"The one thing DJI and the broader Asian push have done better than anyone is move fast and iterate faster, shipping new platforms before the last ones reach dealer floors. You cannot answer that with a committee and a two-year product cycle. The West is not losing because it cannot build. It is losing because it cannot turn fast enough, and the other side keeps accelerating."
And
"Trek has access to capital and is very large, but if I were to pick one company that doesn’t survive this era, its Trek. At a point, the market can no longer support this many big companies that are offering things people just aren’t buying."
@jeff.brines Noticed this "(Worth a NOAA link before you publish.)" 😀
Fascinating read @jeff.brines ! THANK YOU!Interesting to read about Amer Sports as I had heard Salomon was doing very well. "What this means is high end...
Interesting to read about Amer Sports as I had heard Salomon was doing very well. "What this means is high end technical outerwear with a brand name is doing well." More their fashion brand is doing well from what I heard. Think North Face comparison, which I has been mentioned somewhere before?
Poor Cannondale, but why would you run an expensive, slighlty niche (that's "neee-sh2, not "nitch") brand if your were PON.
Cannondale isn't niche at all. If PON cans it that is a huge loss to cycling as a whole. Cannondale is one of the most storied (and interesting!) brands across road, DH & XC.
Psst. The most valuable company in the world does this.Nvidia shows its customers a roadmap that stretches years into the future. Vera Rubin, Vera Rubin Ultra...
Psst. The most valuable company in the world does this.
Nvidia shows its customers a roadmap that stretches years into the future. Vera Rubin, Vera Rubin Ultra, and Feynman have all been announced, taking the company through 2028.
Obviously, B2B buyers are different from B2C buyers, and maybe conflating the two is the error here. That said, the more I think about it, I’m not sure it really matters. Maybe a few people sit on the sidelines waiting for X or Y, but most people just want to get out and ride their bike. If you’re in the market for a bike this summer, you probably aren’t delaying that purchase because of something coming in the future.
Plus, yeah, it’s a hell of a flex to the Bosches, SRAMs, and Shimanos of the world.
Nvidia and most chip designer companies operate based on the litography roadmap that the chipmaker have. We already know that updated 4nm, 3nm and 2nm chip are in various prototype & testing stage with planned rollout for well into 2029. So Nividia is only planning new generation based on the TSMC timeline. We will only know what the actual product spec (how much core, memory size, memory bus width, wattage and various speed) 3-6 months in advance which is usually 1 1/2+ year since the last top sku was launched.
RTX 3090 was launched sept 2020
RTX 4090 was launched sept 2022
RTX 5090 was launched jan 2025
The CPU/GPU industry has been used to Moore's Law even though we are nearing the taper off point.
I would love if someone did a deep dive into pons cycling acquisitions and ultimate closures of several brands. Definitely an interesting story there.
I wonder if maybe it will become a purely gravel/xc brand. That does seem to be their most popular models and doesn’t compete as much with pon’s biggest brands which have less market share in that category. But my guess would be no if the rumor is true.
So from the full portfolio of Cervelo, Focus, Gazelle, Kalkhoff, Union, Santa Cruz, Reserve, Public, BBB, Urban Arrow, Nimbl, Veloretti and the whole Dorel Sports group consisting of Cannondale, Schwinn, GT, Mongoose Caloi and Iron Horse.
Only GT and Union got closed by PON , the others are mostly Dorel legacy brand that were already closed before PON acquired Dorel in 2021.
Iterating so quickly that your previous generation is barely out the door isn't sustainable and I think there are a lot of good reasons that established...
Iterating so quickly that your previous generation is barely out the door isn't sustainable and I think there are a lot of good reasons that established Western industries don't do it that way any more.
However it seems like an effective strategy if you're trying to eat the incumbents' lunch. Be one of the upstarts flooding the market and hope you come out on top...
Psst. The most valuable company in the world does this.Nvidia shows its customers a roadmap that stretches years into the future. Vera Rubin, Vera Rubin Ultra...
Psst. The most valuable company in the world does this.
Nvidia shows its customers a roadmap that stretches years into the future. Vera Rubin, Vera Rubin Ultra, and Feynman have all been announced, taking the company through 2028.
Obviously, B2B buyers are different from B2C buyers, and maybe conflating the two is the error here. That said, the more I think about it, I’m not sure it really matters. Maybe a few people sit on the sidelines waiting for X or Y, but most people just want to get out and ride their bike. If you’re in the market for a bike this summer, you probably aren’t delaying that purchase because of something coming in the future.
Plus, yeah, it’s a hell of a flex to the Bosches, SRAMs, and Shimanos of the world.
Nvidia is in a very unique situation where everyone's panic buying its stuff so as not to be "left behind", before they've thought about why they need it or how they're going to use it. It's bizarre.
What I would argue at this point is that waiting for a gearbox ebike is not like waiting for a next gen gpu. A next gen gpu is a generational thing, it was like waiting for Transmission to drop to see what it's like before buying a bike. More or less same old with some tweaks.
Waiting for a gearbox ebike is like it was waiting for PCI Express PC platforms to replace AGP graphics slots as that opened up a whole new paradigm in the PC space - future compatibility essentially up to today, multi GPU setups, etc.).
True, if you need a bike today, buy one. If you have a functioning bike, waiting for the gearboxes makes all the sense I would say. For anyone following bike news I think this pulls a potential purchase from now-ish into the future.
Cannondale isn't niche at all. If PON cans it that is a huge loss to cycling as a whole. Cannondale is one of the most storied...
Cannondale isn't niche at all. If PON cans it that is a huge loss to cycling as a whole. Cannondale is one of the most storied (and interesting!) brands across road, DH & XC.
name one stand-out product they released in the last 5 years that has features no one else offers
name one stand-out product they released in the last 5 years that has features no one else offers
Moterra SL had quite a few brands on notice at the time of launch with a full size motor and reasonable battery size in what was a SL weight bracket. They also offered a unique Flexstay design at the time that wasn't widely used elsewhere.
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility. We've already seen this in a somewhat small scale in the automotive space (although not so much in the US Market compared to Europe, so you can simmer down Americans) and I can certainly imagine a world where this happens to something like Trek. Maybe Chinese brands will have no interest in doing so when they can undercut traditional brands by about half, for now, if they want.
On the Cannondale note, maybe it's because I'm Canadian, but other than the occasional review or race result, I have never seen much market share in any of the Canadian markets, and here, the brand has been irrelevant for at least 15 years. Not telling for Ontario and east but perhaps telling for BC - bikes from all over the world show up here so if a brand is huge elsewhere, they're probably big here. I recall seeing the occasional commuter and SuperSix in the lower mainland, I don't think I've ever seen the high pivot Jekyll or anything else somewhat high end/modern in the mtb space in the flesh. Obviously very anecdotal.
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility...
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility. We've already seen this in a somewhat small scale in the automotive space (although not so much in the US Market compared to Europe, so you can simmer down Americans) and I can certainly imagine a world where this happens to something like Trek. Maybe Chinese brands will have no interest in doing so when they can undercut traditional brands by about half, for now, if they want.
On the Cannondale note, maybe it's because I'm Canadian, but other than the occasional review or race result, I have never seen much market share in any of the Canadian markets, and here, the brand has been irrelevant for at least 15 years. Not telling for Ontario and east but perhaps telling for BC - bikes from all over the world show up here so if a brand is huge elsewhere, they're probably big here. I recall seeing the occasional commuter and SuperSix in the lower mainland, I don't think I've ever seen the high pivot Jekyll or anything else somewhat high end/modern in the mtb space in the flesh. Obviously very anecdotal.
