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I think a lot of people are underestimating the quantity of "in stock" bikes at certain companies
Look at how long Specialized has had the Levos on sale.. it's been crazy..
Not sure it is being discussed here, but word from many sources is that the next gen Levo has been ready for ages and they just keep pushing back the announcement due to the amount of unsold current gen stock.
Not shut down related but Canyon has a big ebike recall that should probly go on the home page. I don't want to paste the source but hopefully Spomer gets a PR email to post up later.
Direct link https://www.canyon.com/en-de/customer-service/repair-spares-warranty/sp…
Canyon e-bikes: so hot right now!
Wonder how REI feels about Canyon announcing a major recall right after their team-up...
I wonder how many other new models have been delayed? I expected to see this.. Or, the new product gets released, but the product is still months out..I recall seeing that a few times already..
Generally speaking, imposing blanket tarrifs on imported goods without first investing significantly in domestic manufacturing is a really good way to make everything get really expensive really fast. Nothing wrong with wanting a strong self sufficient and independent economy and strong domestic manufacturing, honestly it's better that way, but a tarrif like that is putting the wagon before the horse.
We may need to make a separate thread for people who want to chew on politics... Unless there's some kind of off topic one already. I come here for bicycles. (And for sneak dissing Canyon whenever possible...)
I don't know if anyone's checked out Niner recently, but they have some insane discounts on their bikes right now, like close to 50% off. I thought the bankruptcy and purchase was supposed to help them get capital for R and D, doesn't look like it worked.
https://www.ninerbikes.com/mountain/rip-9-rdo/
https://www.ninerbikes.com/wfo-9-rdo-4-star-shimano-xt/
It's putting the contents of the wagon before the horse prior to the wagon even being built.
I hope the wagon can hold everything and has a bunch of different pockets for all the different things it'll need to train, tool up for, find real estate for, hire for, find investors for, and create new distribution chains for (before even getting a chance to learn what sorts of things it'll have to hold and how much room that stuff will take up).
I'm one of those kooks who's a big fan of aggressive industrial policy to build up domestic industries, with the rapid growth and diversification of South Korea's industry in the 20th century as the classic textbook example, but yikes! Industrial policy is supposed to be a holistic thing, with taxes AND investment, and ideally the investment part comes BEFORE the taxes. Even in the case of South Korea the success story, it was pretty rough for a while! Like, decades. Buying a Hyundai car or Samsung refrigerator in 2024 is pretty great. But only being able to buy those products as a Korean resident... in 1974? Not so great.
One of my favorite descriptions of the post-Covid economic situation is of "the weird economy." It's been great for some people, terrible for others, great on average, but with wide disparities in impacts when you look at any specific industrial segment like housing, cars, construction, services, obviously bikes and the outdoor recreation industry in general. I was hoping things would get progressively less weird, but with the tariff thing and, you know, other stuff, I think it's gonna keep being weird for a while. If I'm an economic forecaster at Trek, Giant, or Specialized HQ right now...
I don't know if I'd tell the boss the truth that nobody knows, or come in real confident with my forecast and sound like I know what I'm talking about. Guess it depends on how much I trust my boss.
Anybody in the market for a tire factory? It's near Niagara Falls, NY.
https://www.roadracingworld.com/news/dunlop-racing-tire-factory-in-new-…
Tariffs and manufacturing bikes the USA:
Last time Trump was in office, his tariffs on foreign made raw aluminum increased the price of domestically produced aluminum by 30% overnight. It was a significant cost increase to manufacturing bikes in the USA.
Adding tariffs on complete bikes is a little different, but history has shown that increased import taxes (aka tariffs) increase costs for consumers and don't necessarily increase competitiveness for domestic manufacturing. See above example.
My crystal ball says this about complete bike tariffs: if you increase the price of some things in the market, the price of all things will go up. That's also called increased inflation.
