The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

1/11/2025 2:57am
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts. Assumption on Capex:  You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of...

Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts. 

Assumption on Capex:  You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of their additive manufacturing and CNC work. However, if this is true, its going to make scaling the business harder than it already is and per unit costs higher. Not saying its impossible, but you are either caught carrying all sorts of inventory in the form of lugs and links, or you are somehow ridiculously tight with the vendors that are doing all this work for you, and risk long lead times and lost sales or higher amounts of inventory in a non manufactured state which has its own challenges. Regardless, if you don't have this in house, I see no way these bikes are somehow cheaper overall than a conventional carbon molded bike or normally welded bike. Again, I haven't taken on a gazillion bids for this type of work, but enough to know it is not cheap no matter who is doing the work externally for you (3D printing ti lugs, CNCing alloy lugs, plus manufacturing, plus building the bikes, plus packing and shipping them...gah). 

Assumptions on Race Team Cost: This one I feel I'm likely correct on, though you all are right, they might have some kind of outside help I'm missing. The reason Frameworks can run a team like they can is really because of WD-40. I do not see a consumer product brand like WD-40 on the sponsor banner for AB, which is why I feel the company itself is likely putting up some real cash to run the program. Am I for sure right? Nope. But I'd bet that way more than the latter.

The company clearly makes a good product and clearly has a niche, I've never argued otherwise in any bit of what I'm suggesting.

At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it. Maybe I've been fooled and they in fact are in the black, running things lean and mean, or have some kind of grant from the local government. Lots of ways to find an advantage and I certainly hope they have one.

I need to be extra clear to close this piece. I am not rooting against the company. In fact, I want to own one of their bikes. I hope they have a long and prosperous future, full of immense financial success. They are incredibly cool, and as anyone who really knows me will attest, I have a thing for lugged carbon bikes (quick, somebody go post the BCD picture from my senior year of high school...21 years ago!!)

Okay, who has another fun hot take going into the year? 



 

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

1
Stewyeww
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1/11/2025 6:56am
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts. Assumption on Capex:  You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of...

Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts. 

Assumption on Capex:  You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of their additive manufacturing and CNC work. However, if this is true, its going to make scaling the business harder than it already is and per unit costs higher. Not saying its impossible, but you are either caught carrying all sorts of inventory in the form of lugs and links, or you are somehow ridiculously tight with the vendors that are doing all this work for you, and risk long lead times and lost sales or higher amounts of inventory in a non manufactured state which has its own challenges. Regardless, if you don't have this in house, I see no way these bikes are somehow cheaper overall than a conventional carbon molded bike or normally welded bike. Again, I haven't taken on a gazillion bids for this type of work, but enough to know it is not cheap no matter who is doing the work externally for you (3D printing ti lugs, CNCing alloy lugs, plus manufacturing, plus building the bikes, plus packing and shipping them...gah). 

Assumptions on Race Team Cost: This one I feel I'm likely correct on, though you all are right, they might have some kind of outside help I'm missing. The reason Frameworks can run a team like they can is really because of WD-40. I do not see a consumer product brand like WD-40 on the sponsor banner for AB, which is why I feel the company itself is likely putting up some real cash to run the program. Am I for sure right? Nope. But I'd bet that way more than the latter.

The company clearly makes a good product and clearly has a niche, I've never argued otherwise in any bit of what I'm suggesting.

At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it. Maybe I've been fooled and they in fact are in the black, running things lean and mean, or have some kind of grant from the local government. Lots of ways to find an advantage and I certainly hope they have one.

I need to be extra clear to close this piece. I am not rooting against the company. In fact, I want to own one of their bikes. I hope they have a long and prosperous future, full of immense financial success. They are incredibly cool, and as anyone who really knows me will attest, I have a thing for lugged carbon bikes (quick, somebody go post the BCD picture from my senior year of high school...21 years ago!!)

Okay, who has another fun hot take going into the year? 



 

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40...

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

Isn't that how sponsorship works though? The more you pay the bigger more prominent spot you get?