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.
The idea that you need a Western brand to “vouch” for a product’s quality feels like it is starting to break down. A lot of our stuff has been made in Asia for a long time, but historically it was still driven by Western product management, with engineering coming mostly from the west, but also from the companies making the stuff themselves.
What seems to have shifted in the last few years is China’s ability to understand the core user and meet them where they actually are. A Sur-Ron might be an example of that going sideways (geo is weird, fit is weird etc), while DJI’s latest work feels like an example of it being done extremely well. The Amflow bikes are broadly well spec’d, well engineered, and, maybe most importantly, not weird. There is no obvious “gotcha” in the product. Its just flat good soup to nuts, and other chinese companies like X-Lab are right there too (check this thing out https://xds.co/products/gt8)
So the big question becomes: what is the value of a brand if the product you are shipping is already genuinely good? I’m not sure it is very much, especially if the consumer base is well educated (bikes) and performance driven (also, bikes).
Moterra SL had quite a few brands on notice at the time of launch with a full size motor and reasonable battery size in what was...
Moterra SL had quite a few brands on notice at the time of launch with a full size motor and reasonable battery size in what was a SL weight bracket. They also offered a unique Flexstay design at the time that wasn't widely used elsewhere.
i sold them 5 years ago, the motera is still fugly. the gravelbike got worse.
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility...
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility. We've already seen this in a somewhat small scale in the automotive space (although not so much in the US Market compared to Europe, so you can simmer down Americans) and I can certainly imagine a world where this happens to something like Trek. Maybe Chinese brands will have no interest in doing so when they can undercut traditional brands by about half, for now, if they want.
On the Cannondale note, maybe it's because I'm Canadian, but other than the occasional review or race result, I have never seen much market share in any of the Canadian markets, and here, the brand has been irrelevant for at least 15 years. Not telling for Ontario and east but perhaps telling for BC - bikes from all over the world show up here so if a brand is huge elsewhere, they're probably big here. I recall seeing the occasional commuter and SuperSix in the lower mainland, I don't think I've ever seen the high pivot Jekyll or anything else somewhat high end/modern in the mtb space in the flesh. Obviously very anecdotal.
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.The idea that you need a Western brand...
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.
The idea that you need a Western brand to “vouch” for a product’s quality feels like it is starting to break down. A lot of our stuff has been made in Asia for a long time, but historically it was still driven by Western product management, with engineering coming mostly from the west, but also from the companies making the stuff themselves.
What seems to have shifted in the last few years is China’s ability to understand the core user and meet them where they actually are. A Sur-Ron might be an example of that going sideways (geo is weird, fit is weird etc), while DJI’s latest work feels like an example of it being done extremely well. The Amflow bikes are broadly well spec’d, well engineered, and, maybe most importantly, not weird. There is no obvious “gotcha” in the product. Its just flat good soup to nuts, and other chinese companies like X-Lab are right there too (check this thing out https://xds.co/products/gt8)
So the big question becomes: what is the value of a brand if the product you are shipping is already genuinely good? I’m not sure it is very much, especially if the consumer base is well educated (bikes) and performance driven (also, bikes).
One benefit of having a US based partner brand I can see as a consumer is warranty support. I usually buy used bikes but if I were to buy a new ebike, having native English speakers process claims would be helpful. Also if they had a facility in the US with some warranty stock, that means that if there are suddenly more protectionist tariffs or complete shutdown on certain Chinese brands entering the country, I could still get a replacement motor instead of being hung out to dry.
An example is the Volvo EX30 (now canceled after 2 years). It had some design problems and pricing issues but if I had the money I would still be more inclined to buy the next Volvo hatchback ev version rather than a BYD (if hypothetically you could get them in the US). Both are fundamentally Chinese cars, just the Volvo has a legacy Swedish automaker's name on it. I would have confidence that Volvo would stand by replacement parts and software support, whereas a Chinese brand by itself trying to break into the US market might just up and leave.
I still hold a soft place in my heart for the Lefty.
From a purely engineering viewpoint, it makes more sense than having two legs, only one of which actually holds you up, and then ironically the rebound, which holds you down, is in the other leg.
Plus the Lefty has the benefits of being inverted.
One benefit of having a US based partner brand I can see as a consumer is warranty support. I usually buy used bikes but if I...
One benefit of having a US based partner brand I can see as a consumer is warranty support. I usually buy used bikes but if I were to buy a new ebike, having native English speakers process claims would be helpful. Also if they had a facility in the US with some warranty stock, that means that if there are suddenly more protectionist tariffs or complete shutdown on certain Chinese brands entering the country, I could still get a replacement motor instead of being hung out to dry.
An example is the Volvo EX30 (now canceled after 2 years). It had some design problems and pricing issues but if I had the money I would still be more inclined to buy the next Volvo hatchback ev version rather than a BYD (if hypothetically you could get them in the US). Both are fundamentally Chinese cars, just the Volvo has a legacy Swedish automaker's name on it. I would have confidence that Volvo would stand by replacement parts and software support, whereas a Chinese brand by itself trying to break into the US market might just up and leave.
This 100% (I mentioned something similar earlier).
Chinese companies will take over WHEN they can also show easily accessible and efficient customer support.
Until that time it is worth buying from a legacy brand that can be reached easily when an issue arises.
The big change I think is just access to bikes at a fraction of the cost especially road and gravel from sites like aliexpress. You can order a carbon frame, fork and seatpost for $400 or alloy for $50 USD. At that price you are not overly concerned with warranty as long as the frame shows up and is of reasonable quality.
I don't know. Perhaps that's the price you pay for a literally half price high performance bike - no warranty and limited aftermarket support. As an enthusiast I've kept up with DTC Chinese stuff for years now, and it seems anecdotally people are left out to dry when it comes to warranty with the exception of very, very few brands. The usual response seems to be something along the lines of "sure, we'll warranty your frame, but you need to send us your old one to our shop in Shenzhen completely arranged by you, and you need to pay shipping for the new one. Shipping costs $500 one way, so you'll have to pay it twice. Good luck with those customs forms. That time when we shipped your frame to you for $50 USD when it was new? Forget about that".
That said, there's pretty glaring differences between what companies like X-Lab are trying to do when compared to the many fly-by-night, message a guy named "Jerry" from an Alibaba sellers (setting middle ground companies like Carbonda and Light Bicycle aside for now). I am very curious how the more legit-looking operations end up handling it, however, I am further curious what the long term impact is. I would not be surprised that if you add in Western expectations of customer, warranty, and aftermarket support, as well as take away any anticompetitive pricing practices that may or may not be ongoing, that we might find ourselves shockingly close to what some brands are selling bikes for at retail right now - except that many of the brands we currently know and love are extinct.
Maybe we, as consumers, will prefer the low price, low support model. Most people's frames won't break, and recent developments in sports betting and polymarkets indicate that we fucking love gambling.
It seems like Avinox, for their part, are going to be offering better support. I'm not really talking about them here, or any "component" manufacturer, as they've had to partner with mainstream brands which involves a level of support inherently.
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility...
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility. We've already seen this in a somewhat small scale in the automotive space (although not so much in the US Market compared to Europe, so you can simmer down Americans) and I can certainly imagine a world where this happens to something like Trek. Maybe Chinese brands will have no interest in doing so when they can undercut traditional brands by about half, for now, if they want.