Well, this one is a CC. The V1 Megatower is an itsy-bitsy teeny-weeny frame compared to this monster.
wtf, they thought 1 in 250 people in the whole of Australia was going to buy a trek mtb lol. Delusional.
I think we all know universal tariffs will be universally bad, but the really interesting aspect is how America's truly believe their economy is in bad shape, when in reality is the envy of the told and by far the most successful over the last few years.
If the tariffs come in hard and fast I definitely think it will push some companies over the edge, the bike companies are very precariously perched right now. Having to pay 10% extra on all Shimano/SRAM parts for OEM builds will be a massive burden, when we know the market will not tolerate price increases.
I don't think the companies have the capital to order now and stock up before the tariffs hit to mitigate the damage
For those interested in economics, this is a great piece of the tariffs applied to washer dryers in the US and how it achieved nothing (in fact it made it worse) https://www.apricitas.io/p/universal-tariffs-are-universally
"...the really interesting aspect is how America's truly believe their economy is in bad shape, when in reality is the envy of the [world] and by far the most successful over the last few years."
I've been yelling this at the top of my lungs to people around me. No one in my corner of the US would believe it or acknowledge it.
I THINK it's a short memory and a lack of A-to-C (and beyond) critical thinking. "It was really good and now it's worse?" They can understand that. But they can't understand "It was really good and now it's worse but much better than it could have been (and has been for many others) but also is poised to be back in a good position much sooner."
The destruction of the education system hasn't just been for funsies. It's because a lack of practice thinking critically leads to an electorate who puts a bandaid on roadrash thinking it'll heal up just fine but leaves the gravel in the wound because it hurts to dig it out.
Bringing it back to bikes:
All of that stiff is LITERALLY why I just hurried up and purchased a new bike on Nov 4th. It's a sick bike at a discounted price that I know I'll never see again. All of the components on it can be replaced with my current bike's components (aside from the hardtail vs fs shock stuff) so I have one complete turnover of the bike's parts. Was it exactly the bike I wanted? Not 100%. But it's a really sick bike, it's at a decent price, and I think companies are going to start raising even the discounted prices a little now in an effort to squirrel some cash into their pockets to absorb the price increases they'll have to front the money for in the near future.
Many US brands are going to be staring down the barrel of a further slowing economy with the majority of their supply chain getting instantly more expensive. That to me says we'll see more US-based brands closing and the brands in the rest of the world having less competition and growing. The US still hasn't recovered from the soybean tariffs but we refused to learn from that...and we're about to do that to how many of the pieces used the bike industry (and the rest of our lives)?
To clarify, it was all types, not just MTBs, but I think your point still stands, more or less.
What I am learning (and I know, anecdotes are not data) is that many/most Americans think that foreign companies will have to pay any tariffs and that the buck stops there; that that's how tariffs work, end of story 🥴
It should also be mentioned that there will be retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries. So, your reward for already making products here? Now, they'll be harder to sell elsewhere. Yay.
Then there are tariff exclusions or exemptions, which can be freely given to companies friendly to the administration. Smaller businesses or those without political connections may get stuck with the higher tariffs, which can hurt their ability to compete, even if they produce similar goods or services.
Yep.
A lot of A-to-B thinking without any regard for C, D, E, F, or any of the others all the way up to ZZ.
Not to take away from the conversation on tariffs, but seeing that photo of Zink's new frame in the tech rumors thread got me wondering... is the goal to just sell enough frames to offset the cost of making the frame that Zink wants to ride? Do Zink & co (I don't know who the '& co' are in this scenario, to be honest, but I assume he has some financial partners or backers involved) think they can sell enough frames/bikes to turn a significant profit? What is the expectation or plan here? It seems like they're trading on Zink's name/brand primarily, as the frame (no offense intended) doesn't feature anything new or noteworthy, technologically, and I'm curious what the expectations for the business are.
