The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

when you’re hyped to hear a song from the second method man solo album, the one with donald trump in a skit, it shows how low the bar is. 
 

I'll take all the WuTang I can get. Politics aside.

And most new music is to blame for that lol

I'd also love some MF DOOM and Mos Def but... It's not as popular in MTB it seems

Rap is deader than dead. You’re pretty much an Eagles fan. 

The good news is there has been a fairly large resurgence of post-hardcore type stuff so... I'm eating GOOD for my soul food of music. Not that I can use any of that sh!t in a biking edit. But yeah hip hop wise I'm... Not clued in to say the least. I was enjoying a bit of Ocean Wisdom and Four Owls stuff I guess.

I kinda fell off the Kdot train around Damn. I'm basically starving in the desert and waiting for any drop of Earl Sweatshirt tracks to sustain me...

Interesting to know you can trade monetization for YouTube’s music portfolio.  I always just figured the majority of mtb YouTube videos were stealing the music and just hoping they don’t get a cease and desist.

Agreed, I remember posting a video several years ago of my local trails that was marked private that I only shared with like 2 family members, and STILL got a C&D for using music.

Some news from EXT with former Crankbrothers CEO leading an acquisition of the brand after the founder of EXT passed away earlier this year - 

“A group of private strategic investors led by former Crankbrothers CEO Gaspare Licata has acquired a majority stake in Extreme Racing Shox (EXT), the Italian manufacturer of high-performance suspension systems for bicycle and motorsports applications.”

Full article - 
https://www.vitalmtb.com/news/press-release/former-crankbrothers-ceo-gaspare-licata-leads-acquisition-extreme-racing-shox

ok then when do we get a demonitized Clappin Yo Dome posted up?

We’ve all been good this year, how about a Holiday treat?

It’s not right that the kids today can’t watch it without finding a senior citizen with a DVD and DVD player!

YT apparently sold out of that TUES LTD in 10 minutes, and to celebrate they sent this shredit of Josh Lowe on it:

ten minutes... not gonna let that pass the sniff test. i usually like my lies to be a touch on the believable side. (less on the contrived hype, FOMO side)

Commencal have had their media / video / production done in-house for a long time; Leon Perrin who made that video has been there for like 10 years now I believe? In that case it is worth noting as a very different business approach to marketing from just about every other company out there. That's why ALL of the video production is so coherent, on-brand etc, they've actually invested in having that capacity rather than the "throw $X at filmer Y to make a video with athlete Z about product A" that most other brands seem to have. 

@jeff.brines' interview with Sam Nicols, YT CEO from 2021 to 2024. some really interesting insights about the inner workings of a brand like YT. i found the bike ordering, building and assembly process fascinating.

00:00 Introduction to Sam Nicols and YT Industries
01:49 Sam's Background and Career Path
09:28 Challenges of Stepping into YT During the Pandemic
11:35 Navigating Supply Chain Issues and Customer Care
16:01 The Private Equity Interest and Acquisition Process
23:45 Aligning Goals with Private Equity
30:15 Understanding the Risks of Private Equity
34:11 The Impact of Market Conditions on YT's Valuation
37:05 Transitioning to In-House Assembly
49:43 Demand Fluctuations and Market Realities
50:21 Navigating Demand Fluctuations
54:08 Strategic Decisions Amidst Overstocks
01:00:05 The Impact of Cash Flow on Business Decisions
01:03:43 Cost Management Challenges in the Bike Industry
01:10:08 Marketing Strategies: Balancing Brand and Performance
01:17:48 The Role of Data in Business Operations
01:25:12 Leadership Dynamics and Company Culture
01:30:12 Reflections on Competition and Industry Evolution

There hasn't been good news out of Rad Power for quite a while, but Chapter 11 has been formally announced. It may not be a "core" brand to the cycling enthusiast reading this thread, but it is a core brand in the budget consumer e-bike market no doubt.

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/12/16/rad-power-bike…

"Rad Power Bikes listed estimated assets at $32.1 million and estimated liabilities at $72.8 million. Its inventory of e-bikes, spare parts, and accessories is listed at $14,226,874.73.

Top unsecured claims are:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection for tariffs ($8,363,749), Bangkok Cycle Industrial Co. Ltd. ($5,353,674), Jinhua Vision Industry Co., Ltd. ($1,414,356), and Fuji-TA Fushida Group Area ($1,223,881) for trade; Commerce Insurance ($1,138,000) and Lisa Gore ($3,200,000) for subrogation; Steve Jay ($1 million) and Susan Luck ($1 million) for damages.

