2026 Predictions

Biking will continue to be a lot of fun and selling bikes will still be pretty dang rough in the woods and streets.

- 32" will happen 

- More brands will release radial-ish tires

- Gravel suspension gets real/more adoption (and as a result tire widths get narrower, at least for racing)

World Cup Enduro dies - RIP

120-130mm bikes become even more popular

Cheese becomes even more loved, even by people who are lactose intolerant

E-bikes become loved by everyone.

Nothing remarkable happens in 2026.

- the juniors will do well, but won't be a smooth transition to elite. 

- Jackson and Loic will continue to dominate, but a healthy Amaury will mix it up. Henri will be a regular on the podium

- Vali on a Commencal and a stable team will be tough to beat. Being Canadian, I hope Gracey has another year like last year. 

- the Specialized Demo is released. A new precedent on how expensive DH bikes can be is set

- more park/freeride specific bikes (think Transition Bottle Rocket, Commencal FRS, etc) are released. Hopefully Kona comes out to play with some stuff that goes back to their roots. 

- women's freeride continues to progress at an unreal pace

- Brage drops something mind blowing to announce his new bike sponsor. Continues to be the best in freeride mtb

- more incremental changes and updates to bike tech, but nothing super crazy. More electronic stuff that doesn't need to be electronic? Someone will make a 32"/29" mullet dh bike, because science?

I think you're right on the 120-130mm bikes. I think bikes are going to divide into short travel bikes, ebikes, and DH bikes. Maybe not 2026 but at some point.

And I bring this up because some folks don't know (literally a friend of mine was telling me how much they miss parmigiano reggiano but they haven't had it since they've become lactose intolerant): Aged hard cheeses have less lactose than younger and/or softer cheeses. If a person is intolerant, they might still be able to have parmesan, Romano, Manchego, and other aged hard cheeses. The aging process in cheese denatures some of that lactose that would be in younger cheese. Something that I thought was obvious changed my friend's lactose intolerant life because they tried and could tolerate hard cheeses after thinking that had to give up cheese completely. So now I bring it up every time someone mentions cheese and lactose intolerance.

Cheese sidebar over. Bikes are sick.

I support cheese

I just want to see more gearbox development, especially for eMTB. I'm still hazy on why the assistance motor (with a gearbox) is not the entire gearbox so far. Like does it have to be... 2 then? Or one much larger one? Or are gearboxes still so bad for trail riding it's just not a thing yet? When will they become better and have less drag?

For normal bikes I'd love to see more Dartmoor Jibbirds and Transition Bottlerockets and NS Sodas but I won't hold my breath.

I just hope the industry continues to recover and we can embrace weird bikes again. Keep biking fun. Instead of making everything a 'race bike'. Keep the single speed rigid steel rigs and slopestyle weapons and what not.

Matt Jones just made a video about where bikes have gone on how you don't NEED a DH or DJer like you did back in the day. The trail bikes we have, both hardtail and FS, are often designed with enough margin for error you can survive with them at a jump track, pump track, XC race, bike park, etc.

It really speaks to how well the sort of mid travel mullet bike works. Even more so with the new adjustability trend. A flip chip and a diff rear wheel and your trail bike can go from more downcountry to more downduro... Or if you're big mountain only you can go from DH to enduro with a Rallon. And the bike's still good enough to win 3 world cups on! Sooo

1. 32" definitely being a thing. I'm not the guy to say it, I got my first 29er this year, but they're definitely going to be a thing and it won't take long before gravity orientated riding notices a little more.

2. Probably way off on this one, but marijuana businesses sponsoring more riders. It would be like an energy drink branding exercise. Of course I'm talking US riders probably racing continental series, but there are companies that span more than one state now and for outside sponsorship you could do worse.

3. More rad trails being built all over. I don't love bentonville or their method by any means but I just saw a crazy trail center in Tulsa that was opened recently that probably would've never happened without their influence. Locally they're starting to build and sanction some illegal builds that have bigger jumps and it's about time, I don't think it's the bentonville influence at all at my local but it's nice to see lots of different places ending up in a place where they're more open to building rad trails.

4. Bikes being the coolest forever. 

I could see a marijuana company sponsoring a free ride event.  “Hey we know everyone is doing it already, let’s just sell a bunch of merch and we happen to co own a taco truck we will have onsite also” 

Not sure it will happen but things I want to see in 2026. 

1. Fox patent gear box on a bike

2. Pivot enduro mid pivot with dw dual idler system 

3. More mid power e-bikes with bigger internal batteries

4. yeti sixfinity pedal bikes

5. Asa dominate elites year 1

6. New Bike Suspension Kinematics utilizing electronic shocks

7. More unique wood features on local trails

8. Smaller cassette 12 speed transmission

9. Resurgence of enduro multi day races and maybe even some blind races

Biking will be a lot of fun in 2026. 

Side knobs will be scrubbed while riding Enduro because the spirit of Enduro will never die, like ACDC says, NEVER GONNA DIE!!! TV Enduro may fade away, but that won't stop us from riding up to ride down fast and hard on our backyard tracks, all of us, every single Vital mtb junkie. 