On the Cannondale note, maybe it's because I'm Canadian, but other than the occasional review or race result, I have never seen much market share in any of the Canadian markets, and here, the brand has been irrelevant for at least 15 years. Not telling for Ontario and east but perhaps telling for BC - bikes from all over the world show up here so if a brand is huge elsewhere, they're probably big here. I recall seeing the occasional commuter and SuperSix in the lower mainland, I don't think I've ever seen the high pivot Jekyll or anything else somewhat high end/modern in the mtb space in the flesh. Obviously very anecdotal.
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.The idea that you need a Western brand...
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.
The idea that you need a Western brand to “vouch” for a product’s quality feels like it is starting to break down. A lot of our stuff has been made in Asia for a long time, but historically it was still driven by Western product management, with engineering coming mostly from the west, but also from the companies making the stuff themselves.
What seems to have shifted in the last few years is China’s ability to understand the core user and meet them where they actually are. A Sur-Ron might be an example of that going sideways (geo is weird, fit is weird etc), while DJI’s latest work feels like an example of it being done extremely well. The Amflow bikes are broadly well spec’d, well engineered, and, maybe most importantly, not weird. There is no obvious “gotcha” in the product. Its just flat good soup to nuts, and other chinese companies like X-Lab are right there too (check this thing out https://xds.co/products/gt8)
So the big question becomes: what is the value of a brand if the product you are shipping is already genuinely good? I’m not sure it is very much, especially if the consumer base is well educated (bikes) and performance driven (also, bikes).
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.
In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still very suspicious and skeptical of chinese brands. Buying products from a chinese OEM or brand still carries the stigma of low quality, ip theft and bad warranty support. The fact that chinese branding is often terrible and generally incompatible with western expectations isn't helping either. It'll take years if not decades until the general cycling public over here changes their mind on this. I don't see anyone over here walking into a bike shop and buying a bike by a chinese brand instead of, say, a Cube, Trek, Scott or Orbea anytime soon. Competitively low pricing as an avenue of generating demand won't really help either, because offers that seem too good to be true over here mainly tend to evoke skepticism. The other avenue of advertisement that chinese brands will probably want to try to explore is influencers. But then again, that's not how you reach the general cycling public over here, but just the already cycling-endemic turbo nerds.
Ironically, if a Chinese OEM would want to be successful on the German/European market, they'd need to build a brand image that evokes as little association with China as possible. Acquiring a legacy western brand might help with that.
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility...
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility. We've already seen this in a somewhat small scale in the automotive space (although not so much in the US Market compared to Europe, so you can simmer down Americans) and I can certainly imagine a world where this happens to something like Trek. Maybe Chinese brands will have no interest in doing so when they can undercut traditional brands by about half, for now, if they want.
On the Cannondale note, maybe it's because I'm Canadian, but other than the occasional review or race result, I have never seen much market share in any of the Canadian markets, and here, the brand has been irrelevant for at least 15 years. Not telling for Ontario and east but perhaps telling for BC - bikes from all over the world show up here so if a brand is huge elsewhere, they're probably big here. I recall seeing the occasional commuter and SuperSix in the lower mainland, I don't think I've ever seen the high pivot Jekyll or anything else somewhat high end/modern in the mtb space in the flesh. Obviously very anecdotal.
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.The idea that you need a Western brand...
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.
The idea that you need a Western brand to “vouch” for a product’s quality feels like it is starting to break down. A lot of our stuff has been made in Asia for a long time, but historically it was still driven by Western product management, with engineering coming mostly from the west, but also from the companies making the stuff themselves.
What seems to have shifted in the last few years is China’s ability to understand the core user and meet them where they actually are. A Sur-Ron might be an example of that going sideways (geo is weird, fit is weird etc), while DJI’s latest work feels like an example of it being done extremely well. The Amflow bikes are broadly well spec’d, well engineered, and, maybe most importantly, not weird. There is no obvious “gotcha” in the product. Its just flat good soup to nuts, and other chinese companies like X-Lab are right there too (check this thing out https://xds.co/products/gt8)
So the big question becomes: what is the value of a brand if the product you are shipping is already genuinely good? I’m not sure it is very much, especially if the consumer base is well educated (bikes) and performance driven (also, bikes).
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still...
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.
In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still very suspicious and skeptical of chinese brands. Buying products from a chinese OEM or brand still carries the stigma of low quality, ip theft and bad warranty support. The fact that chinese branding is often terrible and generally incompatible with western expectations isn't helping either. It'll take years if not decades until the general cycling public over here changes their mind on this. I don't see anyone over here walking into a bike shop and buying a bike by a chinese brand instead of, say, a Cube, Trek, Scott or Orbea anytime soon. Competitively low pricing as an avenue of generating demand won't really help either, because offers that seem too good to be true over here mainly tend to evoke skepticism. The other avenue of advertisement that chinese brands will probably want to try to explore is influencers. But then again, that's not how you reach the general cycling public over here, but just the already cycling-endemic turbo nerds.
Ironically, if a Chinese OEM would want to be successful on the German/European market, they'd need to build a brand image that evokes as little association with China as possible. Acquiring a legacy western brand might help with that.
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility...
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility. We've already seen this in a somewhat small scale in the automotive space (although not so much in the US Market compared to Europe, so you can simmer down Americans) and I can certainly imagine a world where this happens to something like Trek. Maybe Chinese brands will have no interest in doing so when they can undercut traditional brands by about half, for now, if they want.
On the Cannondale note, maybe it's because I'm Canadian, but other than the occasional review or race result, I have never seen much market share in any of the Canadian markets, and here, the brand has been irrelevant for at least 15 years. Not telling for Ontario and east but perhaps telling for BC - bikes from all over the world show up here so if a brand is huge elsewhere, they're probably big here. I recall seeing the occasional commuter and SuperSix in the lower mainland, I don't think I've ever seen the high pivot Jekyll or anything else somewhat high end/modern in the mtb space in the flesh. Obviously very anecdotal.
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.The idea that you need a Western brand...
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.
The idea that you need a Western brand to “vouch” for a product’s quality feels like it is starting to break down. A lot of our stuff has been made in Asia for a long time, but historically it was still driven by Western product management, with engineering coming mostly from the west, but also from the companies making the stuff themselves.
What seems to have shifted in the last few years is China’s ability to understand the core user and meet them where they actually are. A Sur-Ron might be an example of that going sideways (geo is weird, fit is weird etc), while DJI’s latest work feels like an example of it being done extremely well. The Amflow bikes are broadly well spec’d, well engineered, and, maybe most importantly, not weird. There is no obvious “gotcha” in the product. Its just flat good soup to nuts, and other chinese companies like X-Lab are right there too (check this thing out https://xds.co/products/gt8)
So the big question becomes: what is the value of a brand if the product you are shipping is already genuinely good? I’m not sure it is very much, especially if the consumer base is well educated (bikes) and performance driven (also, bikes).
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still...
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.
In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still very suspicious and skeptical of chinese brands. Buying products from a chinese OEM or brand still carries the stigma of low quality, ip theft and bad warranty support. The fact that chinese branding is often terrible and generally incompatible with western expectations isn't helping either. It'll take years if not decades until the general cycling public over here changes their mind on this. I don't see anyone over here walking into a bike shop and buying a bike by a chinese brand instead of, say, a Cube, Trek, Scott or Orbea anytime soon. Competitively low pricing as an avenue of generating demand won't really help either, because offers that seem too good to be true over here mainly tend to evoke skepticism. The other avenue of advertisement that chinese brands will probably want to try to explore is influencers. But then again, that's not how you reach the general cycling public over here, but just the already cycling-endemic turbo nerds.
