You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing...
You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing those impacts objectively is absolutely fair game. But turning this thread into a debate over how terrible one politician or another is on the world stage isn't really where I hoped the conversation would go. There's plenty of room for that elsewhere.
💯💯💯The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world...
💯💯💯
The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world today.
Global/international economic discussions cannot be apolitical in our current systems.
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it. If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).
💯💯💯The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world...
💯💯💯
The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world today.
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it. If you talk to an investment...
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it. If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).
@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question or observation, and it also ties back into the outdoor industry, this is a great place to do so. The line is pretty clear.
Great to see Garmin doing well but I can’t help but think they are the next “blackberry”. I have a hunch the categories itself is really growing. But when their new bike computers look more and more like smartphones, it begs the question if Apple can end up eating their lunch if they wanted to down the road.
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're...
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
I have a friend that works as a machinist in a non bike related industry and he said availability of aluminum is way down and when they can get it they're paying double to three times what they were paying even a couple of years ago.
I believe it was mentioned here in the recent past, but one of the largest suppliers of raw alu stock is located in the UAE and their operations have been directly impacted by the Iran war. New supply routes overland aren't really a viable option for non-liquid material...
On the topic of the impact of data centers, this is certainly a thing. We wrapped up a battery project earlier this year and obtaining the chips required for the BMS was met with huge leadtimes due to the rapid proliferation of data centers. In the past, the automotive sector was to blame as well with the rise in electric cars, so the cycling industry gets punted to the back of the line once again.
💯💯💯The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world...
💯💯💯
The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world today.
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it. If you talk to an investment...
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it. If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).
That's fair, I am not defending talking about political opinions/trolling, but politics are a factor in every aspect of our lives. To say, in a discussion of an industry that depends on global economics, that someone doesn't want any political talk is naive.
This forum is certainly not a place for being a shitlord, but let's not kid ourselves. Politics are 100% part of the economic realities facing the bike industry.
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. From this week...-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear -Bosch is moving its mobility unit to...
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something.
From this week...
-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear
-Bosch is moving its mobility unit to a wholly owned subsidiary starting in about 1 year. CEO Christian Fischer cited growing pressure from Asian competitors
-Garmin's fitness segment is crushing; 33% operating margin produced $231M of operating income
-Bids for Lapierre were due yesterday by noon.
-Another China brand enters worldtour level sponsor...TotalEnergies dropped Cube for Pardus (never heard of them) for a 3 year deal.
-VF Corp beat Q2 guidance, reaffirmed the FY guidance but inventories rose 7 y/y
I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.
I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.
Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're...
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.
I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices.
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. From this week...-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear -Bosch is moving its mobility unit to...
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something.
From this week...
-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear
-Bosch is moving its mobility unit to a wholly owned subsidiary starting in about 1 year. CEO Christian Fischer cited growing pressure from Asian competitors
-Garmin's fitness segment is crushing; 33% operating margin produced $231M of operating income
-Bids for Lapierre were due yesterday by noon.
-Another China brand enters worldtour level sponsor...TotalEnergies dropped Cube for Pardus (never heard of them) for a 3 year deal.
-VF Corp beat Q2 guidance, reaffirmed the FY guidance but inventories rose 7 y/y
I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.
I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.
Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!
Dropping out of eMTB entirely: "that's a bold move Cotton".
It's conceivable eMTB will have a much shorter consumer upgrade cycle than analog bikes for a long time because of advancing battery tech. (not to mention removable battery/non-removable battery/range extender configs changing around with current battery tech) I'm totally comfortable owning my lifetime warranty crab link analog bike for 10 years. There's also many consumers that wouldn't be caught dead on an Amflow/Teewing/etc. and want a "real brand"/bike shop for their eMTB.
If said brand thinks they're safe because Amflow would never drop a $3k carbon analog bike...we shall see. My dad's Amflow just landed at our LBS yesterday. (former YT, Canyon eeb owner)
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. From this week...-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear -Bosch is moving its mobility unit to...
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something.
From this week...
