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If this happens we’ll see the full fat segment morph into 55lb full power e-bikes with motor gearboxes. Then, the SL e-bikes as we know them (42lbs with Exo tires and 400wh battery) will fade into the bushes and be replaced by 45lb DJI powered bikes with 600wh batteries. 400wh just isn’t enough to not take your analog 120-140 bike out now that they’re fashionable again.
There’s some good alternatives already (SB120, Tallboy, Trailcat Sl, to name a few). They’re just not that light, which kind of defeats the purpose of a short travel bike IMO. Why not have 130 or 140 rear travel, if your bike is going to be 32lbs.
I think they are getting closer to blending both into one (trail performance + XC weight). Salsa Spearfish seams to be leading the charge, but I’m sure better options are coming. Should be an exciting Sea Otter for this category.
You guys know that light e-motos are already available, or? 😉
1. Loic wins the overall
2. Vali goes undefeated
3. e-bike hate will increase
4. The new demo will be made into an e-bike version - the 2 chain mechanism will be swapped for a new motor from Spec.
5. Bikes wont change much
6. Gates still pushes the nonsense purse to no avail
7. Reece Wilson will do something even more weird with his bike and still not make it through in Q1.
Trek finally releases the Ticket S that every pro has been on for the last 8 years.
Aluminum becomes the hot material for MTBs.
Warner Bros continues to announce record breaking viewership, even though nobody believes them, and pro level enduro continues to be more of a feeding series to downhill rather than the end-goal. (Maes, Harnden, Rude, etc)
2.25 clearance on all new gravel bikes. That's the line in the sand that divides MTB from Gravel.
Not perhaps a 2026 but more long term. Bike brands are going to aim for much simpler line ups. Right now it's 1-2 ebikes and 4(ish, very ish) normal bikes (showing my bias). Hardtail. Race, Trail, Enduro.
But I don't think we'll see 4 ebikes from a brand? So then is it going to be economic to still carry all the pedal bikes or do you go for just a couple??
I'll double down on your #4 and predict that the e-Demo will not have a physical connection between the cranks and the motor output, ala Also TM-B.
Rob Warner does a genealogy test, figures out he's actually one of the Warner Brothers, saves World Cup DH from itself
While I think for some brands that will go that route. And Others will go the route of the new trek with multiple roles engineered into one platform. I think most the premium brands will continue to offer specifically engineered bike for most travel ranges. Sometimes even multiple bikes with diffirent tasks or wheel sizes in those travel ranges. However the product cycle for those bikes (especially the niche ones) will be much longer. Like specialized with the enduro. We may see 2-3 stumpy cycles or variations while the enduro only is updated once a decade. Transition for another example will likely continue to have a diverse lineup with seemingly quite a lot of overlap. Allowing customers to really pick that “perfect for me” or “perfect for this role” bike. But rather than introduce a full or nearly full lineup of bikes with all the same features, design language, etc they will continue to run longer product cycles even if some of the line up is getting a bit “old”. 6 even 7 year product cycles as opposed to two to three. And some more niche models like the pbj, spur, bottle rocket going even longer.
It’s going to be even more competitive to get a sale going forward. The economy is getting harder for people to get into the sport and the quality of product means those who are in it are less in the habit of buying a bike every season. I don’t think there is such a high level of efficiency to be found to outweigh the value of a genuinely good addition to your product lineup. However brands will need to really think about what value their r and d budgets are returning and what they are really offering to a customer. Cause the days of just pushing new bikes out the door just because it’s new are gone in general.
1. Vali and Gracey are neck and neck all year. My CDN heart wants Gracey to win, but Vali doesn't fold and wins again.
2. It's not even close. Jackson smokes the field.
3. Very few new bikes are sold. Tell me how you convince a guy with a 22 Hightower (just an example), that a new bike is going to change his world.
His chainstays are too short, bike is unrideable. Stack is too low, unrideable. Seat tube too slack, unclimbable.
Id love to see the big brands offer after sale support. Imagine buying a Stumpy, then having a direct line to all Spec parts - wheels, saddles, etc.
