The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

The Serious
Posts
24
Joined
6/2/2025
Location
christchurch NZ
10/3/2025 12:46pm Edited Date/Time 10/3/2025 4:09pm
lloyd506 wrote:
Carbon wheel warranty, for what’s it worth I worked for a carbon wheel manufacturer for a bit. The lifetime warranty was built into the price for...

Carbon wheel warranty, for what’s it worth I worked for a carbon wheel manufacturer for a bit. The lifetime warranty was built into the price for some models, and could be purchased as an add on for other models. 
Warranty claims come in from a wide range of users, rim models and breaks.  User could either get a rim and rebuild themselves or send in hub and have new wheel rebuilt, paying for rebuild labour at a reduced rate, nipples and spokes if needed and shipping.  

I don’t recall the number/percentage of claims vs sales, but it wasn’t that high. 

On a side note I don’t know how Reserve managed their warranties. They would send out a new wheel and not ask for the old one, so the user kept a hub. How is that feasible? 

Race Face Send out a complete if you break one of their complete wheels.
I've been running RF for awhile which is arc30's, turbine and the new ERA's. they've been great.

3
10/3/2025 4:05pm
mtbman99 wrote:
I watched a dc rainmaker video about this and  he mentioned that Strava is planning on going public and this may have been a bit of...

I watched a dc rainmaker video about this and  he mentioned that Strava is planning on going public and this may have been a bit of a misguided attempt to shore up their ip.

I’m for keeping this thread open and just changing the name if possible.
 

jonkranked wrote:
i saw about the IPO as well. this is exactly the kind of blunder you want to avoid if you're trying to go public. the more i...

i saw about the IPO as well. this is exactly the kind of blunder you want to avoid if you're trying to go public. 

the more i think about this, the less sense it makes.  

Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.


Sure from the standpoint of consumers the move makes no sense.  It will probably hurt their bottom line in the short/medium term. But if you are trying to convince investors that you have some giant market share of a niche form of social media  the thing to do is to stomp on anyone who looks like competition.


Of course I don’t agree with that from a moral standpoint.  But morals don’t pay the bills when it comes to owning a fragment of something and expecting to make decent money off of it.

3
jonkranked
Posts
1175
Joined
5/5/2016
Location
Norristown, PA US
10/3/2025 5:12pm
mtbman99 wrote:
I watched a dc rainmaker video about this and  he mentioned that Strava is planning on going public and this may have been a bit of...

I watched a dc rainmaker video about this and  he mentioned that Strava is planning on going public and this may have been a bit of a misguided attempt to shore up their ip.

I’m for keeping this thread open and just changing the name if possible.
 

jonkranked wrote:
i saw about the IPO as well. this is exactly the kind of blunder you want to avoid if you're trying to go public. the more i...

i saw about the IPO as well. this is exactly the kind of blunder you want to avoid if you're trying to go public. 

the more i think about this, the less sense it makes.  

Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.Sure from the standpoint of consumers the...

Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.


Sure from the standpoint of consumers the move makes no sense.  It will probably hurt their bottom line in the short/medium term. But if you are trying to convince investors that you have some giant market share of a niche form of social media  the thing to do is to stomp on anyone who looks like competition.


Of course I don’t agree with that from a moral standpoint.  But morals don’t pay the bills when it comes to owning a fragment of something and expecting to make decent money off of it.

I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta". It's unclear to me how this even has a short term play to their benefit. Frankly I'm surprised they were able to find a lawyer to take this on (I know, money) knowing how easily the case against it could be made (took dcrainmaker probably 2 days to research and write that article?). Maybe just getting attention before their IPO so people outside the sports industry know the exist? By taking the risk of having some of their IP protection invalidated?

2
10/3/2025 5:52pm
jonkranked wrote:
i saw about the IPO as well. this is exactly the kind of blunder you want to avoid if you're trying to go public. the more i...

i saw about the IPO as well. this is exactly the kind of blunder you want to avoid if you're trying to go public. 

the more i think about this, the less sense it makes.  

Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.Sure from the standpoint of consumers the...

Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.


Sure from the standpoint of consumers the move makes no sense.  It will probably hurt their bottom line in the short/medium term. But if you are trying to convince investors that you have some giant market share of a niche form of social media  the thing to do is to stomp on anyone who looks like competition.


Of course I don’t agree with that from a moral standpoint.  But morals don’t pay the bills when it comes to owning a fragment of something and expecting to make decent money off of it.

jonkranked wrote:
I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta"...

