The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

Plus, making a dedicated fork for the lightweight electric motorcycles should be a good thing for them.. I seem to be seeing more 40s getting destroyed by those things...

From the Financial Times article:

"The US private equity firm said on Wednesday it had agreed to hand its remaining equity stake to the Dutch group’s top-ranking lenders.
KKR and the backers of its funds will lose all of the €1.1bn equity cheque they wrote to acquire Accell in 2022, as well as hundreds of millions more that they pumped in after it started struggling."

do they still get their bonuses?

Someone just posted in the RAAW thread on PB. I'm guessing this is just going to be a US issue due to a certain level of... uncertainty... these days? They got this email last night. 

"Hi xxxxx,

First of all, we would like to thank you for your order and we're happy you've chosen to ride a RAAW in the future.

Unfortunately, we need to inform you about a short-notice change in the shipping process that affects your DHL shipment, which has already been dispatched. DHL has recently changed its customs clearance procedure for shipments to the USA. However, this change only came into effect after we had already shipped your order, and we were not informed about it at the time of dispatch.

This means that DHL no longer automatically handles customs clearance. You will most likely receive a notification from DHL or the US authorities asking you to appoint a customs broker to manage the import process on your behalf. Without appointing a broker, the shipment unfortunately cannot be delivered.
To support you as best as possible, here is a list of customs brokers provided by the US Government. You will also find all required documents for the customs process attached to this email.

If you prefer not to handle the additional effort, there is also the option to have the shipment returned to us. In that case, we will of course work together with you to find a suitable solution for the next steps.

We are fully aware that this situation is frustrating, and we sincerely apologize for the inconvenience. Unfortunately, we had no influence over this sudden procedural change by DHL.

Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have any questions or need assistance — we will support you as best we can.

Thank you very much for your understanding"

but Dow is at 50k!

Good on RAAW for trying to be pro-active on that shit timing, but jesus what a nightmare. I chose a great year to focus on savings instead of hobby spending, I hope there are products to buy on the other side of this (joking...kinda). 

Straddling the line of wanting to hold out in hopes things will stabilize vs upgrading now to have a freshie before Total Economic Collapse 

That's exactly why I made a slightly-above-my-comfortable-price-point (even though I they gave me a good deal on it) bike purchase on Nov 1st, 2024.

I knew the economic policies of both POTUS candidates and had a very clear understanding of where each policy was going. AND I knew what I was seeing as I was looking out into the electorate.

I wasn't sure how quickly things would end up...here. Overall it was a good move because it gave me time to adjust had I made a bad bike decision. I didn't, so everything's all good.

With the recent Supreme Court decision, does this situation potentially get a little better? 

We'll see how the dust settles, but currently the situation is worse. Trump responded by doubling down and increasing baseline global tariffs from 10-15% and re-introduced even more confusion and uncertainty where this will all land. 

POTUS has multiple other ways to impose tariffs, so barring a full-scale revolt from Congress (unlikely) I'm betting it won't get better until after the mid-term elections (and it's not a sure bet then either...)

So something to note on pricing that is coming through. and this is not meant to be a political post. but the new steel tariffs HIGHLY affect bike prices. ESPECIALLY e-bikes. basically all the bike companies have to figure out the percentage of steel in a bike (HS, bearings, cassette, motors) and then that times the pricing of the bike etc.  And these are not cheap... like some bikes increasing close to $1k just on tariff prices.... 

(cross posted in tech rumors)

Correct. The USA tariff situation is interesting, in a bad way. Currently you have 15% global tariffs, section 232 tariffs which impose 50% tariffs on steel that comes from outside the USA, and a range of tariffs on Chinese goods, from bicycles to lithium batteries. Non-chinese Ebikes are duty free but analog bikes get 11% duty applied to them. It is looking prohibitively expensive to get bikes into the USA.  

https://bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2026/02/21/trek-bicycle-among…

I have a hard time seeing how you get to a $1,000 increase on complete bikes from a 15% tariff on steel parts.  Even at full retail, a headset is like $40.  A complete BB is about $40.  A set of frame bearings is around $80.  A chain is $50-100.  The cassette is only partly steel (call it 75%), so maybe $200 for midrange.  Spokes are like $65.  The only steel parts in an ebike motor are the spindle and the cogs (housing is magnesium, lots of aluminum too plus the electronics), so I'd guess like $150 based on weight of those parts vs. a cassette.  The battery doesn't have steel.  So retail (not OEM cost) value of the steel parts is ~$625, and 15% of that is just $93.75.  That's an order of magnitude less than the $1k you suggested.

