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I can certainly see the used market in the US revisiting covid era prices if he follows through with all the tariffs.
I did hear a theory that Trumps econ team was actually hoping to push the economy into a recession to encourage the fed to lower interest rates so that the national debt could be refinanced at a low interest rate. The US Gov is basically broke, and continuing to print and hand out money is a poor solution (Argentina). The current $7 trillion dollar national debt was largely incurred with unprecedented extremely low interest rates, those rates are no longer in effect, so a refi and subsequent servicing of such a massive debt is a major problem for the USA in 2025. Once debt is refi'd, maybe the money handouts will begin, juicing the econ in time for mid term elections and in prep for the next prez election?
A Cuban style MTB community would be cool in practice, especially a POS race series, where bikes must pass the $500 test, like 24hrs of Lemons car racing series.
Wild times for all. Riding bikes is a wonderful refuge from the doom and gloom of the world, and I like fresh tires and a well running bike, so I will continue spending cash on expendables and comfy riding clothes.
I've floated this idea a few times. The issue with Trump’s approach is that tariffs are likely to push CPI higher, not lower. Maybe that's temporary—maybe we adjust, enter a recession, rates fall, and he gets a window to refinance the debt. To be fair, one of the smarter ideas he had was the 2019 proposal to issue 100-year bonds while rates were historically low. That could’ve been a generational opportunity to restructure the debt.
I’ll also admit I’m one of those people who sees the national debt as one of the biggest long-term threats to the U.S. I’m not a fan of Ray Dalio as a fund manager (or person), but he has two books that lay out, pretty convincingly, why our current spending trajectory is unsustainable and why addressing it matters.
That said, I don’t think Trump is the one who’s actually going to fix it.
or you could just tax the rich, but what do i know, right?
This is an economic Kobayashi Maru for sure.
probably enforcing the existing tax code would be enough... but yeah, carried interest is complete BS, and loads of other shenanigans that should be obliterated.
I know better than to engage with this, but no, that won't fix the problem.
I've put a lot of time into actually trying to understand what this might do and what it really means. There are loopholes in the current tax system that should be closed, no question. Those loopholes unfortunately do not add up to anything close to the deficit.
Everyone out there going "wealth tax" or "tax unrealized gains" has no idea what they are saying. Its equally as dumb as the tariff thing, because it will have second and third order impacts we all aren't willing to stomach.
In any event, I'd like to try and steer this back to mountain biking. On that note, I'm just about done with a fun little web app I'll release here that should let us easily track publicly traded companies related to mountain biking in one easy to look at place. I'm also going to include things like a newsfeed, maybe an earnings calendar, big macro indicators etc.
Is there anything you all would like to see? Any sources you'd like me to include in the news aggregator I might miss? Any twitter accounts or social personalities you want to see? I can send all the weeks news to an LLM alongside stock performance for a weekly summary, too.
I also need a name...
New member here, but my understanding of the tariff situation is that trump clearly doesn't understand how they work and he thinks he can get all three benefits of tariffs simultaneously. He thinks he can implement reciprocal tariffs on trading partners, protect industry, and increase taxable revenue. But as we all know really only one of those goals is achievable at any moment,maybe two if the situation is absolutely perfect.
The big goal trump and his billionaire cabinet want to achieve most is replacing income tax revenue with tariff revenue so they can give themselves a huge tax cut. They want to control industry and the government but have the common man footing the bills.
Back to bikes, a Cuba style bike culture suits me fine, my newest rig is a 2018.
Jokernomics is the perfect name for how the "reciprocal" tariffs were calculated.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93gq72n7y1o
Trump is causing termoil to the markets.
His background friends/backers/string pullers gain from this and make out like bandits while the rest of the population watches along in disbelief that this is happening.
Bro def rides an Ellsworth....
I think they all come from the same office chair factory.
I'm surprised Steve Dubner hasn't done an MTB industry show yet. Maybe he's reading this and you'll be his guest.🙂
Also, how come no one is mentioning bond vigilantes?
Honored, but be careful what you wish for. I will go full Adrian Brody at the award ceremony.
If orangeasaurus was really trying to fix the US debt problem, he wouldn’t let IRS agents get fired that have a 26x ROI on their salary when recovering taxes from the rich.
I’ve said this before, but it’s relevant again. When the first Trump Taxes were added to foreign made aluminum, we were manufacturing bike frames in the US at GG. With the manufacturing already in operation, it absolutely hurt us, as the aluminum with “Made in the USA” printed on the bar stock went up 30% in price.
These tax increases camouflaged with a different word do not help domestic manufacturing. What would help domestic manufacturing, from my experience, would be decreasing housing and healthcare costs, and adding tax credits for manufacturing in the US.
100%
Housing security (and food security) creates healthy and productive societies. Every crime statistic goes down when people can afford a place to live.
Want innovation today? Go ten years in the past and feed and nurture the brains and bodies of the newest thinkers.
The second best time to plant a tree is today.
Care to share some reasons why you don't like Ray Dalio?
The Brinator.
just look what the swiss do, there is a wealth tax here and i only pay like 20% tax rate, vat is just at 8.1% and no infrastructure is crumbling, everybody earns A LOT more than the rest in europe and the billionaires stay
"it will have second and third order impacts we all aren't willing to stomach."
Don't threaten us with a good time. Also who exactly is this "we"?