I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta". It's unclear to me how this even has a short term play to their benefit. Frankly I'm surprised they were able to find a lawyer to take this on (I know, money) knowing how easily the case against it could be made (took dcrainmaker probably 2 days to research and write that article?). Maybe just getting attention before their IPO so people outside the sports industry know the exist? By taking the risk of having some of their IP protection invalidated?

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.

I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have activities.  They don’t want garmin have segments or heat maps.  

I assume the plan is eventually once public you’ll have to pay or see ads.  I don’t even record rides with rare exception despite owning a garmin.  But I turn Strava on nearly everyday to see what other people are upto.  They are trying to prevent me from doing that with someone else.

1
metadave
Posts
1242
Joined
2/15/2016
Location
Revelstoke, BC CA
10/3/2025 6:27pm
Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.Sure from the standpoint of consumers the...

Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.


Sure from the standpoint of consumers the move makes no sense.  It will probably hurt their bottom line in the short/medium term. But if you are trying to convince investors that you have some giant market share of a niche form of social media  the thing to do is to stomp on anyone who looks like competition.


Of course I don’t agree with that from a moral standpoint.  But morals don’t pay the bills when it comes to owning a fragment of something and expecting to make decent money off of it.

jonkranked wrote:
I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta"...

I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta". It's unclear to me how this even has a short term play to their benefit. Frankly I'm surprised they were able to find a lawyer to take this on (I know, money) knowing how easily the case against it could be made (took dcrainmaker probably 2 days to research and write that article?). Maybe just getting attention before their IPO so people outside the sports industry know the exist? By taking the risk of having some of their IP protection invalidated?

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have...

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.

I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have activities.  They don’t want garmin have segments or heat maps.  

I assume the plan is eventually once public you’ll have to pay or see ads.  I don’t even record rides with rare exception despite owning a garmin.  But I turn Strava on nearly everyday to see what other people are upto.  They are trying to prevent me from doing that with someone else.

As soon as I saw the lawsuit and read through the details, i was ready to quit Strava. Garmin gives me more information for free from just buying the device, where Strava has shut down services over the years, including using Bluetooth sensors back in the day. Other than the social side of it, Strava is useless if you already have any devices app, such as Garmin connect. 

Maybe they're trying to hurt Garmin and release their own devices for the run up to an IPO, which is likely too late in the game unless they are absolutely game changing. But if you need to hurt the competition with questionable lawsuits, it's likely that it would not be.

6
mtbman99
Posts
115
Joined
8/30/2016
Location
CA
10/3/2025 8:47pm
Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.Sure from the standpoint of consumers the...

Stop thinking practically and start thinking like a greedy sob and that pretty much sums up the market these days.


Sure from the standpoint of consumers the move makes no sense.  It will probably hurt their bottom line in the short/medium term. But if you are trying to convince investors that you have some giant market share of a niche form of social media  the thing to do is to stomp on anyone who looks like competition.


Of course I don’t agree with that from a moral standpoint.  But morals don’t pay the bills when it comes to owning a fragment of something and expecting to make decent money off of it.

jonkranked wrote:
I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta"...

I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta". It's unclear to me how this even has a short term play to their benefit. Frankly I'm surprised they were able to find a lawyer to take this on (I know, money) knowing how easily the case against it could be made (took dcrainmaker probably 2 days to research and write that article?). Maybe just getting attention before their IPO so people outside the sports industry know the exist? By taking the risk of having some of their IP protection invalidated?

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have...

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.

I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have activities.  They don’t want garmin have segments or heat maps.  

I assume the plan is eventually once public you’ll have to pay or see ads.  I don’t even record rides with rare exception despite owning a garmin.  But I turn Strava on nearly everyday to see what other people are upto.  They are trying to prevent me from doing that with someone else.

I’m not sure but I would think you are in the minority with checking Strava to see what others are up to. I mostly use it to keep track of my stats or to keep track of personal progression/regression (I’m 45 if I can keep up with old me I am doing ok) .  Others can correct me if I’m wrong but that is the common theme I have heard.

I have a Suunto app that also has heat maps….. and gives me all the info Strava would without the segments and route build but I personally don’t need that.

2
boozed
Posts
644
Joined
6/11/2019
Location
AU
10/3/2025 9:45pm Edited Date/Time 10/3/2025 9:45pm
jonkranked wrote:
based on this week's events gonna throw strava here as a wild card, they thought it was a good idea to file a lawsuit based on...

based on this week's events gonna throw strava here as a wild card, they thought it was a good idea to file a lawsuit based on a questionable patent against a company ~25x their size (based on net worth)

Boy, for personal reasons I hope you are right but I'd bet a lot of money this gets settled outside of court. What I really want...

