Hello Vital MTB Visitor,
We’re conducting a survey and would appreciate your input. Your answers will help Vital and the MTB industry better understand what riders like you want. Survey results will be used to recognize top brands. Make your voice heard!
Five lucky people will be selected at random to win a Vital MTB t-shirt.
Thanks in advance,
The Vital MTB Crew
Ten Myths About the U.S. Tax System - Freakonomics
I highly recommend this one.
"Small businesses on a growth path are getting slaughtered"
That's the intention. Eliminate marketplace competitors either through attrition or acquisition. The largest companies have learned lately that politically-assisted attrition with a side of insider knowledge is cheaper than acquisition so that's what the plan is.
In this new order you have coming in, do you have new products or a restocking of the products currently listed on your website? The jerseys look like good options for me and I'm always down to exchange money for goods with a person rather than shareholders.
The bike industry is just too small and stuck in this mess. It's not a concern for anyone but those in it. US Brands are dying left and right currently due to the vertically integrated fashion market fueled by social media trends controlled by the country that owns the factories...
No one wants to hear this but there are too many bike brands and the bubble burst and many will be lost. This isn't anything new. It happened in the 2005 - 2009 era with action sports. Reality is what it is. There's not enough consumer dollars in bike to support the number of brands large or small currently.
So they got the math wrong? 🤣
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/06/trump-tariffs-error-aei
This is a pretty neat website, thanks for making this!
One thought, would it be possible to weight or further segment bicycle brands into 'strictly cycling' and 'somewhat cycling', e.g. Giant is really only a bike company whereas Thule makes other, non-bike related products?
We are also at the 5 year 'anniversary' of global shutdowns, so some of those projections are going to start looking weird as we go through the initial market shock into boom (for outdoor sports, anyways).
As for price scraping - you could take some of the brand's biggest products (e.g. Stumpjumper/Trance in a mid-tier build, an entry level hardtail, and similar with high-mid and entry level drop-bar) and the pricing directly from the website. That would give some indication of what the brand thinks of the current market value. You could also compare this to some large webstores and get a proxy of brand price vs street price, which may indicate that the perceived value is lower or another point in the chain (e.g. stores or warehouses) are in need of cash (vs inventory). That would need to be regional as each market is different and has different regulations on pricing. As for Shimano, groupset prices may be hard to find so possibly a wear item vs 'permanent' one could be interesting, like an XT level chain vs XT cranks.
What's equal though? Is it a direct % or is it per capita? Lets use Canadian dairy for fun since it's apparently a big issue tariffs wise. If the US produces so much of a product that it would wipe out a large portion of the industry in the country importing because the US was undercutting that country's production because of a lack of industrial control and because if that, larger volume, that hurts that country's industry just to do trade with the US. If it was a per capita, maybe that makes sense, but as it's been mentioned, tariffs should be used to protect a country's industries which in this case it's being used for that.
Scraping prices will be tricky for certain things where oddball sizes tend to hang around for years and get marked down lower and lower (like size XS or XXL complete bikes). And you'll need to do some spot checking on whatever you use to scrape those, because I know from shopping experience that even when you plug a very specific size into search, lots of websites (including DDG & Google Shop) will return bogus results (show low prices for stuff that's not actually in stock) just to drive clicks.
Unfortunately you are right, it is very challenging. Few thoughts here...
1) I'll do a basket of goods, not just one item. I would like to do 4-5 items from a few different sports to make this really valuable (and let the user drill down if they care to). Problem here is what items? If I picked a bike, what level bike (build)? I almost want to do something really basic like ODI grips, Maxxis Tires etc, but there are problems there, too. Or maybe I add more items to my basket of goods? If the scraper is working well, this shouldn't be hard.
2) I'll have to grab pricing from the manufactures website, and that website has to be e-comm enabled (like Specialized). Otherwise, there are way too many variables that can fuck with this.
3) Ultimately, it may not be all that meaningful of an indicator. It'd be really fun to have access to sales data from a big retailer (like Jensen), but clearly I won't.
Are there any other "alternative" datasets that would be fun to aggregate or scrape? Google Keywords? Number of bikes listed in PinkBike classifieds? I honestly am kinda reaching but I am not scared to try to scrape data, clean it, and show it in a meaningful way.
Good ideas here; I may just pull Thule entirely. They really don't belong in that group. Love your thoughts on the scraping side of this, too. Scratching my head on that front here...I'll figure something out. For now, I need to get the news usefull, its way off. Also, I need to carve a segment of the website out for Robot's post of the year. (I'm not fully kidding...)
One thing I want to flag is the possibility of a tariff-evoked credit crunch in the outdoor industry. Though no business is immune, I'd argue businesses with seasonality, long inventory turns (most outdoor industry stuff), and purveyors of elastic goods are extra exposed to the problem. In short, if we see continued softness with respect to consumer spending, prices go up a material amount due to tariffs, the COVID (inventory) hangover lingers, and companies are unable to stay within the covenants of their debt instruments, we might see a whole other level of pain, and this could come to fruition relatively quickly.