-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear
-Bosch is moving its mobility unit to a wholly owned subsidiary starting in about 1 year. CEO Christian Fischer cited growing pressure from Asian competitors
-Garmin's fitness segment is crushing; 33% operating margin produced $231M of operating income
-Bids for Lapierre were due yesterday by noon.
-Another China brand enters worldtour level sponsor...TotalEnergies dropped Cube for Pardus (never heard of them) for a 3 year deal.
-VF Corp beat Q2 guidance, reaffirmed the FY guidance but inventories rose 7 y/y
I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.
I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.
Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!
I ended up not having time to write out a post.
But when the discussion was is bikes more like craft beer or auto the answer was a very odd in between.
In auto, outside of insane outside investment like Tesla, or china government (which is one and the same btw, Tesla would be broke if it weren’t for Chinese investment to sell Chinese made teslas to everywhere not the us) there is zero possibility for anyone to enter the industry and compete. This means that industry is essentially left to compete with themselves.
What could change bikes to be more like auto is exactly that. If the Asian factories decide to compete on one brand for world wide market share. They could theoretically turn the bike world into something like dirt bikes where there are only a few players in the world.
I think it’s ultimately unlikely unless Chinese brands essentially force a lot of consolidation. Which I don’t think would be good for consumers or development in the long run.
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing returns. Less progress, less differentiation, for more money. This naturally favors bigger firms.
Right now what’s happening is that firms that have developed actual structural advantages will be more able to persist and those that don’t are more likely to get squeezed out. This isn’t related to micro brands like frameworks or whatever random bullshit sethimus is going to bring up next. That is pure fashion. I’m talking about for brands that need to sell thousands of units in order to keep the lights on. The advantages I’m talking about are things like retail partners (floor space), manufacturing, etc.
Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes. Or a company like x-lab that can produce a bike at retail that’s half the cost and all the spec of the thing next to it on the floor because of their huge manufacturing capabilities.
How does a company like Pivot, Yeti, Transition, etc compete in this world? It becomes increasingly difficult. Worse still for less established brands like revel, evil, GT etc.
You can debate the strength of one brand over another or whatever, but like jeff.brines said, amflow is now fox’s biggest customer. That’s a huge amount of market share they captured overnight. Because they are backed by a massive company that was able to do a huge R&D push to innovate and then bring those innovations to market at very attractive prices.
What is jimmy’s cool bike brand going to do to respond to the market share they are losing? 5mm longer chainstays next year at 2x the cost of amflow/x-lab/etc? This is what people are talking about when they are saying there are too many brands. Why does brand X exist? Because they are cool guys who ride cool trails in this cool place? Not good enough outside of small fashion brands. Passion can only get you so far.
Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes.
actually they can’t anymore. take their new crux gravel bike. sold out since introduction without any stock replenishment on the horizon. if a dealer didn’t preorder, they are out of luck.
I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.
I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.
Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!
In some ways Bike 4.0 is already there for carbon rims and wheelset, Light bicycle, Farsport and many more xiamen factories are now well known reputable brand that people have no qualms buying from.
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're...
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because...
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.
I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
I get that spinning off Bosch's mobility unit into its own subsidiary will allow for //insert business lingo here// but is there any possibility this...
I get that spinning off Bosch's mobility unit into its own subsidiary will allow for //insert business lingo here// but is there any possibility this is also to insulate the main Bosch company if the business fails? I don't think they necessarily will fail, I wonder if this setup allows the Mobility company to run a higher debt load for research/development/marketing and not take down all of Bosch if things don't work out.
Rough numbers, I want to say the overall Mobility side of things is a 50+ billion Euro business. The bike portion is a tiny fraction. Bosch as a whole is in the 90 billion Euro range. Something like 30-40x what Shimano does annually. Rapid development and iteration in the mobility world is certainly looking different than the historic automotive pace, and probably different than power tools and dishwashers, so you may be right.
Purely guessing, but I suspect they're much more concerned with Chinese EVs (BYD) and the like than Avinox/DJI. Bosch itself has an interesting structure, being 90+% held as a charitable non-profit.
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're...
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because...
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.
I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to...
