The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

Suns_PSD
Posts
369
Joined
10/7/2015
Location
Austin, TX US
5/13/2026 9:28am
Suns_PSD wrote:
I have a '26 Wild with the CXR & 600wh battery. In a L with dual coil suspension, dual DH wheels, dual DH tires, 200mm AXS...

I have a '26 Wild with the CXR & 600wh battery. In a L with dual coil suspension, dual DH wheels, dual DH tires, 200mm AXS dropper, electronic shifting & big brakes, it weighs 48.6#s ready to ride with pedals. More importantly it's the most balanced bike I've ever ridden, and it actually feels lighter than my Relay when riding.

 

The custom paint schemes are really cool, and I wanted a nice silver/ blue motif. However, it was thousands of dollars more cost effective to buy a base model CF M20 with the Kiox and CXR that I wanted and just install my own curated parts. That left me having to choose one of their 3 base colors as that was the only option on the base model M20, and it's fine. The green actually looks pretty cool and it's a rarer color. 

 

My advise to Orbea is that everything should be a line item. They should allow you to choose your frame material, then your paint scheme on the CF frames, then each part as a line item all of the way from a base Al frame only, to a completely loaded custom CF bike. 

 

BTW, Orbea provides dealers with 25% off right now on any Bosch standard build. So heck of a time to get a deal.

 

As far as HCR goes, I had never messed with it before this bike and as a result I went with the electronic shifting and dropper to simplify my life. But I have to admit, I rather like it and I think with integration for the dropper and shifter electronics on an e-bike (or even a bike with a small battery for these components), it's the future. Some of you might not know that Orbea already powers the electronic dropper on 2 models directly from the motor system. Moving forward, I think cable ports on the Al cheaper model makes sense so they can run mechanical, but with full integration on the CF frames where HCR is acceptable.

 

My Relay is admittedly a bit of a rat's nest because I slapped it together from take-off parts to sell it, but I do think the Wild just looks way cleaner in part because of HCR.

20260510 120810.jpg?VersionId=HPp16JgRloEvnAetw1LI20260510 121157.jpg?VersionId=lopiDlQFKDR99oz0a

 

The lack of headset routing is not the reason those cables look like shit. They all look a foot too long. 

lloyd506 wrote:

Can hear that rats nest of cables rattling down the trail from here. Clean that mess up. 

It's horrific, I agree. But that's for the next guy to do.

I intentionally made the brake lines extra-long in case I ended up needing to ride it (because it won't sell) so I could easily swap the brakes to MX style for me.

With the battery removed, it would make a sick DH rig for me so that's the back up plan.

1
jeff.brines
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1249
Joined
8/29/2010
Location
Grand Junction, CO US
5/13/2026 1:56pm

Apologies for locking the thread. Totally by mistake (again). 

3
5/13/2026 2:28pm
MauiMax wrote:
I should add my post from the tech forum here. Any idea what happened with knolly? I see everything sold out and now all of it...

I should add my post from the tech forum here. Any idea what happened with knolly? I see everything sold out and now all of it up for auction. 

https://www.bidspotter.com/en-us/auction-catalogues/maynards-can/catalogue-id-bscma10155 

1
rgard
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32
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5/2/2024
Location
pemberton, BC CA
5/13/2026 3:03pm Edited Date/Time 5/13/2026 3:03pm
Its a super-duper longshot, but I have watched this play out a few times now. All depends on a few (huge) things...1) Who here sold a...

Its a super-duper longshot, but I have watched this play out a few times now. All depends on a few (huge) things...

1) Who here sold a tech company/has generational wealth/a mega rich uncle/dad who runs a hedge fund and is bored? We'd need 7 figures to buy the thing out of receivership. 
2) What is the price? If the price is right, it works. If its not, its all for nothing.
3) "Who's coming with me?"