Boy, for personal reasons I hope you are right but I'd bet a lot of money this gets settled outside of court. What I really want to see happen is the "IP" Strava has is invalidated. I still can't believe matching data is somehow something you can patent in the modern era, meanwhile the transformer was something Google just let sit on a shelf. 

Mind blowing. 

I'm certain you know this, but it's possible to patent almost anything.  You don't even have to demonstrate that your idea works – there are plenty of perpetual motion machines and other such nonsense in the patent records.

Software patents, which it seems that Strava is relying on, have been a battleground in the IT world for decades.  Most people who actually write software hate the idea.  The spirit of patent protection is supposed to be to describe an implementation of an idea, not the idea itself.

5
Primoz
Posts
4519
Joined
8/1/2009
Location
SI
10/4/2025 5:19am
jonkranked wrote:
I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta"...

I can't think of any standpoint that this makes sense, other than the very basic "I've got lawyers and I know how to use them, sorta". It's unclear to me how this even has a short term play to their benefit. Frankly I'm surprised they were able to find a lawyer to take this on (I know, money) knowing how easily the case against it could be made (took dcrainmaker probably 2 days to research and write that article?). Maybe just getting attention before their IPO so people outside the sports industry know the exist? By taking the risk of having some of their IP protection invalidated?

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have...

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.

I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have activities.  They don’t want garmin have segments or heat maps.  

I assume the plan is eventually once public you’ll have to pay or see ads.  I don’t even record rides with rare exception despite owning a garmin.  But I turn Strava on nearly everyday to see what other people are upto.  They are trying to prevent me from doing that with someone else.

mtbman99 wrote:
I’m not sure but I would think you are in the minority with checking Strava to see what others are up to. I mostly use it...

I’m not sure but I would think you are in the minority with checking Strava to see what others are up to. I mostly use it to keep track of my stats or to keep track of personal progression/regression (I’m 45 if I can keep up with old me I am doing ok) .  Others can correct me if I’m wrong but that is the common theme I have heard.

I have a Suunto app that also has heat maps….. and gives me all the info Strava would without the segments and route build but I personally don’t need that.

There are tons of people berating me for keeping everything private (not being able to give me kudos), asking me why I don't give kudos and the like. People for sure do check strava like a social network. For some it is the social network. 

3
Brian_Peterson
Posts
1132
Joined
4/26/2011
Location
Canyon Country, CA US
10/4/2025 6:36am
I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have...

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.

I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have activities.  They don’t want garmin have segments or heat maps.  

I assume the plan is eventually once public you’ll have to pay or see ads.  I don’t even record rides with rare exception despite owning a garmin.  But I turn Strava on nearly everyday to see what other people are upto.  They are trying to prevent me from doing that with someone else.

mtbman99 wrote:
I’m not sure but I would think you are in the minority with checking Strava to see what others are up to. I mostly use it...

I’m not sure but I would think you are in the minority with checking Strava to see what others are up to. I mostly use it to keep track of my stats or to keep track of personal progression/regression (I’m 45 if I can keep up with old me I am doing ok) .  Others can correct me if I’m wrong but that is the common theme I have heard.

I have a Suunto app that also has heat maps….. and gives me all the info Strava would without the segments and route build but I personally don’t need that.

Primoz wrote:
There are tons of people berating me for keeping everything private (not being able to give me kudos), asking me why I don't give kudos and...

There are tons of people berating me for keeping everything private (not being able to give me kudos), asking me why I don't give kudos and the like. People for sure do check strava like a social network. For some it is the social network. 

Strava is a social media platform.. The only difference is that you generally have to go do something to post there..

8
AndehM
Posts
599
Joined
5/7/2018
Location
El Granada, CA US
10/4/2025 7:12am
I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have...

I don’t disagree they are likely misguided and their lawyers aren’t helping.

I think it’s more about what they are targeting.  They don’t want trailforks to have activities.  They don’t want garmin have segments or heat maps.  

I assume the plan is eventually once public you’ll have to pay or see ads.  I don’t even record rides with rare exception despite owning a garmin.  But I turn Strava on nearly everyday to see what other people are upto.  They are trying to prevent me from doing that with someone else.

mtbman99 wrote:
I’m not sure but I would think you are in the minority with checking Strava to see what others are up to. I mostly use it...

