The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

AndehM
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893
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El Granada, CA, USA
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1 day ago
You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing...

You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing those impacts objectively is absolutely fair game. But turning this thread into a debate over how terrible one politician or another is on the world stage isn't really where I hoped the conversation would go. There's plenty of room for that elsewhere.

63expert wrote:
💯💯💯The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world...

💯💯💯


The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world today. 

Carry the political discussion someplace else. 

Losifer wrote:

Global/international economic discussions cannot be apolitical in our current systems.

It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it.  If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).

16
jeff.brines
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1314
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Location
Grand Junction, CO, USA
1 day ago
63expert wrote:
💯💯💯The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world...

💯💯💯


The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world today. 

Carry the political discussion someplace else. 

Losifer wrote:

Global/international economic discussions cannot be apolitical in our current systems.

AndehM wrote:
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it.  If you talk to an investment...

It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it.  If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).

@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question or observation, and it also ties back into the outdoor industry, this is a great place to do so. The line is pretty clear. 

 

8
jalopyj
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Location
Concord, CA, USA
Fantasy
1 day ago

Great to see Garmin doing well but I can’t help but think they are the next “blackberry”. I have a hunch the categories itself is really growing.  But when their new bike computers look more and more like smartphones, it begs the question if Apple can end up eating their lunch if they wanted to down the road. 

4
AndehM
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El Granada, CA, USA
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23 hours ago

One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material.  I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up.  We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit.  Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high.  The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.

4
MJT420
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142
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Location
Lake Ann, MI, USA
22 hours ago
AndehM wrote:
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material.  I work for a construction company, and we're...

One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material.  I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up.  We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit.  Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high.  The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.

I have a friend that works as a machinist in a non bike related industry and he said availability of aluminum is way down and when they can get it they're paying double to three times what they were paying even a couple of years ago.

4
kperras
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Location
CA
22 hours ago Edited Date/Time 14 hours ago

I believe it was mentioned here in the recent past, but one of the largest suppliers of raw alu stock is located in the UAE and their operations have been directly impacted by the Iran war. New supply routes overland aren't really a viable option for non-liquid material...

On the topic of the impact of data centers, this is certainly a thing. We wrapped up a battery project earlier this year and obtaining the chips required for the BMS was met with huge leadtimes due to the rapid proliferation of data centers. In the past, the automotive sector was to blame as well with the rise in electric cars, so the cycling industry gets punted to the back of the line once again. 

8
Losifer
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Location
Sandia Park, NM, USA
Fantasy
22 hours ago
63expert wrote:
💯💯💯The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world...

💯💯💯


The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world today. 

Carry the political discussion someplace else. 

Losifer wrote:

Global/international economic discussions cannot be apolitical in our current systems.

AndehM wrote:
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it.  If you talk to an investment...

It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it.  If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).

That's fair, I am not defending talking about political opinions/trolling, but politics are a factor in every aspect of our lives. To say, in a discussion of an industry that depends on global economics, that someone doesn't want any political talk is naive. 

This forum is certainly not a place for being a shitlord, but let's not kid ourselves. Politics are 100% part of the economic realities facing the bike industry.

2
Losifer
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Location
Sandia Park, NM, USA
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21 hours ago
Losifer wrote:

Global/international economic discussions cannot be apolitical in our current systems.

AndehM wrote:
It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it.  If you talk to an investment...

It's entirely possible to objectively discuss economic impact factors which originate from governments without being a shitlord troll about it.  If you talk to an investment advisor about what sectors and companies are facing headwinds, they do exactly that (the objective discussion, not reddit troll mode).

@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question...

@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question or observation, and it also ties back into the outdoor industry, this is a great place to do so. The line is pretty clear. 

 

I'm gonna assume you're not directing this at me.

NoahColorado
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410
Joined
8/1/2009
Location
Fruita, CO, USA
21 hours ago Edited Date/Time 21 hours ago
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. From this week...-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear -Bosch is moving its mobility unit to...

If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. 

From this week...

-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear 

-Bosch is moving its mobility unit to a wholly owned subsidiary starting in about 1 year. CEO Christian Fischer cited growing pressure from Asian competitors

-Garmin's fitness segment is crushing; 33% operating margin produced $231M of operating income

-Bids for Lapierre were due yesterday by noon.

