I've been shopping around for clip shoes and pedals per my recent thread, and actually surprised at how slim the pickings are at a lot of the major retailers. Most of the stuff is full MSRP, but limited selection. When I looked for Mallet DH or EN LS pedals, they were surprisingly hard to find, and I was shocked that they were $200 now (when I last dabbled in clips, I remember I got a set of Mallets EN LS for like $110) with few color options in stock. HT cleats were hard to find. Shimano GE shoes - similar story, a lot of shops will only have the GE500 or GE900 but not 700, and limited sizes/colors of each. Strangely enough there are a TON of Fox Union clip shoe varieties in stock, with some models/colors on sale. Fox must have made a gazillion of them to push into the market.
With the glut of materials in the industry post-COVID, I believe a lot of dealers/distributors became much more hesitant to do pre-orders. That being on bikes, components, apparel, shoes, protection and the like. Dealers/distributors got used to manufacturers and brands having plenty of stock and being able to get whatever they wanted, right away and often at a deal. I remember a specific brand of shoes being so overstocked at one key US distributor, that they were running massive weekly specials to clear out some inventory.
Manufacturers base their production for a year on pre-book plus X quantity. Since pre-books are down, the brands are producing less stuff. Hopefully this is the year where all of that overstock finally goes away and we get back to a more manageable product supply cycle like we have back in 2018.
Can confirm you can run 65mm stroke shock on the carbon Vala for ~160mm travel. Haven't tried on AL versions. I've done it with a Vivid...
Can confirm you can run 65mm stroke shock on the carbon Vala for ~160mm travel. Haven't tried on AL versions. I've done it with a Vivid Air which is about as large an air can as there is, no clearance issues. There's about a half inch of clearance between the seatstay bridge and seat tube with the shock out at bottom out, so plenty of clearance on that end too.
Anecdotally, I have noticed multiple shops this summer that are down on stock of things like helmets, stems, pedals, gloves etc. because they frantically tied up their free cash pre-ordering Avinox equipped bikes... that still aren’t on the floor… in that brief period before all the Eeb-talk went Gobao and E-cvt shaped.
This is all pretty much exactly what Richard Cunningham predicted when he resigned from Pinkbike a few years ago. A horsepower-driven race to the bottom.
Fox Factory reports earnings Thursday. I'll cosplay financial analyst and cover it for y'all. My guess is "SSG remains flat" in tandem with phrases like "we are really excited about the next 18 months".
Just to echo what @NoahColorado said, I too am happy with more choices and would love a world where a high number of motor/drive unit/gearbox companies are successful. Despite what I might have said on the pod, I actually don't think the motor race is assuredly going to become a monopoly where DJI owns the market. That said, this feels like a component you need a lot of capex to do it well, which really skews things in favor of Bosch and DJI. Maybe I'm wrong and Shimano has the firepower to keep up, or SRAM, but I'm not expecting such. Gobao is interesting, but the more homework I did on them, the more it seemed they are like the little fish that tails the big shark (DJI=big shark), or put differently, a "China company of old" (IE, they are great at copying, but not so incredible at engineering from first principles.) Total speculation on my behalf based on their website, my experience with one thus far and some (limited) digging.
@mickey interesting anecdote. I know its tangential but are shops having to put up money to pre-order avinox bikes? IE, they can't buy them on terms, and have to tie up capital prior to taking delivery!? That sounds crazy to me, but I'm not doing any work at the shop level so maybe brands are forcing shops to put up money on sought after e-bikes way in advance?
Anecdotally, I have noticed multiple shops this summer that are down on stock of things like helmets, stems, pedals, gloves etc. because they frantically tied up...
Anecdotally, I have noticed multiple shops this summer that are down on stock of things like helmets, stems, pedals, gloves etc. because they frantically tied up their free cash pre-ordering Avinox equipped bikes... that still aren’t on the floor… in that brief period before all the Eeb-talk went Gobao and E-cvt shaped.
This is all pretty much exactly what Richard Cunningham predicted when he resigned from Pinkbike a few years ago. A horsepower-driven race to the bottom.
My friend said last week the delivery of his Avinox powered Orbea has been postponed by 5 months to Feb/Mar 27... The demand must be really high and Avinox knows what they have as apparently they are also strict with the pricing
Few thoughts going into the week...Fox Factory reports earnings Thursday. I'll cosplay financial analyst and cover it for y'all. My guess is "SSG remains flat" in...
Few thoughts going into the week...
Fox Factory reports earnings Thursday. I'll cosplay financial analyst and cover it for y'all. My guess is "SSG remains flat" in tandem with phrases like "we are really excited about the next 18 months".
Just to echo what @NoahColorado said, I too am happy with more choices and would love a world where a high number of motor/drive unit/gearbox companies are successful. Despite what I might have said on the pod, I actually don't think the motor race is assuredly going to become a monopoly where DJI owns the market. That said, this feels like a component you need a lot of capex to do it well, which really skews things in favor of Bosch and DJI. Maybe I'm wrong and Shimano has the firepower to keep up, or SRAM, but I'm not expecting such. Gobao is interesting, but the more homework I did on them, the more it seemed they are like the little fish that tails the big shark (DJI=big shark), or put differently, a "China company of old" (IE, they are great at copying, but not so incredible at engineering from first principles.) Total speculation on my behalf based on their website, my experience with one thus far and some (limited) digging.