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
The tariffs on Chinese-made bikes are substantially higher than those on bikes made in Indonesia at the moment. Insera can do things with Marin, at scale, thanks to the house brand Polygon and decades of experience hitting certain price points.
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're...
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because...
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.
I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to...
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
Ironically domestic frame builders still have to pay the tariff on tubing. There's no domestic source for butted tubing, but domestic material costs have risen to match the tariff laden import prices so even if there were demand it's not economically viable to establish one.
I think most domestic frame builders have been getting by with whatever pre-tariff tubes they have available, or by not getting by.
So, tariffs levied on tubing and raw materials are making a major impact on aluminum frame production domestically, and differing tariffs against specific countries are affecting the viability of certain company’s models of complete aluminum bikes and frames.
Thanks @pamtbr and @Digit Bikes for educating us on this!So, tariffs levied on tubing and raw materials are making a major impact on aluminum frame production...
So, tariffs levied on tubing and raw materials are making a major impact on aluminum frame production domestically, and differing tariffs against specific countries are affecting the viability of certain company’s models of complete aluminum bikes and frames.
Yes.
The basics are that in addition to regular HTS duties, and whatever 20ish% tariffs are been applied to most imports recently - the US has an additional 50% tariff on imported aluminum and steel (75% for China).
It's only this additional aluminum/steel tariff which gets the exception in the bike world. IIRC it applies to imported bikes, frames, and some components.
An additional complication with tariffs is that they can't be claimed back for exported goods (as is typical for HTS duty). As a result mUSA export is an almost impossibly challenging proposition, and multinational companies have been landing North America bound product in Canadian warehouses until demand pulls product into the US.
This discussion about importing to the United States reminded me that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "withhold release order" on Giant's Taiwanese-made products is still in effect. The latest article I could find suggests there's no clear timeline yet for that to change:
This discussion about importing to the United States reminded me that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "withhold release order" on Giant's Taiwanese-made products is still...
This discussion about importing to the United States reminded me that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "withhold release order" on Giant's Taiwanese-made products is still in effect. The latest article I could find suggests there's no clear timeline yet for that to change:
This discussion about importing to the United States reminded me that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "withhold release order" on Giant's Taiwanese-made products is still...
This discussion about importing to the United States reminded me that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "withhold release order" on Giant's Taiwanese-made products is still in effect. The latest article I could find suggests there's no clear timeline yet for that to change:
Things that I have read basically said that there's usually not much of a timetable to those withhold release orders... Usually, 18 months is considered a minimum..
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing...
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing returns. Less progress, less differentiation, for more money. This naturally favors bigger firms.
Right now what’s happening is that firms that have developed actual structural advantages will be more able to persist and those that don’t are more likely to get squeezed out. This isn’t related to micro brands like frameworks or whatever random bullshit sethimus is going to bring up next. That is pure fashion. I’m talking about for brands that need to sell thousands of units in order to keep the lights on. The advantages I’m talking about are things like retail partners (floor space), manufacturing, etc.
Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes. Or a company like x-lab that can produce a bike at retail that’s half the cost and all the spec of the thing next to it on the floor because of their huge manufacturing capabilities.
How does a company like Pivot, Yeti, Transition, etc compete in this world? It becomes increasingly difficult. Worse still for less established brands like revel, evil, GT etc.
You can debate the strength of one brand over another or whatever, but like jeff.brines said, amflow is now fox’s biggest customer. That’s a huge amount of market share they captured overnight. Because they are backed by a massive company that was able to do a huge R&D push to innovate and then bring those innovations to market at very attractive prices.
What is jimmy’s cool bike brand going to do to respond to the market share they are losing? 5mm longer chainstays next year at 2x the cost of amflow/x-lab/etc? This is what people are talking about when they are saying there are too many brands. Why does brand X exist? Because they are cool guys who ride cool trails in this cool place? Not good enough outside of small fashion brands. Passion can only get you so far.
What is left to western brands? Innovate on less tangible aspects of bike development that only comes to light if you're a passionate (ab)user of the product you're developing and/or selling. And figure out the marketing tactic as you're also essentially on the receiving end of it and understand it from the buyer's perspective.