Also--Jeff Brines, if you're reading this, I really enjoyed the podcast but I'm a little disappointed you and Spomer didn't discuss the proliferation of third-party component brands, particularly bar/stem/pedal companies. Maybe it's just because I'm the type of person who puts a black alloy stem on every bike and never thinks twice about it, but my brain cannot fathom how many options there are on the market for those components--especially when so many of them are functionally indistinguishable. Are margins in that space exceptionally good or something?
Yes, that exact retaliatory effect is famously the source of the so-called "Chicken Tax" that we still impose on foreign light trucks imported into the USA, which was in retaliation for the European tariffs that were imposed on the inexpensive American chicken that was flooding European grocery stores in the boom time after WW2.
Ahhh, the chicken tax on cool Toyota pickups, now you’re hitting us right in the feelers as MTB nerds.
Well I’d imagine it’s not quite that simple. With Australia’s proximity to Taiwan I wouldn’t be suprised if many of those bikes are meant to be destined for other markets. Just simply those other markets have not needed containers of bikes shipped to them.
Don't think any bean counters at Trek HQ would have accepted to have container leave the assembly plant in Taiwan to get packed into container (labor and pallet fee), get sent to Kaoshiung port (transport fee), get on a boat and shipped to australia (maritime shipping fee), get cleared for customs (transport company custom handling fee and governement duty fee) just to sit in a warehouse unsold. waiting for another market to need them, repeat that shipping process and in the end up paying almost twice the shipping cost with current container cost fluctuating between 5000 to 10 000 USD door to door.
Could be possible that Trek Australia was also holding inventory for NZ but very slim chance those bikes get sent to Europe or NA.
This shit is ridiculous rofl
Anyone who's read or even skimmed The Wealth of Nations understands that limiting free trade is deleterious for both sides.
Personally I stocked myself to the gills with riding gear and parts to weather this shitstorm if it happens.
Unless there is something in Australia that they think might move better here.. I've seen Australia spec bikes show up here. The difference being the wheel reflectors and a bell. Years back I remember seeing some bike from Specialized that were originally intended for Australia.. Probably not the preferred way to do it, but in a pinch..
Thank you for the listen, and you're absolutely right—we should have addressed this point.
The proliferation of these companies in the mountain bike industry largely stems from how accessible this type of business is. These brands are essentially the "T-shirt companies" of the industry: they’re easy to start, require minimal capital, and are more akin to soft goods than advanced technical products. The primary focus for many of these businesses is building a strong brand rather than developing groundbreaking functionality—though functionality obviously still matters.
It’s important to distinguish between companies that rely on mass-produced, private-label products from overseas (often found via platforms like Alibaba) and those that have their own manufacturing capabilities, such as CNCs or production facilities in North America or Europe. The latter is not what I'm referring to in this post, and a completely different type business more akin to LVMH than {name your tee shirt brand here}. As to the former, those curious, a quick browse on Alibaba reveals how straightforward it can be to customize, brand, and import products at a low cost.
Because of this accessibility, it’s easy to imagine how someone could be drawn into the business model: have components manufactured, bagged or boxed, SKU’d, and prepared for sale entirely in Asia. The products are then shipped to an e-commerce fulfillment center integrated with your website, where they’re sold directly to consumers. From there, it’s a matter of running ads, sponsoring athletes, and building awareness. In theory, this could function as a nearly automated business—orders trigger new manufacturing runs, and the cycle repeats.
However, the reality is much more challenging. Moving products, even metaphorical “T-shirts,” is incredibly difficult. Building brand equity is a monumental task, especially if the products themselves lack differentiation or memorability. That said, we will likely see more of these companies emerge, often with a niche twist—like titanium handlebars with extra flex, carbon bars designed for vibration damping, and stems to compliment your swank. (to be fair, what I just described is way more LVMH than it is generic tee shirt brand)
The truth is, few companies truly break through. Deity is one of the only examples (I can think of) of a brand that has successfully navigated this space utilizing overseas manufacturing and achieved lasting success. Most others, outside the OEMs, unfortunately, fade into obscurity.
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