@mickey interesting anecdote. I know its tangential but are shops having to put up money to pre-order avinox bikes? IE, they can't buy them on terms, and have to tie up capital prior to taking delivery!? That sounds crazy to me, but I'm not doing any work at the shop level so maybe brands are forcing shops to put up money on sought after e-bikes way in advance?
Jeff,
Yes, I know multiple shops that opened new accounts with new brands to try to get themselves some Avinox stock while the hype was boiling…
Say someone wanted to open up a Pivot account(they had a couple Avinox bikes that were briefly in stock a month or so ago)…. that intial buy-in is a lot of cash. So say you bought your 3 bikes to open your account and only one of them is Avinox powered and saleable immediately for full-price… you are stuck with two bikes that were very expensive, and on paper, less-good” than the bike with better motor specs, or gasp, what if the other two bikes don’t even have motors! Unless a bikeshop is in an area with significant ebike restrictions, traditional mid-long travel trail bikes aren’t saleable at retail prices any more. The ship has sailed.
Amflow was also looking for orders up front to reserve stock…
I know you’re a “finance guy”- but the majority of independently owned bikeshops(that aren’t money losing schemes for wealthy people’s tax goals) barely hang on by a thread. The best bike shops are owned by life long enthusiasts. If someone has spent 25 or 30 years working in the bike industry, no bank or vendor is going to extend them a line of credit, because they are obviously, broke AF and have no collateral, because they worked in the bike industry while late-stage-capitalism stripped it bare and left it’s bones to bleach in the sun.
No independently owned bikeshop has financials that are “bankable” in 2026! The “real” bike shops that matter to the scene have between 1-3 employees and focus on repairs, upgrades and acccesories, where margins are higher. An independent owner who has been around the industry for their entire life is very unlikely to have the financial resources to qualify for terms on bikes, and they are smart enough to try to stay out of that debt trap after watching the stores they worked at growing up all fail… BUT when the wattage goes up SO MUCH so quickly, even lifers see the margin dollars available from flipping 2hp bicycles and get tempted.
Jeff,Yes, I know multiple shops that opened new accounts with new brands to try to get themselves some Avinox stock while the hype was boiling…Say someone...
Jeff,
Yes, I know multiple shops that opened new accounts with new brands to try to get themselves some Avinox stock while the hype was boiling…
Say someone wanted to open up a Pivot account(they had a couple Avinox bikes that were briefly in stock a month or so ago)…. that intial buy-in is a lot of cash. So say you bought your 3 bikes to open your account and only one of them is Avinox powered and saleable immediately for full-price… you are stuck with two bikes that were very expensive, and on paper, less-good” than the bike with better motor specs, or gasp, what if the other two bikes don’t even have motors! Unless a bikeshop is in an area with significant ebike restrictions, traditional mid-long travel trail bikes aren’t saleable at retail prices any more. The ship has sailed.
Amflow was also looking for orders up front to reserve stock…
I know you’re a “finance guy”- but the majority of independently owned bikeshops(that aren’t money losing schemes for wealthy people’s tax goals) barely hang on by a thread. The best bike shops are owned by life long enthusiasts. If someone has spent 25 or 30 years working in the bike industry, no bank or vendor is going to extend them a line of credit, because they are obviously, broke AF and have no collateral, because they worked in the bike industry while late-stage-capitalism stripped it bare and left it’s bones to bleach in the sun.
No independently owned bikeshop has financials that are “bankable” in 2026! The “real” bike shops that matter to the scene have between 1-3 employees and focus on repairs, upgrades and acccesories, where margins are higher. An independent owner who has been around the industry for their entire life is very unlikely to have the financial resources to qualify for terms on bikes, and they are smart enough to try to stay out of that debt trap after watching the stores they worked at growing up all fail… BUT when the wattage goes up SO MUCH so quickly, even lifers see the margin dollars available from flipping 2hp bicycles and get tempted.
Ah, got it. So shops were opening entirely new brand accounts to gain access to Avinox inventory and capitalize on the hype. That is materially different from an established dealer in good standing being required to fund inventory before taking delivery.
Most of my finance work is one step upstream from the retailer, but every outdoor company I have worked with offers qualified dealers terms. Cash up front is generally reserved for new accounts, weak credits, or unusual demand situations. The Pivot example sounds less like a failure of dealer financing and more like shops making a speculative inventory bet to access one highly desirable product.
I agree that rapidly changing motor technology and an uncertain regulatory environment make inventory risk much harder to manage. Taking two expensive bikes the market may not want in order to obtain one bike that sells immediately is a difficult proposition. Other industries have dealt with rapid product obsolescence for years, but it is relatively new territory for the bike business.
Where I disagree is with the claim that no independent bike shop is bankable or that debt is inherently a trap. That is simply too broad.
My dataset is not enormous, but I know several independently owned shops across the Western U.S. that have operated successfully for years. They are not printing money, but they have solid vendor relationships, access to credit, and financials that support normal business borrowing. They use debt and terms intelligently to manage seasonal cash flow, purchase inventory, and operate like disciplined businesses. For obvious reasons I'm not comfortable naming the name of the shops, but they are in places like Jackson Hole, Denver, Grand Junction and Moab.
I have also watched two independent shops change hands multiple times. In both cases, they sold for more than the prior owners paid and remain viable investments for the current owners.
Plenty of bike shops are poorly capitalized, poorly located, or poorly managed. Many operated by passionate bike riders with poor business sense. Plenty also fail. But that is not the same as saying independent bike shops are categorically unbankable or that successful operators do not exist. Demand, location, inventory discipline, service revenue, and financial management matter enormously, which I know is saying the obvious part outloud.
