Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in...
Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.
For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in the world, has been around for 50 years, and has done thousands of deals.
Based on my quick-and-dirty research into publicly documented deals, this looks like one of KKR's biggest losses in absolute dollars, potentially among its five worst (ever!)
Expanding the comparison to the entire private equity industry, I'd rank it around the ~20th worst deal ever. Especially when you consider the speed in which this one went belly up. I could go dig and figure out what fund it was in to see what IRR its kicked off (depending on if that is public)
Yeah...heads probably rolled. But then again, you'd be surprised how that sometimes works.
There will be (if not already) many dissertations on the effects the covid-era boom and bust cycle. Much of the research I've come across is dated enough that it excludes the outcomes of the last 2-3 years.
Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in...
Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.
For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in the world, has been around for 50 years, and has done thousands of deals.
Based on my quick-and-dirty research into publicly documented deals, this looks like one of KKR's biggest losses in absolute dollars, potentially among its five worst (ever!)
Expanding the comparison to the entire private equity industry, I'd rank it around the ~20th worst deal ever. Especially when you consider the speed in which this one went belly up. I could go dig and figure out what fund it was in to see what IRR its kicked off (depending on if that is public)
Yeah...heads probably rolled. But then again, you'd be surprised how that sometimes works.
There will be (if not already) many dissertations on the effects the covid-era boom and bust cycle. Much of the research I've come across is dated...
There will be (if not already) many dissertations on the effects the covid-era boom and bust cycle. Much of the research I've come across is dated enough that it excludes the outcomes of the last 2-3 years.
From an academic perspective, it's not particularly unique. It's just another boom bust that we've seen many many times before in a lot of industries.
The interesting part is measuring permeant changes (or lack of) in spending patterns due to the lockdowns and increased leisure and experience driven spending.
Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in...
Others beat me to it, but yes, KKR ended up paying dearly for this one.
For context, KKR is one of the largest private equity firms in the world, has been around for 50 years, and has done thousands of deals.
Based on my quick-and-dirty research into publicly documented deals, this looks like one of KKR's biggest losses in absolute dollars, potentially among its five worst (ever!)
Expanding the comparison to the entire private equity industry, I'd rank it around the ~20th worst deal ever. Especially when you consider the speed in which this one went belly up. I could go dig and figure out what fund it was in to see what IRR its kicked off (depending on if that is public)
Yeah...heads probably rolled. But then again, you'd be surprised how that sometimes works.
There will be (if not already) many dissertations on the effects the covid-era boom and bust cycle. Much of the research I've come across is dated...
There will be (if not already) many dissertations on the effects the covid-era boom and bust cycle. Much of the research I've come across is dated enough that it excludes the outcomes of the last 2-3 years.
From an academic perspective, it's not particularly unique. It's just another boom bust that we've seen many many times before in a lot of industries. The interesting...
From an academic perspective, it's not particularly unique. It's just another boom bust that we've seen many many times before in a lot of industries.
The interesting part is measuring permeant changes (or lack of) in spending patterns due to the lockdowns and increased leisure and experience driven spending.
To your point, the mountain bike industry has weathered the dot-com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, and now COVID.
I agree that COVID was different, largely because it fundamentally changed consumer behavior and pushed people toward new hobbies and activities. What's more nuanced, however, is just how many headwinds have emerged in its wake.
It's not simply an oversupply problem caused by pulling demand forward, nor is it the result of any single macroeconomic event. It's a combination of supply chain disruptions, the end of more than a decade of artificially low interest rates, slowing technological innovation in the industry, and now an AI boom that's reshaping capital markets and putting additional upward pressure on rates (who wants to invest in bikes, these days?).
Meanwhile, the middle class continues to face pressure on wages, purchasing power, and upward mobility. Put all of that together, and you have an outdoor industry facing a pretty difficult structural environment, one that feels markedly different from the growth we saw in the '90s, 2000s, and 2010s.
At least that's my read. Admittedly, some of that is based on vibes rather than hard data.
To your point, the mountain bike industry has weathered the dot-com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, and now COVID.I agree that COVID was different, largely because...
To your point, the mountain bike industry has weathered the dot-com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, and now COVID.
I agree that COVID was different, largely because it fundamentally changed consumer behavior and pushed people toward new hobbies and activities. What's more nuanced, however, is just how many headwinds have emerged in its wake.
