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Syntace and Liteville Bikes have filed for bankruptcy in Germany. Previous Pierer ties may not have helped.
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I think it’s funny how a lot of people on here been knocking ai in marketing. When a lot of people I know in marketing were the first to start using ai to assist them in their work. And I’d argue a lot of marketing in general lacks any genuineness already. I swear a lot of marketing students in college were ai generated at birth.
The real danger of ai in marketing is the algorithms that dictate what ads you see will be even more pervasive and effective than they already are today. Same for news. Same for social media. We run the risk of becoming drones with little free purpose. That and Ai will wipe out the majority of white collar work. The majority of jobs will be things where robots are just too expensive to do what a human can do with their hands. And where ai determines we’d rather spend the money to see a person rather than a computer screen.
"The majority of jobs will be things where robots are just too expensive to do what a human can do with their hands." Ohhh man, we're all about to get a pretty rude awaking on this front.
I really cannot understate how much of a wrecking ball AI will be across all industries, and I say that because I'm in the AI industry for work. Hearing what our investors are saying, and how we are positioning our company internally has me legit scared for a lot of people's jobs. White color is by far going to be the first hit, and you're already seeing that in spades; however, the shear money involved in manufacturing and skilled labor means that there's a huge bullseye on those industries for AI "innovation." I can think of at least 2 other start ups in the physical AI space, and a couple large companies in the eurozone looking at the space as well.
What does this mean for bikes? I think it's only going to exacerbate the dumbbell problem bikes have as there will be an even greater concentration of wealth to the folks at the top of the AI pyramid. It could also mean that manufacturing cost will plummet as well, though that hitting the bike space is probably 5-10 years out at least minimum.
Random spicy Hot Take time? Countries seriously need to start talking about universal basic incomes and reforming their tax code away from things like individual's income and more towards corporate taxes (and maybe even VAT or Sales Taxes).
Automation in the mechanical sense is already wildly efficient. And yes while it means slightly fewer jobs it makes those jobs infinitely more productive and therefore better paying. It also means a cheaper product. Which hopefully means more customers. So ideally those lost jobs are replaced with other better jobs.
With ai not only is it not creating new jobs. It will also drive down the pay market as people take the work they can find.
World is already a lot of haves and have nots with the number one factor being what you are born with. And while that’s become less true in the 20th century it’s becoming more true in the 21st.
"So ideally those lost jobs are replaced with other better jobs."
Just remember, the car didn't make more better jobs for horses.
Call me pessimistic if you'd like, but I'm genuinely unconvinced with people who claim that AI will somehow mean more better jobs for humans. Maybe better jobs for some, but not more of them. For a majority of human labor force, we're approaching the "horse vs. car" moment.
On the flip side I could be completely wrong and we'll all work 15 hour work weeks and have SO much more time for riding bikes. I'd be on board with this future.
Sounds a lot like what was said about 20 or so years ago when America started to off-shore a lot of jobs.. Improving the global economy and American will get better jobs..
Look, the last thing I’ll say about it is that I generally hope I’m wrong. If I’m wrong, then the world’s a better place and all my concerns are unfounded and really good things happen to humanity. I want to be wrong, however, if I’m not wrong, then oh boy are we all in for a world of hurt.
In the end, the truth and future is gonna lay somewhere in the middle between the two extremes. All I know is that we should probably be adults and really have good serious discussions about how this impacts all of our lives.
I had a long reply written for this, but broadly discussing AI is probably outside the scope of this thread. There are really only two relevant tie-ins here:
1. How companies should be able to do more with less, and how that could (or should) put downward pressure on margins, potentially making things deflationary. (Don’t hold your breath.)
2. How the current data center capex cycle, set against shaky conviction in model economics, could eventually blow up and have second- or third-order effects on industries like bikes, just as the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis did in their time. I'm actually betting on this.
I’m in grad school studying this stuff and, admittedly, one of those annoying “AI guys,” but diving into it here would derail the thread and probably make a lot of eyes glaze over.
Everyone’s got an AI hot take anyway. That’s what X is for, right? 😉
(Seriously though, I love this topic. It just deserves its own space.)