Ironically, if a Chinese OEM would want to be successful on the German/European market, they'd need to build a brand image that evokes as little association with China as possible. Acquiring a legacy western brand might help with that.
Just to be extra clear, I’m not talking about no-name catalog frames or random bikes off AliExpress. I’m not even really talking about companies like Light Bicycle, though they make great stuff.
What I’m talking about is the Amflow / X-Lab style model. That can work.
But the key is that the bike cannot just be “good for the money.” It has to be genuinely good at any price point. You need real product management, strong engineering, credible distribution, at least some kind of dealer or service network, and a serious effort to show customers that you are going to stand behind the product. Warranty needs to happen regionally, customer service needs to be extra responsive, parts need to be available andhe whole thing has to feel like a real brand, not just a container of cheap bikes showing up from China.
If you can do all of that, I honestly don’t know what you are “buying” when you acquire a second-tier failing Western brand. Remember...you still have to have all of those same capabilities after the acquisition anyway. Distribution, support, warranty, product credibility, customer trust. Point is, if you commit to those things, what are you getting with a brand deal? Especially if the brand is on the rocks. I don't think its much.
Sure, there will be hold outs, but we're broadly already riding stuff from Asia, and most people don't care. They just want the best thing at the best price.
Just to be extra clear, I’m not talking about no-name catalog frames or random bikes off AliExpress. I’m not even really talking about companies like Light...
Just to be extra clear, I’m not talking about no-name catalog frames or random bikes off AliExpress. I’m not even really talking about companies like Light Bicycle, though they make great stuff.
What I’m talking about is the Amflow / X-Lab style model. That can work.
But the key is that the bike cannot just be “good for the money.” It has to be genuinely good at any price point. You need real product management, strong engineering, credible distribution, at least some kind of dealer or service network, and a serious effort to show customers that you are going to stand behind the product. Warranty needs to happen regionally, customer service needs to be extra responsive, parts need to be available andhe whole thing has to feel like a real brand, not just a container of cheap bikes showing up from China.
If you can do all of that, I honestly don’t know what you are “buying” when you acquire a second-tier failing Western brand. Remember...you still have to have all of those same capabilities after the acquisition anyway. Distribution, support, warranty, product credibility, customer trust. Point is, if you commit to those things, what are you getting with a brand deal? Especially if the brand is on the rocks. I don't think its much.
Sure, there will be hold outs, but we're broadly already riding stuff from Asia, and most people don't care. They just want the best thing at the best price.
"Riding stuff from Asia" is a pretty gross over-simplification of what actually happens to bringing a performance bike to market. I'd guess that the secret sauce for western brands is operating in a core environment that drives product excellence, which translates to a superior product to what non-core brands are able to offer. The Amflow frame, for example, is largely panned over by most and the focus of the brand is on the e-system itself. If that frame contained a Bosch of Shimano drive, it wouldn't have made the same impact. Frames like these are often referred to as parts hangers but to your point they sell in volumes because they target non-core consumers. The other thing with selling bikes is there's a number of gatekeepers to address: the distributor, the dealer, the shop floor employee, etc. All surmountable obstacles, but if Specialized is offering huge EP incentives on arguably pretty cool product, that product will then become front of mind on the sales floor and pushed onto the customer.
I can't comment on the road market too much but it's my impression that the gains in road are so marginal, it allows brands with a "90% there" offer to gain market share as long as the pricing reflects that shortcoming.
The natural progression of things is that some of the emerging brands will improve over time and get to a point where they become legitimate competitors, but the road there is anything but easy or quick. Canyon is a good example of this.
"Riding stuff from Asia" is a pretty gross over-simplification of what actually happens to bringing a performance bike to market. I'd guess that the secret sauce...
"Riding stuff from Asia" is a pretty gross over-simplification of what actually happens to bringing a performance bike to market. I'd guess that the secret sauce for western brands is operating in a core environment that drives product excellence, which translates to a superior product to what non-core brands are able to offer. The Amflow frame, for example, is largely panned over by most and the focus of the brand is on the e-system itself. If that frame contained a Bosch of Shimano drive, it wouldn't have made the same impact. Frames like these are often referred to as parts hangers but to your point they sell in volumes because they target non-core consumers. The other thing with selling bikes is there's a number of gatekeepers to address: the distributor, the dealer, the shop floor employee, etc. All surmountable obstacles, but if Specialized is offering huge EP incentives on arguably pretty cool product, that product will then become front of mind on the sales floor and pushed onto the customer.
I can't comment on the road market too much but it's my impression that the gains in road are so marginal, it allows brands with a "90% there" offer to gain market share as long as the pricing reflects that shortcoming.
The natural progression of things is that some of the emerging brands will improve over time and get to a point where they become legitimate competitors, but the road there is anything but easy or quick. Canyon is a good example of this.
Ten years ago, I would have agreed. I don’t anymore.
We’ve talked about this a lot in this thread, but bike design, and engineering more broadly, has become increasingly commoditized. Amflow’s bikes are not good just because the motor is good. They are good because we already know what works. Geometry is free, and there is not much left to protect on the kinematics side. I'm not saying there is no gains left to be had, but draw the line. Rate of change matters. They made a bike that is good for most riders, and if they want to go deeper (bike with more travel, for instance), they most certainly could.
On top of that, their product managers seem to know what they are doing. Go look at the spec sheets, they are strong. They are even putting DH rubber on almost everything except the more budget-oriented builds, which tells me they are paying attention to how people actually ride these bikes (unlike most every other eeb company)
To me, this is the new China. They are no longer getting 90% of the way there and calling it good. At least from what I can see, they are paying very close attention to the user, the category, and the market. DJI does not make a good drone “for China.” DJI makes the best consumer drones in the world, period. BYD is doing a version of the same thing in cars, and I think the same pattern is coming to bikes.
I’m not saying it is fully here yet. I’m saying this is where it is going, and I’d bet on it.
I think you've got rose colored glasses on regarding the Amflow frame. The v1 got a lot of criticism for being very flexy, particularly in the rear end. It had the dubious design choice of a yoke-driven trunnion shock (Vorsprung says in their suspension design manual that if you end up with that design, you should "put down the bong and start again"). Slapping Fox suspension and Transmission drivetrain on it isn't some genius product manager move - almost every bike out there does that these days. The wheels, hubs, bars, and stem are all in-house products and not exactly desirable.
I don't know. Perhaps that's the price you pay for a literally half price high performance bike - no warranty and limited aftermarket support. As an...
I don't know. Perhaps that's the price you pay for a literally half price high performance bike - no warranty and limited aftermarket support. As an enthusiast I've kept up with DTC Chinese stuff for years now, and it seems anecdotally people are left out to dry when it comes to warranty with the exception of very, very few brands. The usual response seems to be something along the lines of "sure, we'll warranty your frame, but you need to send us your old one to our shop in Shenzhen completely arranged by you, and you need to pay shipping for the new one. Shipping costs $500 one way, so you'll have to pay it twice. Good luck with those customs forms. That time when we shipped your frame to you for $50 USD when it was new? Forget about that".
That said, there's pretty glaring differences between what companies like X-Lab are trying to do when compared to the many fly-by-night, message a guy named "Jerry" from an Alibaba sellers (setting middle ground companies like Carbonda and Light Bicycle aside for now). I am very curious how the more legit-looking operations end up handling it, however, I am further curious what the long term impact is. I would not be surprised that if you add in Western expectations of customer, warranty, and aftermarket support, as well as take away any anticompetitive pricing practices that may or may not be ongoing, that we might find ourselves shockingly close to what some brands are selling bikes for at retail right now - except that many of the brands we currently know and love are extinct.
