Remember the show Iron Chef, where the chefs had 60 minutes to whip something up and whatever didn't come out just right had to be...
Remember the show Iron Chef, where the chefs had 60 minutes to whip something up and whatever didn't come out just right had to be served anyway? The food was usually pretty good, but the presentation sometimes missed the mark. That's how some of my writing is (at best) going to go in the coming months (or even years). My life has changed immensely over the last 12 months, and the time I have for side quests is now significantly limited. When I say I have an hour to do something, that's probably all I have.
Much of my Substack writing will fall into this "time bracketed" bucket. I enjoy the challenge, and I won't post stuff just to post stuff, but I have to put hard stops on my time in ways I never used to. Hopefully I'll get better at this as time goes on, but you may see some rough-around-the-edges stuff, like that thumbnail, which was indeed awful.
I'm hopeful people still find value in it, and as long as they do, I'll keep posting. I will also very likely push to posting about the broader economy, which of course impacts our little niche of the industrial world. If you're looking for perfection (not that I was ever close to it), or for someone who is anti-AI, I'd encourage you to keep looking.
Much of my career now revolves around various forms of AI. It's also something I was "around" well before the ChatGPT moment in November 2022, so my perspective is probably less doomer than many others in this thread. Plus, whatever my philosophical thoughts may be (they're very complicated), the proverbial matrix multiplication toothpaste is out of the tube, and we're not going back to a pre-"Attention Is All You Need" era.
Finally, I welcome anyone who disagrees with my ideas. That's a big part of why I put this forum and thread on a different level than literally any other thread I've been part of on the internet. What I don't love is nitpicking over immaterial things (I never promised good visuals) or more personal jabs, even if in jest, around something I consider pretty serious (getting married).
Again, I could treat this more like YouTube, but I like how personal this place is, so I'll take things a little more personally than I otherwise might.
Cheers, Jeff
Side note, if anyone wants to actually hear my more nuanced take on AI, how I'm using it, what I'm building and what I think the future is likely to look like I'm happy to share, but its a bit beyond the edges of this thread...and I'm guessing 95% of y'all are sick of another "AI hot take".
As you like to use AI, may I suggest to ask this question: "Who was CEO of Fox Factory before Dennison and what is this person up to now?"
I am not trying to blame anybody specifically, but management changes often change the whole business strategy ... I always liked Larry as a person.
and @Brian_Peterson - have they actually shipped any significant quantities of units yet? it just feels like since their launch, there's only been a very small sprinkling of bikes shipped and no brand has had anything available aside from a couple bikes.
some avinox curiousity. canyon just launched their first bike with it (and 3 more by jan 19). pre-order only with "shipping on jan 19, expected delivery in february." i checked the amflow site and noticed their PX doesn't ship until mid december. when we did our reviews, shipping dates were early october IIRC. now they're december. canyon isn't until january. is anyone aware if recent batches of amflows have been shipped?
if bikes haven't gone out, why do we think there are so many delays? i'm not trying to be conspiratorial, but are manufacturing/shipping costs not worth it right now, so they're just waiting it out? does anyone have any insight into other avinox bikes and their actual availability?
i find these delays really interesting and i'd be bummed if i was a consumer who ordered months ago.
In Canada at least, I'm hearing nothing but delays and issues finding parts. Happy to be corrected, but that seems to be the case. Amflow's endless delayed and no real experience with anything from any other brands landing for the most part other than forbidden.and Teewig. Sure is a strange one.
And again, with each brand responsible for their own supply of parts, I can see that going pretty sideways. If Avinox falls behind in any way with spare parts production forecasting, customers are going to come up short I feel. I've already had this issue with one of the bigger motor suppliers using a single 3rd party in each country having issues getting parts because they ordered their usually supply of parts, that supplier came up short having already shipped the amount of displays made elsewhere. During this time the parts SKU changed and the backorder canceled. The order was resubmitted by the distributor and was missed again because of a communication issue. In the end, 7 months and a season of riding had passed for this customer, who was rightly pretty over it.
If they're suppling 20+ company's, and then individual country based offices and distribution arms, I can see things going pretty sideways if they're already coming up a bit short.
In the front range I'm seeing some orbeas show up, and in other forums people are seeing avinox bikes trickle in since august or so. Trickle being the operative word. Lots of delays worldwide.