It's not simply an oversupply problem caused by pulling demand forward, nor is it the result of any single macroeconomic event. It's a combination of supply chain disruptions, the end of more than a decade of artificially low interest rates, slowing technological innovation in the industry, and now an AI boom that's reshaping capital markets and putting additional upward pressure on rates (who wants to invest in bikes, these days?).
Meanwhile, the middle class continues to face pressure on wages, purchasing power, and upward mobility. Put all of that together, and you have an outdoor industry facing a pretty difficult structural environment, one that feels markedly different from the growth we saw in the '90s, 2000s, and 2010s.
At least that's my read. Admittedly, some of that is based on vibes rather than hard data.
Thinking about the mountain biking timeline has me pondering some choices in the beginning. Was so much of it budget limited as we were still recovering from the early 1980’s recession?
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the MTB and even eMTB markets as we know them*. anecdotally i see more kids on those than pedal bikes by a landslide in the last year. kids used to a throttle probably aren't going to be super excited to have to pedal. MTBs and eMTBs that we all enjoy being twice the price of an e-moto will perplex parents for sure.
*do not derail this into a discussion about e-bike/e-moto access or rider stupidity please.
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the...
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the MTB and even eMTB markets as we know them*. anecdotally i see more kids on those than pedal bikes by a landslide in the last year. kids used to a throttle probably aren't going to be super excited to have to pedal. MTBs and eMTBs that we all enjoy being twice the price of an e-moto will perplex parents for sure.
*do not derail this into a discussion about e-bike/e-moto access or rider stupidity please.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating:
Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers, and road bikers love them and spend money on them.
Ebikes make little sense to moto riders. They make a lot of sense to mountain bikers, and mountain bikers love them and spend money on them.
If you are young and have yet to pick your hobby, its rare that an ebike makes more sense than a Surron, since you have yet to form a mountain biking foundation. I think sppomer is right, what ebikes have done to mountain bikes will be done to ebikes by Surrons.
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the...
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the MTB and even eMTB markets as we know them*. anecdotally i see more kids on those than pedal bikes by a landslide in the last year. kids used to a throttle probably aren't going to be super excited to have to pedal. MTBs and eMTBs that we all enjoy being twice the price of an e-moto will perplex parents for sure.
*do not derail this into a discussion about e-bike/e-moto access or rider stupidity please.
I also wonder about the impact of ride sharing bikes, like Lime. Why would I ever buy an entry level bike like a Linus if I can just pay a few dollars to use a shared e-bike that I don't have to worry about being stolen, or a repair bill of a few hundred dollars? For the people that would have bought a bike to ride 2-3 times a year why wouldn't you just rely on shared bikes? Perhaps another contributing factor as to why more and more companies are focusing on the luxury end of the market.
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the...
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the MTB and even eMTB markets as we know them*. anecdotally i see more kids on those than pedal bikes by a landslide in the last year. kids used to a throttle probably aren't going to be super excited to have to pedal. MTBs and eMTBs that we all enjoy being twice the price of an e-moto will perplex parents for sure.
*do not derail this into a discussion about e-bike/e-moto access or rider stupidity please.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating: Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers...
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating:
Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers, and road bikers love them and spend money on them.
Ebikes make little sense to moto riders. They make a lot of sense to mountain bikers, and mountain bikers love them and spend money on them.
If you are young and have yet to pick your hobby, its rare that an ebike makes more sense than a Surron, since you have yet to form a mountain biking foundation. I think sppomer is right, what ebikes have done to mountain bikes will be done to ebikes by Surrons.
Lots of caveats and exceptions of course
I disagree a bit on the gravel bike as I have seen a huge uptake locally from the mountain bike community.
I think it is probably depends on your geographic area as we have countless miles of gravel roads to explore that a mountain bike would feel like a slog on and lots of mellow trails to connect everything together.
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the...
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the MTB and even eMTB markets as we know them*. anecdotally i see more kids on those than pedal bikes by a landslide in the last year. kids used to a throttle probably aren't going to be super excited to have to pedal. MTBs and eMTBs that we all enjoy being twice the price of an e-moto will perplex parents for sure.
*do not derail this into a discussion about e-bike/e-moto access or rider stupidity please.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating: Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers...
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating:
Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers, and road bikers love them and spend money on them.
Ebikes make little sense to moto riders. They make a lot of sense to mountain bikers, and mountain bikers love them and spend money on them.
If you are young and have yet to pick your hobby, its rare that an ebike makes more sense than a Surron, since you have yet to form a mountain biking foundation. I think sppomer is right, what ebikes have done to mountain bikes will be done to ebikes by Surrons.