Maybe we, as consumers, will prefer the low price, low support model. Most people's frames won't break, and recent developments in sports betting and polymarkets indicate that we fucking love gambling.
It seems like Avinox, for their part, are going to be offering better support. I'm not really talking about them here, or any "component" manufacturer, as they've had to partner with mainstream brands which involves a level of support inherently.
so far, avinox released a service manual for their motor and you can get spare parts for it from the distributor. that’s already more than bosch et al offer
Ten years ago, I would have agreed. I don’t anymore.We’ve talked about this a lot in this thread, but bike design, and engineering more broadly, has...
Ten years ago, I would have agreed. I don’t anymore.
We’ve talked about this a lot in this thread, but bike design, and engineering more broadly, has become increasingly commoditized. Amflow’s bikes are not good just because the motor is good. They are good because we already know what works. Geometry is free, and there is not much left to protect on the kinematics side. I'm not saying there is no gains left to be had, but draw the line. Rate of change matters. They made a bike that is good for most riders, and if they want to go deeper (bike with more travel, for instance), they most certainly could.
On top of that, their product managers seem to know what they are doing. Go look at the spec sheets, they are strong. They are even putting DH rubber on almost everything except the more budget-oriented builds, which tells me they are paying attention to how people actually ride these bikes (unlike most every other eeb company)
To me, this is the new China. They are no longer getting 90% of the way there and calling it good. At least from what I can see, they are paying very close attention to the user, the category, and the market. DJI does not make a good drone “for China.” DJI makes the best consumer drones in the world, period. BYD is doing a version of the same thing in cars, and I think the same pattern is coming to bikes.
I’m not saying it is fully here yet. I’m saying this is where it is going, and I’d bet on it.
Agreed, the quality of consumer products we are seeing out of China has shifted a lot in the last few years. They went from "good for the low price" to "one of the best, and cheaper than all the competitors" real fast. It seems like the high end Chinese bikes are everywhere on the road and gravel side, and they are now focusing on MTB stuff more.
This could just be me projecting my bias, but it feels like a lot of western consumer goods companies are getting blindsided by china right now, mostly due to the fact that they haven't had to deal with real competition in a long time. Its just been mergers, price collusion, and offshoring for decades. Now something threatening has shown up.
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.The idea that you need a Western brand...
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.
The idea that you need a Western brand to “vouch” for a product’s quality feels like it is starting to break down. A lot of our stuff has been made in Asia for a long time, but historically it was still driven by Western product management, with engineering coming mostly from the west, but also from the companies making the stuff themselves.
What seems to have shifted in the last few years is China’s ability to understand the core user and meet them where they actually are. A Sur-Ron might be an example of that going sideways (geo is weird, fit is weird etc), while DJI’s latest work feels like an example of it being done extremely well. The Amflow bikes are broadly well spec’d, well engineered, and, maybe most importantly, not weird. There is no obvious “gotcha” in the product. Its just flat good soup to nuts, and other chinese companies like X-Lab are right there too (check this thing out https://xds.co/products/gt8)
So the big question becomes: what is the value of a brand if the product you are shipping is already genuinely good? I’m not sure it is very much, especially if the consumer base is well educated (bikes) and performance driven (also, bikes).
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still...
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.
In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still very suspicious and skeptical of chinese brands. Buying products from a chinese OEM or brand still carries the stigma of low quality, ip theft and bad warranty support. The fact that chinese branding is often terrible and generally incompatible with western expectations isn't helping either. It'll take years if not decades until the general cycling public over here changes their mind on this. I don't see anyone over here walking into a bike shop and buying a bike by a chinese brand instead of, say, a Cube, Trek, Scott or Orbea anytime soon. Competitively low pricing as an avenue of generating demand won't really help either, because offers that seem too good to be true over here mainly tend to evoke skepticism. The other avenue of advertisement that chinese brands will probably want to try to explore is influencers. But then again, that's not how you reach the general cycling public over here, but just the already cycling-endemic turbo nerds.
Ironically, if a Chinese OEM would want to be successful on the German/European market, they'd need to build a brand image that evokes as little association with China as possible. Acquiring a legacy western brand might help with that.
Just to be extra clear, I’m not talking about no-name catalog frames or random bikes off AliExpress. I’m not even really talking about companies like Light...
Just to be extra clear, I’m not talking about no-name catalog frames or random bikes off AliExpress. I’m not even really talking about companies like Light Bicycle, though they make great stuff.
What I’m talking about is the Amflow / X-Lab style model. That can work.
But the key is that the bike cannot just be “good for the money.” It has to be genuinely good at any price point. You need real product management, strong engineering, credible distribution, at least some kind of dealer or service network, and a serious effort to show customers that you are going to stand behind the product. Warranty needs to happen regionally, customer service needs to be extra responsive, parts need to be available andhe whole thing has to feel like a real brand, not just a container of cheap bikes showing up from China.
If you can do all of that, I honestly don’t know what you are “buying” when you acquire a second-tier failing Western brand. Remember...you still have to have all of those same capabilities after the acquisition anyway. Distribution, support, warranty, product credibility, customer trust. Point is, if you commit to those things, what are you getting with a brand deal? Especially if the brand is on the rocks. I don't think its much.
Sure, there will be hold outs, but we're broadly already riding stuff from Asia, and most people don't care. They just want the best thing at the best price.
and most people don't care. They just want the best thing at the best price.
Again; and this is where I'm pretty sure your assessment doesn't universally apply. Over here, people sort-of do care and it will take companies like XDS years if not decades to lose the China-stigma - even if they offer a good product at a good price, backed by perfect after-sales support.
You need real product management, strong engineering, credible distribution, at least some kind of dealer or service network, and a serious effort to show customers that you are going to stand behind the product. (...) If you can do all of that, I honestly don’t know what you are “buying” when you acquire a (...) Western brand.
You're buying consumer trust.
Again, the general public over here is very skeptical towards anything that evokes associations with China. So, if some average Thomas, Michael or Günther walks into his local bike shop and sees them carrying a brand called "X-Lab" he's never heard about, he's probably going to be to whip out his smartphone and google the brand. And if google tells him it's a chinese brand, he's very likely buying the comparatively-priced Cube-branded bike instead. Simply because he perceives Cube as a "German" brand and instictively trust them more than he trusts X-Lab (- regardless of the ironic fact that those Cube frames are obviously made in Asia aswell.) It's a mentality thing. Call it subconcious cultural xenophobia if you like, I'm well aware of the hypocrisy and I'm not defending it. But that's just the reality of the situation. Chinese brands will have to overcome massive stigma and prejudice if they'll want to be successful in the German/European markets. And the easiest way around that might be deception (- as in, acquiring a western brand that people already trust).
I think you've got rose colored glasses on regarding the Amflow frame. The v1 got a lot of criticism for being very flexy, particularly in the...
I think you've got rose colored glasses on regarding the Amflow frame. The v1 got a lot of criticism for being very flexy, particularly in the rear end. It had the dubious design choice of a yoke-driven trunnion shock (Vorsprung says in their suspension design manual that if you end up with that design, you should "put down the bong and start again"). Slapping Fox suspension and Transmission drivetrain on it isn't some genius product manager move - almost every bike out there does that these days. The wheels, hubs, bars, and stem are all in-house products and not exactly desirable.
