The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

Is Deviate in trouble? No e-bikes have been received by shops, thought they were scheduled for early November? Everything on the website is “sold out” even the spare parts. I don’t like the look of it. 

Thoughts? 

i get a popup that says:

Customer Notice: The store is temporarily unavailable while we update a few things.
We’ll be back online by Monday 8th December. Thanks for bearing with us.
If you can't wait please email us on info@deviatecycles.com

Updating the website for a week while there’s a Black Friday sale on… strange. At least it sounds I’ll be able to buy my hanger eventually 🤣

better than having a black friday sellout when things aren't in order 😉 #YTthings

Deviate is indeed in trouble; https://www.pinkbike.com/news/insolvent-deviate-cycles-bought-back-by-c…

Man this sucks…

I bought a Deviate because they were the only brand other than Santa Cruz who would honour a warranty if a bike was painted aftermarket by a competent person. So much for that. 

I recall Deviate was looking for private investors via a sort of crowdfunding model... last year? Hope not too many are losing their shirt.

Deviate in the comments claiming they'll be back up in a matter of days (with a new name?!). 

E-- extrapolated new "company" to mean "name" but still ???

Really loved the Claymore I got to ride at the Vital Enduro Test Sessions in 2023. Super impressive bike, and I hope Ben and the rest of the team at Deviate are able to right the ship. Good luck!!!

So that begs the questions:

- what did Deviate do wrong?

- what makes anyone think that the new (not really) company will be able to do things right?

1. Was a bike company in 2025

2. Discharge debt and wait for it to not be 2025 anymore

Don’t know about you guys but 2026 seems like it will be worse for the general population…. 

only thing 2026 seems like it will be good for is...

This thread.

EDIT: so i saw a conversation pop up on reddit, and I thought it was pretty compelling although could be waved away by obvious timing buuut

I'm seeing a lot of sold out everywhere I look, even a bit before black friday. And DEF now after black friday. So the question is...

Are we on the 'other side' of the inventory dump? In regards to brands setting up these orders at least a year in advance if not more. And like brands still selling through the same models/colors that were available through covid.

So are we going to see slimmer inventory in 2026? Are things going to sell out as orders slow down (and tariffs hold things hostage)? Are we going to see a touch of inventory drought for the first time since the great covid sell-a-thon? Ending the rein of inventory bloat and liquidation discounts...

I will have to admit to not having my hopes set very high for the coming year.

To paraphrase a recent Economist on npr.  The wealthy are spending the same or more but the lower and middle class are spending much less.  And in a consumer driven economy the question is how long until those lack of sales start to trickle up the system.

if you have low expectations, you'll never be disappointed!

Guys, don't worry, Alan Greenspan told me that markets always work things out and they arrive at optimal output, consumption, and employment on their own. We live in the best of all possible worlds!

🤣 It always works out for the 1%…

The rest of us are SOL. 

Here are some numbered bikeconomics from Deviate article on pb. If we assume 5k per bike, a small company like Deviate has to sell about 600 per year to break even

Piss Jug economy. The middle class is trickling down into their saving vessels with the hope of eventually tossing it all at a house someday. 

I think $5k is generous. You gotta take the into consideration your profit margin on each bike for the net cash impact to your business. 

Privateer bikes have very limited selection on their website.  They usually have a new batch delivery date on their sold out bikes but nothing right now. Hopefully launching a new gen in the new year and not a financial issue.

"Those retail numbers are growing more dependent on a smaller group of consumers. The top 10% of earners in the U.S. accounted for nearly 50% of spending in the second quarter, the highest level it’s been since this data first started being collected in 1989, according to Moody’s Analytics."

Hi,

Not to keep beating the dead and reanimated horse of YT but I found this interesting. So, you all might find it interesting. When the news broke of YT USA selling all their inventory to Jenson I was very curious. Who doesn’t love a great deal? Through the magic of questionable data sources and unverified LLM code generation I did some analysis of what was for sale. I heard on the internet they had something like 600+ bikes come in from the distributor?

