considered Bikeconomics? Sure, why not?The Lake Placid events cost $860k in 2025 and brought in $293k in tickets...

Is the cost to host a World Cup considered Bikeconomics? Sure, why not?

The Lake Placid events cost $860k in 2025 and brought in $293k in tickets, lift passes, and parking. Hotels and AirBnBs filled up, and money was spent on food, fuel, etc. I don't think the split venue and lack of bike park trails help the cause for this round, but hopefully the area and UCI decide to keep Placid on the schedule. 

veefour wrote:
I think most WC venues run at a loss. I know Fort William was only viable due to the financial support from Visit Scotland and I...

I think most WC venues run at a loss. I know Fort William was only viable due to the financial support from Visit Scotland and I beieve it's the case that many French venues that've hosted were heavily reliant on help from their local tourist board.

It’s a marketing expense. No one expects to break even during the event. The FWT costs a few hundred thousand to host (a lot of in...

It’s a marketing expense. No one expects to break even during the event. The FWT costs a few hundred thousand to host (a lot of in kind) but it brings one million worth of marketing in Europe alone

I don't disagree, but marketing expenses are still expected to show a positive return over time. With the way the XC & DH are hosted there, I think it will always be a difficult proposition. It takes a solid 30-40 mins to drive between the venues.

There is talk of bidding on another Placid Olympics, and I'm sure that will be in the red, too, but also pull any dollars and attention away from cycling events.

2
pamtbr
Posts
58
Joined
10/23/2024
Location
PA, WA US
1/30/2026 5:36am

RE: Trek, the owned retail is a massive problem. I know that Trek owned stores in the EU numbered 32 in 2021, 62 in 2022, was planned for 112 by end of '23, 162 by end of '24, and 212 by end of '25. I don't know how many they actually acquired or opened, or how many remain open. I have to imagine the numbers in the US are considerably higher. 

4
Losifer
Posts
407
Joined
9/12/2017
Location
Sandia Park, NM US
1/30/2026 7:22am
dolface wrote:
🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback...

🤣 (Just realized that page is also where you get the discount code, so I guess it makes sense)

A few: 25% off Cane Creek and Feedback Sports, 30% off WTB

Primoz wrote:

US only or is it worldwide? 

ZAKBROWN! wrote:
Pretty sure there are international discount codes, Escape has tons of members in Australia and Europe. Nobody has even mentioned their podcasts, which to me are worth...

Pretty sure there are international discount codes, Escape has tons of members in Australia and Europe. 

Nobody has even mentioned their podcasts, which to me are worth the price of membership alone.  

I mentioned Geek Warning, but wasn't explicit about that being a podcast. So many great ones- Iain's "Rabbit Hole" podcast about Greg Lemond being shot was one of the best things I've ever listened to. And the COVID boom/bust was a great listen too.

4
dolface
Posts
1657
Joined
10/26/2015
Location
CA US
1/30/2026 8:27am
Primoz wrote:

US only or is it worldwide? 

ZAKBROWN! wrote:
Pretty sure there are international discount codes, Escape has tons of members in Australia and Europe. Nobody has even mentioned their podcasts, which to me are worth...

Pretty sure there are international discount codes, Escape has tons of members in Australia and Europe. 

Nobody has even mentioned their podcasts, which to me are worth the price of membership alone.  

Losifer wrote:
I mentioned Geek Warning, but wasn't explicit about that being a podcast. So many great ones- Iain's "Rabbit Hole" podcast about Greg Lemond being shot was...

I mentioned Geek Warning, but wasn't explicit about that being a podcast. So many great ones- Iain's "Rabbit Hole" podcast about Greg Lemond being shot was one of the best things I've ever listened to. And the COVID boom/bust was a great listen too.

They're all really good. Performance Process is mega-road-nerd-nirvana and Spin Cycle is highly entertaining roadie snark and Wheel Talk does a fantastic job telling women's racing stories.

Geek Warning is my favorite, solid bike and tool nerd coverage w/ good technical Q&A

3
whitesq
Posts
73
Joined
8/1/2014
Location
FC, CO US
1/30/2026 8:43am Edited Date/Time 1/30/2026 8:43am
I'd actually say this is a very appropriate analogy. Though adjacent to your point, there have been rumblings of "creative accounting" that took place at one...

I'd actually say this is a very appropriate analogy. Though adjacent to your point, there have been rumblings of "creative accounting" that took place at one particular company (which I won't name). If said rumblings are true, it fits absolutely perfectly. 

For the rest, its also appropriate but in a "future expectations were always smoke and mirrors" kind of way. 

We shouldn't really be surprised, I would say the vast majority of bike companies are mostly just marketing companies, not manufacturing, engineering or financial companies. So when a buyer comes along, they're going to do what they do best.    

3

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