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I also don't think us 'Berta peeps are their target market, let alone most of North America. Of all the high end or small batch bikes I've seen around Moose Mtn, and Atherton is the one that I haven't seen yet.
I think the UK and Europe is their target at this point in their existance, as no dollar in the world is not even touching the pound in exchange rates. Most of the users on this site seem to be from NA, UK, EU or Oceana and as of this post, exchange rates are 1 Euro/.83 GBP, $1 USD/$.80 GBP $1 CAD/$.56 GBP, with both Aus/NZL being around $1.00/.50GBP) why would any one outside of the UK or somewhat the EU buy an Atherton? its a minimum of 20% more than MSRP right out of the gate, and then shipping and import tax so unless you really had to have it, you're buying something else and I have no doubt they know this. I'm guessing in the UK its a bit more manageable to afford one and the Athertons have no shortage of fans there, as well as a want for UK made products. With many of us being NA and Oceana based, we just don't see them.
One of the aspects of the Atherton bikes in particular that I haven’t seen anyone mention yet is the fixed overhead cost for doing a lugged frame, electricity consumption in particular comes to mind. And then there’s the raw material, and yield costs. The raw high quality titanium(?) is expensive in the sizes required to mill one of their lugs from. One cnc machine goes haywire or a bit hangs up and the part is scrap, not to mention the amount of waste material that comes from one single lug. I realize that material is recycled but it’s pennies on the dollar for the cost of the raw material going in.
The concept is really cool and undoubtedly the cnc machined manufacturing has to be orders of magnitude cheaper and less oversight intensive than the original 3d titanium printed method Robot bikes employed before they bought the company but with fixed overhead costs that they are facing I don’t see how those can be lowered easily. Especially given that they are based in Europe where energy and man power costs are some of the highest in the world. Like the others before me I’m not rooting for them to turn the lights off at all but if I was an investor I would get cold feet looking at it from a purely roi standpoint.
Just curious - What do you mean by "20% more than MSRP right out the gate"?
I think he's referring to currency exchange rates, as the pound sterling is prouder than just about every other currency in the bike universe.
Some clarification. The Titanium is not CNC at all. Still printing those. On the aluminum bike the lugs are CNC. So material cost isnt crazy on that.
I think there is another key thing about Athertons. Size range. 12 sizes stock in both carbon and aluminum. This is more than any other frame manufacturer can do, because they only make what they sell.
Also, with the ti/carbon bike they can make it full custom for a minimum upcharge of designing the lugs. This isnt possible with any other carbon MTB that I can think of on the market. you can change the bike to whatever you personally want. And there is no increase in costs for atherton besides some design time.
On top of that they know how many frames they can make a year based on print time. cant sell more than that... makes it way easier to budget a business based on that number, and therefore stay within that budget.
I think he might be referring to import duties instead of conversion as the price of the bike is known from the beginning.
My A.170 was delivered the second week of December so I can give you a pretty accurate breakdown of current costs:
I have the Fox spec'ed version and the price when I bought it was $9608.33. This was on August 5th. I made some changes along the way that increased a bit but that was my choice and I was always informed of the price before needing to commit. Once it went to DHL I was required to pay import duties and fees to have it delivered. That amounted to $1244.95. Of course there was no VAT so I don't know that it is really a penalty in comparison.
Definitely talking above my pay grade on this one, wasn’t totally sure on the lugs as far as which process they’re using. Your last sentance is what I was really getting at, they know exactly how many bikes a year they can produce and the only way to scale that is purchasing more cnc machines/ 3d printing witchcraft which is a very expensive way forward.
Continuing with the numbers they have could prove fruitful, I have absolutely no idea how many bikes they’re selling vs what they can produce: but there is a very strict capacity overhead with their manufacturing method. If they’re need to scale it would require very expensive investment on the machinery side.
On the plus side their production method would allow a purchase of materials when costs are low to sit on, or alternatively have very little inventory on hand by way of materials… only need enough to build what has already sold. So from that aspect I can see benefits.
They also might not be printing every bike in-house on their machine(s). They could be (and probably are) using an outside vendor to supplement their production. This could also allow they to scale or quickly react to demand without the huge capex of a dmls machine. Yes, the print cost would probably be higher, but possibly a negotiated long term contract with a vendor could offset it a bit.