Location is literally the only thing that matters for small-scale bike shops these days. To really thrive, many, many, things out of the control of a small business owner need to exist. To thrive, once it took building community in your store with group rides, racing, etc. Car-centric culture and social media driven concepts like strava have decimated the traditional ways an enthusiastic entrepreneur could build a business. People are afraid to ride road bikes, people’s egos have been cultivated to cater to Strava Kudos instead of Wednesday Night Worlds… the reality of bike shop ownership has become full Enshitified by smartphone addiction and a love of brand new cul-de-sacs in the middle of great road bike country.
Compared to 20 years ago, the middle Appalachian area, for example, has less than half as many bike shops as it once did. The economic factors at play are hard to ignore. The shops that exist today are where the beneficiaries of the k-shaped economy live.
The complex nature of the decline in the bicycle industry and the cost barriers to entry in the e-bike age are already making it near impossible to start selling bicycles in the places where state governments are throwing millions of dollars at new trail development, hoping for job creation, recreation and tourism. These state agencies that are stewards of all of our tax revenues can’t get away with opening ebike rental operations, etc… the idea is that, somehow, someone local will take a chance… Economic Development only works when the economy works.
The majority of Americans can’t miss a single paycheck without facing homelessness and can barely pay for food… How are they going to get loans to start a bussiness? Who are they going to sell things to? Generationally , there are broad swaths of America that are so poor in bicycle culture, and in economic conditions that dating and terms just don’t work.
Jeff,Location is literally the only thing that matters for small-scale bike shops these days. To really thrive, many, many, things out of the control of...
Jeff,
Location is literally the only thing that matters for small-scale bike shops these days. To really thrive, many, many, things out of the control of a small business owner need to exist. To thrive, once it took building community in your store with group rides, racing, etc. Car-centric culture and social media driven concepts like strava have decimated the traditional ways an enthusiastic entrepreneur could build a business. People are afraid to ride road bikes, people’s egos have been cultivated to cater to Strava Kudos instead of Wednesday Night Worlds… the reality of bike shop ownership has become full Enshitified by smartphone addiction and a love of brand new cul-de-sacs in the middle of great road bike country.
Compared to 20 years ago, the middle Appalachian area, for example, has less than half as many bike shops as it once did. The economic factors at play are hard to ignore. The shops that exist today are where the beneficiaries of the k-shaped economy live.
The complex nature of the decline in the bicycle industry and the cost barriers to entry in the e-bike age are already making it near impossible to start selling bicycles in the places where state governments are throwing millions of dollars at new trail development, hoping for job creation, recreation and tourism. These state agencies that are stewards of all of our tax revenues can’t get away with opening ebike rental operations, etc… the idea is that, somehow, someone local will take a chance… Economic Development only works when the economy works.
The majority of Americans can’t miss a single paycheck without facing homelessness and can barely pay for food… How are they going to get loans to start a bussiness? Who are they going to sell things to? Generationally , there are broad swaths of America that are so poor in bicycle culture, and in economic conditions that dating and terms just don’t work.
I do not disagree that income inequality, housing costs, weak local economies, and the erosion of discretionary spending make it harder to sell expensive recreational products. I have been making that argument for a while, and it fits directly into the “barbell hypothesis.” That said, invoking homelessness, smartphone addiction, Strava, cul-de-sacs, and the broader failures of capitalism does not demonstrate that independent bike shops are unbankable or that cycling culture is broadly collapsing. This conversation has taken a relatively narrow discussion about dealer economics and expanded it into a sweeping cultural diagnosis that is difficult to respond to directly, though I'll give it an attempt...
My lived experience is obviously very different than yours.
Though anecdotal, our local riding community in an area of ~15,000 people is on fire. We have “Stravaduro” races every Thursday with both analog and e-bike categories. Weekend races regularly draw hundreds of riders. Pierre’s Hole had a huge field, the Mountain States Cup is coming up with what will likely be similar participation, and NICA events bring so many kids and families to Targhee that they strain the local infrastructure.
To me, this does not look like a culture hollowed out by Strava and smartphones but instead looks like cycling culture evolving as technology (and culture) evolve with it. Change, after all, is inevitable.
Maybe Wednesday Night Worlds is less important than it once was. In its place, we now have NICA, e-bike categories, trail organizations, online communities, destination events, and entirely new ways for people to find one another and participate. Some older forms of community may have weakened, but others have grown dramatically. That's the way things tend to go...
I also do not buy the idea that cycling was broadly accessible and healthy 20 years ago and has only deteriorated since. After all, mountain biking has always been an expensive discretionary pursuit. You have generally needed either money, unusual priorities, or both. This isn't evidence that the system is uniquely rigged against someone who chooses to open a bike shop. Selling bikes is hard because bikes are highly discretionary, seasonal, inventory-intensive goods with rapidly changing technology, relatively narrow margins and highly elastic demand. That is a difficult business model, is not a conspiracy, and it is not categorically unfinanceable. (most businesses are hard...go read measuring the moat!)
Location matters, of course and it has always mattered in retail. Then again, so does rent, management, service revenue, inventory turns, purchasing discipline, customer experience, labor efficiency, and capital allocation. A good location cannot rescue a badly run shop, and a disciplined shop can absolutely build a viable business where sufficient demand exists.
I honestly think nostalgia is doing too much work here. The past was not universally better, the present is not universally broken, and the existence of struggling shops does not mean successful independent shops are imaginary.
