The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

smelly
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5/21/2025 7:20pm

Has VC or private equity worked well for any company in this industry? 
Glad to see Revel come back. 

1
5/21/2025 7:59pm
smelly wrote:

Has VC or private equity worked well for any company in this industry? 
Glad to see Revel come back. 

The problem with VC or PE is that then tend to jump in when things are good.. But, they don't understand the peaks and valleys that  are the norm in the bike biz.. Really,  the numbers don't make sense unless you are passionate about bikes.. It's like at my work.. The big bosses love to come down when the machines are up and running and talk about what a great job "we" are doing... But, when my boss and I are figuring what needs to happen to get these machines going and keep them going, they aren't hanging out...

2
5/22/2025 1:58am
BigChungus wrote:
Stif Cycles in the UK have announced they are going under and shall close in September, owned by PON and make their own branded hardtails, but...

Stif Cycles in the UK have announced they are going under and shall close in September, owned by PON and make their own branded hardtails, but mainly a Santa Cruz dealer 

dangit, their steel frames are beautiful. RIP

dolface wrote:

That sucks, they also supported Nina Hoffman before she signed w/ The Syndicate...

Pretty sure they still sponsor the Syndicate too, at least their logo is on the frames and kit this year 

2
pamtbr
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5/22/2025 10:38am
smelly wrote:

Has VC or private equity worked well for any company in this industry? 
Glad to see Revel come back. 

Maybe another thread, but anyone care to start compiling a list of successes and failures? 

1
1
AndehM
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Fantasy
5/22/2025 10:43am

dangit, their steel frames are beautiful. RIP

dolface wrote:

That sucks, they also supported Nina Hoffman before she signed w/ The Syndicate...

BigChungus wrote:

Pretty sure they still sponsor the Syndicate too, at least their logo is on the frames and kit this year 

I think they only sponsor Nina.

1
1
Shinook
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5/22/2025 12:09pm Edited Date/Time 5/22/2025 12:10pm
smelly wrote:

Has VC or private equity worked well for any company in this industry? 
Glad to see Revel come back. 

pamtbr wrote:

Maybe another thread, but anyone care to start compiling a list of successes and failures? 

AFAIK there is no list of who is funding who, sometimes investment firms will have their portfolio available online, but it would be tricky to track down who is providing funding to who. We only know the failures because they are explicitly called out. Without a central data source, it'd be really difficult.

4
5/22/2025 1:45pm

I was thinking about the whole VC and PE thing.. Maybe Jeff has an idea about this.. Some of these firms may have enough profit from successful investments that a failure that isn't too large potentially helps come tax time? I hear this is a big thing in commercial real estate.. They would rather leave a building vacant and build a new one as opposed to renting an existing building at a more attractive price since it shows as a loss on paper..

2
jeff.brines
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5/23/2025 6:55am Edited Date/Time 5/23/2025 9:18am
I was thinking about the whole VC and PE thing.. Maybe Jeff has an idea about this.. Some of these firms may have enough profit from...

I was thinking about the whole VC and PE thing.. Maybe Jeff has an idea about this.. Some of these firms may have enough profit from successful investments that a failure that isn't too large potentially helps come tax time? I hear this is a big thing in commercial real estate.. They would rather leave a building vacant and build a new one as opposed to renting an existing building at a more attractive price since it shows as a loss on paper..

Good question. Slight tangent, but I’ve been toying with the idea of launching a monthly podcast where I unpack stuff like this. I didn’t think people would care, but when you break it down in a way that maps to our world, it actually seems to land. And honestly, it’s way easier for me to riff on this in audio form than hammer it out on a keyboard.

Anyway, I read through the last few pages of comments, good to see Revel back from the dead, by the way. I’ll probably share more thoughts on that later (maybe). For now, here’s my take on your question and some of the recent discussion:

Venture Capital vs Private Equity:
We keep lumping these together, but it's kind of like putting together DH and enduro (or maybe trail) bikes. Close, but those in the know see them as entirely different. Both PE/VC involves allocating capital from LPs (limited partners...investors) into assets with the goal of beating a benchmark (like the S&P 500). Both typically charge 2% management fees and take 20% of the upside. And both are “private funds,” meaning you can’t just buy in through your brokerage account, only accredited investors can even get pitched.