4
1/11/2025 7:23am
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts. Assumption on Capex:  You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of...

Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts. 

Assumption on Capex:  You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of their additive manufacturing and CNC work. However, if this is true, its going to make scaling the business harder than it already is and per unit costs higher. Not saying its impossible, but you are either caught carrying all sorts of inventory in the form of lugs and links, or you are somehow ridiculously tight with the vendors that are doing all this work for you, and risk long lead times and lost sales or higher amounts of inventory in a non manufactured state which has its own challenges. Regardless, if you don't have this in house, I see no way these bikes are somehow cheaper overall than a conventional carbon molded bike or normally welded bike. Again, I haven't taken on a gazillion bids for this type of work, but enough to know it is not cheap no matter who is doing the work externally for you (3D printing ti lugs, CNCing alloy lugs, plus manufacturing, plus building the bikes, plus packing and shipping them...gah). 

Assumptions on Race Team Cost: This one I feel I'm likely correct on, though you all are right, they might have some kind of outside help I'm missing. The reason Frameworks can run a team like they can is really because of WD-40. I do not see a consumer product brand like WD-40 on the sponsor banner for AB, which is why I feel the company itself is likely putting up some real cash to run the program. Am I for sure right? Nope. But I'd bet that way more than the latter.

The company clearly makes a good product and clearly has a niche, I've never argued otherwise in any bit of what I'm suggesting.

At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it. Maybe I've been fooled and they in fact are in the black, running things lean and mean, or have some kind of grant from the local government. Lots of ways to find an advantage and I certainly hope they have one.

I need to be extra clear to close this piece. I am not rooting against the company. In fact, I want to own one of their bikes. I hope they have a long and prosperous future, full of immense financial success. They are incredibly cool, and as anyone who really knows me will attest, I have a thing for lugged carbon bikes (quick, somebody go post the BCD picture from my senior year of high school...21 years ago!!)

Okay, who has another fun hot take going into the year? 



 

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40...

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

Stewyeww wrote:

Isn't that how sponsorship works though? The more you pay the bigger more prominent spot you get?

That's typically the case.. Also Neko has done a great job of building the brand with the video series on the bike development. WD40 knows that people are watching, so there is a value for them.

1
jeff.brines
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1/11/2025 7:48am
Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40...

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating a lot of the team's $400K budget. I do know in the Vital pod with neko he was on record saying (this is a direct quote) "pretty much uh WD40 has a line of bike products and that's where our budget comes from" 

Neko is incredibly transparent about how Frameworks the company (and team) works. One of a gagillion reasons I love the dude.

Anyway, this wasn't a point of speculation from me, this was something I know Neko talked directly about. If I got any detail wrong, I'm happy to correct it, but I don't think I did. 

6
Jotegr
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1/11/2025 8:38am

Aight, well now EVERYBODY is talking about WAO going to I9 so it might as well get posted here. Sad for us in many ways. 

7
amaranth
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1/11/2025 9:09am
Jotegr wrote:

Aight, well now EVERYBODY is talking about WAO going to I9 so it might as well get posted here. Sad for us in many ways. 

Wait what? They're being bought out by i9?

sprungmass
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1/11/2025 10:10am

Not too surprising since WR1 was making carbon rims for i9 for the last 4 years. Hopefully this helps simplify the i9 wheelset line as they have way too many options. Happy for WR1 because the real tragedy would've been if they went under. 

3
ballz
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1/11/2025 11:25am

I really liked WR1's cockpit collab with 77designz, oh well.

Etney
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1/11/2025 1:21pm Edited Date/Time 1/11/2025 1:22pm
ballz wrote:

I really liked WR1's cockpit collab with 77designz, oh well.

77designz will continue selling their cockpit, but are working with a new supplier. Obv takes some time to get everything set up - But it will be available again

 

4
DServy
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1/11/2025 1:27pm
Jotegr wrote:

Aight, well now EVERYBODY is talking about WAO going to I9 so it might as well get posted here. Sad for us in many ways. 

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooo breaths oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. 