That said, from the few glimpses of their process I've seen on IG, yeah it's amazing they can sell those for what they do. The A bikes look so time intensive; printing, grinding, machining, etc. It seems like the S bikes are really their path forward, skip the printing and grinding and jump straight to the machining.
I'm not so sure the Atherton approach is really so bad capex wise?
First, I'm not sure they own the 3D printer(s) for the lugs. Pretty sure they don't own the cnc mill? You really want to have a good utilization rate on these to make it viable...
The rest of their process is somewhat labor intensive (the A versions more so than the S), but equipment is not much more than a few jigs for the bonding. (Okay, some reaming tools for pivots on A series)
Also I guess you'll have trouble finding someone in asia willing to produce such small volumes. Their total yearly frame sales must be in the hundreds max?
Also quite a bit of guessing from my side, and my 2 cents to go along with it 😀
The rumor here in Kamloops is that We Are One has been sold to industry 9. Which explains why they have stop making bikes and there DH program is cancelled as well.
Correct, However looking at the Atherton site and doing some quick math, I may over over simplified it. The 20% VAT is already added on their website to the UK pricing, so it seems like there's only a 10% difference between the UK and US pricing, but take away the vat and the base price difference on the base S170.3 is about 24% difference between the UK and US pricing, being $3839 GBP/$5119USD. That is before any kind of tax, credit card exchange rate fee's, import duties or fee's or shipping. If I were to purchase it in Canada from the Atherton website, lets just use USD as my currency of choice for simplicity, the S170.3 would be $7355 CAD before any duties, shipping and other fee's for a base model alloy bike with a Domain and NX. It would be $9085 in NZD.
That's why there are few Atherton bikes outside of the UK.
Ah I see what you mean now.
I was actually strongly considering an atherton, the carbon version. But the country where I reside in europe, its currency is not the strongest right now, and the exchange rate VS the pound is terrible. Bring higher VAT and customs fee into consideration - Just the frameset ended up being about the same cost as the full frame-up build I did myself going with a Megatower CC frame. I got some deals on stuff on sale, but it has pretty much all top end components.
So full bike, or just a frameset for the same price, it was a no brainer going with something else. Athertons are cool, and I would probably ride it for longer, but not for close to 3x the price.
(Converting to CAD, the frameset would have costed me more than $10k cad)
You are quite a lot closer than you realise 🤫
Blows my mind that Norco and Rocky want $4000 for a frame. I’ll never spend that much on a frame, but if I did Evil would be above those two (still low on the list of $4k frames though!). I say this as a person with no industry insider discount who buys a new frame every year. Surprised frame prices aren’t at least a tad less insane, in order to hook this segment of the market. Maybe discounts on framesets will be the new norm and only the early adopters will pay full freight?
Bullish Propain and Commencal since they have just in time builds. (any others?) Even on those it’s hard to justify a full build since all my existing components are amazing and are compatible with pretty much any frame out there. (Of which they’re all really good now)
Yeah, and the frame prices on the other side of the pond are even more insane. About $1000-1500 more on average for any of the big name brands.
Propain are about half that, and they often run 15% discount on everything on their site. So I definitely see why they are selling more and more.
Parts here are often relatively cheap though. I have bought 3 Transmission groupsets at between 40%-50% off, the latest rockshox forks are like $500 off every now and then. And spesh has had insane discounts on their traverse wheels for the past few months, any stock left with DT hubs have had 50% discounts.
So some times we (or I rather) can justify the slightly higher cost of the frames, since I can get most of the other big ticket items for almost half the price. Built my last bike for about half the price of what the manufacturer wanted for a full build with similar parts.
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts.
Assumption on Capex: You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of their additive manufacturing and CNC work. However, if this is true, its going to make scaling the business harder than it already is and per unit costs higher. Not saying its impossible, but you are either caught carrying all sorts of inventory in the form of lugs and links, or you are somehow ridiculously tight with the vendors that are doing all this work for you, and risk long lead times and lost sales or higher amounts of inventory in a non manufactured state which has its own challenges. Regardless, if you don't have this in house, I see no way these bikes are somehow cheaper overall than a conventional carbon molded bike or normally welded bike. Again, I haven't taken on a gazillion bids for this type of work, but enough to know it is not cheap no matter who is doing the work externally for you (3D printing ti lugs, CNCing alloy lugs, plus manufacturing, plus building the bikes, plus packing and shipping them...gah).