I disagree a bit on the gravel bike as I have seen a huge uptake locally from the mountain bike community. I think it is probably depends...
I disagree a bit on the gravel bike as I have seen a huge uptake locally from the mountain bike community.
I think it is probably depends on your geographic area as we have countless miles of gravel roads to explore that a mountain bike would feel like a slog on and lots of mellow trails to connect everything together.
We have hundreds of miles of gravel around here too, but the grade is such that you need mountain bike gearing!
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the...
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the MTB and even eMTB markets as we know them*. anecdotally i see more kids on those than pedal bikes by a landslide in the last year. kids used to a throttle probably aren't going to be super excited to have to pedal. MTBs and eMTBs that we all enjoy being twice the price of an e-moto will perplex parents for sure.
*do not derail this into a discussion about e-bike/e-moto access or rider stupidity please.
In the emoto Youtube space there is quite some crossover with moto and MTB/eMTB. So the kids get exposed to more than just the emoto stuff. BTW: I think you sound pretty arrogant if you claim Surrons are "kids ebikes". They are more legit than all those e-moppeds cosplaying as bicycles.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating: Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers...
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating:
Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers, and road bikers love them and spend money on them.
Ebikes make little sense to moto riders. They make a lot of sense to mountain bikers, and mountain bikers love them and spend money on them.
If you are young and have yet to pick your hobby, its rare that an ebike makes more sense than a Surron, since you have yet to form a mountain biking foundation. I think sppomer is right, what ebikes have done to mountain bikes will be done to ebikes by Surrons.
Lots of caveats and exceptions of course
Maybe I am not the perfect example, but I started with mountain bikes, then got also into ICE motos, then added road bikes, then gravel bikes, then BMX and as the latest eMoto. I still ride all of them. Two-wheeled vehicles are fun!
Funny that the only category I never gelled with are Class 1 and 2 ebikes. They feel like a compromise to me, not a real moto, not a real bicycle.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating: Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers...
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating:
Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers, and road bikers love them and spend money on them.
Ebikes make little sense to moto riders. They make a lot of sense to mountain bikers, and mountain bikers love them and spend money on them.
If you are young and have yet to pick your hobby, its rare that an ebike makes more sense than a Surron, since you have yet to form a mountain biking foundation. I think sppomer is right, what ebikes have done to mountain bikes will be done to ebikes by Surrons.
Maybe I am not the perfect example, but I started with mountain bikes, then got also into ICE motos, then added road bikes, then gravel bikes...
Maybe I am not the perfect example, but I started with mountain bikes, then got also into ICE motos, then added road bikes, then gravel bikes, then BMX and as the latest eMoto. I still ride all of them. Two-wheeled vehicles are fun!
Funny that the only category I never gelled with are Class 1 and 2 ebikes. They feel like a compromise to me, not a real moto, not a real bicycle.
But look at the direction-road bikes THEN gravel bikes, and mountain bikes before ebikes. You likely started with mountain bikes because emotos/escooters didn't exist yet, and ICE motos were not the same financial tier as a hard tail, V brake mountain bike.
If you are 14 today, getting into a two wheeled, adrenaline burning hobby, a surron is cheaper than an ebike. I see 4/5 kids choosing the surron.
But look at the direction-road bikes THEN gravel bikes, and mountain bikes before ebikes. You likely started with mountain bikes because emotos/escooters didn't exist yet, and...
But look at the direction-road bikes THEN gravel bikes, and mountain bikes before ebikes. You likely started with mountain bikes because emotos/escooters didn't exist yet, and ICE motos were not the same financial tier as a hard tail, V brake mountain bike.
If you are 14 today, getting into a two wheeled, adrenaline burning hobby, a surron is cheaper than an ebike. I see 4/5 kids choosing the surron.
Yeah, at a younger age there was no legal way to ride a moto, so mountain bike it was. Correct, ebikes didn't exist at the time nor did gravel bikes when I bought my first road bike. I bought my first gravel bike in 2010, long before the hype.
You should see how many kids in skate parks are on BMX or DJ bikes, just wonderful. But around here the police is heavily cracking down on ebike and escooter riding as they are illegal on public roads and bike paths.
In the emoto Youtube space there is quite some crossover with moto and MTB/eMTB. So the kids get exposed to more than just the emoto stuff...