I've an order in for a wild lt so I have a vested interest. My order should be here in January.i notice there is sporadic stock littered around the UK but not a huge amount, they have the exact bike I'm getting in biketart but I'm wary of 1 losing my deposit and 2 not supplied by a "local" shop to me so potentiall issues for warranty.
Heard that manufacturing of bikes and components is taking a hit. Data centers are being built all over. These feature components. Components are made and assembled in factories. Factory workers have a choice where they work and follow the pay. Data centers are paying better than cycling industry factories, so now there’s a worker shortage at the base level. Yeah ai and data centers. Next round of price increases.
Escape Collective Geek Warning just did an interesting podcast.
I'm a member but I think the first part is free to all (but I can't post that link). Maybe someone else can.
The TL:DR is that there's a forecast shortage of bike mechanics in Europe. Based on the report linked below. They go into some of the reasons around that that likely won't be news to this audience (low pay, lack of career path, enthusiast workforce).
They also claim though that they have seen occurrences where bike shops are under charging customers for labour (on complex bike tasks) just to avoid sticker shock... This is with respect to road bikes more but never the less an interesting observation.
They also explore whether a proliferation of standards and "innovation" is making it harder for the LBS to carry out repairs in a timely fashion due to needing an ever expanding number of SKUs.
some avinox curiousity. canyon just launched their first bike with it (and 3 more by jan 19). pre-order only with "shipping on jan 19, expected delivery in february." i checked the amflow site and noticed their PX doesn't ship until mid december. when we did our reviews, shipping dates were early october IIRC. now they're december. canyon isn't until january. is anyone aware if recent batches of amflows have been shipped?
if bikes haven't gone out, why do we think there are so many delays? i'm not trying to be conspiratorial, but are manufacturing/shipping costs not worth it right now, so they're just waiting it out? does anyone have any insight into other avinox bikes and their actual availability?
i find these delays really interesting and i'd be bummed if i was a consumer who ordered months ago.
In Canada at least, I'm hearing nothing but delays and issues finding parts. Happy to be corrected, but that seems to be the case. Amflow's endless...
In Canada at least, I'm hearing nothing but delays and issues finding parts. Happy to be corrected, but that seems to be the case. Amflow's endless delayed and no real experience with anything from any other brands landing for the most part other than forbidden.and Teewig. Sure is a strange one.
And again, with each brand responsible for their own supply of parts, I can see that going pretty sideways. If Avinox falls behind in any way with spare parts production forecasting, customers are going to come up short I feel. I've already had this issue with one of the bigger motor suppliers using a single 3rd party in each country having issues getting parts because they ordered their usually supply of parts, that supplier came up short having already shipped the amount of displays made elsewhere. During this time the parts SKU changed and the backorder canceled. The order was resubmitted by the distributor and was missed again because of a communication issue. In the end, 7 months and a season of riding had passed for this customer, who was rightly pretty over it.
If they're suppling 20+ company's, and then individual country based offices and distribution arms, I can see things going pretty sideways if they're already coming up a bit short.
Commencal Canada also have stock of some sizes of their new Avinox bike. Teewing Canada are already discounting their M1 Avinox bikes so seems they are pretty confident there are stocks of M2 bikes incoming.
Here in the UK most Avinox bikes are getting pre-ordered, with very little making their way to shop floors. Certainly seems like a supply crunch. Amflow themselves seem the exception, with some large drops recently at my local shops. I'm increasingly seeing Bosch and Spesh ebikes sitting on the shop floor or being discounted.
On the pedal bike side, there's relatively little supply, and demand. Chatting to the owner of one of the busiest shops in wales, 80-90% of their mountain bike sales are eebs now. Very few normal bikes on shop floors. Transition are notable for pretty much stopping imports of the sentinel/spire/patrol etc. The enduro segment has been eaten up. Some brands (Whyte) have stopped making or importing higher-end pedal bikes.
Also, what's going on with Giant? No updates to any of their mtbs for years except the anthem, and their new Trance eeb just came out and looks 3 years old. Being in the UK it's not just the US import restrictions, they just haven't brought anything interesting out in a while, and outright stopped selling some models here.