Again, I have too many proof points to the contrary.
@jeff.brines a bit off topic but I seem to remember you saying in a Podcast you live in the Driggs area. Where are these e-bike races happening? A few years ago when I visited every area was heavily signed NO-E-BIKES. Some local Aussie dude ratted us out to Targhee patrollers for having two ladies on SL e-bikes in our group and they made us leave. Have things changed since then?
Jeff,Location is literally the only thing that matters for small-scale bike shops these days. To really thrive, many, many, things out of the control of...
Jeff,
Location is literally the only thing that matters for small-scale bike shops these days. To really thrive, many, many, things out of the control of a small business owner need to exist. To thrive, once it took building community in your store with group rides, racing, etc. Car-centric culture and social media driven concepts like strava have decimated the traditional ways an enthusiastic entrepreneur could build a business. People are afraid to ride road bikes, people’s egos have been cultivated to cater to Strava Kudos instead of Wednesday Night Worlds… the reality of bike shop ownership has become full Enshitified by smartphone addiction and a love of brand new cul-de-sacs in the middle of great road bike country.
Compared to 20 years ago, the middle Appalachian area, for example, has less than half as many bike shops as it once did. The economic factors at play are hard to ignore. The shops that exist today are where the beneficiaries of the k-shaped economy live.
The complex nature of the decline in the bicycle industry and the cost barriers to entry in the e-bike age are already making it near impossible to start selling bicycles in the places where state governments are throwing millions of dollars at new trail development, hoping for job creation, recreation and tourism. These state agencies that are stewards of all of our tax revenues can’t get away with opening ebike rental operations, etc… the idea is that, somehow, someone local will take a chance… Economic Development only works when the economy works.
The majority of Americans can’t miss a single paycheck without facing homelessness and can barely pay for food… How are they going to get loans to start a bussiness? Who are they going to sell things to? Generationally , there are broad swaths of America that are so poor in bicycle culture, and in economic conditions that dating and terms just don’t work.
2024 was decided by one party offering no taxes on tips and overtime and the other offering a 50,000 dollar tax credit to start a new business. If you gonna throw poor people a bone at least make it something they can reach.
don't want to derail too hard, but are people having trouble sourcing XC bikes/gear/parts in a similar way to DH parts that were mentioned? i would...
don't want to derail too hard, but are people having trouble sourcing XC bikes/gear/parts in a similar way to DH parts that were mentioned? i would figure XC is way less niche, but am curious.
Can only speak for Europe, but yes. An awful lot of generally popular stuff seems to be sold out / not available to order currently. Probably a result of the brands placing much fewer orders of much smaller volume with their OEM's to avoid overstock at all costs.
@jeff.brines a bit off topic but I seem to remember you saying in a Podcast you live in the Driggs area. Where are these e-bike races...
@jeff.brines a bit off topic but I seem to remember you saying in a Podcast you live in the Driggs area. Where are these e-bike races happening? A few years ago when I visited every area was heavily signed NO-E-BIKES. Some local Aussie dude ratted us out to Targhee patrollers for having two ladies on SL e-bikes in our group and they made us leave. Have things changed since then?
Good question!
Targhee has revised their stance on e-bikes, though honestly I rarely ride up there.
There are a gazillion moto trails in the snakes/big holes. Many of them are awesome, and you can ride whatever e bike you want on them (Class, 1, 3 or full on e moto)
Good question! Targhee has revised their stance on e-bikes, though honestly I rarely ride up there. There are a gazillion moto trails in the snakes/big holes. Many of...
Good question!
Targhee has revised their stance on e-bikes, though honestly I rarely ride up there.
There are a gazillion moto trails in the snakes/big holes. Many of them are awesome, and you can ride whatever e bike you want on them (Class, 1, 3 or full on e moto)
YOU DIDN'T ANSWER THE QUESTION!
My mom grew up in Driggs. I moved pipe up there as a kid on my grandpa's farm. Favorite place in the world.
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I see more kids then ever on MTB's locally, with numbers at organised clubs and race events following suit. Commencal is far ahead of the pack here, but I doubt it stays that way for long. The inherent turnover of bikes as a kid grows naturally leads to sales, and engaging a user young can help to align a rider with a brand from an early age. KTM did the same in the early 00's by pouring massive amounts into their minibike range, and it worked.
@jeff.brines a bit off topic but I seem to remember you saying in a Podcast you live in the Driggs area. Where are these e-bike races...
@jeff.brines a bit off topic but I seem to remember you saying in a Podcast you live in the Driggs area. Where are these e-bike races happening? A few years ago when I visited every area was heavily signed NO-E-BIKES. Some local Aussie dude ratted us out to Targhee patrollers for having two ladies on SL e-bikes in our group and they made us leave. Have things changed since then?
Good question! Targhee has revised their stance on e-bikes, though honestly I rarely ride up there. There are a gazillion moto trails in the snakes/big holes. Many of...
Good question!
Targhee has revised their stance on e-bikes, though honestly I rarely ride up there.
There are a gazillion moto trails in the snakes/big holes. Many of them are awesome, and you can ride whatever e bike you want on them (Class, 1, 3 or full on e moto)
Thanks for entertaining my digression. Good to hear there’s positive progress.
I have not finished the latest Escape Collective industry special, but I thought it was interesting that when talking about growth sectors the higher-up at QBP stated that MTB was not one of them (despite road also getting the nod for growth). They stated something akin to 'progress has stalled' which is interesting given incoming 32" bikes (which Salsa/QBP already sells).