In the emoto Youtube space there is quite some crossover with moto and MTB/eMTB. So the kids get exposed to more than just the emoto stuff. BTW: I think you sound pretty arrogant if you claim Surrons are "kids ebikes". They are more legit than all those e-moppeds cosplaying as bicycles.
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy one, but think they're sick). i lump them all together because the gangs of kids around here (and in plenty of towns) are riding e-motos and e-mopeds and e-scooters all in the same clique. once in a while there's a kid on a pedal bike and he's getting towed or dropped by the rest of the crew.
good point about youtuber crossover and the reach there. i've definitely seen similar.
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy...
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy one, but think they're sick). i lump them all together because the gangs of kids around here (and in plenty of towns) are riding e-motos and e-mopeds and e-scooters all in the same clique. once in a while there's a kid on a pedal bike and he's getting towed or dropped by the rest of the crew.
good point about youtuber crossover and the reach there. i've definitely seen similar.
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy...
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy one, but think they're sick). i lump them all together because the gangs of kids around here (and in plenty of towns) are riding e-motos and e-mopeds and e-scooters all in the same clique. once in a while there's a kid on a pedal bike and he's getting towed or dropped by the rest of the crew.
good point about youtuber crossover and the reach there. i've definitely seen similar.
Sorry, misunderstood you then. I just think people are underselling these light emotos. I have one on plates and it is my daily commuter. Living in the countryside, I sadly do not have the option of public transport. During the summer there are phases where the car does not get used for 6 weeks straight because I commute and run errands by emoto or bicycle (I also can ride to the trails).
The emotos are a great option for a rather cheap and environmental friendly mobility solution. They also need way less maintenance than a car, bike or ICE moto. The kids riding them illegally give them a bad rep, hindring a wider adoption of them as they are seen as "kids toys" instead of worthy mode of transportation.
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy...
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy one, but think they're sick). i lump them all together because the gangs of kids around here (and in plenty of towns) are riding e-motos and e-mopeds and e-scooters all in the same clique. once in a while there's a kid on a pedal bike and he's getting towed or dropped by the rest of the crew.
good point about youtuber crossover and the reach there. i've definitely seen similar.
Sorry, misunderstood you then. I just think people are underselling these light emotos. I have one on plates and it is my daily commuter. Living in...
Sorry, misunderstood you then. I just think people are underselling these light emotos. I have one on plates and it is my daily commuter. Living in the countryside, I sadly do not have the option of public transport. During the summer there are phases where the car does not get used for 6 weeks straight because I commute and run errands by emoto or bicycle (I also can ride to the trails).
The emotos are a great option for a rather cheap and environmental friendly mobility solution. They also need way less maintenance than a car, bike or ICE moto. The kids riding them illegally give them a bad rep, hindring a wider adoption of them as they are seen as "kids toys" instead of worthy mode of transportation.
Did you buy one that was already street legal, or did you convert it? If the latter, what is required to register it? Does it need insurance? It sounds like a pretty fun way to zip around town when the bicycle would take too long or leave you too sweaty. Motor scooters have always seemed practical and economical, but lacking in the fun factor of a emoto.
Did you buy one that was already street legal, or did you convert it? If the latter, what is required to register it? Does it need...
Did you buy one that was already street legal, or did you convert it? If the latter, what is required to register it? Does it need insurance? It sounds like a pretty fun way to zip around town when the bicycle would take too long or leave you too sweaty. Motor scooters have always seemed practical and economical, but lacking in the fun factor of a emoto.
Note that I live in Europe. If you buy through an offical distributer here, the bikes come with a Certificate of Conformity (CoC, a general type approval) that allows you to register it and everything required for it is installed on the bike (lights, blinkers, mirrors). Most reputable emotos can be plated, e.g. Light Bee, Ultra Bee, Komodo. From what I have read, some states in the US require a foot brake for the rear, here the hand brake is perfectly OK. Direct imports from AliEx do not have the CoC and are more of a pain to get legal from what I have heard. You have to go through the steps to document conformity yourself. So it is possible, but not as easy. Yep, the bike is also insured as it is in the same class as 125 cc ICE motos.
Can confirm that they are a lot of fun in town and on small side roads. For highway use they are too slow (mine maxes out at 60 mph) to feel comfortable IMO. It is a nice "in between" a car and a bicycle.
Thinking about the mountain biking timeline has me pondering some choices in the beginning. Was so much of it budget limited as we were still recovering...
Thinking about the mountain biking timeline has me pondering some choices in the beginning. Was so much of it budget limited as we were still recovering from the early 1980’s recession?