My buddy ordered the new Propain Avinox M2S bike back in April and he received it in July. He experienced one minor delay (about two weeks from original delivery date) and Propain upgraded his fork to an Ultimate Zeb (was ordered with a Select+ model) at no additional cost.
Got an email response from Hayes Group when I asked about the ProTaper bars & got this response: " As it turns out we are unable to accept new purchase orders for ProTaper components at this time. This order suspension is temporary, and we will share more information in the coming weeks"
In Canada at least, I'm hearing nothing but delays and issues finding parts. Happy to be corrected, but that seems to be the case. Amflow's endless...
In Canada at least, I'm hearing nothing but delays and issues finding parts. Happy to be corrected, but that seems to be the case. Amflow's endless delayed and no real experience with anything from any other brands landing for the most part other than forbidden.and Teewig. Sure is a strange one.
And again, with each brand responsible for their own supply of parts, I can see that going pretty sideways. If Avinox falls behind in any way with spare parts production forecasting, customers are going to come up short I feel. I've already had this issue with one of the bigger motor suppliers using a single 3rd party in each country having issues getting parts because they ordered their usually supply of parts, that supplier came up short having already shipped the amount of displays made elsewhere. During this time the parts SKU changed and the backorder canceled. The order was resubmitted by the distributor and was missed again because of a communication issue. In the end, 7 months and a season of riding had passed for this customer, who was rightly pretty over it.
If they're suppling 20+ company's, and then individual country based offices and distribution arms, I can see things going pretty sideways if they're already coming up a bit short.
imho country depended and how good the local distributor for avinox is. here in switzerland they chose one of the best distris and they have stock and ship fast. i needed a new display and had it replaced within a week.
Escape Collective Geek Warning just did an interesting podcast. I'm a member but I think the first part is free to all (but I can't post that...
Escape Collective Geek Warning just did an interesting podcast.
I'm a member but I think the first part is free to all (but I can't post that link). Maybe someone else can.
The TL:DR is that there's a forecast shortage of bike mechanics in Europe. Based on the report linked below. They go into some of the reasons around that that likely won't be news to this audience (low pay, lack of career path, enthusiast workforce).
They also claim though that they have seen occurrences where bike shops are under charging customers for labour (on complex bike tasks) just to avoid sticker shock... This is with respect to road bikes more but never the less an interesting observation.
They also explore whether a proliferation of standards and "innovation" is making it harder for the LBS to carry out repairs in a timely fashion due to needing an ever expanding number of SKUs.
some avinox curiousity. canyon just launched their first bike with it (and 3 more by jan 19). pre-order only with "shipping on jan 19, expected delivery in february." i checked the amflow site and noticed their PX doesn't ship until mid december. when we did our reviews, shipping dates were early october IIRC. now they're december. canyon isn't until january. is anyone aware if recent batches of amflows have been shipped?
if bikes haven't gone out, why do we think there are so many delays? i'm not trying to be conspiratorial, but are manufacturing/shipping costs not worth it right now, so they're just waiting it out? does anyone have any insight into other avinox bikes and their actual availability?
i find these delays really interesting and i'd be bummed if i was a consumer who ordered months ago.
At surface level, this just points to development leadtimes and capturing customer commitment in the wake many competitors coming out with Avinox models. Nothing too suspicious about launching early before stock has arrived. Commencal showed their M2S bike at Eurobike 2025 / Q2, and didn't ship anything out until Q1 2026.
Got an email response from Hayes Group when I asked about the ProTaper bars & got this response:" As it turns out we are unable to...
Got an email response from Hayes Group when I asked about the ProTaper bars & got this response: " As it turns out we are unable to accept new purchase orders for ProTaper components at this time. This order suspension is temporary, and we will share more information in the coming weeks"
Weird right?
There was always a weird sharing of the ProTaper trademarks for moto products and MTB products. Pure guess, but there could be something changing around that licensing/relationship. I believe it was Tucker Rocky (later Powersports) that held the TM for moto, but they were acquired by Turn 14 a little while back. Hayes had the MTB side, of course.
Escape Collective Geek Warning just did an interesting podcast. I'm a member but I think the first part is free to all (but I can't post that...
Escape Collective Geek Warning just did an interesting podcast.
I'm a member but I think the first part is free to all (but I can't post that link). Maybe someone else can.