I can't think of one company in the bike industry that, in two years, has launched its first-generation product, sold out, released two new drive units, dropped a new bike, and teased a gearbox. If that's me wearing rose-colored glasses, then so be it.
The pace of iteration, the "rate of change," is what I'm really keyed in on here. I don't think there's much precedent for it in the bike industry, or the outdoor industry as a whole. It feels more like semiconductors in the '90s than anything bikes have done before.
I never claimed the first-gen Amflow was the end-all-be-all of e-bikes. What I'm saying is that it reads like a company watching how the majority of the market actually rides, what those riders want, and what they'll pay for. That's why I'm flagging things like putting DH-casing tires on nearly every build even though it costs weight on the spec sheet. Most PMs won't do it, it makes the bikes heavier (bad) and more expensive (also bad). But its what we all do when we buy one of these things and genuinely makes the bike ride better.
The first-gen bike was a great starting point, and the second-gen bike and spec are a clear step up. They seem far more interested in the Pareto frontier than in building a bike for the uber-mega-bike nerds, meaning us. Hint: Pareto frontier is where great businesses get made, btw. On the yoke-driven trunnion mount, fair callout, though resident suspension engineer @Dave_Camp has taken the other side of that one. And notice that where v1 did draw legit criticism, gen 2 addressed it fast (frame stiffness, that is). That's the rate of change I keep coming back to.
I haven't seen sales data firsthand, but if even half of what I've heard is true, the drive units and bikes are absolutely killing it. It's pretty hard to be Fox's number one customer and sell out if the product isn't moving. And remember the backdrop here, which is the genesis of this whole thread: trying to find an Avinox e-bike right now, let alone a well-priced Amflow, is reminiscent of peak Covid. If you were just to follow Amflow you'd think the entire industry is back on fire again!
Final point. All those no-name parts may bother people in this thread, but most riders can't tell you what brand of wheels, bar, stem, or cranks they're on when it comes to an e-bike. I say that as someone testing an Aventon. I figured I'd end up upgrading all of it, plus the mid-tier Lyrik. But here I am, a bunch of miles in, with zero desire to change a single part until something breaks. Eebs are different, and they are what are selling.
The more people actually go ride eebs, the less desirable it becomes to change anything beyond making the bike fit you better. Even mid-tier suspension works way better when the bike is heavier, at least to me.
The rose colored glasses was directed specifically at the your comments on the Amflow bike itself (not the motor). The first one was by and large a sub-par bike in and of itself. I haven't read any long term reviews of the second gen ones yet but it does look like they've addressed enough of the issues to bring it up to average.
Regarding what ebikers change out on bikes, that must be a regional thing. Around here, the number of guys I see on bone-stock ebikes is tiny, like maybe 1/20. Bars, stems, & grips all get changed out - usually for color coordinated parts. 😂 Brakes get upgraded a lot, but often to something that has anodized color options. If the ebike didn't come with Kashima, that's a must have. Carbon wheels are a must-have because that's another excuse to color match at the hub. What can I say, people in the Bay Area are shallow (myself included).
The rose colored glasses was directed specifically at the your comments on the Amflow bike itself (not the motor). The first one was by and large...
The rose colored glasses was directed specifically at the your comments on the Amflow bike itself (not the motor). The first one was by and large a sub-par bike in and of itself. I haven't read any long term reviews of the second gen ones yet but it does look like they've addressed enough of the issues to bring it up to average.
Regarding what ebikers change out on bikes, that must be a regional thing. Around here, the number of guys I see on bone-stock ebikes is tiny, like maybe 1/20. Bars, stems, & grips all get changed out - usually for color coordinated parts. 😂 Brakes get upgraded a lot, but often to something that has anodized color options. If the ebike didn't come with Kashima, that's a must have. Carbon wheels are a must-have because that's another excuse to color match at the hub. What can I say, people in the Bay Area are shallow (myself included).
Speaking with a manager at one of the highest volume shops in the US, most eBike buyers don't care at all. The ride quality takes a backseat, most of what they care about is getting to the top as quickly as possible while expending the least amount of energy. People at this shop are buying Avinox bikes over the phone without having seen them in person, many are first time bike buyers
Have any of you actually ridden an Amflow bike? I have (gen 1), and the frame rides great for its intended purpose. Its an all mountain bike, not super-enduro. I'd say it rides as good or better than something like the Levo. The flexiness is just fine. About right for a bike of that travel and intended terrain.
Cannondale isn't niche at all. If PON cans it that is a huge loss to cycling as a whole. Cannondale is one of the most storied (and interesting!) brands across road, DH & XC.
Nvidia and most chip designer companies operate based on the litography roadmap that the chipmaker have. We already know that updated 4nm, 3nm and 2nm chip are in various prototype & testing stage with planned rollout for well into 2029. So Nividia is only planning new generation based on the TSMC timeline. We will only know what the actual product spec (how much core, memory size, memory bus width, wattage and various speed) 3-6 months in advance which is usually 1 1/2+ year since the last top sku was launched.
RTX 3090 was launched sept 2020
RTX 4090 was launched sept 2022
RTX 5090 was launched jan 2025
The CPU/GPU industry has been used to Moore's Law even though we are nearing the taper off point.
I would love if someone did a deep dive into pons cycling acquisitions and ultimate closures of several brands. Definitely an interesting story there.
I wonder if maybe it will become a purely gravel/xc brand. That does seem to be their most popular models and doesn’t compete as much with pon’s biggest brands which have less market share in that category. But my guess would be no if the rumor is true.
Wiki page for Pon Holding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pon_Holdings
So from the full portfolio of Cervelo, Focus, Gazelle, Kalkhoff, Union, Santa Cruz, Reserve, Public, BBB, Urban Arrow, Nimbl, Veloretti and the whole Dorel Sports group consisting of Cannondale, Schwinn, GT, Mongoose Caloi and Iron Horse.
Only GT and Union got closed by PON , the others are mostly Dorel legacy brand that were already closed before PON acquired Dorel in 2021.
Nvidia is in a very unique situation where everyone's panic buying its stuff so as not to be "left behind", before they've thought about why they need it or how they're going to use it. It's bizarre.
What I would argue at this point is that waiting for a gearbox ebike is not like waiting for a next gen gpu. A next gen gpu is a generational thing, it was like waiting for Transmission to drop to see what it's like before buying a bike. More or less same old with some tweaks.
Waiting for a gearbox ebike is like it was waiting for PCI Express PC platforms to replace AGP graphics slots as that opened up a whole new paradigm in the PC space - future compatibility essentially up to today, multi GPU setups, etc.).
True, if you need a bike today, buy one. If you have a functioning bike, waiting for the gearboxes makes all the sense I would say. For anyone following bike news I think this pulls a potential purchase from now-ish into the future.
name one stand-out product they released in the last 5 years that has features no one else offers
Moterra SL had quite a few brands on notice at the time of launch with a full size motor and reasonable battery size in what was a SL weight bracket. They also offered a unique Flexstay design at the time that wasn't widely used elsewhere.
I wonder if some of the big cycling brands "survive" by being bought by Chinese capital as a vehicle into the rest of the world/brand credibility. We've already seen this in a somewhat small scale in the automotive space (although not so much in the US Market compared to Europe, so you can simmer down Americans) and I can certainly imagine a world where this happens to something like Trek. Maybe Chinese brands will have no interest in doing so when they can undercut traditional brands by about half, for now, if they want.