The Early history of the mtb industry, limited? Historically, I don’t see that.
We are barely 50 years into the sport. 1977-1987 might have been pretty limited in terms of the growth of brands and product but from the time Schwinn moved production to Giant in ‘87 just about every adult bike brand was selling mountain bikes, Shimano had released Deore, and perestroika and the collapse of the Soviet Union over the next few years would yield a sizable “peace dividend” including the famous Last Supper in 1993 that turned 500 US military contractors into 5 and eventually a 600 ship navy into a 240 ship navy, giving American machine shops and titanium pipe makers a chance to pump out a vast array of colorful trinkets and consumer products. The intial offshoring the Schwinn family pushed to Taiwan, and the Fujis and Ross’s and Specialized mtb’s coming from Japan all landed at the same time as the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 80’s, it’s true, but nothing could stop the momentum NORBA and it’s advocacy for mtb racing was already creating. A sexy, liberating, technologically driven sport had very little trouble finding sponsorship initially… The first NORBA champion, Steve Tilford was racing on a team sponsored by a blue jean company (Levi’s).
Grundig a West German manufacturer of short wave radios(designed to listen to civil defense broadcasts in the west, and capitalist propaganda in the East) was, already in 1989, a long time sponsor of the UCI and stepped up to sponsor the innagural mtb world cup series in ‘91.
Nationally, the brother of the 1984 olympic road race champion, Rishi Grewal, used his brother’s fame and his support from GT to sit down with Coors Light, who agreed to pay for the intial ESPN broadcasts of the US national series in 1991.
Mountain biking, as an industry and a sport thrives when the people making decisions are attached to the sport and have historical perspective that allows them to market this amazing pastime.
The biggest financial failures in mountain biking have all been related to listing your brand on the stock market(Cannondale, Rockshox both had disastrous 1995 IPO’s), or inviting private equity goons into your board room(GT after Richard Long’s death).
Thinking about the mountain biking timeline has me pondering some choices in the beginning. Was so much of it budget limited as we were still recovering...
Thinking about the mountain biking timeline has me pondering some choices in the beginning. Was so much of it budget limited as we were still recovering from the early 1980’s recession?
The Early history of the mtb industry, limited? Historically, I don’t see that. We are barely 50 years into the sport. 1977-1987 might have been pretty limited...
The Early history of the mtb industry, limited? Historically, I don’t see that.
We are barely 50 years into the sport. 1977-1987 might have been pretty limited in terms of the growth of brands and product but from the time Schwinn moved production to Giant in ‘87 just about every adult bike brand was selling mountain bikes, Shimano had released Deore, and perestroika and the collapse of the Soviet Union over the next few years would yield a sizable “peace dividend” including the famous Last Supper in 1993 that turned 500 US military contractors into 5 and eventually a 600 ship navy into a 240 ship navy, giving American machine shops and titanium pipe makers a chance to pump out a vast array of colorful trinkets and consumer products. The intial offshoring the Schwinn family pushed to Taiwan, and the Fujis and Ross’s and Specialized mtb’s coming from Japan all landed at the same time as the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 80’s, it’s true, but nothing could stop the momentum NORBA and it’s advocacy for mtb racing was already creating. A sexy, liberating, technologically driven sport had very little trouble finding sponsorship initially… The first NORBA champion, Steve Tilford was racing on a team sponsored by a blue jean company (Levi’s).
Grundig a West German manufacturer of short wave radios(designed to listen to civil defense broadcasts in the west, and capitalist propaganda in the East) was, already in 1989, a long time sponsor of the UCI and stepped up to sponsor the innagural mtb world cup series in ‘91.
Nationally, the brother of the 1984 olympic road race champion, Rishi Grewal, used his brother’s fame and his support from GT to sit down with Coors Light, who agreed to pay for the intial ESPN broadcasts of the US national series in 1991.
Mountain biking, as an industry and a sport thrives when the people making decisions are attached to the sport and have historical perspective that allows them to market this amazing pastime.
The biggest financial failures in mountain biking have all been related to listing your brand on the stock market(Cannondale, Rockshox both had disastrous 1995 IPO’s), or inviting private equity goons into your board room(GT after Richard Long’s death).
Great history here. Some of which I did not know!
But I'll push back on your last paragraph...
Raising capital didn’t kill those brands. Giant and Merida have been public in Taiwan since the early ’90s, and Merida used that money to buy half of Specialized (I think). Fox went from PE ownership to a successful IPO, and I'd argue all that capital has allowed for better and better stuff at lower prices.