Assumptions on Race Team Cost: This one I feel I'm likely correct on, though you all are right, they might have some kind of outside help I'm missing. The reason Frameworks can run a team like they can is really because of WD-40. I do not see a consumer product brand like WD-40 on the sponsor banner for AB, which is why I feel the company itself is likely putting up some real cash to run the program. Am I for sure right? Nope. But I'd bet that way more than the latter.
The company clearly makes a good product and clearly has a niche, I've never argued otherwise in any bit of what I'm suggesting.
At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it. Maybe I've been fooled and they in fact are in the black, running things lean and mean, or have some kind of grant from the local government. Lots of ways to find an advantage and I certainly hope they have one.
I need to be extra clear to close this piece. I am not rooting against the company. In fact, I want to own one of their bikes. I hope they have a long and prosperous future, full of immense financial success. They are incredibly cool, and as anyone who really knows me will attest, I have a thing for lugged carbon bikes (quick, somebody go post the BCD picture from my senior year of high school...21 years ago!!)
Okay, who has another fun hot take going into the year?
I mean we're all shooting darts with at least one eye closed here; no one knows what's going on and if they did it wouldn't be made public here. I sincerely hope all the brands, especially the ones with true cycling enthusiasts, make it in the long run.
So what does a company do if they have a new unreleased update to one of their bikes, but just said they are turning off the lights?
These companies that are heading out pasture all have current and likely new bikes sitting on the shelf, how are their supplies going to be absorbed?
I would like to see some gorilla marketing campaigns of yesterday year, none of these Norco ridiculous welcome video shenanigans.
Catching up on the thread and not to pile on to said dead horse but there is info out there for Athertons (bikes, racing, trees, etc) if you're so inclined. Some interesting reading if you're @jeff.brines geeky. For the record, I like what they're doing, am a big fan, and hope to add one of their bikes to my garage later this year.
Atherton Bikes 1, 2
Atherton Racing
Dyfi Bike Park
Dyfi Timber Company
Atherton Group Holdings
Tenths Distribution
This is a fairly new thing now, for the longest time a frame up build required basically all new components. And selling a frame on the used market is usually harder than a complete bike.
Even with deals you are mentioning I still doubt it makes it worth doing a parts build vs. a complete bike for most people... The price delta with bikes stuff is just too big, at least on msrp. Doing my Bird build in 2019 it cost me 4500 eur, an equal build with a Raaw Madonna with German prices would be 7500 eur (didn't look at any deals, but 3k is A LOT of money).
I tend to agree on that somewhat. If you're paying msrp for parts,prices are probably similar, if you have a shop build it. Only positive is you get to choose exactly what you want.
That was how it started for me. You get a prefrence for certain parts. So if I buy a complete I want different tires, pads, grips, handlebar, different stem length, seat etc, it doesnt really make sense buying a complete.
But with the discounts, we're talking maybe $7k for a frame up build with every single part hand picked, vs a $12-13k complete bike (even more some times) - Granted you need the space, the tools, and knowledge. I can build a "super bike" for mid-tier bike pricing. (Keep in mind prices here in Europe are probably 20% higher on completes for many brands)
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean.
"At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it."
What about their infrastructure gives you the impression of a larger company? By larger company do you mean something on the scale of Rocky, Norco, or on the scale of Evil, Yeti?
shark tank for bikes? received this email/PR yesterday.
Arkansas Global Cycling Accelerator Launches, Seeks Applicants for Inaugural Cohort
BENTONVILLE, Arkansas USA. (January 7, 2025) – The Arkansas Global Cycling Accelerator (AGCA) has officially launched in Bentonville, Arkansas, a destination that is positioned to become a global center for cycling innovation.