These funds raise money, lock it up for 10+ years, and aim to exit their investments at a higher valuation. That exit is often the hardest part (edit; its all hard) Usually it’s through M&A or IPO. PE leans M&A, VC chases IPOs but not always; plenty of the big PE players aim for IPO, too. Also worth noting, PE has a much larger set of investable assets, literally everything from single family homes and car washes all the way to mature software companies and medical device. As a result, private equity space is a lot larger than venture capital (8-10x bigger)

Now the core difference: risk and stage.
VC is the “checkers or wreckers” of capital allocation. You’re betting on early-stage, high-risk, high-reward companies. Think a $1M check turning into $1B. That’s how Benchmark turned $6.7M into $5B on eBay. I’ve also been on the other side we raised $7M and went to $0. Full crash out and the VCs that backed us encouraged us to swing for the fences or go to 0. It sucked, but that’s the game.

PE is more like enduro racing; less wild, more consistent. They buy established companies, often use leverage (LBOs), and need most of the portfolio to at least perform. One or two blowups can tank the whole fund. It’s built on operational improvement and financial engineering, not breakout growth.

In bikes:
Private equity’s been around forever. Fox Factory was PE-backed before IPO. RockShox was taken private. SRAM had a big PE infusion in the 2010s. You won’t hear this from bike media, but it’s been happening. Strategic players like PON or Pierer Group also act like PE just under a different name with a different time horizon. (I'm sure there is a lot more, this is just off the top of my head)

VC in bikes? Almost never. And that’s what triggered this thread. For VC to make sense here, you’d need a generational team, an airtight moat, and a clear path to displace the likes of SRAM, Shimano, or Trek -- fast. But the capex requirements are brutal. Compared to software or even biotech? No contest. VC’s not touching this space unless money is free again.

There's more to say...about the history of these asset types, and the upside and downside of private capital in the industry. But like most things: it’s complicated...and this post is already long enough.

Cheers!
 

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Kusa
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5/23/2025 2:43pm

World of investment companies is crazy. If you follow outdoors you might know swiss ski brand called Faction Skis. They heavily sponsored Candide Thovex and his famous youtube videos. Long story short, the founder just spoked how through investments he was kicked out of his own company by board decision. At the time of leaving, he owned shares valued at 1.5M usd. The investment company destroyed Faction Skis so badly over the years that the value of shares went so down that from 1.5M he is now looking at just absolutely mind blowing $6k… 

2
Buckets Up
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5/23/2025 4:11pm
Kusa wrote:
World of investment companies is crazy. If you follow outdoors you might know swiss ski brand called Faction Skis. They heavily sponsored Candide Thovex and his...

World of investment companies is crazy. If you follow outdoors you might know swiss ski brand called Faction Skis. They heavily sponsored Candide Thovex and his famous youtube videos. Long story short, the founder just spoked how through investments he was kicked out of his own company by board decision. At the time of leaving, he owned shares valued at 1.5M usd. The investment company destroyed Faction Skis so badly over the years that the value of shares went so down that from 1.5M he is now looking at just absolutely mind blowing $6k… 

Do you have a link to an article or podcast on this? I’d be super interested to learn more.

Are you sure it wasn’t Core-upt, another ski brand that sponsored Candide (and a number of other big names) and then imploded?

I follow snow sports closely and haven’t heard anything about a shake-up that big at Faction. They also still have a big presence and sponsor Eileen Gu, who I'm sure doesn’t come cheap.