- Amflow stays popular despite “real” brands dropping DJI bikes. They lower their prices/build spec to compete. Teewing is too late and fails to get its footing against the “real” brands and Amflow.
- Bosch bikes go on sale at the end of the year.
- Bikes on sale remains the new normal. Everyone has a great bike with a lifetime warranty. New riders continue to get insane deals on used bikes. Low prices are the only way these 2 groups will be convinced buy a new bike even sans rampant inflation.
- YT makes a better comeback than we’d hoped for. Compromises build spec a little to maintain their low prices.
- Nukeproof comeback flops because they set prices too high. The Nukeproof of ole was a great value in that it’s nicer than Marin/Polygon/Vitus but less expensive than a Transition or Santa Cruz. (this is how the brand is perceived in the US at least)
- More park/free ride bikes released
- Continental radial tires. Maxxis ignores radial and continues to fall off from its once dominance.
- Tires stay way too expensive
- Ric is finally kicked out of the commentary booth
- Gravel and XC begin to merge as gravel riders want 32” and aero XCM continues.
Hardline British Columbia
I don’t think you know what that word means.
More excited about this than pretty much anything else in 2026. I hope they announce it soon so I can book it off. Probably more excited about that than the World Cup stop in Whistler...
Crankworx DH, World Cup DH, and (hopefully) Hardline BC would make for an all time summer of race viewing in southern BC
I think that only works with forum nerds and I think they are less than 10% of the MTB public.
Nothing like crankworx DH watching a bunch of randoms get beat by the 1 real WC racer…maybe will pull more people this year given same track as WC…
I highly doubt amflow will stay popular unless they release a different bike soon. The motor/battery is good, but the bike itself is a stumpjumper knockoff from temu. I was not impressed with the one I tried. It's laughable that they're priced higher than a forbidden e druid (which is a much, much better bike). The teewing flux also looks vastly superior in terms of geo and kinematics to the amflow, but we will see how their production quality and detail work gets on.
My comment was regarding how the industry will justify new bikes, not whether or not riders are on board with that reasoning currently. But to your point, the fc/rc ratio and stack equation is gaining a lot of momentum and it’s not just forum nerds. What’s wild is that over on bikepacking the gravel people are having the same discussions about chainstay length, and now the 32” trend will also push CS lengths out into the 450s.
MTBs have been in a constant state of refinement but there is always a possibility for major advancements when it comes to basic tenets of bike design. It’s not always an industry conspiracy, things like 27.5+ really have huge benefits, and longer+slacker saved countless collar bones. It’s hard to predict what will drive the next revolution but to say there is no need for a new bike is silly, there are lots of issues with the current lineup.
tallboy is on my shortlist of bikes to ride. i was a huge fan of the stumpy carbon, but the flex stay was noticeably more chattery than the alloy four bar version. the epic evo was even worse and so my hypothesis coming off of those three bikes was that a 130 four bar lightweight trail bike would be my ideal bike. unfortunately i am long CS-pilled and so the current offerings leave me concerned for handling.
I think head tube angle, handlebar width, and dropper post length are as far down the rabbit hole as much mountain bikers go. Now that head tube angle has been sorted out and they can run a long dropper, they will be satisfied to spend their time colour matching parts instead of a new bike.
No dates yet...but lots of local talk of it being at Cypress. So dig around for North Van accommodations.
Some serious names in XC will get Gravel Curious and start to dabble. The "spirit of gravel" is on life support, if not dead already. Pit stops have crews, domestiques are hiding out in the open, and money is flowing in.
On top of the fact that most aged cheese has bugger all lactose, you can readily purchase tablets which contain the enzymes needed to break down lactose. You literally just pop one before your cheese orgy and you’re all g.
The lady is actually lactose intolerant and does this on the regs.
I actually had a cheese hangover going into 2026, was brutal.
I heard it's the weekend before Whistler WC though. Which is dumb. Cos a lot of faster racers probably won't do it
I predict Jackson won’t do it again…overall is the real deal Hardline is still just a glorified crank works.
I predict there is zero chance Jackson doesn't race BC Hardline unless he's injured.
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