E-bikes were an area for growth but mostly down to the electric technology, not really the bikes themselves.
I think we've heard this a few times in the forum, but interesting to hear someone at one of the bigger brands say it. I keep seeing new XC/DC/trail bikes being released that sound cool but then realize it's fundamentally the same as my 2020 mtb.
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I...
Takes from q2 substack
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I see more kids then ever on MTB's locally, with numbers at organised clubs and race events following suit. Commencal is far ahead of the pack here, but I doubt it stays that way for long. The inherent turnover of bikes as a kid grows naturally leads to sales, and engaging a user young can help to align a rider with a brand from an early age. KTM did the same in the early 00's by pouring massive amounts into their minibike range, and it worked.
I wonder how much room there really is to grow in this segment that isn't cannibalistic. Norco, Commencal, and Rocky are all "main" brands that have a strong kids/youth program off the top of my head. I remember over COVID people calling from across Canada trying to get at our Rocky and Norco kids bike stock because we were one of the few shops with Reapers and Sight/Fluid youths, but I can't imagine that trend has persisted. Is there anyone in the west who wants to spend 3k+ for a full suspension kids/youth bike who can't right now?
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I...
Takes from q2 substack
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I see more kids then ever on MTB's locally, with numbers at organised clubs and race events following suit. Commencal is far ahead of the pack here, but I doubt it stays that way for long. The inherent turnover of bikes as a kid grows naturally leads to sales, and engaging a user young can help to align a rider with a brand from an early age. KTM did the same in the early 00's by pouring massive amounts into their minibike range, and it worked.
Good question. A few thoughts.
I do think there is some opportunity in kids’, tween, and teenage bikes, but I suspect most of the economics will accrue to brands with genuine economies of scale. I also do not think any major part of the market is completely unserved today.
Price sensitivity matters enormously because parents know the bike may only fit for a couple of seasons. Everyone wants the Pareto-frontier kids’ bike: as light, capable, and durable as possible without spending adult-bike money. That generally favors larger brands with scale economies than more bespoke smaller volume type of players.
Though I think there is room to innovate here, any short-term product advantage will probably commoditize quickly. The larger prize is creating the kind of emotional attachment many moto riders have to KTM, Honda, or Yamaha because that was the brand they rode as a kid. Done properly, a youth program is customer acquisition measured over decades rather than seasons.
That said, I am not convinced bicycle brand loyalty works quite like it does in powersports. A great kids’ bike may create familiarity and goodwill, but it probably does not lock someone into the brand for life, but maybe?
As a slight tangent, I expect kids’ e-bikes to become much more common as prices, and to a lesser extent weights, come down. One of the biggest unlocks for a parent who wants to take a legitimate trail ride with a 10-year-old is giving the kid enough assistance to keep the group together and enjoy the experience.
So, big picture, I do not think anyone is going to have a breakout quarter because they introduced the right kids’ bike. Nor do I think selling a killer kids’ bike necessarily creates a customer for life. But it is an interesting part of the market, with stronger participation trends and more room for meaningful product improvement than the mature analog adult-bike market.
It’s interesting how quickly the market shifted. A few years ago it felt like there was too much inventory everywhere, and now finding specific models and sizes can be surprisingly difficult.
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I...
Takes from q2 substack
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I see more kids then ever on MTB's locally, with numbers at organised clubs and race events following suit. Commencal is far ahead of the pack here, but I doubt it stays that way for long. The inherent turnover of bikes as a kid grows naturally leads to sales, and engaging a user young can help to align a rider with a brand from an early age. KTM did the same in the early 00's by pouring massive amounts into their minibike range, and it worked.
I wonder how much room there really is to grow in this segment that isn't cannibalistic. Norco, Commencal, and Rocky are all "main" brands that have...
I wonder how much room there really is to grow in this segment that isn't cannibalistic. Norco, Commencal, and Rocky are all "main" brands that have a strong kids/youth program off the top of my head. I remember over COVID people calling from across Canada trying to get at our Rocky and Norco kids bike stock because we were one of the few shops with Reapers and Sight/Fluid youths, but I can't imagine that trend has persisted. Is there anyone in the west who wants to spend 3k+ for a full suspension kids/youth bike who can't right now?
A number of kids bike brands have shuttered since '22-'23 including Cleary, Isla, Frog, and I'm sure others. Globally, woom Bikes still leads the way. In the US, a brand like Trailcraft seems to be doing ok and have added models with larger wheels as kids age up.
Outside of those examples, kids are seemingly going from balance bike, to e-scooter, to e-moto lately.
Bummer. I had a few sources tell me they were going to pull out of the tailspin, but honestly I didn't see how they'd do it. This will be (likely) a very notable event for the European bike industry, but probably won't have a huge impact in North America. For those wondering, brands under their umbrella include Haibike, Ghost, Lapierre, Raleigh, and Batavus etc doing close to €1 billion in annual revenue. (with a B )
The biggest near-term impacts will likely be dealer losses, warranty uncertainty, supplier pain and another wave of heavily discounted inventory. Bla bla bla. Different year same shit.
Assuming formal insolvency proceedings do in fact occur, the strongest brands will likely be sold and continue under new ownership. Who wants to go buy LaPierre and Ghost with me!? lol.
I have not finished the latest Escape Collective industry special, but I thought it was interesting that when talking about growth sectors the higher-up at QBP...