Preamble:

I have no relationship with Jenson, YT, YT USA or the bike industry as a whole. I just love a deal. Jenson doesn’t surface SKU counts (except in near sellout enticements) thus we only have product variants over time. Further the data sources I used are incomplete and have bad data. I feel the data over all is directionally correct. I would expect there to be inconsistencies in the details (for instance SKUs selling out when there is still stock, or price going to $0 and then back). 

Definitions:

Model - in this case is something like a Decoy MX which is a very different bike then a Decoy SN 29 or even a Decoy SN MX.
Build Level - this what “Core”, or trim level” the bike is. From my understanding all bikes in the same “Core level” or “Build level” have the same components.
SKU - This is the unique combination of, Model, build level, color and size. This is the most granular level of data we have. Everyone defines SKU slightly differently but we are defining it as “the specific thing you can buy”.

Overview:

There were 226 SKU variants across 13 model families (Capra 29, Jeffsy MX etc..). Model years ranged back to 2022 in some cases. Jenson seemed to add models to their website oldest to newest. Jenson also played around with pricing, oftentimes raising the price most likely in relation to demand (I have no way to confirm this).

Data (Sorry, hard to format for this forum):

product_family        year   build_level   distinct_skus   min_price    max_price    avg_price    price_std   price_changes   price_range
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jeffsy 29             2025   3             19              $2,879.00    $3,444.00    $3,159.57    $172.77     96              $565.00
Capra MX              2025   2             13              $2,099.00    $2,899.00    $2,521.22    $387.75     36              $800.00
Decoy SN MX           2025   2             11              $4,059.00    $4,419.00    $4,259.00    $184.07     18              $360.00
Jeffsy 29             2025   2             11              $2,599.00    $2,699.00    $2,605.82    $25.50      44              $100.00
Capra 29              2025   2             10              $1,799.00    $2,699.00    $2,408.38    $255.72     32              $900.00
Capra 29              2025   3             10              $2,799.00    $3,359.00    $3,184.14    $181.91     35              $560.00
Decoy SN MX           2024   3             10              $4,099.50    $4,299.00    $4,259.10    $82.60      15              $199.50
Decoy SN MX           2024   4             8               $4,649.50    $4,999.00    $4,903.68    $163.25     11              $349.50
Decoy SN MX           2025   4             8               $5,299.00    $5,299.00    $5,299.00    -           6               -
Jeffsy 29             2025   4             8               $4,399.00    $4,399.00    $4,399.00    -           10              -
Capra MX              2025   3             6               $2,599.00    $2,799.00    $2,752.85    $87.71      13              $200.00
Decoy MX              2025   3             6               $6,599.00    $6,599.00    $6,599.00    -           4               -
Decoy MX              2025   5             6               $5,299.00    $5,599.00    $5,524.00    $150.00     4               $300.00
Decoy SN 29           2025   2             6               $3,499.00    $3,899.00    $3,699.00    $219.09     6               $400.00
Decoy SN 29           2025   4             6               $4,799.00    $5,899.00    $5,556.14    $458.62     14              $1,100.00
Izzo 29               2025   3             6               $3,599.00    $3,599.00    $3,599.00    -           24              -
Szepter 700c          2024   2             6               $1,754.00    $1,754.00    $1,754.00    -           21              -
Capra MX              2025   1             5               $2,099.00    $2,099.00    $2,099.00    -           12              -
Decoy MX              2024   3             5               $3,999.00    $4,239.00    $4,190.25    $84.53      16              $240.00
Decoy MX              2024   4             5               $4,599.00    $4,649.00    $4,635.36    $23.35      11              $50.00
Decoy SN 29           2025   3             5               $4,499.00    $5,249.00    $4,843.44    $295.22     9               $750.00
Decoy SN MX           2024   2             5               $3,599.50    $3,599.50    $3,599.50    -           3               -
Decoy SN MX           2025   3             5               $3,899.50    $4,699.00    $4,529.85    $292.47     13              $799.50
Izzo 29               2025   4             5               $4,099.00    $4,099.00    $4,099.00    -           5               -
Decoy SN 29           2025   1             4               $3,299.00    $3,599.00    $3,524.00    $138.87     8               $300.00
Jeffsy 29             2025   1             4               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Capra 29              2025   1             3               $1,699.00    $1,799.00    $1,739.00    $54.77      5               $100.00
Capra MX              2022   3             3               $1,999.00    $1,999.00    $1,999.00    -           3               -
Capra MX              2025   4             3               $3,799.00    $3,999.00    $3,899.00    $141.42     2               $200.00
Decoy MX              2025   2             3               $4,899.00    $4,899.00    $4,899.00    NaN         1               -
Capra 29              2022   3             2               $1,999.00    $1,999.00    $1,999.00    -           3               -
Jeffsy MX             2024   NaN           2               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Jeffsy Primus 24      2024   NaN           2               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Jeffsy Primus 24      2025   NaN           2               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Szepter 700c          2022   3             2               $1,749.50    $2,099.00    $2,029.10    $156.30     5               $349.50
Tues 27               2022   2             2               $1,849.50    $1,849.50    $1,849.50    NaN         1               -
Capra 29              2025   4             1               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Decoy MX              2025   4             1               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Izzo 29               2024   4             1               $3,899.00    $3,899.00    $3,899.00    NaN         1               -
Izzo 29               2025   2             1               $2,999.00    $2,999.00    $2,999.00    NaN         1               -
Jeffsy 29             2024   2             1               $1,819.00    $1,819.00    $1,819.00    NaN         1               -
Jeffsy 29             2024   3             1               $2,794.00    $2,794.00    $2,794.00    NaN         1               -
Jeffsy Primus 26      2022   NaN           1               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Jeffsy Primus 26      2025   NaN           1               NaN           NaN           NaN           NaN         NaN             NaN
Tues 29               2024   2             1               $2,999.00    $2,999.00    $2,999.00    -           2               -