The TL:DR is that there's a forecast shortage of bike mechanics in Europe. Based on the report linked below. They go into some of the reasons around that that likely won't be news to this audience (low pay, lack of career path, enthusiast workforce).
They also claim though that they have seen occurrences where bike shops are under charging customers for labour (on complex bike tasks) just to avoid sticker shock... This is with respect to road bikes more but never the less an interesting observation.
They also explore whether a proliferation of standards and "innovation" is making it harder for the LBS to carry out repairs in a timely fashion due to needing an ever expanding number of SKUs.
+1 for escape collective - their stuff is worth the membership. All those points sound pretty bang on to me. @sethimus are those employers hiring people for anything like a decent wage?
As for Avinox - I have no insights but it wouldn't surprise me if the explosion in popularity is hard to keep up with. They went from unheard of 18 months ago to being specced everywhere. I know they have the resources to deliver but I can only imagine there is only so much they can pump out in this short time
some avinox curiousity. canyon just launched their first bike with it (and 3 more by jan 19). pre-order only with "shipping on jan 19, expected delivery in february." i checked the amflow site and noticed their PX doesn't ship until mid december. when we did our reviews, shipping dates were early october IIRC. now they're december. canyon isn't until january. is anyone aware if recent batches of amflows have been shipped?
if bikes haven't gone out, why do we think there are so many delays? i'm not trying to be conspiratorial, but are manufacturing/shipping costs not worth it right now, so they're just waiting it out? does anyone have any insight into other avinox bikes and their actual availability?
i find these delays really interesting and i'd be bummed if i was a consumer who ordered months ago.
Interestingly, no e-bikes of any sort currently appear on Canyon's Australian or New Zealand websites.
I don't think we have any unusual regulatory hurdles – there are plenty of Avinox-powered e-bikes already available here – so I assume this means something like a phased rollout and ANZ is currently in the "too hard" basket.
Interestingly, no e-bikes of any sort currently appear on Canyon's Australian or New Zealand websites.I don't think we have any unusual regulatory hurdles – there are...
Interestingly, no e-bikes of any sort currently appear on Canyon's Australian or New Zealand websites.
I don't think we have any unusual regulatory hurdles – there are plenty of Avinox-powered e-bikes already available here – so I assume this means something like a phased rollout and ANZ is currently in the "too hard" basket.
On a global scale we are both unimportant minnows/backwaters.
+1 for escape collective - their stuff is worth the membership. All those points sound pretty bang on to me. @sethimus are those employers hiring people...
+1 for escape collective - their stuff is worth the membership. All those points sound pretty bang on to me. @sethimus are those employers hiring people for anything like a decent wage?
As for Avinox - I have no insights but it wouldn't surprise me if the explosion in popularity is hard to keep up with. They went from unheard of 18 months ago to being specced everywhere. I know they have the resources to deliver but I can only imagine there is only so much they can pump out in this short time
a good mechanic can ask for 5-6k x 13 salaries in switzerland . you earn heaps more in normal jobs though. but you‘d pay very little taxes on such a salary ( i paid around 5%)
a good mechanic can ask for 5-6k x 13 salaries in switzerland . you earn heaps more in normal jobs though. but you‘d pay very little...
a good mechanic can ask for 5-6k x 13 salaries in switzerland . you earn heaps more in normal jobs though. but you‘d pay very little taxes on such a salary ( i paid around 5%)
key world switzerland...
Over here, it's a wee bit harder to find staff that is either motivated to do the work or have the low pay that comes with it. Most bike shops will not pay more than 20$/hour because the mechanic title is always shared between full-time mechanics who will try to make this their profession and random part-timers that do this while studying and such. Add in the ever-complexifying of bikes and such and it's kind of easy to see why shops have a hard time finding someone that knows and is motivated and then pay them accordingly to their knowledge. Shops are having a had time lately, and most don't seem to understand that if you pay your staff correctly and keep them happy, they'll be less inclined to move or change careers...
key world switzerland...Over here, it's a wee bit harder to find staff that is either motivated to do the work or have the low pay that...
key world switzerland...