Equity holders are founder Mike Radenbaugh (41.3%), VCVC V LLC (6.6%), Durable Capital Master Fund LP (5.8%), along with other minority holders (46.3%)."

Even by bike industry standards this seems extra dumpster-firery

(me listening to all 90+ minutes)

"Well now I just have a deeper appetite for all the juicy stuff we're missing..."

It was nice to get some extra clarification on Markus' role during Sam's tenure. Although I think we were all under the understanding that Markus never 'left' and had a hand in everything the entire time.

It feels, put simply, Sam was brought on for a future that could have existed and was projected to exist... But it was never going to exist due to the inherent post-covid climate. To which I'll give Markus credit for choosing someone suited for that potential and Sam credit for preparing to execute on that potential, despite the timeline never coming to life.

I'm assuming there wasn't much to be said about Sam's opinion on how Markus handled the end of YT. Either something he wouldn't care to discuss or a situation where he'd say 'thats just what you have to do in that situation'. Handle it better, in hindsight, but that timeline was always going to happen. That is, I'm assuming nothing was edited out or off limits. I don't see where discussing YT's decisions post-firing would be against an NDA. But the horse is probably beaten to a pulp already so... Not inherently compelling a conversation.

(Any confirmation on Mr Taylor? Or is that podcast never gonna happen...)

Not a dumpster fire, in the case of RAD bikes its garage/shop/house fires from all the recalled batteries!

Holy crap that's a lot of tariff money!

This sucks, but especially so for all the people who have dead fire hazard bikes that won't be replaced. A lot of people probably bought RAD bikes for transportation reasons and did so because it was all they could afford, now they're hung out to dry without options. Also sucks for Mr. Jay and Ms. Luck. Hope they can recover SOMETHING. At least Ms. Gore probably got paid out by her insurer as it's a subrogated claim. 

On the YT note, I'm not surprised they sold out in 10 minutes. It was an extremely limited run meant to generate hype for a great price. What I am skeptical of is whether or not any normal person could have rolled up at launch, put their credit card information in, gotten on the list of 50, and actually got a bike at the end. 

Last I'll say is that is a gooooood podcast pull, well done guys! I'll take a listen in a little while. 

Maybe from open the doors to 200k in the bank process took 10 minutes? 

It’s near Christmas.  I don’t think selling 50 new dh bikes at 1 year used/clearance blowout bike prices that it is wild that they sold out very quickly.  Especially given they advertised it heavily.

 selling bikes has never been yt’s problem as a company.  It’s being profitable enough to match Marcus’s spending on image.  Like a drug dealer who just sells enough to afford getting high.

compaired to the sellout time of an intend trinity batch 10min is a long time...

https://www.engadget.com/entertainment/warner-bros-discovery-rejects-paramounts-hostile-bid-131055882.html

Good news? Bad news? I think it's just news. Hard to say what the future of dh would be under Paramount

@jeff.brines the Sam Nichols podcast was absolutely awesome.  Really great insight to not only the situation YT was in, but also how bike oems handle their business, as well as an anecdotal case study of how PE/VC actually happens.  It's nice being able to digest that paradigm with a case study that is relevant to my interests... makes what is otherwise a pretty dry subject if you're not in the thick of it and makes it palatable.

Thanks Jeff, great work!  

Sam Nichols touched on the point that it's risky to train your customers to never buy bikes at  retail prices by frequently and predictably applying heavy discounts to move units. Then "new" YT turns around and effectively launches by putting out a limited release at barely break even price. 

Also interesting to hear that the more recent "race to the bottom" pricing from YT was less of an intended business model but simply more of an inventory dump maneuver to keep the lights on. 

Yeah @jeff.brines the podcast was amazing, thank you!

I think that Sam actually addressed pretty much everything that Markus said before by simply voicing the fact that they both were managing directors sitting in the same room, making decisions together. I can only admire such a professional and neat way to call out the BS. Lots to learn! 

Lots of Americans like cheap stuff too as illustrated by YT USA being almost 50% of their business. We also invented Amazon.

Jeff, 

Well done on the podcast... I do appreciate the candid nature Sam brought to this interview. Even though a NDA put some limits on what could be said, he did own up to decisions that many of us here viewed as bad and explained the reasons as to why. 