SRAM took Lehman money and kept pouring it into RockShox. Cannondale failed because it bet the company on motocross (and other weird shit), not because it went public. Scaling too fast or into the wrong business will blow up a company in any industry. Scale has also allowed for companies to bring better and better stuff to market while pricing has broadly gone down, net net (meaning a $3,500 bike today is better than a $7000 bike 10 years ago)
Great history here. Some of which I did not know!But I'll push back on your last paragraph...Raising capital didn’t kill those brands. Giant and Merida have...
Great history here. Some of which I did not know!
But I'll push back on your last paragraph...
Raising capital didn’t kill those brands. Giant and Merida have been public in Taiwan since the early ’90s, and Merida used that money to buy half of Specialized (I think). Fox went from PE ownership to a successful IPO, and I'd argue all that capital has allowed for better and better stuff at lower prices.
SRAM took Lehman money and kept pouring it into RockShox. Cannondale failed because it bet the company on motocross (and other weird shit), not because it went public. Scaling too fast or into the wrong business will blow up a company in any industry. Scale has also allowed for companies to bring better and better stuff to market while pricing has broadly gone down, net net (meaning a $3,500 bike today is better than a $7000 bike 10 years ago)
Wow I had no idea about SRAM and Lehman. That deal went down in the weeks leading up to and immediately following Lehman filing for bankruptcy in 2008. Insane.
Great history here. Some of which I did not know!But I'll push back on your last paragraph...Raising capital didn’t kill those brands. Giant and Merida have...
Great history here. Some of which I did not know!
But I'll push back on your last paragraph...
Raising capital didn’t kill those brands. Giant and Merida have been public in Taiwan since the early ’90s, and Merida used that money to buy half of Specialized (I think). Fox went from PE ownership to a successful IPO, and I'd argue all that capital has allowed for better and better stuff at lower prices.
SRAM took Lehman money and kept pouring it into RockShox. Cannondale failed because it bet the company on motocross (and other weird shit), not because it went public. Scaling too fast or into the wrong business will blow up a company in any industry. Scale has also allowed for companies to bring better and better stuff to market while pricing has broadly gone down, net net (meaning a $3,500 bike today is better than a $7000 bike 10 years ago)
Jeff,
Access to capital is dangerous. Montgomery never could have blow up his business with unchecked ego at Cannondale without the access to capital that ipo offered. GT was crashed the first time by Bain Capital being way too stoked on oversized racing expenses… under Bain leadership they were spending something like $10 million a year on racing across every uci discipline while only doing $2.5 million a year in sales way past the 1997 peak in mtb sales and non-endemic sponsorship.
I’m not sure how old you are, but I bought Cannondale and Rockshox stock with my Powerbar photo contingency money when I was a freshman in high school. Nobody likes getting fleeced.
There will be (if not already) many dissertations on the effects the covid-era boom and bust cycle. Much of the research I've come across is dated enough that it excludes the outcomes of the last 2-3 years.
From an academic perspective, it's not particularly unique. It's just another boom bust that we've seen many many times before in a lot of industries.
The interesting part is measuring permeant changes (or lack of) in spending patterns due to the lockdowns and increased leisure and experience driven spending.
To your point, the mountain bike industry has weathered the dot-com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, and now COVID.
I agree that COVID was different, largely because it fundamentally changed consumer behavior and pushed people toward new hobbies and activities. What's more nuanced, however, is just how many headwinds have emerged in its wake.
It's not simply an oversupply problem caused by pulling demand forward, nor is it the result of any single macroeconomic event. It's a combination of supply chain disruptions, the end of more than a decade of artificially low interest rates, slowing technological innovation in the industry, and now an AI boom that's reshaping capital markets and putting additional upward pressure on rates (who wants to invest in bikes, these days?).
Meanwhile, the middle class continues to face pressure on wages, purchasing power, and upward mobility. Put all of that together, and you have an outdoor industry facing a pretty difficult structural environment, one that feels markedly different from the growth we saw in the '90s, 2000s, and 2010s.
At least that's my read. Admittedly, some of that is based on vibes rather than hard data.
Looks like Ghost is no longer toast as the same company that acquired Winora and Haibike from Accel will also be taking over Ghost.