The timing is not in our favor, and I can't stress how important point number 1 is. Most people aren't interested in tying up millions of dollars in a failed bike company, even if there is a brand worth saving and a real business underneath it. 

..and yes, I'm completely ignoring how I'd turn the business around in this post, but its a massive lift (obviously). 

 

Having browsed every item they have in the auction (tempted to buy myself the contents of a room for $30) I'm not sure I see millions of dollars worth of stock there and the entirety of their IP was a convoluted suspension design to avoid paying Horst link royalties. Lowball 'em! That said if you need someone on the ground in BC, I'm in. 

6
1
Jotegr
Posts
352
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Location
Interior, BC CA
5/13/2026 3:29pm Edited Date/Time 5/13/2026 3:30pm

Looking at the auction makes me sad. As someone who worked at a shop where everything on the staff side was covered in stickers (aka all shops), seeing the lot with the fridge the employees decorated with stickers hit home. 

 

The auctioneer is a bit crazy. A box of loose leaf paper? A lot of what is obviously returned warranty frames? Okay. 

 

I'd be pretty stoked to get the Cane Creek Double Barrel bench grinder, however. I didn't know they were in that space. 

6
rgard
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Location
pemberton, BC CA
5/13/2026 3:58pm Edited Date/Time 5/13/2026 4:00pm
Jotegr wrote:
Looking at the auction makes me sad. As someone who worked at a shop where everything on the staff side was covered in stickers (aka all...

Looking at the auction makes me sad. As someone who worked at a shop where everything on the staff side was covered in stickers (aka all shops), seeing the lot with the fridge the employees decorated with stickers hit home. 

 

The auctioneer is a bit crazy. A box of loose leaf paper? A lot of what is obviously returned warranty frames? Okay. 

 

I'd be pretty stoked to get the Cane Creek Double Barrel bench grinder, however. I didn't know they were in that space. 

This is a receivership sale, they are legally obliged to sell everything that isn't bolted down for whatever they can get for it. (Being bolted down probably doesn't even exclude it, let's be honest) They've obviously just walked into the Knolly premises, photographed EVERYTHING and set a nominal price for it. 

3
Jotegr
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352
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Location
Interior, BC CA
5/13/2026 4:42pm Edited Date/Time 5/13/2026 4:42pm

No, a  receiver is not "legally obliged to sell everything that isn't bolted down". They are obliged to act in a commercially reasonable manner consistent with their fiduciary duty to all interested parties. They are not obliged to extract every scrap of value from a bankruptcy, particularly where, in the case of what appears to be warranty frames in pieces, said product might be unsafe - I don't think you're going to get many bike manufacturers claiming its commercially reasonable  to sell warranty rejects. 

 

If a receiver walked into my office saying that someone is claiming they breached their fiduciary duty by choosing to not sell a box of paper, I'd take them on. 

3
megastoke
Posts
24
Joined
4/9/2024
Location
La Grande, OR US
5/14/2026 1:46pm
Suns_PSD wrote:
I have a '26 Wild with the CXR & 600wh battery. In a L with dual coil suspension, dual DH wheels, dual DH tires, 200mm AXS...

I have a '26 Wild with the CXR & 600wh battery. In a L with dual coil suspension, dual DH wheels, dual DH tires, 200mm AXS dropper, electronic shifting & big brakes, it weighs 48.6#s ready to ride with pedals. More importantly it's the most balanced bike I've ever ridden, and it actually feels lighter than my Relay when riding.

 

The custom paint schemes are really cool, and I wanted a nice silver/ blue motif. However, it was thousands of dollars more cost effective to buy a base model CF M20 with the Kiox and CXR that I wanted and just install my own curated parts. That left me having to choose one of their 3 base colors as that was the only option on the base model M20, and it's fine. The green actually looks pretty cool and it's a rarer color. 

 

My advise to Orbea is that everything should be a line item. They should allow you to choose your frame material, then your paint scheme on the CF frames, then each part as a line item all of the way from a base Al frame only, to a completely loaded custom CF bike. 