I’m not sure but I would think you are in the minority with checking Strava to see what others are up to. I mostly use it to keep track of my stats or to keep track of personal progression/regression (I’m 45 if I can keep up with old me I am doing ok) .  Others can correct me if I’m wrong but that is the common theme I have heard.

I have a Suunto app that also has heat maps….. and gives me all the info Strava would without the segments and route build but I personally don’t need that.

Primoz wrote:
There are tons of people berating me for keeping everything private (not being able to give me kudos), asking me why I don't give kudos and...

There are tons of people berating me for keeping everything private (not being able to give me kudos), asking me why I don't give kudos and the like. People for sure do check strava like a social network. For some it is the social network. 

Strava is the only social media that I'm still on.  It's actually pretty shitty as that, but I like seeing where my friends are riding and what the conditions are like.  Every other feature I actually use from it, I could get from Garmin (daily/annual mileage/vert, safety beacon, etc.).  The Beacon was the main reason I started using it so that my wife could see how close I was to being home.

1
PisgahGnar
Posts
372
Joined
6/30/2021
Location
Hendersonville, NC US
10/4/2025 8:56am
Power to the People: Do you all want this thread locked being we've hit the two year mark and a new one created or should it...

Power to the People: Do you all want this thread locked being we've hit the two year mark and a new one created or should it persist? 

How to Vote

Thumbs Up - Lock It
Thumbs Down - Keep It Open

Voting window is through the weekend. 

Hilarious this is now hidden due to downvotes 🤣

16
w4s
Posts
272
Joined
9/2/2009
Location
Verdi, NV US
10/4/2025 6:31pm

I caught the podcast today and thought it was one of the best I've listened to in a while, very informative and I appreciated the discussion.  I'm not in the bike industry but I am a bike geek who works with municipal governments on capital projects and I spend a lot of time analyzing how organizations make decisions and the parallels regardless of industry are undeniable.   I am amazed that anything gets built and I'm always pretty sure shit is going to start to fail at any minute.  😅

10
sweaman22
Posts
67
Joined
1/6/2025
Location
Calgary , AB CA
10/4/2025 8:09pm

Sneaky name change caught me out...... Loved the pod cast. 

11
Brian_Peterson
Posts
1132
Joined
4/26/2011
Location
Canyon Country, CA US
10/6/2025 3:09pm

Listening to the podcast now... But, looks like we have an example of the barbell effect.. KHS shutting down in January..

3
jonkranked
Posts
1175
Joined
5/5/2016
Location
Norristown, PA US
10/6/2025 3:19pm

source on KHS? they're one of those brands that i'm kinda surprised is still around, couldn't tell you the last time i saw one in person.

5
Brian_Peterson
Posts
1132
Joined
4/26/2011
Location
Canyon Country, CA US
10/6/2025 3:31pm
jonkranked wrote:

source on KHS? they're one of those brands that i'm kinda surprised is still around, couldn't tell you the last time i saw one in person.

An industry group I belong to on FB.. Several dealers said they were told this by their reps.. I think they were surviving based on distribution more than bikes.. Plus, the big 3 have done a better job on cheaper bikes. KHS used to be a pretty good value, but not from what I've seen over the past 10 years or so..

6
Jotegr
Posts
339
Joined
6/28/2024
Location
Interior, BC CA
10/6/2025 4:03pm Edited Date/Time 10/6/2025 4:09pm

A bit of a shame as my first bike was a KHS hardtail, but KHS has been wholly irrelevant since like 2012 (or realistically after whenever the last time Binggeli rode rampage), frankly I'm surprised it took this long. I don't know why a dealer would ever sell KHS when there's dozens of  brands that offer way better mid- and high-end stuff, roughly the same if not slightly better entry level stuff, and have any semblance of brand recognition and media presence. Maybe I'm being too harsh, I'm guessing they sold lots of $300 bike things in Sportchek equivalents in the states, right?

 

As a side-note, I just checked the KHS website for the first time in like 4 years, and it's extremely funny that they took a website that looked like it came from 2004 and replaced it with one that looks like it was design in... 2008.

Any word on other weird outliers like Jamis? We've already had some talk on Diamondback... 

Edit: This is crazy. Apparently they released the 7500 in "limited edition black" which as a colour looks like it might be kind of cool (ignoring that the bike probably came out in 2018), but if you image search the thing, there's actually zero pictures other than the SINGLE one the website contains. How did it take until January 2026???