I have not finished the latest Escape Collective industry special, but I thought it was interesting that when talking about growth sectors the higher-up at QBP stated that MTB was not one of them (despite road also getting the nod for growth). They stated something akin to 'progress has stalled' which is interesting given incoming 32" bikes (which Salsa/QBP already sells).
E-bikes were an area for growth but mostly down to the electric technology, not really the bikes themselves.
I think we've heard this a few times in the forum, but interesting to hear someone at one of the bigger brands say it. I keep seeing new XC/DC/trail bikes being released that sound cool but then realize it's fundamentally the same as my 2020 mtb.
So, the industry starts trying to sell us on 32" wheels (- which are effectively a whole new eco system of parts and standards, requiring a pretty steep buy-in) just as the mountainbike sector stops growing.
I've been shopping around for clip shoes and pedals per my recent thread, and actually surprised at how slim the pickings are at a lot of the major retailers. Most of the stuff is full MSRP, but limited selection. When I looked for Mallet DH or EN LS pedals, they were surprisingly hard to find, and I was shocked that they were $200 now (when I last dabbled in clips, I remember I got a set of Mallets EN LS for like $110) with few color options in stock. HT cleats were hard to find. Shimano GE shoes - similar story, a lot of shops will only have the GE500 or GE900 but not 700, and limited sizes/colors of each. Strangely enough there are a TON of Fox Union clip shoe varieties in stock, with some models/colors on sale. Fox must have made a gazillion of them to push into the market.
With the glut of materials in the industry post-COVID, I believe a lot of dealers/distributors became much more hesitant to do pre-orders. That being on bikes, components, apparel, shoes, protection and the like. Dealers/distributors got used to manufacturers and brands having plenty of stock and being able to get whatever they wanted, right away and often at a deal. I remember a specific brand of shoes being so overstocked at one key US distributor, that they were running massive weekly specials to clear out some inventory.
Manufacturers base their production for a year on pre-book plus X quantity. Since pre-books are down, the brands are producing less stuff. Hopefully this is the year where all of that overstock finally goes away and we get back to a more manageable product supply cycle like we have back in 2018.
65mm works well on the Vala Al. Picked up a 2025 Float X2 on discount and it fits perfectly.
Perfect. Thank you.
Anecdotally, I have noticed multiple shops this summer that are down on stock of things like helmets, stems, pedals, gloves etc. because they frantically tied up their free cash pre-ordering Avinox equipped bikes... that still aren’t on the floor… in that brief period before all the Eeb-talk went Gobao and E-cvt shaped.
This is all pretty much exactly what Richard Cunningham predicted when he resigned from Pinkbike a few years ago. A horsepower-driven race to the bottom.
Few thoughts going into the week...
My friend said last week the delivery of his Avinox powered Orbea has been postponed by 5 months to Feb/Mar 27... The demand must be really high and Avinox knows what they have as apparently they are also strict with the pricing
Jeff,
Yes, I know multiple shops that opened new accounts with new brands to try to get themselves some Avinox stock while the hype was boiling…
Say someone wanted to open up a Pivot account(they had a couple Avinox bikes that were briefly in stock a month or so ago)…. that intial buy-in is a lot of cash. So say you bought your 3 bikes to open your account and only one of them is Avinox powered and saleable immediately for full-price… you are stuck with two bikes that were very expensive, and on paper, less-good” than the bike with better motor specs, or gasp, what if the other two bikes don’t even have motors! Unless a bikeshop is in an area with significant ebike restrictions, traditional mid-long travel trail bikes aren’t saleable at retail prices any more. The ship has sailed.
Amflow was also looking for orders up front to reserve stock…
I know you’re a “finance guy”- but the majority of independently owned bikeshops(that aren’t money losing schemes for wealthy people’s tax goals) barely hang on by a thread. The best bike shops are owned by life long enthusiasts. If someone has spent 25 or 30 years working in the bike industry, no bank or vendor is going to extend them a line of credit, because they are obviously, broke AF and have no collateral, because they worked in the bike industry while late-stage-capitalism stripped it bare and left it’s bones to bleach in the sun.
No independently owned bikeshop has financials that are “bankable” in 2026! The “real” bike shops that matter to the scene have between 1-3 employees and focus on repairs, upgrades and acccesories, where margins are higher. An independent owner who has been around the industry for their entire life is very unlikely to have the financial resources to qualify for terms on bikes, and they are smart enough to try to stay out of that debt trap after watching the stores they worked at growing up all fail… BUT when the wattage goes up SO MUCH so quickly, even lifers see the margin dollars available from flipping 2hp bicycles and get tempted.
Ah, got it. So shops were opening entirely new brand accounts to gain access to Avinox inventory and capitalize on the hype. That is materially different from an established dealer in good standing being required to fund inventory before taking delivery.
Most of my finance work is one step upstream from the retailer, but every outdoor company I have worked with offers qualified dealers terms. Cash up front is generally reserved for new accounts, weak credits, or unusual demand situations. The Pivot example sounds less like a failure of dealer financing and more like shops making a speculative inventory bet to access one highly desirable product.
I agree that rapidly changing motor technology and an uncertain regulatory environment make inventory risk much harder to manage. Taking two expensive bikes the market may not want in order to obtain one bike that sells immediately is a difficult proposition. Other industries have dealt with rapid product obsolescence for years, but it is relatively new territory for the bike business.
Where I disagree is with the claim that no independent bike shop is bankable or that debt is inherently a trap. That is simply too broad.