1
5/23/2025 5:04pm

VC and PE gobbling up companies really does lead to the "enshittening" of everything. However, some companies get new life breathed into them, but they are generally boring entities like white-collar gigs or a chain of barber shops... Like @Brian_Peterson said, they just don't understand this industry and had $s in their eyes during 21-22 looking at the bike industry. However, as much as I hate VC and PE, they know how to game the system and will most likely write-off Revel or any other company they lose or sell back, so they don't really lose much. 

The good news here is that they did not pull a Bain Capital move and dissect and bleed the company dry from the inside with their appointed controlled-demolition team. I've not ridden a Revel, but I appreciate they're presence and wish them well under the original owner.

3
ballz
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5/23/2025 5:10pm

Fuck Bain Capital!

Kusa
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5/23/2025 9:26pm
Kusa wrote:
World of investment companies is crazy. If you follow outdoors you might know swiss ski brand called Faction Skis. They heavily sponsored Candide Thovex and his...

World of investment companies is crazy. If you follow outdoors you might know swiss ski brand called Faction Skis. They heavily sponsored Candide Thovex and his famous youtube videos. Long story short, the founder just spoked how through investments he was kicked out of his own company by board decision. At the time of leaving, he owned shares valued at 1.5M usd. The investment company destroyed Faction Skis so badly over the years that the value of shares went so down that from 1.5M he is now looking at just absolutely mind blowing $6k… 

Buckets Up wrote:
Do you have a link to an article or podcast on this? I’d be super interested to learn more.Are you sure it wasn’t Core-upt, another ski...

Do you have a link to an article or podcast on this? I’d be super interested to learn more.

Are you sure it wasn’t Core-upt, another ski brand that sponsored Candide (and a number of other big names) and then imploded?

I follow snow sports closely and haven’t heard anything about a shake-up that big at Faction. They also still have a big presence and sponsor Eileen Gu, who I'm sure doesn’t come cheap.

Dude is sharing the story(s) on Linkedin. Search for Tony McWilliam, Verbier.

3
Digit Bikes
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5/24/2025 12:31am
ballz wrote:

Fuck Bain Capital!

Because of GT? Have Bain been involved in other bike companies?

ballz
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5/24/2025 5:13am
ballz wrote:

Fuck Bain Capital!

Because of GT? Have Bain been involved in other bike companies?

My personal career experience, I worked in a tech startup where BC was a major investor. Fuck them.

1
smelly
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5/26/2025 2:44am Edited Date/Time 5/26/2025 4:22am
Good question. Slight tangent, but I’ve been toying with the idea of launching a monthly podcast where I unpack stuff like this. I didn’t think people...

Good question. Slight tangent, but I’ve been toying with the idea of launching a monthly podcast where I unpack stuff like this. I didn’t think people would care, but when you break it down in a way that maps to our world, it actually seems to land. And honestly, it’s way easier for me to riff on this in audio form than hammer it out on a keyboard.

Anyway, I read through the last few pages of comments, good to see Revel back from the dead, by the way. I’ll probably share more thoughts on that later (maybe). For now, here’s my take on your question and some of the recent discussion:

Venture Capital vs Private Equity:
We keep lumping these together, but it's kind of like putting together DH and enduro (or maybe trail) bikes. Close, but those in the know see them as entirely different. Both PE/VC involves allocating capital from LPs (limited partners...investors) into assets with the goal of beating a benchmark (like the S&P 500). Both typically charge 2% management fees and take 20% of the upside. And both are “private funds,” meaning you can’t just buy in through your brokerage account, only accredited investors can even get pitched.

These funds raise money, lock it up for 10+ years, and aim to exit their investments at a higher valuation. That exit is often the hardest part (edit; its all hard) Usually it’s through M&A or IPO. PE leans M&A, VC chases IPOs but not always; plenty of the big PE players aim for IPO, too. Also worth noting, PE has a much larger set of investable assets, literally everything from single family homes and car washes all the way to mature software companies and medical device. As a result, private equity space is a lot larger than venture capital (8-10x bigger)

Now the core difference: risk and stage.
VC is the “checkers or wreckers” of capital allocation. You’re betting on early-stage, high-risk, high-reward companies. Think a $1M check turning into $1B. That’s how Benchmark turned $6.7M into $5B on eBay. I’ve also been on the other side we raised $7M and went to $0. Full crash out and the VCs that backed us encouraged us to swing for the fences or go to 0. It sucked, but that’s the game.