As for you wanting to be a better podcaster, I'd say think about it like jumping a bike.. Some times the best answer is to do less. Your questions were good, you didn't talk over Sam a whole bunch, and kept a good flow going. Maybe you fumbled a word or two, but nothing to stress over.. Getting more interviews in will be the best thing you can do.. Maybe getting some other higher-ups to talk about how they handled these times could make for an interesting series. During my time in the industry, I got to see quite a bit, but these type of interviews give me even more insight into things I might not have been a part of..

Wrapped up @jeff.brines podcast with Sam yesterday. I'm definitely not a business wonk, but I really appreciated the high-level business discussion that was still digestable for me, as an educator who runs a school. It also gave me a lot to think about even in my own practice of being the "CEO" of a school around making tough decisions, strategy, and revenues vs. outflow. Anyway, I feel like this sort of business insight into the bike world might have a somewhat limited audience... but I do think that it follow the 1,000 true fans model that the people who appreciate it... really appreciate it. 

BTW, I was at an enduro recently that my son was racing in, and I got into a bike discussion with a local pro (he was asking specifically about my son's, former, support from YT). He also mentioned how fascinating the content on Vital has been around this issue and how much he appreciated the deep dives. Pretty cool to run into someone "in the wild" who is following the same virtual discussions as you.

It's a very interesting and impressive interview. Thank you, Sam, for taking the time and going so much into detail and also Jeff, of course for trying and then making this happen!
It was interesting to hear how YT experienced the turbulent times during covid.
For us, I can say, that we already saw OE orders being postponed and cancelled already around Q2 2022. 
But the more important thing happened to me in April 2021.
There was one particular OE customer who used to need around 1,500 post per year from us.
End of 2019 (pre-Covid) we received a projected annual forecast of 1,400 posts for the whole of 2020.
That obviously changed during 2020 and in July already we were asked for an additional 500 posts until the end of the year.
 At the same time we already received a forecast of 1600 posts for Q1/Q2 2021. That's all fair, the demand was there.
In October 2020, the forecast was extened to the whole of 2021 for a total of 3,000 posts. 
Less than two weeks later this was corrected to 3,500 posts. 
In May, 2021 it happened
We received forecasts of 7,500 posts for the whole of 2022 and 12,800 posts for the whole of 2023. 
So, in May 2021 we received forecasts, including shipments that were more than 1,5 years ahead for more than 20,000 posts.
Mind you, we are looking at one single customer of ours who used to need around 1,500 posts per year.
I called them and asked them if they were aware of those numbers or if there was a mistake.
Their reply was that "these numbers are correct, the bikes are basically all sold already". I honestly did not know what to think or say.
To me it was already clear that the increased/increasing demands from 2020 and 2021 were not of permanent nature. 
But it was exactly this point, when I knew that this whole thing is not only going to end at some point, but that it's going to backlash and that it's going to backlash hard.
At that time I guessed that these numbers were not only forecasted to us, but most likely also to other vendors/suppliers as the brands had to utilize every single source they could, just to have their foot in as many doors as possible.
Everything was sold out, lead times of some suppliers (brake manufacturers, suspension manufacturers, ...) had exploded to over 800 days in some cases. 
Our lead times never exceeded 120 days as we are a small but focused team with very close, not only business but also personal relationships to our suppliers (suppliers that make our tubes, pistons, bolts...). So we could always operate more or less on sight and we trusted that a) we can keep it that way and b) we gambled (but just a little bit) with the prediction that demand will drastically drop, fairly soon.
Also, we are talking about very expensive dropper posts that are not part of a 2,000€ bike. They go on bikes way north of 3,000€, typically. Where would that money come from to buy all of these? We are a small fish and if we already are asked those numbers, I wouldn't want to know the numbers the big OE suppliers had to juggle with.
There was simply no scenario where I thought these numbers will really go out our doors when the time has come. 
So we decided to not order raw material for these quantities, stay focused on planning 3-maximum 4 months ahead, that is what helped us remain healthy and happy until today.

 

Wow. Thanks for sharing. What an incredible inside scoop and a reminder that sometimes... common sense makes business sense.

Thanks @Sacki , for the detail! @jeff.brines how about asking Sacki if he's up for a podcast? I best we'd all be into hearing more about Bike Yoke!