I’d imagine most horses at this point in time have much better lives than when they were doing the world’s labor. And in my world I don’t exactly see people excited to do the job of a food processor, blender, or a dish machine. Instead my cooks spend their time efficiently and therefore get paid much better. Our costs are lower and therefore accessible to more customers. Hopefully meaning another well paid cook who can afford to eat out at the type of place they cook at.
What’s funny is it’s actually my job that will disappear in your average corporate restaurant first. A computer once trained can do the ordering, labor scheduling, finding purveyors, customer interaction, quality control, etc far better and easier than a robot can walk into any kitchen and work a sauté station. And even in restaurants with creative chefs a lot of the daily work will be automated so you just do the training and qc the programs are capable of doing themselves in a non creative setting.
And I doubt your average diner is going to care in the slightest. Especially not the type that eat at big corporate restaurants.
I do fathom an ai McDonald’s ceo with an ai management team, building fully automated McDonald’s in the future. And I really doubt it’s going to change the average McDonald’s experience on the consumer side very much. There will always be a place for ma and pa food vendors on the other hand. Just not sure what that space will look like.
The thing that scares me about people only having to work 15 hours a week, not having to work, or be unemployed is that bored people are dangerous people. Too much time to focus on tribalism (it's taking a political partisan form these days). Humans evolved to work, not to sit around.
I will concede that you are correct, a lot of horses now have some pretty cushy jobs compared to their ancestors.
I also present you the following graph taken from the following source: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254456029_The_Economic_Impact_…
"The real danger of ai in marketing is the algorithms that dictate what ads you see will be even more pervasive and effective than they already are today"
The algorithms that dictate what ads you see are referred to as programmatic advertising and are based on market dynamics, constructed from an economic field known as Auction Theory. Programmatic advertising is more like a toy example of the financial markets than anything else, where the house (market maker) sets prices to maximize revenue and market participants bid for ad placements. The level of knowledge work required to operate these types of markets is not trivial or routine. There has been a lot of recent growth in this field, but it is tied to partnerships between those seeking to advertise (i.e. brands), market makers, and those who advertise (i.e. Hulu ads, Amazon TV, Netflix, etc). Like the financial markets, this type of work is performed by a skilled team, whose ability is not readily replaced by AI.
No doubt this type of work is aided by the use of ai tools - but the use of tools and a complete take over is very, very far apart.
In an attempt to get back on topic, I think the makers and the doers are the ones that will benefit from ai. The white-collar jobs that are paper pushers will be affected the most. Perhaps it's coincidence, but I've enjoyed seeing a lot more home brew bikes pop up and especially companies like frameworks, reeb, and jackalope etc.
Tell that to Mr. Whipple. (Twilight zone reference)
I think it would just leave time for people to invest in activities or ‘work’ on things that genuinely interest them and not just labor to survive.
People would be free to pursue art, music, build and create physical things. It think it would make the world better (given time).
I would love to get into fine woodworking. I don’t want to woodwork after I’ve been doing graduate school work for 50 hrs a week. I also don’t want to woodwork to put food on my table. If I only had to work 20 hrs a week, I’d be making some gorgeous furniture just because it was intrinsically rewarding.
I have a real hard time believing AI is going to result in some sort of utopia for the masses. There's enough money right now that we could all get some level of UBI and be working less and spending more time on our passion projects. But when have the ultra wealthy EVER wanted to part with even a little bit more of their money? If we just give them a few more tax breaks to pay for their data centers and help subsidize the cost of the electricity and water to run them so they can become trillionaires, THEN they'll be willing to help out the masses.
People have been astroturfed into believing LLMs can do things they can't possibly do. There isn't going to be some utopia that exists in a post-AI world because AI simply can't do that much and there isn't a post-AI world where AI does everything. Yes, it's improving, but there is still a hard ceiling of what it is able to do and that ceiling is not going anywhere, nor are the numerous issues they face.
In some industries, the product created by AI is OK and acceptable, think marketing for instance. Large scale data analytics is another one. These things can make a person more efficient at their job and arguably replace several people doing one job. In many others that are being pitched, though, they just can't accomplish the task including (dangerously, at times) those in my own industry where the results of AI driven products/firms are very bad.
The problem is exactly what you see here, the perception that it can do things that it can't drives sales, which results in poor work results that can be dangerous in certain industries or sectors.