 

BTW, Orbea provides dealers with 25% off right now on any Bosch standard build. So heck of a time to get a deal.

 

As far as HCR goes, I had never messed with it before this bike and as a result I went with the electronic shifting and dropper to simplify my life. But I have to admit, I rather like it and I think with integration for the dropper and shifter electronics on an e-bike (or even a bike with a small battery for these components), it's the future. Some of you might not know that Orbea already powers the electronic dropper on 2 models directly from the motor system. Moving forward, I think cable ports on the Al cheaper model makes sense so they can run mechanical, but with full integration on the CF frames where HCR is acceptable.

 

My Relay is admittedly a bit of a rat's nest because I slapped it together from take-off parts to sell it, but I do think the Wild just looks way cleaner in part because of HCR.

20260510 120810.jpg?VersionId=HPp16JgRloEvnAetw1LI20260510 121157.jpg?VersionId=lopiDlQFKDR99oz0a

 

The lack of headset routing is not the reason those cables look like shit. They all look a foot too long. 

That and he’s comparing a bike with five cables to one with two. 

2
sweaman22
Posts
87
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1/6/2025
Location
Calgary , AB CA
5/14/2026 2:46pm

Escape collective has just released the first (of several) follow up podcasts on the state of the industry.  I've only just started the first but if it's like the previous set they'll be worth a listen.

 

5
5/14/2026 3:50pm
sweaman22 wrote:
Escape collective has just released the first (of several) follow up podcasts on the state of the industry.  I've only just started the first but if...

Escape collective has just released the first (of several) follow up podcasts on the state of the industry.  I've only just started the first but if it's like the previous set they'll be worth a listen.

 

Link? I can’t seem to find it. 

1
sweaman22
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Location
Calgary , AB CA
5/14/2026 4:25pm

So episode one is free and the rest is subscribers only. I found it on Spotify under overnight success by escape collective.

2
Digit Bikes
Posts
182
Joined
9/22/2021
Location
Irvine, CA US
5/15/2026 1:03pm

Here's the Apple link: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/industry-special-part-2-episode-1-the-false-dawn/id1503581934?i=1000767656518

And the Spotify link: https://open.spotify.com/episode/6EZiZkb0omiwWyxKDxIXMC I've subscribed before to Escape, I imagine I'll do so again to access parts 2, 3 and 4/

If anyone has 7 figures that they're eager to invest in a bike company with a patent moat. Please consider giving me a call.

12
5/19/2026 7:02am

Second time, no? Bummer. 

I believe so. Seems like they have really been limping along the last few years, I knew when they cut all of their sponsored athletes and YouTubers that things were going poorly. 

1
jeff.brines
Posts
1249
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Location
Grand Junction, CO US
5/19/2026 7:17am Edited Date/Time 5/19/2026 7:30am
I believe so. Seems like they have really been limping along the last few years, I knew when they cut all of their sponsored athletes and...

I believe so. Seems like they have really been limping along the last few years, I knew when they cut all of their sponsored athletes and YouTubers that things were going poorly. 

Side point, but after talking to a number of brands and shops, one thing keeps standing out: e-MTB is no longer a side quest (even if you aren't amflow). I know this is a big "duh" to those in Europe, but for me (a long time analog bike guy) its a stark reminder things have changed. I have three brands telling me off the record e bikes drive over half the company's revenue. 

If you don’t have a real e-MTB story right now (like Niner), you’re making yourself harder for shops to justify carrying. From the shop’s perspective, they can only tie up so much capital in inventory. If one boutique brand gives them a complete lineup, analog trail bikes, enduro bikes, and a credible e-MTB, and another brand is still waiting on an eeb that is “coming in fall 2026,” (via niner's website) the decision gets pretty obvious. I know the company had other problems too - but this one seems notable. 