4
Brian_Peterson
Posts
1132
Joined
4/26/2011
Location
Canyon Country, CA US
10/6/2025 4:16pm

KHS does a decent parts distribution business.. They my #2 to order from at 2 of the last 3 shops i worked at.. I think that's what kept them going. The bikes are probably what dragged them down. 

2
Jotegr
Posts
339
Joined
6/28/2024
Location
Interior, BC CA
10/6/2025 4:47pm Edited Date/Time 10/6/2025 4:48pm
KHS does a decent parts distribution business.. They my #2 to order from at 2 of the last 3 shops i worked at.. I think that's...

KHS does a decent parts distribution business.. They my #2 to order from at 2 of the last 3 shops i worked at.. I think that's what kept them going. The bikes are probably what dragged them down. 

That's just something I'd have no idea about as a Canadian... but good Lord I hope the B2B was better than that website. Shame they couldn't see the writing on the wall and cull the bikes before too late, if that really was a big problem for them.

This does raise an interesting topic though that I'd be happy to hear comment from other folks: Distributor companies with in-house bike brands. When I started working in shops it wasn't that uncommon for distributors to have an in-house bike brand for entry- and mid-range stuff. By the time I left, they were almost all gone, except LTP/Norco. I get that it makes a ton of sense for P&A, clothes, etc., to capture that margin, build booking orders, and get more shop floor space, but it's a tough proposition when you're expecting an LBS to sell your brand alongside brands that carry deep product lines at a variety of price points like Trek, Specialized, or Giant. Was the plan to only sell into the third-rate shops moving into markets where all the main players were taken up in exclusivity deals? Those shops... never seemed to do too well where I was around. Who else is left?

2
pinkrobe
Posts
264
Joined
5/16/2015
Location
Revelstoke, BC CA
10/6/2025 5:12pm
Jotegr wrote:
That's just something I'd have no idea about as a Canadian... but good Lord I hope the B2B was better than that website. Shame they couldn't...

That's just something I'd have no idea about as a Canadian... but good Lord I hope the B2B was better than that website. Shame they couldn't see the writing on the wall and cull the bikes before too late, if that really was a big problem for them.

This does raise an interesting topic though that I'd be happy to hear comment from other folks: Distributor companies with in-house bike brands. When I started working in shops it wasn't that uncommon for distributors to have an in-house bike brand for entry- and mid-range stuff. By the time I left, they were almost all gone, except LTP/Norco. I get that it makes a ton of sense for P&A, clothes, etc., to capture that margin, build booking orders, and get more shop floor space, but it's a tough proposition when you're expecting an LBS to sell your brand alongside brands that carry deep product lines at a variety of price points like Trek, Specialized, or Giant. Was the plan to only sell into the third-rate shops moving into markets where all the main players were taken up in exclusivity deals? Those shops... never seemed to do too well where I was around. Who else is left?

I worked in a couple shops that brought in Opus [wholly owned by distributor OGC Canada], and they offered pretty decent value in the urban, road, gravel and kids categories. They didn't update models or frame colours as often as the big brands, so we could sit on inventory for longer without it becoming too stale. I think they were a bigger brand in ON/QC, especially for road. If a shop was carrying Giro/Blackburn/Kryptonite and wanted to hit minimums with some hybrids and kids bikes, they were a solid bet in most urban markets, especially for smaller stores. 

1
10/6/2025 6:51pm

Wait what was the name of this thread before? 

mfoga
Posts
743
Joined
9/21/2015
Location
Moreno Valley, CA US
10/6/2025 7:11pm
1000024327.jpg?VersionId=pVnuO

YT is even selling brand new helmets on FB marketplace its got so bad 🤣

 

2
Brian_Peterson
Posts
1132
Joined
4/26/2011
Location
Canyon Country, CA US
10/6/2025 8:13pm
mfoga wrote:
YT is even selling brand new helmets on FB marketplace its got so bad 🤣 
1000024327.jpg?VersionId=pVnuO

YT is even selling brand new helmets on FB marketplace its got so bad 🤣

 

Looks like a DIY sticker job...

3
sethimus
Posts
870
Joined
9/20/2014
Location
CH
10/6/2025 11:06pm

wasn't KHS just selling rebadged Astro catalogue frames?

2
owl-x
Posts
846
Joined
3/23/2016
Location
Shell Beach, CA US
10/7/2025 12:28am

Can someone make the title of this thread read “Bike-onomics, “bike-o-nomics,” or even “bikeUHnomics?” Just really anything that eliminates that clunky C in the middle? It’s really bad. Thanks in advance. 