Over here, it's a wee bit harder to find staff that is either motivated to do the work or have the low pay that comes with it. Most bike shops will not pay more than 20$/hour because the mechanic title is always shared between full-time mechanics who will try to make this their profession and random part-timers that do this while studying and such. Add in the ever-complexifying of bikes and such and it's kind of easy to see why shops have a hard time finding someone that knows and is motivated and then pay them accordingly to their knowledge. Shops are having a had time lately, and most don't seem to understand that if you pay your staff correctly and keep them happy, they'll be less inclined to move or change careers...
a mechanic here is someone who has the 3 year apprenticeship. self taught can work too but can’t ask for that salary before they prove themselves
Got an email response from Hayes Group when I asked about the ProTaper bars & got this response:" As it turns out we are unable to...
Got an email response from Hayes Group when I asked about the ProTaper bars & got this response: " As it turns out we are unable to accept new purchase orders for ProTaper components at this time. This order suspension is temporary, and we will share more information in the coming weeks"
There was always a weird sharing of the ProTaper trademarks for moto products and MTB products. Pure guess, but there could be something changing around that...
There was always a weird sharing of the ProTaper trademarks for moto products and MTB products. Pure guess, but there could be something changing around that licensing/relationship. I believe it was Tucker Rocky (later Powersports) that held the TM for moto, but they were acquired by Turn 14 a little while back. Hayes had the MTB side, of course.
As you like to use AI, may I suggest to ask this question: "Who was CEO of Fox Factory before Dennison and what is this person up to now?"
I am not trying to blame anybody specifically, but management changes often change the whole business strategy ... I always liked Larry as a person.
thanks @PeteHaile - great insight.
and @Brian_Peterson - have they actually shipped any significant quantities of units yet? it just feels like since their launch, there's only been a very small sprinkling of bikes shipped and no brand has had anything available aside from a couple bikes.
maybe i'm just reading into it too much
In Canada at least, I'm hearing nothing but delays and issues finding parts. Happy to be corrected, but that seems to be the case. Amflow's endless delayed and no real experience with anything from any other brands landing for the most part other than forbidden.and Teewig. Sure is a strange one.
And again, with each brand responsible for their own supply of parts, I can see that going pretty sideways. If Avinox falls behind in any way with spare parts production forecasting, customers are going to come up short I feel. I've already had this issue with one of the bigger motor suppliers using a single 3rd party in each country having issues getting parts because they ordered their usually supply of parts, that supplier came up short having already shipped the amount of displays made elsewhere. During this time the parts SKU changed and the backorder canceled. The order was resubmitted by the distributor and was missed again because of a communication issue. In the end, 7 months and a season of riding had passed for this customer, who was rightly pretty over it.
If they're suppling 20+ company's, and then individual country based offices and distribution arms, I can see things going pretty sideways if they're already coming up a bit short.
In the front range I'm seeing some orbeas show up, and in other forums people are seeing avinox bikes trickle in since august or so. Trickle being the operative word. Lots of delays worldwide.
I've an order in for a wild lt so I have a vested interest. My order should be here in January.i notice there is sporadic stock littered around the UK but not a huge amount, they have the exact bike I'm getting in biketart but I'm wary of 1 losing my deposit and 2 not supplied by a "local" shop to me so potentiall issues for warranty.
I've no faith it'll be here in January though 😂
Heard that manufacturing of bikes and components is taking a hit.
Data centers are being built all over. These feature components. Components are made and assembled in factories. Factory workers have a choice where they work and follow the pay. Data centers are paying better than cycling industry factories, so now there’s a worker shortage at the base level.
Yeah ai and data centers. Next round of price increases.
Escape Collective Geek Warning just did an interesting podcast.
I'm a member but I think the first part is free to all (but I can't post that link). Maybe someone else can.
The TL:DR is that there's a forecast shortage of bike mechanics in Europe. Based on the report linked below. They go into some of the reasons around that that likely won't be news to this audience (low pay, lack of career path, enthusiast workforce).
They also claim though that they have seen occurrences where bike shops are under charging customers for labour (on complex bike tasks) just to avoid sticker shock... This is with respect to road bikes more but never the less an interesting observation.
They also explore whether a proliferation of standards and "innovation" is making it harder for the LBS to carry out repairs in a timely fashion due to needing an ever expanding number of SKUs.