My dataset is not enormous, but I know several independently owned shops across the Western U.S. that have operated successfully for years. They are not printing money, but they have solid vendor relationships, access to credit, and financials that support normal business borrowing. They use debt and terms intelligently to manage seasonal cash flow, purchase inventory, and operate like disciplined businesses. For obvious reasons I'm not comfortable naming the name of the shops, but they are in places like Jackson Hole, Denver, Grand Junction and Moab.
I have also watched two independent shops change hands multiple times. In both cases, they sold for more than the prior owners paid and remain viable investments for the current owners.
Plenty of bike shops are poorly capitalized, poorly located, or poorly managed. Many operated by passionate bike riders with poor business sense. Plenty also fail. But that is not the same as saying independent bike shops are categorically unbankable or that successful operators do not exist. Demand, location, inventory discipline, service revenue, and financial management matter enormously, which I know is saying the obvious part outloud.
Jeff,
Location is literally the only thing that matters for small-scale bike shops these days. To really thrive, many, many, things out of the control of a small business owner need to exist. To thrive, once it took building community in your store with group rides, racing, etc. Car-centric culture and social media driven concepts like strava have decimated the traditional ways an enthusiastic entrepreneur could build a business. People are afraid to ride road bikes, people’s egos have been cultivated to cater to Strava Kudos instead of Wednesday Night Worlds… the reality of bike shop ownership has become full Enshitified by smartphone addiction and a love of brand new cul-de-sacs in the middle of great road bike country.
Compared to 20 years ago, the middle Appalachian area, for example, has less than half as many bike shops as it once did. The economic factors at play are hard to ignore. The shops that exist today are where the beneficiaries of the k-shaped economy live.
The complex nature of the decline in the bicycle industry and the cost barriers to entry in the e-bike age are already making it near impossible to start selling bicycles in the places where state governments are throwing millions of dollars at new trail development, hoping for job creation, recreation and tourism. These state agencies that are stewards of all of our tax revenues can’t get away with opening ebike rental operations, etc… the idea is that, somehow, someone local will take a chance… Economic Development only works when the economy works.
The majority of Americans can’t miss a single paycheck without facing homelessness and can barely pay for food… How are they going to get loans to start a bussiness? Who are they going to sell things to? Generationally , there are broad swaths of America that are so poor in bicycle culture, and in economic conditions that dating and terms just don’t work.
I do not disagree that income inequality, housing costs, weak local economies, and the erosion of discretionary spending make it harder to sell expensive recreational products. I have been making that argument for a while, and it fits directly into the “barbell hypothesis.” That said, invoking homelessness, smartphone addiction, Strava, cul-de-sacs, and the broader failures of capitalism does not demonstrate that independent bike shops are unbankable or that cycling culture is broadly collapsing. This conversation has taken a relatively narrow discussion about dealer economics and expanded it into a sweeping cultural diagnosis that is difficult to respond to directly, though I'll give it an attempt...
My lived experience is obviously very different than yours.
Though anecdotal, our local riding community in an area of ~15,000 people is on fire. We have “Stravaduro” races every Thursday with both analog and e-bike categories. Weekend races regularly draw hundreds of riders. Pierre’s Hole had a huge field, the Mountain States Cup is coming up with what will likely be similar participation, and NICA events bring so many kids and families to Targhee that they strain the local infrastructure.
To me, this does not look like a culture hollowed out by Strava and smartphones but instead looks like cycling culture evolving as technology (and culture) evolve with it. Change, after all, is inevitable.
Maybe Wednesday Night Worlds is less important than it once was. In its place, we now have NICA, e-bike categories, trail organizations, online communities, destination events, and entirely new ways for people to find one another and participate. Some older forms of community may have weakened, but others have grown dramatically. That's the way things tend to go...
I also do not buy the idea that cycling was broadly accessible and healthy 20 years ago and has only deteriorated since. After all, mountain biking has always been an expensive discretionary pursuit. You have generally needed either money, unusual priorities, or both. This isn't evidence that the system is uniquely rigged against someone who chooses to open a bike shop. Selling bikes is hard because bikes are highly discretionary, seasonal, inventory-intensive goods with rapidly changing technology, relatively narrow margins and highly elastic demand. That is a difficult business model, is not a conspiracy, and it is not categorically unfinanceable. (most businesses are hard...go read measuring the moat!)
Location matters, of course and it has always mattered in retail. Then again, so does rent, management, service revenue, inventory turns, purchasing discipline, customer experience, labor efficiency, and capital allocation. A good location cannot rescue a badly run shop, and a disciplined shop can absolutely build a viable business where sufficient demand exists.
I honestly think nostalgia is doing too much work here. The past was not universally better, the present is not universally broken, and the existence of struggling shops does not mean successful independent shops are imaginary.
Again, I have too many proof points to the contrary.
@jeff.brines a bit off topic but I seem to remember you saying in a Podcast you live in the Driggs area. Where are these e-bike races happening? A few years ago when I visited every area was heavily signed NO-E-BIKES. Some local Aussie dude ratted us out to Targhee patrollers for having two ladies on SL e-bikes in our group and they made us leave. Have things changed since then?
2024 was decided by one party offering no taxes on tips and overtime and the other offering a 50,000 dollar tax credit to start a new business. If you gonna throw poor people a bone at least make it something they can reach.
Can only speak for Europe, but yes. An awful lot of generally popular stuff seems to be sold out / not available to order currently. Probably a result of the brands placing much fewer orders of much smaller volume with their OEM's to avoid overstock at all costs.