On the Cannondale note, maybe it's because I'm Canadian, but other than the occasional review or race result, I have never seen much market share in any of the Canadian markets, and here, the brand has been irrelevant for at least 15 years. Not telling for Ontario and east but perhaps telling for BC - bikes from all over the world show up here so if a brand is huge elsewhere, they're probably big here. I recall seeing the occasional commuter and SuperSix in the lower mainland, I don't think I've ever seen the high pivot Jekyll or anything else somewhat high end/modern in the mtb space in the flesh. Obviously very anecdotal.
I think this is the thing that has changed most over the last 12 to 24 months, maybe longer.
The idea that you need a Western brand to “vouch” for a product’s quality feels like it is starting to break down. A lot of our stuff has been made in Asia for a long time, but historically it was still driven by Western product management, with engineering coming mostly from the west, but also from the companies making the stuff themselves.
What seems to have shifted in the last few years is China’s ability to understand the core user and meet them where they actually are. A Sur-Ron might be an example of that going sideways (geo is weird, fit is weird etc), while DJI’s latest work feels like an example of it being done extremely well. The Amflow bikes are broadly well spec’d, well engineered, and, maybe most importantly, not weird. There is no obvious “gotcha” in the product. Its just flat good soup to nuts, and other chinese companies like X-Lab are right there too (check this thing out https://xds.co/products/gt8)
So the big question becomes: what is the value of a brand if the product you are shipping is already genuinely good? I’m not sure it is very much, especially if the consumer base is well educated (bikes) and performance driven (also, bikes).
i sold them 5 years ago, the motera is still fugly. the gravelbike got worse.
they can die as far as i’m concerned
One benefit of having a US based partner brand I can see as a consumer is warranty support. I usually buy used bikes but if I were to buy a new ebike, having native English speakers process claims would be helpful. Also if they had a facility in the US with some warranty stock, that means that if there are suddenly more protectionist tariffs or complete shutdown on certain Chinese brands entering the country, I could still get a replacement motor instead of being hung out to dry.
An example is the Volvo EX30 (now canceled after 2 years). It had some design problems and pricing issues but if I had the money I would still be more inclined to buy the next Volvo hatchback ev version rather than a BYD (if hypothetically you could get them in the US). Both are fundamentally Chinese cars, just the Volvo has a legacy Swedish automaker's name on it. I would have confidence that Volvo would stand by replacement parts and software support, whereas a Chinese brand by itself trying to break into the US market might just up and leave.
I still hold a soft place in my heart for the Lefty.
From a purely engineering viewpoint, it makes more sense than having two legs, only one of which actually holds you up, and then ironically the rebound, which holds you down, is in the other leg.
Plus the Lefty has the benefits of being inverted.
This 100% (I mentioned something similar earlier).
Chinese companies will take over WHEN they can also show easily accessible and efficient customer support.
Until that time it is worth buying from a legacy brand that can be reached easily when an issue arises.
The big change I think is just access to bikes at a fraction of the cost especially road and gravel from sites like aliexpress. You can order a carbon frame, fork and seatpost for $400 or alloy for $50 USD. At that price you are not overly concerned with warranty as long as the frame shows up and is of reasonable quality.
I don't know. Perhaps that's the price you pay for a literally half price high performance bike - no warranty and limited aftermarket support. As an enthusiast I've kept up with DTC Chinese stuff for years now, and it seems anecdotally people are left out to dry when it comes to warranty with the exception of very, very few brands. The usual response seems to be something along the lines of "sure, we'll warranty your frame, but you need to send us your old one to our shop in Shenzhen completely arranged by you, and you need to pay shipping for the new one. Shipping costs $500 one way, so you'll have to pay it twice. Good luck with those customs forms. That time when we shipped your frame to you for $50 USD when it was new? Forget about that".
That said, there's pretty glaring differences between what companies like X-Lab are trying to do when compared to the many fly-by-night, message a guy named "Jerry" from an Alibaba sellers (setting middle ground companies like Carbonda and Light Bicycle aside for now). I am very curious how the more legit-looking operations end up handling it, however, I am further curious what the long term impact is. I would not be surprised that if you add in Western expectations of customer, warranty, and aftermarket support, as well as take away any anticompetitive pricing practices that may or may not be ongoing, that we might find ourselves shockingly close to what some brands are selling bikes for at retail right now - except that many of the brands we currently know and love are extinct.
Maybe we, as consumers, will prefer the low price, low support model. Most people's frames won't break, and recent developments in sports betting and polymarkets indicate that we fucking love gambling.
It seems like Avinox, for their part, are going to be offering better support. I'm not really talking about them here, or any "component" manufacturer, as they've had to partner with mainstream brands which involves a level of support inherently.
I don't think this is universally true. At least not here in Germany.
In the more conservative markets like Germany (- notoriously conservative), consumers are generally still very suspicious and skeptical of chinese brands. Buying products from a chinese OEM or brand still carries the stigma of low quality, ip theft and bad warranty support. The fact that chinese branding is often terrible and generally incompatible with western expectations isn't helping either. It'll take years if not decades until the general cycling public over here changes their mind on this. I don't see anyone over here walking into a bike shop and buying a bike by a chinese brand instead of, say, a Cube, Trek, Scott or Orbea anytime soon. Competitively low pricing as an avenue of generating demand won't really help either, because offers that seem too good to be true over here mainly tend to evoke skepticism. The other avenue of advertisement that chinese brands will probably want to try to explore is influencers. But then again, that's not how you reach the general cycling public over here, but just the already cycling-endemic turbo nerds.
Ironically, if a Chinese OEM would want to be successful on the German/European market, they'd need to build a brand image that evokes as little association with China as possible. Acquiring a legacy western brand might help with that.
Apropos that: Brompton sells stakes to Decathlon and Chinese Labubu backer
Just to be extra clear, I’m not talking about no-name catalog frames or random bikes off AliExpress. I’m not even really talking about companies like Light Bicycle, though they make great stuff.
What I’m talking about is the Amflow / X-Lab style model. That can work.
But the key is that the bike cannot just be “good for the money.” It has to be genuinely good at any price point. You need real product management, strong engineering, credible distribution, at least some kind of dealer or service network, and a serious effort to show customers that you are going to stand behind the product. Warranty needs to happen regionally, customer service needs to be extra responsive, parts need to be available andhe whole thing has to feel like a real brand, not just a container of cheap bikes showing up from China.
If you can do all of that, I honestly don’t know what you are “buying” when you acquire a second-tier failing Western brand. Remember...you still have to have all of those same capabilities after the acquisition anyway. Distribution, support, warranty, product credibility, customer trust. Point is, if you commit to those things, what are you getting with a brand deal? Especially if the brand is on the rocks. I don't think its much.
Sure, there will be hold outs, but we're broadly already riding stuff from Asia, and most people don't care. They just want the best thing at the best price.
Moterra "SL". It launched 2.5 years ago, in Feb 2024.
I agree with you on the regular Moterra's looks to some degree, but to be fair to them the bar was quite low even as recently as 2024.
"Riding stuff from Asia" is a pretty gross over-simplification of what actually happens to bringing a performance bike to market. I'd guess that the secret sauce for western brands is operating in a core environment that drives product excellence, which translates to a superior product to what non-core brands are able to offer. The Amflow frame, for example, is largely panned over by most and the focus of the brand is on the e-system itself. If that frame contained a Bosch of Shimano drive, it wouldn't have made the same impact. Frames like these are often referred to as parts hangers but to your point they sell in volumes because they target non-core consumers. The other thing with selling bikes is there's a number of gatekeepers to address: the distributor, the dealer, the shop floor employee, etc. All surmountable obstacles, but if Specialized is offering huge EP incentives on arguably pretty cool product, that product will then become front of mind on the sales floor and pushed onto the customer.