-Another China brand enters worldtour level sponsor...TotalEnergies dropped Cube for Pardus (never heard of them) for a 3 year deal.

-VF Corp beat Q2 guidance, reaffirmed the FY guidance but inventories rose 7 y/y

Fox Factory reports next week btw. 

Each one of those headlines link to something if someone wants to jump in https://jeffbrines.com/newswire/

I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.

I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.

 

Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!

11
Friday
Posts
36
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4/25/2025
Location
Atlanta, GA, USA
21 hours ago
AndehM wrote:
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material.  I work for a construction company, and we're...

One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material.  I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up.  We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit.  Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high.  The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.

When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.

I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices. 

3
19 hours ago Edited Date/Time 19 hours ago
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. From this week...-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear -Bosch is moving its mobility unit to...

If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. 

From this week...

-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear 

-Bosch is moving its mobility unit to a wholly owned subsidiary starting in about 1 year. CEO Christian Fischer cited growing pressure from Asian competitors

-Garmin's fitness segment is crushing; 33% operating margin produced $231M of operating income

-Bids for Lapierre were due yesterday by noon.

-Another China brand enters worldtour level sponsor...TotalEnergies dropped Cube for Pardus (never heard of them) for a 3 year deal.

-VF Corp beat Q2 guidance, reaffirmed the FY guidance but inventories rose 7 y/y

Fox Factory reports next week btw. 

Each one of those headlines link to something if someone wants to jump in https://jeffbrines.com/newswire/

I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To...

I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.

I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.

 

Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!

Dropping out of eMTB entirely: "that's a bold move Cotton". 

It's conceivable eMTB will have a much shorter consumer upgrade cycle than analog bikes for a long time because of advancing battery tech. (not to mention removable battery/non-removable battery/range extender configs changing around with current battery tech) I'm totally comfortable owning my lifetime warranty crab link analog bike for 10 years. There's also many consumers that wouldn't be caught dead on an Amflow/Teewing/etc. and want a "real brand"/bike shop for their eMTB.

If said brand thinks they're safe because Amflow would never drop a $3k carbon analog bike...we shall see. My dad's Amflow just landed at our LBS yesterday. (former YT, Canyon eeb owner)

1
17 hours ago
You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing...

You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing those impacts objectively is absolutely fair game. But turning this thread into a debate over how terrible one politician or another is on the world stage isn't really where I hoped the conversation would go. There's plenty of room for that elsewhere.

Sorry I was feeling a little salty on a day where we were stoked that petrol prices had come down to the equivalent of USD $7.50ish / gallon. 

I won't distract from the bike talk any more........(but don't forget to vote 😋)

3
17 hours ago
You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing...

You guys are welcome to keep debating this stuff, but I'd prefer it didn't happen here. I recognize that politics impacts the bike industry, and discussing those impacts objectively is absolutely fair game. But turning this thread into a debate over how terrible one politician or another is on the world stage isn't really where I hoped the conversation would go. There's plenty of room for that elsewhere.

63expert wrote:
💯💯💯The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world...

💯💯💯


The politics bullshit is getting thick here. I involve myself with bicycles specifically as something that is fun vs. all the divisive bullshit in the world today. 

Carry the political discussion someplace else. 

Losifer wrote:

Global/international economic discussions cannot be apolitical in our current systems.

Then kill the thread. 

Tired of this bullshit 

14
sethimus
Posts
1006
Joined
9/20/2014
Location
CH
17 hours ago
@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question...

@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question or observation, and it also ties back into the outdoor industry, this is a great place to do so. The line is pretty clear. 

 

it wasn't me who brought up the totally irrelevant american perspective on standert bikes...

17
12 hours ago
If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. From this week...-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear -Bosch is moving its mobility unit to...

If we want something to talk about, my newswire probably has something. 

From this week...

-Shimano raises its outlook as inventories clear 

-Bosch is moving its mobility unit to a wholly owned subsidiary starting in about 1 year. CEO Christian Fischer cited growing pressure from Asian competitors

-Garmin's fitness segment is crushing; 33% operating margin produced $231M of operating income

-Bids for Lapierre were due yesterday by noon.

-Another China brand enters worldtour level sponsor...TotalEnergies dropped Cube for Pardus (never heard of them) for a 3 year deal.

-VF Corp beat Q2 guidance, reaffirmed the FY guidance but inventories rose 7 y/y

Fox Factory reports next week btw. 