Worth a listen if you have the time.
https://cyclingindustries.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Nextgen-Mechan…
Commencal Canada also have stock of some sizes of their new Avinox bike. Teewing Canada are already discounting their M1 Avinox bikes so seems they are pretty confident there are stocks of M2 bikes incoming.
Here in the UK most Avinox bikes are getting pre-ordered, with very little making their way to shop floors. Certainly seems like a supply crunch. Amflow themselves seem the exception, with some large drops recently at my local shops. I'm increasingly seeing Bosch and Spesh ebikes sitting on the shop floor or being discounted.
On the pedal bike side, there's relatively little supply, and demand. Chatting to the owner of one of the busiest shops in wales, 80-90% of their mountain bike sales are eebs now. Very few normal bikes on shop floors. Transition are notable for pretty much stopping imports of the sentinel/spire/patrol etc. The enduro segment has been eaten up. Some brands (Whyte) have stopped making or importing higher-end pedal bikes.
Also, what's going on with Giant? No updates to any of their mtbs for years except the anthem, and their new Trance eeb just came out and looks 3 years old. Being in the UK it's not just the US import restrictions, they just haven't brought anything interesting out in a while, and outright stopped selling some models here.
My buddy ordered the new Propain Avinox M2S bike back in April and he received it in July. He experienced one minor delay (about two weeks from original delivery date) and Propain upgraded his fork to an Ultimate Zeb (was ordered with a Select+ model) at no additional cost.
Got an email response from Hayes Group when I asked about the ProTaper bars & got this response:
" As it turns out we are unable to accept new purchase orders for ProTaper components at this time. This order suspension is temporary, and we will share more information in the coming weeks"
Weird right?
imho country depended and how good the local distributor for avinox is. here in switzerland they chose one of the best distris and they have stock and ship fast. i needed a new display and had it replaced within a week.
if you are a mechanic, you can chose your employer atm. everybody is hiring around here. the company i work for alone has 4 open positions atm
thanks for the avinox insight everyone
At surface level, this just points to development leadtimes and capturing customer commitment in the wake many competitors coming out with Avinox models. Nothing too suspicious about launching early before stock has arrived. Commencal showed their M2S bike at Eurobike 2025 / Q2, and didn't ship anything out until Q1 2026.
There was always a weird sharing of the ProTaper trademarks for moto products and MTB products. Pure guess, but there could be something changing around that licensing/relationship. I believe it was Tucker Rocky (later Powersports) that held the TM for moto, but they were acquired by Turn 14 a little while back. Hayes had the MTB side, of course.
Wait and see I guess.
+1 for escape collective - their stuff is worth the membership. All those points sound pretty bang on to me. @sethimus are those employers hiring people for anything like a decent wage?
As for Avinox - I have no insights but it wouldn't surprise me if the explosion in popularity is hard to keep up with. They went from unheard of 18 months ago to being specced everywhere. I know they have the resources to deliver but I can only imagine there is only so much they can pump out in this short time
Interestingly, no e-bikes of any sort currently appear on Canyon's Australian or New Zealand websites.
I don't think we have any unusual regulatory hurdles – there are plenty of Avinox-powered e-bikes already available here – so I assume this means something like a phased rollout and ANZ is currently in the "too hard" basket.
On a global scale we are both unimportant minnows/backwaters.
They'll look after the big markets first.
a good mechanic can ask for 5-6k x 13 salaries in switzerland . you earn heaps more in normal jobs though. but you‘d pay very little taxes on such a salary ( i paid around 5%)
key world switzerland...
Over here, it's a wee bit harder to find staff that is either motivated to do the work or have the low pay that comes with it. Most bike shops will not pay more than 20$/hour because the mechanic title is always shared between full-time mechanics who will try to make this their profession and random part-timers that do this while studying and such. Add in the ever-complexifying of bikes and such and it's kind of easy to see why shops have a hard time finding someone that knows and is motivated and then pay them accordingly to their knowledge. Shops are having a had time lately, and most don't seem to understand that if you pay your staff correctly and keep them happy, they'll be less inclined to move or change careers...
a mechanic here is someone who has the 3 year apprenticeship. self taught can work too but can’t ask for that salary before they prove themselves
@sspomer I do know a friend's shop just got some Amflow bikes in not lo g ago...
That would make sense. Negotiating.
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