Good question!
YOU DIDN'T ANSWER THE QUESTION!
My mom grew up in Driggs. I moved pipe up there as a kid on my grandpa's farm. Favorite place in the world.
@jeff.brines regarding the above, do you have any thoughts or analysis on legacy brands expanding into the high end kids / tweens MTB market. I see more kids then ever on MTB's locally, with numbers at organised clubs and race events following suit. Commencal is far ahead of the pack here, but I doubt it stays that way for long. The inherent turnover of bikes as a kid grows naturally leads to sales, and engaging a user young can help to align a rider with a brand from an early age. KTM did the same in the early 00's by pouring massive amounts into their minibike range, and it worked.
https://www.ride-mtb.com/de/news/paukenschlag-transalpes-stellt-betrieb-ein
transalpes is no more
Thanks for entertaining my digression. Good to hear there’s positive progress.
I have not finished the latest Escape Collective industry special, but I thought it was interesting that when talking about growth sectors the higher-up at QBP stated that MTB was not one of them (despite road also getting the nod for growth). They stated something akin to 'progress has stalled' which is interesting given incoming 32" bikes (which Salsa/QBP already sells).
E-bikes were an area for growth but mostly down to the electric technology, not really the bikes themselves.
I think we've heard this a few times in the forum, but interesting to hear someone at one of the bigger brands say it. I keep seeing new XC/DC/trail bikes being released that sound cool but then realize it's fundamentally the same as my 2020 mtb.
I wonder how much room there really is to grow in this segment that isn't cannibalistic. Norco, Commencal, and Rocky are all "main" brands that have a strong kids/youth program off the top of my head. I remember over COVID people calling from across Canada trying to get at our Rocky and Norco kids bike stock because we were one of the few shops with Reapers and Sight/Fluid youths, but I can't imagine that trend has persisted. Is there anyone in the west who wants to spend 3k+ for a full suspension kids/youth bike who can't right now?
Good question. A few thoughts.
I do think there is some opportunity in kids’, tween, and teenage bikes, but I suspect most of the economics will accrue to brands with genuine economies of scale. I also do not think any major part of the market is completely unserved today.
Price sensitivity matters enormously because parents know the bike may only fit for a couple of seasons. Everyone wants the Pareto-frontier kids’ bike: as light, capable, and durable as possible without spending adult-bike money. That generally favors larger brands with scale economies than more bespoke smaller volume type of players.
Though I think there is room to innovate here, any short-term product advantage will probably commoditize quickly. The larger prize is creating the kind of emotional attachment many moto riders have to KTM, Honda, or Yamaha because that was the brand they rode as a kid. Done properly, a youth program is customer acquisition measured over decades rather than seasons.
That said, I am not convinced bicycle brand loyalty works quite like it does in powersports. A great kids’ bike may create familiarity and goodwill, but it probably does not lock someone into the brand for life, but maybe?
As a slight tangent, I expect kids’ e-bikes to become much more common as prices, and to a lesser extent weights, come down. One of the biggest unlocks for a parent who wants to take a legitimate trail ride with a 10-year-old is giving the kid enough assistance to keep the group together and enjoy the experience.
So, big picture, I do not think anyone is going to have a breakout quarter because they introduced the right kids’ bike. Nor do I think selling a killer kids’ bike necessarily creates a customer for life. But it is an interesting part of the market, with stronger participation trends and more room for meaningful product improvement than the mature analog adult-bike market.
And separately:
@hamncheez2003 , here is the account for one of the guys running our local Stravaduro races, including separate e-bike categories:
https://www.instagram.com/jh_stravaduro/
Another covid deal gone sour. The writing was on the wall for a while but it seems like they ran out of options.
https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/bikemaker-accell-starts-ins…
It’s interesting how quickly the market shifted. A few years ago it felt like there was too much inventory everywhere, and now finding specific models and sizes can be surprisingly difficult.
A number of kids bike brands have shuttered since '22-'23 including Cleary, Isla, Frog, and I'm sure others. Globally, woom Bikes still leads the way. In the US, a brand like Trailcraft seems to be doing ok and have added models with larger wheels as kids age up.
Outside of those examples, kids are seemingly going from balance bike, to e-scooter, to e-moto lately.
Here's a little more on the topic from BikeBiz: https://bikebiz.com/accell-group-files-for-insolvency-as-takeover-negot…
Bummer. I had a few sources tell me they were going to pull out of the tailspin, but honestly I didn't see how they'd do it. This will be (likely) a very notable event for the European bike industry, but probably won't have a huge impact in North America. For those wondering, brands under their umbrella include Haibike, Ghost, Lapierre, Raleigh, and Batavus etc doing close to €1 billion in annual revenue. (with a B )
The biggest near-term impacts will likely be dealer losses, warranty uncertainty, supplier pain and another wave of heavily discounted inventory. Bla bla bla. Different year same shit.
Assuming formal insolvency proceedings do in fact occur, the strongest brands will likely be sold and continue under new ownership. Who wants to go buy LaPierre and Ghost with me!? lol.
Jo Jeff,
I'm in, at least for Ghost.
So, the industry starts trying to sell us on 32" wheels (- which are effectively a whole new eco system of parts and standards, requiring a pretty steep buy-in) just as the mountainbike sector stops growing.
Coincidence?
Ironic, it might be unpredictable wheel sizes that finally mainstream inverted forks
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