I can't comment on the road market too much but it's my impression that the gains in road are so marginal, it allows brands with a "90% there" offer to gain market share as long as the pricing reflects that shortcoming.
The natural progression of things is that some of the emerging brands will improve over time and get to a point where they become legitimate competitors, but the road there is anything but easy or quick. Canyon is a good example of this.
Ten years ago, I would have agreed. I don’t anymore.
We’ve talked about this a lot in this thread, but bike design, and engineering more broadly, has become increasingly commoditized. Amflow’s bikes are not good just because the motor is good. They are good because we already know what works. Geometry is free, and there is not much left to protect on the kinematics side. I'm not saying there is no gains left to be had, but draw the line. Rate of change matters. They made a bike that is good for most riders, and if they want to go deeper (bike with more travel, for instance), they most certainly could.
On top of that, their product managers seem to know what they are doing. Go look at the spec sheets, they are strong. They are even putting DH rubber on almost everything except the more budget-oriented builds, which tells me they are paying attention to how people actually ride these bikes (unlike most every other eeb company)
To me, this is the new China. They are no longer getting 90% of the way there and calling it good. At least from what I can see, they are paying very close attention to the user, the category, and the market. DJI does not make a good drone “for China.” DJI makes the best consumer drones in the world, period. BYD is doing a version of the same thing in cars, and I think the same pattern is coming to bikes.
I’m not saying it is fully here yet. I’m saying this is where it is going, and I’d bet on it.
I think you've got rose colored glasses on regarding the Amflow frame. The v1 got a lot of criticism for being very flexy, particularly in the rear end. It had the dubious design choice of a yoke-driven trunnion shock (Vorsprung says in their suspension design manual that if you end up with that design, you should "put down the bong and start again"). Slapping Fox suspension and Transmission drivetrain on it isn't some genius product manager move - almost every bike out there does that these days. The wheels, hubs, bars, and stem are all in-house products and not exactly desirable.
so far, avinox released a service manual for their motor and you can get spare parts for it from the distributor. that’s already more than bosch et al offer
Agreed, the quality of consumer products we are seeing out of China has shifted a lot in the last few years. They went from "good for the low price" to "one of the best, and cheaper than all the competitors" real fast. It seems like the high end Chinese bikes are everywhere on the road and gravel side, and they are now focusing on MTB stuff more.
This could just be me projecting my bias, but it feels like a lot of western consumer goods companies are getting blindsided by china right now, mostly due to the fact that they haven't had to deal with real competition in a long time. Its just been mergers, price collusion, and offshoring for decades. Now something threatening has shown up.
Again; and this is where I'm pretty sure your assessment doesn't universally apply. Over here, people sort-of do care and it will take companies like XDS years if not decades to lose the China-stigma - even if they offer a good product at a good price, backed by perfect after-sales support.
You're buying consumer trust.
Again, the general public over here is very skeptical towards anything that evokes associations with China. So, if some average Thomas, Michael or Günther walks into his local bike shop and sees them carrying a brand called "X-Lab" he's never heard about, he's probably going to be to whip out his smartphone and google the brand. And if google tells him it's a chinese brand, he's very likely buying the comparatively-priced Cube-branded bike instead. Simply because he perceives Cube as a "German" brand and instictively trust them more than he trusts X-Lab (- regardless of the ironic fact that those Cube frames are obviously made in Asia aswell.) It's a mentality thing. Call it subconcious cultural xenophobia if you like, I'm well aware of the hypocrisy and I'm not defending it. But that's just the reality of the situation. Chinese brands will have to overcome massive stigma and prejudice if they'll want to be successful in the German/European markets. And the easiest way around that might be deception (- as in, acquiring a western brand that people already trust).
I can't think of one company in the bike industry that, in two years, has launched its first-generation product, sold out, released two new drive units, dropped a new bike, and teased a gearbox. If that's me wearing rose-colored glasses, then so be it.
The pace of iteration, the "rate of change," is what I'm really keyed in on here. I don't think there's much precedent for it in the bike industry, or the outdoor industry as a whole. It feels more like semiconductors in the '90s than anything bikes have done before.
I never claimed the first-gen Amflow was the end-all-be-all of e-bikes. What I'm saying is that it reads like a company watching how the majority of the market actually rides, what those riders want, and what they'll pay for. That's why I'm flagging things like putting DH-casing tires on nearly every build even though it costs weight on the spec sheet. Most PMs won't do it, it makes the bikes heavier (bad) and more expensive (also bad). But its what we all do when we buy one of these things and genuinely makes the bike ride better.
The first-gen bike was a great starting point, and the second-gen bike and spec are a clear step up. They seem far more interested in the Pareto frontier than in building a bike for the uber-mega-bike nerds, meaning us. Hint: Pareto frontier is where great businesses get made, btw. On the yoke-driven trunnion mount, fair callout, though resident suspension engineer @Dave_Camp has taken the other side of that one. And notice that where v1 did draw legit criticism, gen 2 addressed it fast (frame stiffness, that is). That's the rate of change I keep coming back to.
I haven't seen sales data firsthand, but if even half of what I've heard is true, the drive units and bikes are absolutely killing it. It's pretty hard to be Fox's number one customer and sell out if the product isn't moving. And remember the backdrop here, which is the genesis of this whole thread: trying to find an Avinox e-bike right now, let alone a well-priced Amflow, is reminiscent of peak Covid. If you were just to follow Amflow you'd think the entire industry is back on fire again!
Final point. All those no-name parts may bother people in this thread, but most riders can't tell you what brand of wheels, bar, stem, or cranks they're on when it comes to an e-bike. I say that as someone testing an Aventon. I figured I'd end up upgrading all of it, plus the mid-tier Lyrik. But here I am, a bunch of miles in, with zero desire to change a single part until something breaks. Eebs are different, and they are what are selling.
The more people actually go ride eebs, the less desirable it becomes to change anything beyond making the bike fit you better. Even mid-tier suspension works way better when the bike is heavier, at least to me.
The rose colored glasses was directed specifically at the your comments on the Amflow bike itself (not the motor). The first one was by and large a sub-par bike in and of itself. I haven't read any long term reviews of the second gen ones yet but it does look like they've addressed enough of the issues to bring it up to average.
Regarding what ebikers change out on bikes, that must be a regional thing. Around here, the number of guys I see on bone-stock ebikes is tiny, like maybe 1/20. Bars, stems, & grips all get changed out - usually for color coordinated parts. 😂 Brakes get upgraded a lot, but often to something that has anodized color options. If the ebike didn't come with Kashima, that's a must have. Carbon wheels are a must-have because that's another excuse to color match at the hub. What can I say, people in the Bay Area are shallow (myself included).
Speaking with a manager at one of the highest volume shops in the US, most eBike buyers don't care at all. The ride quality takes a backseat, most of what they care about is getting to the top as quickly as possible while expending the least amount of energy. People at this shop are buying Avinox bikes over the phone without having seen them in person, many are first time bike buyers
Have any of you actually ridden an Amflow bike? I have (gen 1), and the frame rides great for its intended purpose. Its an all mountain bike, not super-enduro. I'd say it rides as good or better than something like the Levo. The flexiness is just fine. About right for a bike of that travel and intended terrain.
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