Long travel trail bikes will suddenly become cooler than ever because they are being discontinued and we all knew they were cool but we already have one and don't need another one just yet. Who cares about climbing slow most of the time. Its good training for descending fast. 

Cheese will continue to be one of life's great pleasures. Especially truffle flavored sheeps milk cheeses from Spain and hard ones too with less lactose. 

Happy New Year Vital MTB'rs‼️



 

Gee Atherton releases another vid that defies the laws of physics and the forces of nature

Downhill season is going to be hectic

32" doesn't make as much progress as some are expecting (though I want one)

1. More brands make radial tyres (got a sneak peak at a Specialized Cannibal radial)

2. 32in xc/trail bikes come out (Scott is already ready to go)

3. 32in xc bike wins a worldcup

4. Asa vs Jackson vs Loic for the title in Elite, Vali wins easily this year on Commencal

5. More 1000w ebikes with DJI or equivalent motors

We carry on to ride bikes for the reason we started  as it’s fun

Enduro dies at a local level it becomes like gran fondo- participation event but there’s less races

Festival style events with bikes, some racing and partying get bigger

More e-bikes 

Brands reduce making 160/170/180mm bikes (enduro) as e-bikes fill this gap

120/130 bikes more popular if you ride a non motorised bike

Less dh riders able to get a ride and rightly so if they aren’t good enough

Less Instagram “ambassadors” with industry cuts

Riding bikes will still be fun

Media starts to discuss possibility that riders are doping on non-organized ultra races (Tour Divide, etc)

Cheese culture begins to infiltrate TheRadavist community like they discovered it or something. Ultra compact $300 cottage industry cheese-making kits for your monthlong bikepacking adventure become a thing.

1. Brands will start to move away from a high pivot platform especially on their enduro bikes

2. There's going to be a resurgence in the trail/all mountain bike category (120mm - 140mm)

3. Enduro racing will continue to fade at a World Cup level but will still thrive at the National level

4. DH Racing will continue to be an extremely compelling series to follow

5. More E Bikes from obscure brands 

6. Bikes are fucking fun and will continue to be no matter what you decide to ride

2019 Specialized Enduro still not getting an update but being up to date nevertheless 🫣

I know this deal is expected to take up to 18 months to close, but, Netflix/WBD deal is something to keep an eye on. The future of seeing live MTB racing is in oligarchs hands.

1)  Someone wins a WC XCO on 32" wheels.

2)  Gracey Hemstreet goes undefeated.

3)  Relatively affordable badass e-bikes that I will secretly covet but publicly shame while on my singlespeed.

The PB editors' answers are boring as hell anyway...

Regarding the answers, I predict:

- someone will give Avinox some competition regarding a light and powerful E-bike system
- entry level suspension gets better on more fronts (thanks, RockShox!)
- more bang for the buck on lower end bikes: good geometry, better suspension, better brakes, decent transmission, mediocre wheels
- more SL e-bikes will be released, that makes you question whether you really need a full power one
- new young guns will rise in DH racing
- Vali won't be so dominant anymore, as she won't find a groove so easily and the competition gets fiercer
- somebody will make a 32” DH bike just for the sake of it and everybody will roll their eyes (as they should)
- then somebody will make a 32” mullet DH bike with a 29” wheel in the rear
- of course, somebody will make a 32” super mullet DH bike with a 27.5” wheel in the rear and people will rave about it
- more electronic gadgets will pop up on all sort of parts and gear (shoes with a cadence sensor? yessir!)
- more chain damping devices, a la DT Swiss DEG/e.13 Sidekick
- more retro-themed bikes and motorsport livery inspired bikes on special events, like Worlds
- Pinkbike will still peek at Team Rumors and write ”articles” based on this, sometimes giving credit to the people on the forum, but not the site that cultivates this passion

Cheers,
Mx

I'll give you a 2027 predition - motor gearbox units (possibly some CVT) will go mainstream on ebikes.

I think we will see more gearbox bikes in 2026 as well as a resurgence of smaller companies coming in. Maybe, just maybe a bit more US manufacturing also. 

Hydration style packs for on trail butter churning. Start your ride at the dairy, charge up and down the local hills and at the end of the ride you have the freshest, best butter ever.

More compliant carbon bits. Burlier XC components. Dampers with the ability to generate more damping force. 

That’s really innovative!

I’ve been toying with a way to use my rear shock to generate power. PERHAPS I could skip the power and make a modular potato-based shock lockout?

It’s like two bikes in one, basically. Short travel on the climb and then you can start descending when you’ve earned the carbs, the potatoes are mashed, and the shock travel increases

I’m going to ride more in 2026 than I did this year. I will probably break some stuff, hopefully just flat out wear out some other stuff. 

32” for sale to the public by September? Avinox will take over most of the mtb e-bike market with whatever their v2 is. More layoffs at the big bike brands if foot traffic at my local shop is any indication. Another big bankruptcy or two, but no founders resurrecting them this time.