Yeah the IP is "saved", but not a single employee retained their job
Linus Bikes sent a dealer email that they're calling it quits after 20 years
Where's the spreadsheet graveyard
Thinking about the mountain biking timeline has me pondering some choices in the beginning. Was so much of it budget limited as we were still recovering from the early 1980’s recession?
this time around, i'd add "rad power bikes / surrons / e-scooters" (used as an all-encompassing generic term for kids ebikes) as a disruptor to the MTB and even eMTB markets as we know them*. anecdotally i see more kids on those than pedal bikes by a landslide in the last year. kids used to a throttle probably aren't going to be super excited to have to pedal. MTBs and eMTBs that we all enjoy being twice the price of an e-moto will perplex parents for sure.
*do not derail this into a discussion about e-bike/e-moto access or rider stupidity please.
I've said this elsewhere, but I think it bears repeating:
Gravel bikes make little sense to mountain bikers. They make a lot of sense to road bikers, and road bikers love them and spend money on them.
Ebikes make little sense to moto riders. They make a lot of sense to mountain bikers, and mountain bikers love them and spend money on them.
If you are young and have yet to pick your hobby, its rare that an ebike makes more sense than a Surron, since you have yet to form a mountain biking foundation. I think sppomer is right, what ebikes have done to mountain bikes will be done to ebikes by Surrons.
Lots of caveats and exceptions of course
I also wonder about the impact of ride sharing bikes, like Lime. Why would I ever buy an entry level bike like a Linus if I can just pay a few dollars to use a shared e-bike that I don't have to worry about being stolen, or a repair bill of a few hundred dollars? For the people that would have bought a bike to ride 2-3 times a year why wouldn't you just rely on shared bikes? Perhaps another contributing factor as to why more and more companies are focusing on the luxury end of the market.
I disagree a bit on the gravel bike as I have seen a huge uptake locally from the mountain bike community.
I think it is probably depends on your geographic area as we have countless miles of gravel roads to explore that a mountain bike would feel like a slog on and lots of mellow trails to connect everything together.
We have hundreds of miles of gravel around here too, but the grade is such that you need mountain bike gearing!
In the emoto Youtube space there is quite some crossover with moto and MTB/eMTB. So the kids get exposed to more than just the emoto stuff. BTW: I think you sound pretty arrogant if you claim Surrons are "kids ebikes". They are more legit than all those e-moppeds cosplaying as bicycles.
Maybe I am not the perfect example, but I started with mountain bikes, then got also into ICE motos, then added road bikes, then gravel bikes, then BMX and as the latest eMoto. I still ride all of them. Two-wheeled vehicles are fun!
Funny that the only category I never gelled with are Class 1 and 2 ebikes. They feel like a compromise to me, not a real moto, not a real bicycle.
But look at the direction-road bikes THEN gravel bikes, and mountain bikes before ebikes. You likely started with mountain bikes because emotos/escooters didn't exist yet, and ICE motos were not the same financial tier as a hard tail, V brake mountain bike.
If you are 14 today, getting into a two wheeled, adrenaline burning hobby, a surron is cheaper than an ebike. I see 4/5 kids choosing the surron.
Yeah, at a younger age there was no legal way to ride a moto, so mountain bike it was. Correct, ebikes didn't exist at the time nor did gravel bikes when I bought my first road bike. I bought my first gravel bike in 2010, long before the hype.
You should see how many kids in skate parks are on BMX or DJ bikes, just wonderful. But around here the police is heavily cracking down on ebike and escooter riding as they are illegal on public roads and bike paths.
not trying to be arrogant. i understand what surrons (yozmas or other emotos) are and what they're capable of (i personally don't have one, wouldn't buy one, but think they're sick). i lump them all together because the gangs of kids around here (and in plenty of towns) are riding e-motos and e-mopeds and e-scooters all in the same clique. once in a while there's a kid on a pedal bike and he's getting towed or dropped by the rest of the crew.
good point about youtuber crossover and the reach there. i've definitely seen similar.
Boise?
Sorry, misunderstood you then. I just think people are underselling these light emotos. I have one on plates and it is my daily commuter. Living in the countryside, I sadly do not have the option of public transport. During the summer there are phases where the car does not get used for 6 weeks straight because I commute and run errands by emoto or bicycle (I also can ride to the trails).
The emotos are a great option for a rather cheap and environmental friendly mobility solution. They also need way less maintenance than a car, bike or ICE moto. The kids riding them illegally give them a bad rep, hindring a wider adoption of them as they are seen as "kids toys" instead of worthy mode of transportation.