I can give a real-world example if anyone cares to play along at home, but the root of this comes down to the rules a company must operate within (covenants) as it pertains to their debt obligations (i.e. line of credit). If you stray from these covenants, which usually have to do with some measure of profitability and cash flow, you will be forced to come up with cash (either internally or from outside sources). The likelihood of you coming up with said capital is going to be low in this environment, which will result in the bank pulling the plug on your line (game over for a seasonal business) or tightening their leash, which may mean you have to lay people off, cut way back, and only focus on a limited number of products.
So what will happen? I don't know. I really have no idea how crazy Trump in fact is. This all hinges on how long the tariff card remains in play and how quickly things are rolled backwards. I can say if this persists for a long period of time, we're going to be living in a very different world than we are currently living in.
I realize that sounds a bit hyperbolic, and if history is a guide we'll find a way out of this that is amicable, but there likely will be some near-term pain.
If you are a business in this situation, I'd consider approaching your bank sooner rather than later.
Anyone is welcome to hit me up, too, if they aren't sure what the hell I'm talking about.
If they're a negotiation tool at all, they don't come from a place of good faith. But that's par for the course. Pun not intended.
The USA will always have a lopsided trade balance. It's the biggest consumer market in the world. In the case of China and the USA, think about how many things each produces that the other doesn't (Edit: this lost a bit of its meaning while I was editing it. Also think about how many things each produces that the other wants, but can't/won't/doesn't produce itself economically).
But I suppose one way to reduce an import imbalance is to take the world's richest economy and make it no longer the world's richest economy.
Well. No one knows how the egos will go, but i suspect they will go in favor of equal trade and reposition the US as the strongest economy in the world. This is a "flex" as the kids say. Trump has balls. He's doing his Trump thing. And his voter base is supporting it and the opposition (90% government employees) are doing their protest because if he wins. It's end game for them.
I am not a person. Just stating how it is. Or... there is one other possibility. WW3 with weapons not social media and money... All is on the table. How's bitcoin and gold doing? All indicators. Popcorn popped.
But the US is already the strongest economy in the world lol.
1) some random ideas for basket items: Maxxis Assegai 29x2.5 MG EXO+, Five Ten Freerider Pro size 10, 1 liter of Stan's Original sealant, Fox 38 Factory 29 170mm, Shimano XT 4 piston brakes, OneUp 31.6 x 180mm dropper post (or their 35mm rise carbon bars). I'd think you want a mix of consumable items (like tires & sealant) and upgrade items that are popular choices for people looking to extend the life of their existing bike (fork, brakes, dropper or bars). The shoes are kinda questionable - on one hand, they're super popular, a wear item, and a longstanding model. On the other hand, the price varies a ton just based on them clearing out last year's color even if items near identical to this years (I got a pair of Impact Pros last year from Adidas' official ebay site for 75% off MSRP, in size 9.5 and black/grey, so not a huge outlier... Freerider Pros were running about $5 cheaper).
2) If you want to have a go at grabbing complete bikes, maybe aim for a couple longstanding trail models in size medium or large, in a GX or XT level build kit. Specialized Stumpjumper, Ibis Ripmo, or Transition Sentinel you can get d2c.
I think small product sample sizes would be problematic over the course of time. eg) Cant really compare the price of an XX1 R/D today to one of 10 years ago. For a short window of a few years it might be relevant.
It would be interesting to have more of an index approach. For instance, take the average msrp $ (maybe the median to flatten things) of a brands Full Suspension offerings. Comparing the values of Trek Vs Giant Vs Spec Vs Etc over time may not exactly be useful, but it'd be interesting. Could also just plot the entire dataset against inflation for another perspective.
1. @jeff.brines I was going to suggest Pinkbike classifieds but I saw you post it. You could combine that with Buycycle, TPC and some others I guess. Either way, great start.
2. I’m not an economist but I liked a lot of what Josh Poertner was talking about on the latest Marginal Gains podcast as it made a lot sense to me. His point was to go heavy on finished goods and make materials or building blocks very cheap or free. I haven’t looked into the reality of that but on the surface it made a lot of sense. If anyone wants to explain why it would be bad I’d be interested.
Is it? Doubtful. 1.8 billion people can't be wrong.
Faith? This is business not about friends.
Lot easier to do good business with friends than competitors.
Ask the Vital owners how that model is working out for them. I know many not so friendly types.
Remember, China and the USA have a bit of a special relationship.. They are the leading producers of cheap disposable products and we are their number 1 customer..
The Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong's stock exchange) just had its largest plunge: -13.2% in one day, since the Asian Financial Crisis (1997). The Hang Seng Tech Index -- basically the region's NASDAQ, where the region's largest e-commerce companies are listed, did much worse, going -17%.
On a different note, is this going to be a big problem for those companies that only have a warehouse/distribution centre in the US and not Canada/Mexico? I don't know exactly how that all works, but if (example) Trek only has distribution centres in the US, are Canadians going to end up footing the tariff bill for those bikes as well? I'm seeing conflicting info on this, but that would be pretty devastating for those companies that don't have something set up locally to accept shipments.