The bigger question: who else is stuck in this uncanny valley? Too premium to be cheap, too small to outspend the category leaders, and too late to have a credible e-MTB platform?

18
HexonJuan
Posts
396
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Location
WI US
5/19/2026 7:19am

Niner shutting shop shouldn't surprise anyone. They haven't done anything relevant in near a decade. Geo and aesthetics for their full sus platforms are very much off the back. That they lasted as long as they did was always a wonder to me.

14
jeff.brines
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1249
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Location
Grand Junction, CO US
5/19/2026 8:11am

Not to totally rip off Bicycle Retailer but their home page is full of interesting stories I missed right now...

-Amazon to stop selling e-bikes that exceed 28mph in CA (no more Surrons via Amazon)
-Giant reports April sales (3%)
-GoPro sale or merger being considered (how'd I miss this!? Wild! Insta360+DJI ate their lunch)
-Leatt continues to crush; sales up 27% y/y in Q1.
-Merida and Ideal sales down (14%) and (22%) respectively y/y

 

9
storm.racing
Posts
326
Joined
2/15/2022
Location
Silverton, CO US
5/19/2026 9:32am
Not to totally rip off Bicycle Retailer but their home page is full of interesting stories I missed right now...-Amazon to stop selling e-bikes that exceed...

Not to totally rip off Bicycle Retailer but their home page is full of interesting stories I missed right now...

-Amazon to stop selling e-bikes that exceed 28mph in CA (no more Surrons via Amazon)
-Giant reports April sales (3%)
-GoPro sale or merger being considered (how'd I miss this!? Wild! Insta360+DJI ate their lunch)
-Leatt continues to crush; sales up 27% y/y in Q1.
-Merida and Ideal sales down (14%) and (22%) respectively y/y

 

Been wondering for a long time when this would happen 

"-GoPro sale or merger being considered (how'd I miss this!? Wild! Insta360+DJI ate their lunch)"

2
Masjo
Posts
249
Joined
11/25/2014
Location
Ancaster CA
5/19/2026 11:30am

I was thinking over the weekend that GoPro has kind of fallen off in terms of relevance, but thought maybe some media company like Red Bull would be interested in buying them just for the content they make? But then again, maybe no point in doing so if DJI/Insta360 are making as good/better products anyways. 

1
Masjo
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Location
Ancaster CA
5/19/2026 11:39am

Just going off of 'site sponsors' for Vital and Pinkbike:

Ari: Budget I guess? 

Cannondale: more road for PON

Ibis: small, but maybe getting their lunch eaten by other 'small' brands. 

Intense: probably continues with USA focus. Seems like odd things going on there for the past while but they are still surviving. 

Kona: I would be concerned, but they were just bought back

Mondraker: doesn't seem super big here in Canada

Niner: RIP (pun intended)

Norco: Oddly medium-sized, but they do own a distribution company in Canada so that may help with the budget

Pivot: small enough

Polygon: not huge presence, but they own their factory if I recall?

Propain: seems oddly small sized and would have been rocked by the non-existence of thermoplastic bike?

Rocky Mountain: seems medium sized with an interesting e-bike play that may not pay off

Scott: Too big, unless the CEOs want to screw around again

Transition: probably small enough?

Trek: Big, but sounds like it's rough over there

Yeti: Small and has heritage

Devinci: small ish, but now making frames in Canada seems to be their card

Commencal: I assume big enough? They have so many race teams, but that could be a problem eventually

NS Bikes: They are still a thing?

YT: lol

Cube: seem big in Europe

Marin: very medium but seem to be a 'cheap'-er brand

5
Buckets Up
Posts
229
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Location
Hancock, MI US
5/19/2026 6:36pm Edited Date/Time 5/19/2026 6:44pm

How much of the appearance that “e-bikes are the only thing selling” is an artificial bubble based on the fact that they are a market that essentially did not exist 6-7 years ago? Thus, we are still working through the initial phase of: everyone who is interested buying into the market (often for the first time) looks like greater demand than what will stabilize over the ensuing 5-10 years. I imagine over time as there are less ‘new’ buyers and the demand becomes only individuals turning over from an older model to a newer one that e-bike sales actually drop from the current high point and then stabilize somewhere lower.