4
Primoz
Posts
4519
Joined
8/1/2009
Location
SI
10/7/2025 12:32am

It's just bi-co-nomics... 

2
LePigPen
Posts
964
Joined
12/23/2020
Location
Harbor City, CA US
10/7/2025 12:37am

Wait what was the name of this thread before? 

ya i was ignoring the notifications like 'i never posted in this thread' until i realized it was pinging so much (was literally gonna unfollow) and realized its the old thread.

meh. shoulda made a new one. its gonna get even harder to check this now from the future. this will be a very useful thread one day. to better understand similar scenarios like this that challenge the industry. i can only assume its gonna dilute more and more as time goes on.

i blame Markus for making this thread drag on lol

3
Primoz
Posts
4519
Joined
8/1/2009
Location
SI
10/7/2025 1:16am

When this thread will come in handy again it will be burried and forgotten by the Internet. Just as we discussed already here. People leave industries after painful cycles so they are bound to repeat. 

2
psycln
Posts
4
Joined
1/4/2020
Location
Frisco, TX US
10/7/2025 12:09pm
With the "semi-official" announcement of Guerilla Gravity shutting down on the other site today (yes, I know, Vital had it a month ago), the glut of...

With the "semi-official" announcement of Guerilla Gravity shutting down on the other site today (yes, I know, Vital had it a month ago), the glut of inventory held throughout the industry, slowdown in sales and potential for consumers to be hitting the end of their "credit rope", will we see more companies in the industry hang it up for good?

I've long been skeptical of just how many capital intensive, high risk, low growth companies exist in the "specialty cycling" industry. To add, the number of very intelligent people figuring out how to make two wheels go down (or up) a dirt path better has lead to incredible gains from an enjoyment perspective, but is expensive and coming with fewer and fewer real world returns as we reach a plateau of sorts. 

So what will happen? Will there be room for the boutique manufacturers of _______ out there? Can a small operation make it work in a sea of competitors (with far more money)? 

I predicted 15 years ago we'd see a consolidation, similar to moto, but it never happened. Yes, the big players are doing "better than ever" (in quotes for a reason), but there are arguably just as many small time companies such as Reeb or up and coming companies such as WeAreOne. 

I want to be clear, this is not a hypothesis that the *industry* is in trouble. Its not. It'll be just fine. There are arguably more passionate mountain bikers in mountain biking now than any other point in history, so I feel strongly we'll continue to see the sport thrive. I'm just wondering about the competitors who don't *really* have some kind of moat (which is basically all of them).


I'm frankly not sure, but I do think it'll make for a good discussion. 

Just listened to the 2yr anniversary pod of this post, so many crazy parallels to a PE backed industry I was in at the time you posted: carwash both retail and mfg/services (aka platform) sides are heavily leveraged bc of low interest rates, membership models grew retail millionaires everywhere in the US and a Bain study that said we have room for another 11K full tunnel washes across US alone (as opposed to rollovers or convenience stores)… it was all on fire…(I came in in 2022 to lead people and culture for NCS) our ability to create margins on the chemicals (17-21 different ones across any express tunnel carwash) allowed us to sell equipment and install at very low margins and collect profit on 5yr high margin contracts on chem, parts and services.  Rasor-Rasorbalde model.  Retail getting rolled up by PE at a rapid pace, the two major platforms are PE roll up’s, both out in 2023 w CIMs, massive interest in us and Sonny’s probably 30+ LOIs down to many IOIs and rt as u posted this 3 of the biggest retail players said not gonna do new builds in 2024!! PE saw ghosts, pens down, processes ended, essentially dead $ for 3-5yrs and IRRs in jeopardy!  I’m 50% vested plus my own preferred shares but moved on, maybe it will come back unlikely in the same shape or form but double digit CAGRs are gone and PE now has to find off ramps for these assets bc funds are near their term.  Just thought u might find interesting compare so I shared.  The money guys are just playing Draft Kings but w OPM so its place the bets inside a fund all you need is what net <15% IRR to win, affords you 40-50% as write offs and the rest as moderate 1-2x wins? What a scam!

6
mfoga
Posts
743
Joined
9/21/2015
Location
Moreno Valley, CA US
10/7/2025 5:09pm
mfoga wrote:
YT is even selling brand new helmets on FB marketplace its got so bad 🤣 
1000024327.jpg?VersionId=pVnuO

YT is even selling brand new helmets on FB marketplace its got so bad 🤣

 

Looks like a DIY sticker job...

Yeah but was still funny it came up when it did 

1
2

Post a reply to: The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

The Latest