If you're a big factory you can copy all you want. Or hire consultants to do quick development (suspension layouts, geometries and the like). But if you're not part of the market (Chinese customers are DEFINITELLY a different customer to the western customer) or have a big factory that needs to be running, it's hard to do 'out there' things, those big changes need to come to you from a market acceptability perspective.
I know it looks like I'm dissing China as a producing only, non-riding country. Apparently the local scene is developing rapidly. But that's just the point, even in a fully developed Chinese MTB market their demands will be different to ours and the product fit might not be as good as with western brands driving the development. QED Chinese cars - yeah they're popular and are outselling western brands, but a big part of that is because they are more affordable. Styling and feature wise they might not be the best fit for the western world. Another point on this is BMW 'losing the plot' in recent years and I've been told a few years back that the changes in development (that are now on the market) were driven exclusively by the Chinese market and the needs of the Chinese customer. That was at the time when China was a big market for them, but that has changed recently. Will they refocus their development on the west? How long will that take before we get the first cars designed with the west in mind?
Even with bikes this regionality comes to light a lot. Bikes and big ideas recently had a 'light trail bike' podcast focused around the Allied Fitz. A lot of the discussion revolved around how the bike is light, doesn't have as slack a headtube and has a slacker seattube than some other options because that fits the Bentonville better than the average alpine focused winch and plummet geometry bike.
So I'd say anything small scale, 'out there', locally made and proudly sold because of that stands a chance in the west, but as you mentioned, the middle sized (maybe even the big ones) companies have a lot to fear at this moment. Customer support and perceived trust from the consumers that spare parts and warranty replacements will be readily available without much of a problem is what is left plus the customers that want to ride what Tadej Pogačar won his umpteenth Tour de France on or what Jackson Goldstone won the worlds on last Sunday.
There’s a smaller margin for ‘out there’ that is also ‘good’ as opposed to weird and quirky, so it gets gobbled up fast, ripped off faster.
The Chinese direct brands can offer good support and scale it fairly fast to maintain sales, partly because their margins are so high, and tech is now making the chasm between language and expectations so small.
Even light bike have come a long way with their rims. You don’t need some intermediary who will rebrand and tell you it’s a magic product anymore. Last time I ordered tons from lightbike they didn’t list a permutation I wanted. I emailed, and in under 24h they had added it, at the same price. The rims themselves are as nice and as durable as the enve rims they hang beside. Not on par with WAO, but 60% less so for a bike where I’m not bucking my meat I will take that risk.
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it. If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).
@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question or observation, and it also ties back into the outdoor industry, this is a great place to do so. The line is pretty clear.
Great to see Garmin doing well but I can’t help but think they are the next “blackberry”. I have a hunch the categories itself is really growing. But when their new bike computers look more and more like smartphones, it begs the question if Apple can end up eating their lunch if they wanted to down the road.
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material. I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up. We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit. Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high. The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.
I have a friend that works as a machinist in a non bike related industry and he said availability of aluminum is way down and when they can get it they're paying double to three times what they were paying even a couple of years ago.
I believe it was mentioned here in the recent past, but one of the largest suppliers of raw alu stock is located in the UAE and their operations have been directly impacted by the Iran war. New supply routes overland aren't really a viable option for non-liquid material...
On the topic of the impact of data centers, this is certainly a thing. We wrapped up a battery project earlier this year and obtaining the chips required for the BMS was met with huge leadtimes due to the rapid proliferation of data centers. In the past, the automotive sector was to blame as well with the rise in electric cars, so the cycling industry gets punted to the back of the line once again.
That's fair, I am not defending talking about political opinions/trolling, but politics are a factor in every aspect of our lives. To say, in a discussion of an industry that depends on global economics, that someone doesn't want any political talk is naive.
This forum is certainly not a place for being a shitlord, but let's not kid ourselves. Politics are 100% part of the economic realities facing the bike industry.
I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.
I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.
Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.
I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices.
Dropping out of eMTB entirely: "that's a bold move Cotton".