PE is more like enduro racing; less wild, more consistent. They buy established companies, often use leverage (LBOs), and need most of the portfolio to at least perform. One or two blowups can tank the whole fund. It’s built on operational improvement and financial engineering, not breakout growth.

In bikes:
Private equity’s been around forever. Fox Factory was PE-backed before IPO. RockShox was taken private. SRAM had a big PE infusion in the 2010s. You won’t hear this from bike media, but it’s been happening. Strategic players like PON or Pierer Group also act like PE just under a different name with a different time horizon. (I'm sure there is a lot more, this is just off the top of my head)

VC in bikes? Almost never. And that’s what triggered this thread. For VC to make sense here, you’d need a generational team, an airtight moat, and a clear path to displace the likes of SRAM, Shimano, or Trek -- fast. But the capex requirements are brutal. Compared to software or even biotech? No contest. VC’s not touching this space unless money is free again.

There's more to say...about the history of these asset types, and the upside and downside of private capital in the industry. But like most things: it’s complicated...and this post is already long enough.

Cheers!
 

Great insight as always, thanks! 
Does private equity do a bunch of beneficial stuff in the bike world and we just hear about all the botch jobs?

Though I reckon the botch is sometimes coming from both sides. Did Revel and GG get ruined by PE, but or did they have dreams of being bigger than they could be? Perhaps part of the issue is the idea that anything can grow as big as it wants. Sometimes you’re an oak seedling and the right infusion of resources will make you huge and grand.  Sometimes you’re a shrub and need to accept you’re a shrub; no amount of fertilizer will turn you into a tree. 
And size says nothing about health. A shrub can be healthier and more prosperous than a tree, and vice versa. 

5
5/26/2025 4:03am

In my personal experience, Private equity comes with an influx of cash and a timeline of selling the company in 15-20-25 years at a profit usually by scaling up the business quickly that ideally it has doubled in size by the time the private equity is looking to sell. The issue with that for most bike companies is that means a ton of logistic and marketing to get anywhere near the level of specialized/trek/giant, setting up sales and after sale teams around the world while the established players will try to fight back with sales, dealers agreement and new products in most of the time saturated market.

So instead of targeting a yearly 2-3% sales increase with safety nets for flat years, you are now looking at minimum yearly 5% sales increase for the next 20 years. 

3
5/26/2025 7:48am
smelly wrote:
Great insight as always, thanks! Does private equity do a bunch of beneficial stuff in the bike world and we just hear about all the botch jobs?Though...

Great insight as always, thanks! 
Does private equity do a bunch of beneficial stuff in the bike world and we just hear about all the botch jobs?

Though I reckon the botch is sometimes coming from both sides. Did Revel and GG get ruined by PE, but or did they have dreams of being bigger than they could be? Perhaps part of the issue is the idea that anything can grow as big as it wants. Sometimes you’re an oak seedling and the right infusion of resources will make you huge and grand.  Sometimes you’re a shrub and need to accept you’re a shrub; no amount of fertilizer will turn you into a tree. 
And size says nothing about health. A shrub can be healthier and more prosperous than a tree, and vice versa. 

Adam touches on this during the podcast listed earlier in the thread..  He went with a group that he thought had good intentions that would help grow Revel beyond what he could.. A good listen..

3
1
ballz
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5/27/2025 8:27am

"help grow X beyond what he could" is the mantra that leads to enshittification and business death. I am quite happy that some great small business like Hadley never felt the need to "help grow beyond what they could".

5
5/27/2025 8:34am
ballz wrote:
"help grow X beyond what he could" is the mantra that leads to enshittification and business death. I am quite happy that some great small business...