This new initiative, led by cycling industry veterans and entrepreneurial experts, aims to attract a cohort of 10 exceptional startups from North America, Europe, and Asia. The accelerator will offer a 10-week hybrid program designed to support cycling-related tech innovation, provide access to key investors and mentors, and build strategic partnerships with top brands in the industry.
AGCA’s mission aligns with Arkansas’ ongoing investment in cycling infrastructure, creating a unique ecosystem where tech-enabled solutions for cycling can test and scale. With its focus on both business growth and cutting-edge technology, the accelerator promises to foster long-term cycling industry growth in Arkansas. It will be led by staff from Startup Junkie Foundation and the University of Arkansas Office of Entrepreneurship & Innovation’s (OEI) Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program (GORP). Arkansas, with its dense cycling community and world-class infrastructure, provides the perfect backdrop for this ambitious project. “This is an exciting time for the cycling industry, and Arkansas is well-positioned to be at the forefront of it all,” said Martial Trigeaud, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Cardinal Cycling Group and the accelerator’s Founder and Cohort Advisor.
“Startup Junkie has supported new startups in Arkansas for over a decade,” said Caleb Talley, Executive Director of the Startup Junkie Foundation. “Given the importance of cycling to our state’s economy and the density of industry leaders in our community, it made sense for us to help organize and execute this new program alongside our colleagues from the GORP program and with Martial’s cycling expertise.” Startups interested in shaping the future of cycling are encouraged to apply to AGCA’s inaugural cohort. Applications are open now at www.cyclingaccelerator.com. Interviews will be conducted on a rolling basis until the application window closes on Tuesday, February 11. Decisions will be announced by Tuesday, February 18.
The program was sponsored by a $125,000 grant from the Arkansas Economic Development Commission and a funding match from the Walton Family Foundation.
For more information, please visit www.cyclingaccelerator.com or contact AGCA staff at agca@uark.edu.
About the Startup Junkie Foundation: The Startup Junkie Foundation is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization based in Northwest Arkansas that focuses on supporting entrepreneurs and fostering economic development. The foundation works to provide resources, mentorship, and educational programs to help entrepreneurs start and grow their businesses, with a particular emphasis on serving underrepresented founders and rural communities.
About the Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program: The Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program (GORP) is a business incubation program focused on the development of entrepreneurs who are creating innovative products and services within the outdoor recreation industry. Launched by the University of Arkansas Office of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in 2022, the program has directly supported 47 companies through its cohort incubator and program staff have consulted on over 400 business ideas in the outdoor recreation space.
CONTACT:
Caleb Talley
Executive Director
Startup Junkie Foundation
caleb@startupjunkie.org
They've been doing the GORP program for a while, and they've had some cycling-related startups come through it.
Natural State Carbon Repair (name says it all) is in current cohort I believe.
My favorite is Gnargo Cargo Bikes, which are just awesome. They upcycle old bike frames into sweet cargo e-bikes.
gnargo bikes look so rad! (sorry, OT)
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you pay dollar one on staff costs. Whenever I see big cool new shiny corporate HQ's in bike world, I think the companies think it's supposed to impress me, but it just worries me. A lot of the Bellingham companies got shiny new offices in high rent areas in the last 5-10 years and each of them took my breath away in a not-so-great way.
Speaking on large capital spend + world cup racing precense... the announcement of Jenny Rissveds moving on from Ibis to Canyon caught my attention. It could be a nothingburger and just another contract move, but Ibis seems to be progressively leaving the racing scene in a time shortly following their large CAPEX investment with the opening up of their new Santa Cruz manufacturing facility.
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.
Could you have gotten a bike bag, bought a used crappy Walmart mountain bike, traveled to Wales, dump the bike, picked up the new Atherton? Basically making it a trip to Wales for a few days riding at Dyfi to make it a two for one trip? Might have saved money. That was my plan if I bought one of those. You would have paid for it beforehand, didn't have to ship it because you are traveling with it, and you pass it off as the "bike" you brought on the trip? Circumventing the duties, and shipping costs for the cost of traveling with a bike bag.
Not 100% sure but if I remember correctly this is a commercial building unit and Bernard Kerr rents the left side of it. Not sure if it‘s their own.
Gnargo Cargo Bikes is rad! Thank you for sharing that!
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