Yeah, that's it in a nutshell. AI is going to improve margins for large employers by eliminating white collar jobs and allowing a 24 hour work day - computers don't sleep. The effect on the bike business will be a reduction in consumers who are willing to purchase mid-tier product. There will be a "UBI special" utility bike at one end and full custom bling machines at the other end. Barbell city, baby!*
*Yes, I do read a lot of dystopian speculative fiction. Currently waiting for the Jackpot scenario.
I'm locking this thread for a day or two. Not trying to be rude, I'd actually love to jump in myself, but we've gone way off the rails. None of this ties back to the bike or outdoor industry directly.
If you want to continue the AI discussion, please start a new thread, take it to X/Twitter, or head over to LinkedIn. Those platforms are built for this kind of speculation (and overflowing with this sort of banter). I want to keep this space focused on industry-specific topics.
Nothing personal,I genuinely enjoy these conversations, this is just a "thread hygiene" thing.
I can reset the conversation real quick, as I have a question.
Trying to understand e-bikes better and things got real messy real fast when trying to learn who was making motors for Specialized, Giant, and SRAM... Yes the Brose-Yamaha discussion (I'm sure it happened somewhere but I missed it).
So I'm sure their goal is to make a seamless transition where nothing 'changes' and all 3 brands are now running normally under Yamaha entirely. But is that likely to be the case? Would this mean there is some inherent level of 'risk' in buying any of these bikes? (I'm assuming it's at least inherently slightly more risky than buying a Bosch or even a DJI/TQ/Fazua/Shimano at the moment...)
Also wouldn't mind hearing if y'all thought both the Brose and Yamaha motors were reliable and performed well? Are they more so on par with Bosch or more so on par with Shimano and the other lesser motors?
Brose motors are kinda bad...
But they have quite a big market with its first gen, "alu" motor, as they are supplier to all bicycle sharing systems I know off (That use a central motor)
Their contract with specialized for the S-MAG and subsecuent versions of the motor should warrant supply of new units for long enough. I think SRAM is just trying to position themselves in the powertrain arena until they launch their own ebike system... soonish?
I'm posting this here under the premise of 'what does this business think they can achieve in our space?'
Rivian cofounders have launched a new e-bike/micro-mobility brand and it's... something. Looks like the 'performance' edition is going to come with Magic Marys? Should go well with 12mm of 'wheel travel' on those 24" rims. TM-B – ALSO
There have been so many examples of 'newcomer thinks they can revolutionize bikes' that disappear instantly when they find out it is more difficult than they imagined.
Another cool example of companies pulling together to fill the void left by the closure of CSS (makers of carbon rims for several brands):
https://www.vitalmtb.com/news/press-release/evil-bikes-partners-nobl-wheels-continue-warranty-support-loopholes-wheelsets
Those look sick! Throw a couple in the back of the IDbuzz and let’s get $230 brunch!
I’ll go with Utility Topframe and off-road package for the regen and traction control (does the Launch model not have those features?).
Strava has voluntarily dropped their lawsuit against Garmin.
https://www.dcrainmaker.com/2025/10/strava-drops-voluntarily-lawsuit-ag…
@jeff.brines for the next podcast or discussion here (unless I'm forgetting and its been covered before)...
So the big guys (Specialized, Trek) went vertical a few years back and bought a lot of retail shops. They moved out most of the competitor inventory so customers are limited to in-house P&A brands or heading to another shop.
How has that worked out for all involved?
What am I even looking at here? All those bike models look ai generated, or like a concept instead of a product. E bikes as Tech toys was horrible for the bike industry.
Someone tell Leo Kokkonen that the investors at Nobl have no obligation to Evil’s customers so this actually can’t be done
WTAF
My guess is that NOBL isn't footing the billl. Evil is getting the rims (maybe at a discount) to replace the loopholes as needed. NOBL gets good press at helping to support the wheels, Evil has a partner to help support, and long term NOBL I am guessing becomes an OE partner for EVIL as well.
Really doubt that NOBL is warrantying rims without being reimbursed in some way.
Not just bikes, I think they will probably fare well with alternate micromobility offerings like this. These are frequently being used in cities as delivery vehicles — often clogging bike lanes.
Also (no pun intended), I work in Berkeley, and the Venn diagram overlap of monied parents on e-cargo/transit bikes and also owning electric cars picking up their kids from the private schools is very, very high.
(This should probably go into a different thread, sorry)
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