It's conceivable eMTB will have a much shorter consumer upgrade cycle than analog bikes for a long time because of advancing battery tech. (not to mention removable battery/non-removable battery/range extender configs changing around with current battery tech) I'm totally comfortable owning my lifetime warranty crab link analog bike for 10 years. There's also many consumers that wouldn't be caught dead on an Amflow/Teewing/etc. and want a "real brand"/bike shop for their eMTB.
If said brand thinks they're safe because Amflow would never drop a $3k carbon analog bike...we shall see. My dad's Amflow just landed at our LBS yesterday. (former YT, Canyon eeb owner)
I ended up not having time to write out a post.
But when the discussion was is bikes more like craft beer or auto the answer was a very odd in between.
In auto, outside of insane outside investment like Tesla, or china government (which is one and the same btw, Tesla would be broke if it weren’t for Chinese investment to sell Chinese made teslas to everywhere not the us) there is zero possibility for anyone to enter the industry and compete. This means that industry is essentially left to compete with themselves.
What could change bikes to be more like auto is exactly that. If the Asian factories decide to compete on one brand for world wide market share. They could theoretically turn the bike world into something like dirt bikes where there are only a few players in the world.
I think it’s ultimately unlikely unless Chinese brands essentially force a lot of consolidation. Which I don’t think would be good for consumers or development in the long run.
As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing returns. Less progress, less differentiation, for more money. This naturally favors bigger firms.
Right now what’s happening is that firms that have developed actual structural advantages will be more able to persist and those that don’t are more likely to get squeezed out. This isn’t related to micro brands like frameworks or whatever random bullshit sethimus is going to bring up next. That is pure fashion. I’m talking about for brands that need to sell thousands of units in order to keep the lights on. The advantages I’m talking about are things like retail partners (floor space), manufacturing, etc.
Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes. Or a company like x-lab that can produce a bike at retail that’s half the cost and all the spec of the thing next to it on the floor because of their huge manufacturing capabilities.
How does a company like Pivot, Yeti, Transition, etc compete in this world? It becomes increasingly difficult. Worse still for less established brands like revel, evil, GT etc.
You can debate the strength of one brand over another or whatever, but like jeff.brines said, amflow is now fox’s biggest customer. That’s a huge amount of market share they captured overnight. Because they are backed by a massive company that was able to do a huge R&D push to innovate and then bring those innovations to market at very attractive prices.
What is jimmy’s cool bike brand going to do to respond to the market share they are losing? 5mm longer chainstays next year at 2x the cost of amflow/x-lab/etc? This is what people are talking about when they are saying there are too many brands. Why does brand X exist? Because they are cool guys who ride cool trails in this cool place? Not good enough outside of small fashion brands. Passion can only get you so far.
Life improvement hack:
actually they can’t anymore. take their new crux gravel bike. sold out since introduction without any stock replenishment on the horizon. if a dealer didn’t preorder, they are out of luck.
In some ways Bike 4.0 is already there for carbon rims and wheelset, Light bicycle, Farsport and many more xiamen factories are now well known reputable brand that people have no qualms buying from.
I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value.
Rough numbers, I want to say the overall Mobility side of things is a 50+ billion Euro business. The bike portion is a tiny fraction. Bosch as a whole is in the 90 billion Euro range. Something like 30-40x what Shimano does annually. Rapid development and iteration in the mobility world is certainly looking different than the historic automotive pace, and probably different than power tools and dishwashers, so you may be right.
Purely guessing, but I suspect they're much more concerned with Chinese EVs (BYD) and the like than Avinox/DJI. Bosch itself has an interesting structure, being 90+% held as a charitable non-profit.
The tariffs on Chinese-made bikes are substantially higher than those on bikes made in Indonesia at the moment. Insera can do things with Marin, at scale, thanks to the house brand Polygon and decades of experience hitting certain price points.
Since April there's been an exception to the 50-75% tariff on aluminum and steel bikes imported to the US.
Ironically domestic frame builders still have to pay the tariff on tubing. There's no domestic source for butted tubing, but domestic material costs have risen to match the tariff laden import prices so even if there were demand it's not economically viable to establish one.