"help grow X beyond what he could" is the mantra that leads to enshittification and business death. I am quite happy that some great small business like Hadley never felt the need to "help grow beyond what they could".

Perhaps is whar Adam and Revel needs is a partner with money who shares a similar passion for bikes...

1
pamtbr
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5/30/2025 6:49am

Not that Canyon is going anywhere but interested in thoughts from Jeff and others on https://www.bicycleretailer.com/international/2025/05/29/canyon-sales-inch-2024-gbl-depreciates-value-investment

"GBL reduced the value of the Canyon shares it owns from 460 million euros at the end of 2023 to 261 million at the end of 2024."

4
Masjo
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6/2/2025 7:08pm

I can't remember if this was brought up here or on Escape Collective, but the Canyon - Amazon deal is supposed to be focused on entry level bikes. I don't know if there was a specific cut off (maybe $3000?), but I imagine AXS builds are not going to be sold on Amazon.

2
6/2/2025 8:07pm

I just looked... I was under the impression that it would be more entry level bikes.. But, if you are a consumer direct brand, don't you want to be where most of the consumers are?

 

Screenshot 20250602 200525 Amazon Shopping
2
HexonJuan
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6/3/2025 6:24am
I just looked... I was under the impression that it would be more entry level bikes.. But, if you are a consumer direct brand, don't you...

I just looked... I was under the impression that it would be more entry level bikes.. But, if you are a consumer direct brand, don't you want to be where most of the consumers are?

 

Screenshot 20250602 200525 Amazon Shopping

As they're a DTC brand, I see this from a simple perspective: Amazon has the ability to finance purchases better than Canyon does. Couple that with free 2 day shipping and you have a bit of a winner for the consumer. Full disclosure, I haven't poked around on Canyon's site to see what they offer for financing and shipping so there's a distinct possibility I may sound like a rube.

5
6/3/2025 7:11am
HexonJuan wrote:
As they're a DTC brand, I see this from a simple perspective: Amazon has the ability to finance purchases better than Canyon does. Couple that with...

As they're a DTC brand, I see this from a simple perspective: Amazon has the ability to finance purchases better than Canyon does. Couple that with free 2 day shipping and you have a bit of a winner for the consumer. Full disclosure, I haven't poked around on Canyon's site to see what they offer for financing and shipping so there's a distinct possibility I may sound like a rube.

I did do a little more looking.. I'm seeing bikes with limited sizes available.. Maybe trying to move some slow movers via Amazon? 

4
az2au
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Fantasy
6/3/2025 7:31am

I did do a little more looking.. I'm seeing bikes with limited sizes available.. Maybe trying to move some slow movers via Amazon? 

I think the press release touted minimal models and a strategy like you're noting but when this first came out a few weeks ago I looked around out of interest and virtually everything was available in all sizes.  I then heard one podcast (might have been Geek Warning) say the same thing.  I honestly hadn't looked since so not sure if they just pulled stuff or had some success and are now low on some sizes in general.  

2
6/3/2025 8:37am
az2au wrote:
I think the press release touted minimal models and a strategy like you're noting but when this first came out a few weeks ago I looked...

I think the press release touted minimal models and a strategy like you're noting but when this first came out a few weeks ago I looked around out of interest and virtually everything was available in all sizes.  I then heard one podcast (might have been Geek Warning) say the same thing.  I honestly hadn't looked since so not sure if they just pulled stuff or had some success and are now low on some sizes in general.  

I didn't look much at first... But, for a company like Canyon, it makes sense... More eyeballs that may not have looked at them before and since they are already set up with warehousing and shipping capacity, they aren't getting hit with a ton of fees from Amazon.. And, if you work at a shop, it's most likely the best Amazon build that you could hope for..

3
6/3/2025 4:12pm

Searched canyon bike on Amazon.ca looks like a great deal if you want to blow $9800 on a fat bike with deore. IMG 2537

4
Primoz
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6/4/2025 12:19am

Is that USD or CAD? Tongue

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