I want to like i9, but I just cannot get behind their hubs. Are they still doing their rims out of Kamloops though?

2
1/11/2025 2:07pm
Jotegr wrote:

Aight, well now EVERYBODY is talking about WAO going to I9 so it might as well get posted here. Sad for us in many ways. 

DServy wrote:

Boooooooooooooooooooooooooo breaths oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo. 

I want to like i9, but I just cannot get behind their hubs. Are they still doing their rims out of Kamloops though?

I hope so, having WAO local was one reason I bought my wheels last spring. Since they've started in Kamloops it's been impressive watching them grow and be part of the community, while staying somewhat competitive price wise 

3
Jotegr
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1/11/2025 3:04pm

Nothing is done yet but that's the rumour; it's been bouncing around for a few months now. I think whether production moves will be highly tariff dependent. 

5
1/11/2025 8:40pm

If y'all keep this up Spomer's gonna start a new thread for Industry Nine reviews. Back on topic, please?

10
Whattheheel
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1/11/2025 8:58pm

The one company I am most bummed about closing albeit it was a quite a while ago was Twenty6 Products, I still have a ton of Tyler’s stuff that I haven’t had to do a damn thing to. 

2
1/12/2025 10:39am
Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40...

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating...

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating a lot of the team's $400K budget. I do know in the Vital pod with neko he was on record saying (this is a direct quote) "pretty much uh WD40 has a line of bike products and that's where our budget comes from" 

Neko is incredibly transparent about how Frameworks the company (and team) works. One of a gagillion reasons I love the dude.

Anyway, this wasn't a point of speculation from me, this was something I know Neko talked directly about. If I got any detail wrong, I'm happy to correct it, but I don't think I did. 

Coming off of supercross weekend, I found this "logo size" commentary kinda fun and I make the similar observations you all would. But, I can tell ya this without naming names-but, I have seen scenarios where a certain moto rig/jerseys have all kinds of brand logos, in the industry, outside the industry and one would think these are high dollar deals-some perhaps, but I know for a fact a few logos don't pay a penny, some logos are put on there in hopes they come on BIG in the future as well-which is nuts-but it happens. Point of the post is, don't always assume big logo or any logo means there is a cash infusion. 

3
1
1/12/2025 10:44am
Jotegr wrote:

Aight, well now EVERYBODY is talking about WAO going to I9 so it might as well get posted here. Sad for us in many ways. 

This is a bummer and not for any I9 neg vibes, they are awesome, it would be a bummer to see WAO falter-unless this creates some ultra awesome super partnership. Wishing the best to both brands.

1
1/12/2025 11:44am

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

2
1/12/2025 12:12pm
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Especially if the "25% tariff on everything from Canada" from orange man comes into play.

6
1/12/2025 12:26pm

Especially if the "25% tariff on everything from Canada" from orange man comes into play.

If that great example of a bad idea happens, a strategic partnership with I9 could be quite beneficial..

3
sspomer
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1/13/2025 8:02am

If y'all keep this up Spomer's gonna start a new thread for Industry Nine reviews. Back on topic, please?

done (sort of). i've nuked all the specific product review posts. they belong here. feel free to start your own forum topic about I9 or WAO (or any other brand).

4
Jotegr
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1/13/2025 8:30am Edited Date/Time 1/13/2025 8:53am
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

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DIGRIDEPARTY
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1/13/2025 8:30am
Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40...

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating...

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating a lot of the team's $400K budget. I do know in the Vital pod with neko he was on record saying (this is a direct quote) "pretty much uh WD40 has a line of bike products and that's where our budget comes from" 

Neko is incredibly transparent about how Frameworks the company (and team) works. One of a gagillion reasons I love the dude.

Anyway, this wasn't a point of speculation from me, this was something I know Neko talked directly about. If I got any detail wrong, I'm happy to correct it, but I don't think I did. 

WD-40 Has logo'd shuttle trucks at Rock Creek. They aren't funding Frameworks. Neko got some money from Loctite to glue a frame. His sponsor rank is listed in order on all his posts. 2025 5 dev is the main sponsor. Last year they were the top as well but not title position. They make him custom parts so not sure if it's a money deal or free machining. Most likely he gets moderate amounts of money for 20 sponsors vs 1 big whale or funding sponsor. 