15% global tariff is probably included in the calculation... Then add on extra tariffs of 50% for steel etc

because it isn't 15%. as has been noted it is 50% for steel specifically.  

it is then % of overall weight, so say 20% of total weight of the bike.  now take 20% of the landed cost of the bike. now multiple that by 50%.  It grows quickly.

More here: https://escapecollective.com/shimano-trek-ibis-join-growing-queue-for-tariff-refunds-after-supreme-court-ruling/?gift-token=QUPGjd12

A few samples: "Others, including Shimano, Specialized, Tern Bicycle, Quality Bicycle Products, Marin, and Ibis, have also joined refund actions alongside larger brands, such as FedEx and Costco."

""We have been shoveling money into US Customs and Border Protection faster than we can make it. It's literally our entire operating margin," Evil's Moeschler noted. "We've had some short-term methods to offset the cash that we're shovelling into the government. But that wasn't a long-term plan. That was just, 'here's what we can do for a little bit' – but now we need something to change high level with the US government.""

$6,666 x 15% = $1,000.      i.e. at the low range what was $6,666 became $7,666.

$1,538 x (15% + 50%) = $1,000.      i.e. at the high range what was $1,538 became $2,538.

Many, perhaps most businesses operate by borrowing money, converting it into products, selling those products at a gross profit, using that to pay interest, salaries, leases and other overheads, and then hopefully leaving a net profit which might be reinvested (or be the reward of capitalism, but the reward hasn't existed in the bike industry recently, it's been negative). Borrowing 15% more requires paying 15% more interest, which cuts into what's available for the overheads. If the math doesn't math, business ceases. The bike industry has laid off a large portion of it's workforce trying to square this circle. Many bike companies have folded under the pressure.

The above only discusses the tariff situation. The are other inflation factors, and the bike industry was already straining under the post-Covid inventory glut which prompted this entire thread.

Here's a graph of a non-bike, non-metal food item I recently bought (which I think was subject to only a 10% tariff).

So FOX said forcing Legacy brands to "consolidate or cease operations". Should that be taken at face value?? I understand roughly how much some of the BIG 3-4 still owe to their suppliers, It kinda makes sense...But that's unreal. 

“Against this challenging backdrop, our bike business ended fiscal 2025 slightly above 2024 in an industry experiencing turbulence and challenges across many of our OEM customers. We have the financial strength to lead with our brands and a discipline to protect our margin structure while the industry works through its cycle.”

In a recap, Dennison stated, “We are not counting on market recovery or tariff relief. Given these macro realities of elevated interest rates, soft labour markets and channel partners’ tightening inventory levels, we remain focused on what we can control in 2026."

Read as the market isn't going to grow, so we're going to have to take share and/or cut expenses because we don't want to damage the brand(s) via discounting.

"We have been shoveling money into US Customs and Border Protection faster than we can make it. It's literally our entire operating margin," Evil's Moeschler noted. "We've had some short-term methods to offset the cash that we're shovelling into the government. But that wasn't a long-term plan. That was just, 'here's what we can do for a little bit' – but now we need something to change high level with the US government."

Absolutely brutal, horrible way to have to run a business. Just lighting money on fire. IDK, maybe its a PR move from a lot of companies, but the general situation seems to be that companies have been creatively trying to keep from passing on all of the tariff cost to consumers, but those solutions are quickly coming to an end. The dam is breaking. 

A lot of companies have been trying to absorb as much as possible regarding the tariffs to avoid pricing themselves out of the game... But that can only last so long..

Wait a sec… tariffs are taxes paid by US importers and will eventually be passed on to the end consumer in the form of higher prices?

Get outta here with that nonsense!

Not sure if this is the right place to post but looks like ENVE is doing better than expected and has some extra marketing dollars to light on fire?  ENVE composites backs Schumacher’s RLL IndyCar | RACER  

Know they have some other non-road/gravel product in the pipeline as well.

Even though a certain person in DC wants us to believe otherwise...

Trek would be an OEM customer, not an OEM. But yes, I read "legacy brands" as those with long histories, huge overheads, and reliance on retailers. In other words, big ships that turn slowly.

Almost like that’s the point.

(Whether the goal is to actually incentivize domestic manufacturing and purchasing versus lower income taxes for the rich is yet to be seen though)