If that is entirely incorrect, something else to stay on topic ish.
As per Jeff's last post - funding will get harder to come by for companies looking to restructure their finances. Who is most at risk here? I would guess large companies with serious cash flow issues presently, and mid-sized companies who need any money. I would assume small businesses wouldn't be able to over-extend themselves that much at this point, whereas a medium-sized brand looking to scale up may get crushed (thinking of Factor Bikes at this point, since they garnered additional investments recently but the terms involved some insane level of growth in the next 5 years).
Things will get even worse if we do start seeing a recession, even if it's mild. No one is going to have the means to spend money on a $10K bike plus 50% tariffs (even entry level at >$5K sounds daunting). There will be the upper class that have the money to get the new-new beep-boop $22K superbike, but the middle of the market may slump.
Duty Drawback.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duty_drawback
The EO for 25% on Canada specifically said drawbacks no longer applied (so good imported FROM Canada but then exported to some other country). But the April EO's with 10% world wide tariff didn't call out drawbacks.
A quick read of the latest EO hitting the world with tariffs it doesn't call out drawbacks.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/regulating-imports-with-a-reciprocal-tariff-to-rectify-trade-practices-that-contribute-to-large-and-persistent-annual-united-states-goods-trade-deficits/
Many USA brands have 3rd party warehouses that get product shipped to them directly, partly for duty/tariff reasons. I don't think it will be a big deal for Canadian consumers, aside from spillover effects that will create upwards pricing pressure for all.
We'll see who starts to blend their pricing to try and preserve margin across all markets instead of just dive bombing the US market.
RAAW is now offering a 10% discount on US-bound orders to help offset the tariff: https://www.vitalmtb.com/news/press-release/raaw-discounts-orders-heading-us.
I'm not sure we've really digested what the last week's political actions really means for the US economy let alone the bike market. If this administration can't find an off ramp to the pending trade war + levying crazy high tariffs fast, I predict this will make the COVID hangover look "not so bad" with respect to bankruptcy in our little world. As to who is at risk, it has a lot more to do with the quality of the balance sheet and a lot less to do with the underlying size of the company.
What a mess.
In my industry (large commercial construction projects), we've had a few of our subs go under because the bank called on their line of credit. It's not rare for a sub that does 30M a year to be into their line of credit slightly depending on how the year ebbs/flows. For example, if a few projects get behind on change order approval and revenue issuance, and then they have 2-3 projects get started and ramp up before their billing/schedule of values provides positive cashflow, they can dip into that LOC.
Just recently, I've had 4 subs with healthy financials and healthy backlogs through 2026 have their financial institutions call on their line of credit with either 30-60 days to close it out. I have to do a pretty thorough financial evaluation and review as is required by my sub default insurance carrier. I can see their balance sheets for the last 5 years, their backlog absorption, their LOC usage and their historical cashflow... these are very healthy businesses... Welp, 2 of the 4 decided (had to) just close up shop and wind down their projects because they could not simultaneously start up new projects, pay off their LOC (in 60 days) and secure a new lender for the kind of financing that is required to do this business.
Construction lending right now is a shit show. No one is looking to take a risk for a construction loan for a 6% roi when they can put their money in bonds etc for a 4-5% roi. Developers and clients of mine have been experiencing that pain in the last 18 months, and it's now hitting the moderately sized subcontractors and GCs.
All this to say, I have no idea how the IBD and bicycle market is supposed to work. It's an industry that's based purely on product/design decisions 3 years in advance, IBDs making purchasing decisions a minimum of 12 months in advance all the while based purely on credit. These rather small businesses in the grand scheme of things, need to gamble on consumer wants with way too many choices for the consumer, and way too many products for a bike shop to predict. What are the chances that you have the right brand, right model that's hot in the market, the right size, the right build kit and the right color? All while managing what your initital allocation is, vs how long the re-stock will take and if the bike will still even be hot when that re-up delivers. How are such businesses supposed to survive a situation like this?
Agreed. It's worth noting that one of the key factors driving many bike industry companies to declare bankruptcy (or take on more debt) was lack of liquidity and cash flow because so much was tied up in inventory. Companies were flush with inventory and it was not selling fast enough to cover their monthly operational costs. Some companies got cash infusions to fill the gap (Scott, rumors of Trek taking Walton $) and others went belly up. From a cash flow standpoint, tariffs are a very heavy hit as companies have to pony up cash in advance of getting the product they are selling or with limited terms. That's a tough thing when you haven't planned for it and are already in a tough cash flow position.
My coworker pointed out that Lauf bikes is an interesting example a foreign company that invested in US facilities and is now getting screwed. They used to ship globally from TW. A few years ago they invested in a facility in Harrisonburg VA where they now do assembly and ship globally from. So now, they have to pay crazy tariffs on all parts they import to assemble bikes, only to then ship a notable percent of them back out of the US.....possibly to a country who put reciprocal tariffs in place which then increase the cost of the bike yet again before it gets to the end user.
It's hard to see a scenario where there are not major long term economic implications if these stay in place at any level near what is currently getting discussed.
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