I think most domestic frame builders have been getting by with whatever pre-tariff tubes they have available, or by not getting by.
Thanks @pamtbr and @Digit Bikes for educating us on this!
So, tariffs levied on tubing and raw materials are making a major impact on aluminum frame production domestically, and differing tariffs against specific countries are affecting the viability of certain company’s models of complete aluminum bikes and frames.
Yes.
The basics are that in addition to regular HTS duties, and whatever 20ish% tariffs are been applied to most imports recently - the US has an additional 50% tariff on imported aluminum and steel (75% for China).
It's only this additional aluminum/steel tariff which gets the exception in the bike world. IIRC it applies to imported bikes, frames, and some components.
An additional complication with tariffs is that they can't be claimed back for exported goods (as is typical for HTS duty). As a result mUSA export is an almost impossibly challenging proposition, and multinational companies have been landing North America bound product in Canadian warehouses until demand pulls product into the US.
I found this story about Stinner Frameworks enlightening, you might too.
This discussion about importing to the United States reminded me that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection "withhold release order" on Giant's Taiwanese-made products is still in effect. The latest article I could find suggests there's no clear timeline yet for that to change:
https://english.cw.com.tw/article/article.action?id=5032
Woah...
Things that I have read basically said that there's usually not much of a timetable to those withhold release orders... Usually, 18 months is considered a minimum..
What is left to western brands? Innovate on less tangible aspects of bike development that only comes to light if you're a passionate (ab)user of the product you're developing and/or selling. And figure out the marketing tactic as you're also essentially on the receiving end of it and understand it from the buyer's perspective.
If you're a big factory you can copy all you want. Or hire consultants to do quick development (suspension layouts, geometries and the like). But if you're not part of the market (Chinese customers are DEFINITELLY a different customer to the western customer) or have a big factory that needs to be running, it's hard to do 'out there' things, those big changes need to come to you from a market acceptability perspective.
I know it looks like I'm dissing China as a producing only, non-riding country. Apparently the local scene is developing rapidly. But that's just the point, even in a fully developed Chinese MTB market their demands will be different to ours and the product fit might not be as good as with western brands driving the development. QED Chinese cars - yeah they're popular and are outselling western brands, but a big part of that is because they are more affordable. Styling and feature wise they might not be the best fit for the western world. Another point on this is BMW 'losing the plot' in recent years and I've been told a few years back that the changes in development (that are now on the market) were driven exclusively by the Chinese market and the needs of the Chinese customer. That was at the time when China was a big market for them, but that has changed recently. Will they refocus their development on the west? How long will that take before we get the first cars designed with the west in mind?
Even with bikes this regionality comes to light a lot. Bikes and big ideas recently had a 'light trail bike' podcast focused around the Allied Fitz. A lot of the discussion revolved around how the bike is light, doesn't have as slack a headtube and has a slacker seattube than some other options because that fits the Bentonville better than the average alpine focused winch and plummet geometry bike.
So I'd say anything small scale, 'out there', locally made and proudly sold because of that stands a chance in the west, but as you mentioned, the middle sized (maybe even the big ones) companies have a lot to fear at this moment. Customer support and perceived trust from the consumers that spare parts and warranty replacements will be readily available without much of a problem is what is left plus the customers that want to ride what Tadej Pogačar won his umpteenth Tour de France on or what Jackson Goldstone won the worlds on last Sunday.
There’s a smaller margin for ‘out there’ that is also ‘good’ as opposed to weird and quirky, so it gets gobbled up fast, ripped off faster.
The Chinese direct brands can offer good support and scale it fairly fast to maintain sales, partly because their margins are so high, and tech is now making the chasm between language and expectations so small.
Even light bike have come a long way with their rims. You don’t need some intermediary who will rebrand and tell you it’s a magic product anymore. Last time I ordered tons from lightbike they didn’t list a permutation I wanted. I emailed, and in under 24h they had added it, at the same price. The rims themselves are as nice and as durable as the enve rims they hang beside. Not on par with WAO, but 60% less so for a bike where I’m not bucking my meat I will take that risk.
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