Did you buy one that was already street legal, or did you convert it? If the latter, what is required to register it? Does it need insurance? It sounds like a pretty fun way to zip around town when the bicycle would take too long or leave you too sweaty. Motor scooters have always seemed practical and economical, but lacking in the fun factor of a emoto.
Note that I live in Europe. If you buy through an offical distributer here, the bikes come with a Certificate of Conformity (CoC, a general type approval) that allows you to register it and everything required for it is installed on the bike (lights, blinkers, mirrors). Most reputable emotos can be plated, e.g. Light Bee, Ultra Bee, Komodo. From what I have read, some states in the US require a foot brake for the rear, here the hand brake is perfectly OK. Direct imports from AliEx do not have the CoC and are more of a pain to get legal from what I have heard. You have to go through the steps to document conformity yourself. So it is possible, but not as easy. Yep, the bike is also insured as it is in the same class as 125 cc ICE motos.
Can confirm that they are a lot of fun in town and on small side roads. For highway use they are too slow (mine maxes out at 60 mph) to feel comfortable IMO. It is a nice "in between" a car and a bicycle.
The Early history of the mtb industry, limited? Historically, I don’t see that.
We are barely 50 years into the sport. 1977-1987 might have been pretty limited in terms of the growth of brands and product but from the time Schwinn moved production to Giant in ‘87 just about every adult bike brand was selling mountain bikes, Shimano had released Deore, and perestroika and the collapse of the Soviet Union over the next few years would yield a sizable “peace dividend” including the famous Last Supper in 1993 that turned 500 US military contractors into 5 and eventually a 600 ship navy into a 240 ship navy, giving American machine shops and titanium pipe makers a chance to pump out a vast array of colorful trinkets and consumer products. The intial offshoring the Schwinn family pushed to Taiwan, and the Fujis and Ross’s and Specialized mtb’s coming from Japan all landed at the same time as the Savings and Loan crisis of the late 80’s, it’s true, but nothing could stop the momentum NORBA and it’s advocacy for mtb racing was already creating. A sexy, liberating, technologically driven sport had very little trouble finding sponsorship initially… The first NORBA champion, Steve Tilford was racing on a team sponsored by a blue jean company (Levi’s).
Grundig a West German manufacturer of short wave radios(designed to listen to civil defense broadcasts in the west, and capitalist propaganda in the East) was, already in 1989, a long time sponsor of the UCI and stepped up to sponsor the innagural mtb world cup series in ‘91.
Nationally, the brother of the 1984 olympic road race champion, Rishi Grewal, used his brother’s fame and his support from GT to sit down with Coors Light, who agreed to pay for the intial ESPN broadcasts of the US national series in 1991.
Mountain biking, as an industry and a sport thrives when the people making decisions are attached to the sport and have historical perspective that allows them to market this amazing pastime.
The biggest financial failures in mountain biking have all been related to listing your brand on the stock market(Cannondale, Rockshox both had disastrous 1995 IPO’s), or inviting private equity goons into your board room(GT after Richard Long’s death).
Great history here. Some of which I did not know!
But I'll push back on your last paragraph...
Raising capital didn’t kill those brands. Giant and Merida have been public in Taiwan since the early ’90s, and Merida used that money to buy half of Specialized (I think). Fox went from PE ownership to a successful IPO, and I'd argue all that capital has allowed for better and better stuff at lower prices.
SRAM took Lehman money and kept pouring it into RockShox. Cannondale failed because it bet the company on motocross (and other weird shit), not because it went public. Scaling too fast or into the wrong business will blow up a company in any industry. Scale has also allowed for companies to bring better and better stuff to market while pricing has broadly gone down, net net (meaning a $3,500 bike today is better than a $7000 bike 10 years ago)
Wow I had no idea about SRAM and Lehman. That deal went down in the weeks leading up to and immediately following Lehman filing for bankruptcy in 2008. Insane.
Jeff,
Access to capital is dangerous. Montgomery never could have blow up his business with unchecked ego at Cannondale without the access to capital that ipo offered. GT was crashed the first time by Bain Capital being way too stoked on oversized racing expenses… under Bain leadership they were spending something like $10 million a year on racing across every uci discipline while only doing $2.5 million a year in sales way past the 1997 peak in mtb sales and non-endemic sponsorship.
I’m not sure how old you are, but I bought Cannondale and Rockshox stock with my Powerbar photo contingency money when I was a freshman in high school. Nobody likes getting fleeced.
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