Observations:

LOTS of 2025 models as kinda to be expected. Heavy on the Jeffsy 29 core 2 -3 (30 skus), Capra 29 2-3 (20 skus), Capra MX 2 (13 skus).  The Decoy SN bikes just have a huge distribution in variation between 2024 and 2025 - 68 SKUs. Tues were few and far between.

I, personally, was hunting for one of the new 2025 Decoys on sale. This was curious. Jenson lumped in the 2024 Shimano motor ones into the same “Model Family” of the 2025 Bosch motor ones. If you were really paying attention you’d see that the “Core 5” 2025 Decoy MX was Shimano yet the Core 2,3,4 were the fancy new ones.  We only saw 10 SKUs of the Bosch motor ones and a very uneven size distribution. Presumably these bikes sold well before going into liquidation. Sadly, none of them was an XL.😔

Time Distribution:

Tooling and data being what it is, it’s a little hard to see sell through vs bad data vs website factors. I presume we are seeing a stock pull back in the lead up to black friday. Fun.

Conclusion:

Well, it was fun while it lasted. Jenson burned through that inventory with a quickness. Curious what their markup and sales costs were. There were some screaming deals if it was something you were looking for. Like a full Decoy SN 29 for $3,299. That’s practically a disposable ebike at that price. 

Have you seen their e-bike ? Surely drugs and/or blindness was involved in the design process on that one.

In all seriousness though, the collapse of many of these companies sure seems to follow the release of an ebike.

also 100% of them tried selling bikes with grips installed 

a juxtaposition to big corporate bike business -  DMR's doc by alex rankin. (figure it can go here b/c it's about a brand)

Say it with me:

"Correlation equals causation 100% of the time no matter what."

Also notable: "Sprained ankles only experienced by people with feet. Why do toes hate skateboarders?"




edit for those who may miss the joke: this is sarcasm, obviously

This is also likely a factor in the US
Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/race-and-ethnicity/2024/05/31/the-state-of-…