I think we’ve already seen this bear out in regular mountain bikes. Current bikes are quite good and have had only minor improvements since ~2020. Thus most riders have a totally serviceable bike and only feel the need to upgrade periodically. Thus normal bike sales have stagnated. Furthermore, many riders are probably delaying regular bike purchases to buy their first e-bike which makes the dichotomy even more stark.

Now the potential problem I see is that bike companies may again be mis-reading some signals. They are largely forgoing investment in regular bike development because sales look slow and putting all their money into e-bikes because sales look (artificially) strong. But, what happens if/when the e-bike bubble bursts (market saturates) and no significant investment has been made into regular bikes for an extended stretch (thus there is no reason to buy there either)?

Furthermore, China is poised to eat the historical bike companies’ lunch in the next 3-5 years within the e-bike market.

I predict the turmoil of the last 6 years post COVID is here to stay for much longer than anyone predicts or is willing to admit.

19
sweaman22
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Calgary , AB CA
5/19/2026 7:09pm

I think the hope is that ebikes will be more like iPhones or the geometry updates circa 2014-2020 such that people will continually want to upgrade to the latest and greatest... There was a period where a 2 year old bike was noticeably different.

But depreciation on old ebikes is going to be brutal and how many people can afford new 5 figure bikes every few years? 

2
Buckets Up
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Location
Hancock, MI US
5/19/2026 7:16pm
sweaman22 wrote:
I think the hope is that ebikes will be more like iPhones or the geometry updates circa 2014-2020 such that people will continually want to upgrade...

I think the hope is that ebikes will be more like iPhones or the geometry updates circa 2014-2020 such that people will continually want to upgrade to the latest and greatest... There was a period where a 2 year old bike was noticeably different.

But depreciation on old ebikes is going to be brutal and how many people can afford new 5 figure bikes every few years? 

I believe the thought at the moment is probably along the lines of your first statement. However, as you noted, affordability could put a damper on that.

The other thing that could put a quick stop to that is if e-bike regulations continue to increase. Functional legal limits could render motor advancements much less influential. The power wars could be effectively be made moot overnight by regulations if they come to pass.

1
Blake_Motley
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Location
Chula Vista, CA US
5/19/2026 7:39pm
sweaman22 wrote:
I think the hope is that ebikes will be more like iPhones or the geometry updates circa 2014-2020 such that people will continually want to upgrade...

I think the hope is that ebikes will be more like iPhones or the geometry updates circa 2014-2020 such that people will continually want to upgrade to the latest and greatest... There was a period where a 2 year old bike was noticeably different.

But depreciation on old ebikes is going to be brutal and how many people can afford new 5 figure bikes every few years? 

Growing wealth inequality incentivizes selling a handful of high margin bougie builds instead of high volume low margin budget rippers. 

Looking at all the 15k USD Avinox bikes makes we wonder if we’re closer to that future than we realize. The person that pays 15k for a bicycle is probably the sort of person who won’t mind spending 16k in 2 years just to have the newer thing. 

3
2
sweaman22
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Calgary , AB CA
5/19/2026 8:01pm

Or maybe it becomes like the car industry where leasing is one of the main forms of "ownership".

6
Blake_Motley
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Location
Chula Vista, CA US
5/19/2026 8:02pm
sweaman22 wrote:

Or maybe it becomes like the car industry where leasing is one of the main forms of "ownership".

I just got a little queasy

10
owl-x
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Location
Shell Beach, CA US
5/19/2026 9:08pm

😂 

If you thought dealing with becoming old was rough…add a little bit of becoming poor!


 

3

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