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PisgahGnar
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1/13/2025 8:46am
WD-40 Has logo'd shuttle trucks at Rock Creek. They aren't funding Frameworks. Neko got some money from Loctite to glue a frame. His sponsor rank is...

WD-40 Has logo'd shuttle trucks at Rock Creek. They aren't funding Frameworks. Neko got some money from Loctite to glue a frame. His sponsor rank is listed in order on all his posts. 2025 5 dev is the main sponsor. Last year they were the top as well but not title position. They make him custom parts so not sure if it's a money deal or free machining. Most likely he gets moderate amounts of money for 20 sponsors vs 1 big whale or funding sponsor. 

The shuttle trucks are Michelin. 

2
Shinook
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1/13/2025 8:56am

So I guess that WAO news explains why we haven't seen any more progress on WAO releasing the handlebars they debuted at Sea Otter last year? 

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DIGRIDEPARTY
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1/13/2025 9:02am
PisgahGnar wrote:

The shuttle trucks are Michelin. 

Oh yeah There's wd-40 bike washes. I swore there was a truck too. Blue logos get confusing. Either way. WD-40 isn't a top frameworks sponsor. 

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dolface
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1/13/2025 9:36am
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Jotegr wrote:
So I think the frames are done forever. The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top...

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

Weren't the molds also temp/not full production molds or am getting WAO mixed up w/ Crestline?

jeff.brines
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1/13/2025 12:46pm Edited Date/Time 1/13/2025 12:47pm
PisgahGnar wrote:

The shuttle trucks are Michelin. 

Oh yeah There's wd-40 bike washes. I swore there was a truck too. Blue logos get confusing. Either way. WD-40 isn't a top frameworks sponsor. 

I know I'm going to sound like a dick, and I don't mean to, but can we stop the thread derailment? Was this an AI version of Neko being interviewed by an AI version of Spomer in this video? Link to video. This conversation is  a discussion relevant to "semi-known" 2024 team financials. For clarity, this thread isn’t focused on team rumors—there's a separate thread for that. Wink

The intent of discussing team sponsorship and dynamics here is to highlight the significant costs involved in running a team. For smaller companies, the ROI might not make sense unless they can successfully collaborate with multiple sponsors, or have a big boy sponsor like WD step up. This approach minimizes the financial burden on the bike frame company, limiting their contribution primarily to providing product (which is the case here). Obviously, we could have a whole separate thread as to the ins and outs of how it all works, and how good of an investment it really is, but I'm not so interested in that broadly speaking atm. 

 

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sethimus
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1/13/2025 1:12pm

If y'all keep this up Spomer's gonna start a new thread for Industry Nine reviews. Back on topic, please?

sspomer wrote:
done (sort of). i've nuked all the specific product review posts. they belong here. feel free to start your own forum topic about I9 or WAO...

done (sort of). i've nuked all the specific product review posts. they belong here. feel free to start your own forum topic about I9 or WAO (or any other brand).

instead of nuking i would prefer you'd transfer offtopic posts to a new topic so the origin of the discussion remains and can continue

2
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metadave
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1/13/2025 9:01pm Edited Date/Time 1/13/2025 9:01pm
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Jotegr wrote:
So I think the frames are done forever. The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top...

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the frames weren't profitable, they were going to stop making them and focus on other things, but learned a lot from making it. They only made money when they sold rolling chassis and I think I also saw they'd offered up the arrival design to anyone willing to make it, but I may be wrong on that. 

7
dolface
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1/14/2025 5:09am
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Jotegr wrote:
So I think the frames are done forever. The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top...

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

metadave wrote:
Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the...

Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the frames weren't profitable, they were going to stop making them and focus on other things, but learned a lot from making it. They only made money when they sold rolling chassis and I think I also saw they'd offered up the arrival design to anyone willing to make it, but I may be wrong on that. 

2

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