Even the most outspoken proponents of tariffs are running around on news programs right now basically saying tariffs are a good idea even if trump and his buddies are a bunch of fools.
Personally I do think there should be both incentives and penalties to push corporations to manufacture more domestically. I do not think the “free international market” is working well for most people and I think the whole point of government is to make sure the economy is working well for most people. I think tariffs are a perfectly reasonable way to do exactly that. To push both international corporations AND American CONSUMERS towards something with a made in USA sticker. But what Donald trump is doing is dumb. And I think his whole schtick is so that business leaders and politicians from foreign governments have to come to him and negotiate whatever his end goals are. I think it’s clear from his implementation he doesn’t care much at all about American jobs and wages. You can’t tax Mexican produce and not effect restaurant and grocery bills. You can’t tax Canadian lumber and lower housing costs. Not that there is a valid reason to tax Canada at all since there is no reason for them to become an American state.
but yeah the economy is going to do some wierd stuff from all this turmoil and not much will be good.
Does anyone want me to actually unpack why I disagree with sethimus (and others) on this point? I'd really like to get back to bikes + economy in this thread but if we want to go down the rabbit hole on this one, I'm more than happy to.
Hi y'all,
Longtime reader, though I rarely post.
Some context
I run a small non-bike company in Sheridan, WY.
We make a ton in house, import a little, and outsource a bunch to other companies in the US.
We do about 40% of our sales in Canada.
These tariffs will put the brakes on the entire economy. My business is well positioned to make 100% of our product in the US, which would seemingly be a boon for us. But who is going to be able to buy it? Will our customers in Canada want to buy our products at the same levels as they have for years? Doubtful. Will many of our US customers have the money to buy our stuff? Unfortunately not.
If the prime rate goes up our cost of doing business goes up. The tariff and prime rate situation might put us out of business.
I read The World is Flat by Thomas Friedman a decade or so ago. In it Friedman outlines that the US enjoyed major manufacturing advantages in the 50 years following WW2 as our economy was geared for production and our cities weren't devastated by war. Now the the world economy is so interconnected, the US no longer holds that advantage. Until recently we held advantages of a creative and educated population with relatively easy access to capital. Does the US really want to compete with China, Vietnam, etc. for manufacturing jobs? It's a race to the bottom. I'd rather be the guy designing, iterating, and marketing products for markets I know well. The US is chock full of capable people designing, iterating, and marketing products and IMHO these people will not move willingly into factory work even if it were to materialize instantly. I do a lot of manufacturing out of necessity and I'm constantly trying to figure out ways to do less or to have someone else do it.
Indeed, manufacturing jobs have immense dignity; but as a guy who spends hundreds of hour a year welding and machining, the romance of it starts to wane when you're perpetually covered in millscale and metal shavings. I like having a job that requires as much of my mind as it does my body, it feels good to make the thing you've designed; but it feels good to make the first 10. The 100th or 1000th part isn't as exciting.
In my experience businesses thrive in stability; I can figure it out as long as things aren't to volatile and I have enough money to survive the ups and downs. The volatility of this administration is a disaster for small businesses. I'm all for more of a meritocracy, but this is like the opposite of a meritocracy. It feels like the capable risk taking little guys are gonna get killed off under this administration's disastrous leadership.
One of the many badges of dishonor they'll have to own is killing the very businesses they claim to support. This volatility only allows the billionaire class to thrive, billionaires can buy while everything is bottomed out and ride the long slow climb back up.
Sorry if this is a rant or not on topic, I'm just pissed that so many in my country were deceived by this obvious conman.
I’m all for hearing a well reasoned argument; I think it’d be educational.
Thank you
Via the EC Discord, online retailers are already pop-up warning US buyers that tariffs and customs fees will likely impact the final price of bike goods.
Jeff- for your app, might be cool to add a bit of a market tracker. Choose some basic component of complete bikes as benchmarks and then follow pricing changes overtime. I just bought some Shimano road pedals as I have been putting them off and are a long term investment, I will now be following their pricing over the long term to see what happens. Would be a fun college business school project to track all this... alas I must actually work for a living(damn capitalism)
Thanks for sharing. I mostly agree but especially on the meritocracy aspect. One thing I've noticed over my career, though, is that the American advantage of creativity and/or education is waning/disappearing/gone. It takes a brief look into the graduating classes at STEM programs at US schools, or even chatting about in a F500 work place, or even a gander on LinkedIn. Top talent is no longer solely American and if we are to follow meritocracy, than Americans will begin to no longer fill out the key positions in American firms as the process continues.
Even for the top talent that is American, these are not the people that will shift into manufacturing roles. I believe it would be the unskilled workforce that would see the largest change. Regardless, I agree that a key for capitalism is innovation (creative or otherwise), and our country is better served to enable innovation for our citizens to better our country - whether it should be done thru an increase in manufacturing, I'm not sure, but it is "a" way. (Assumption: manufacturing requires skill development, more people with higher skill development leads to more innovation)
Moreover... Since there's been a hint to Dalio's work and his nwo theory, it might be worth adding Marx's critiques on capitalism to the mix, particularly his commentary on means of production, the use of the working class to create surplus value from ownership of said means, and his 'capitalist's dilemma'.
But yes, unfortunately, I believe more companies will be shutting down in the next 12-24 months.
The house always wins. Aka the market makers.
I noticed that DVO has already started doing that to warn non-US customers as well. So, yeah, happening on both sides.
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