Each one of those headlines link to something if someone wants to jump in https://jeffbrines.com/newswire/

I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To...

I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.

I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.

 

Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!

I ended up not having time to write out a post.  

But when the discussion was is bikes more like craft beer or auto the answer was a very odd in between.


In auto, outside of insane outside investment like Tesla, or china government (which is one and the same btw, Tesla would be broke if it weren’t for Chinese investment to sell Chinese made teslas to everywhere not the us) there is zero possibility for anyone to enter the industry and compete.  This means that industry is essentially left to compete with themselves.


What could change bikes to be more like auto is exactly that.  If the Asian factories decide to compete on one brand for world wide market share.  They could theoretically turn the bike world into something like dirt bikes where there are only a few players in the world.

I think it’s ultimately unlikely unless Chinese brands essentially force a lot of consolidation. Which I don’t think would be good for consumers or development in the long run.

1
Outlawed
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Location
Vancouver Island, BC, CA
Fantasy
11 hours ago
@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question...

@AndehM nailed it. If you need to blow off steam about the political environment, X, Threads and Facebook are excellent. If you have a genuine question or observation, and it also ties back into the outdoor industry, this is a great place to do so. The line is pretty clear. 

 

sethimus wrote:

it wasn't me who brought up the totally irrelevant american perspective on standert bikes...

Like a moth to a flame, you just cannot help yourself

14
1
onxx
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79
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Location
Laguna Beach, CA, USA
10 hours ago

As bike designs standardize (and the marketing BS of “our patented 4 bar is way better than their patented 4 bar” wears off) R&D produces diminishing returns. Less progress, less differentiation, for more money. This naturally favors bigger firms. 

Right now what’s happening is that firms that have developed actual structural advantages will be more able to persist and those that don’t are more likely to get squeezed out.  This isn’t related to micro brands like frameworks or whatever random bullshit sethimus is going to bring up next. That is pure fashion. I’m talking about for brands that need to sell thousands of units in order to keep the lights on.  The advantages I’m talking about are things like retail partners (floor space), manufacturing, etc.


Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes. Or a company like x-lab that can produce a bike at retail that’s half the cost and all the spec of the thing next to it on the floor because of their huge manufacturing capabilities. 

How does a company like Pivot, Yeti, Transition, etc compete in this world? It becomes increasingly difficult. Worse still for less established brands like revel, evil, GT etc. 

You can debate the strength of one brand over another or whatever, but like jeff.brines said,  amflow is now fox’s biggest customer. That’s a huge amount of market share they captured overnight. Because they are backed by a massive company that was able to do a huge R&D push to innovate and then bring those innovations to market at very attractive prices.  

What is jimmy’s cool bike brand going to do to respond to the market share they are losing? 5mm longer chainstays next year at 2x the cost of amflow/x-lab/etc? This is what people are talking about when they are saying there are too many brands. Why does brand X exist? Because they are cool guys who ride cool trails in this cool place? Not good enough outside of small fashion brands. Passion can only get you so far. 

3
jeff.brines
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1314
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Location
Grand Junction, CO, USA
3 hours ago

Life improvement hack: Screenshot 2026-10-30 at 5.44.20%E2%80%AFAM.png?VersionId=V4mPr2BQzZukzuwG

5
sethimus
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1006
Joined
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Location
CH
2 hours ago Edited Date/Time 2 hours ago

Think about specialized and their retail network. They can get a bike to a customer quickly, lots to choose from, and their bike shops are to some extent trusted partners that actually sell the bikes.

actually they can’t anymore. take their new crux gravel bike. sold out since introduction without any stock replenishment on the horizon. if a dealer didn’t preorder, they are out of luck. 

1 hour ago
I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To...

I'll bite on the "Pardus to World Tour" news. They've been on my radar for a few years as one of the first factories-turned-brands. To borrow Rick Vosper's terminology, this is another sign that Bike Industry 4.0 is coming. Factory-direct brands are the next evolution of consumer-direct brands.

I believe this trend will continue, and 2027 might be the first time it shows up big in MTB. It's already happened in road and gravel, as those products are a bit easier to engineer and market. Mountain bikes have had a bit of moat in that suspension performance, efficiency, and geometry protected them from being commodified. But the "crabification" of suspension designs and spec-sheet supremacy of drive-units (ie people wanting an "Avinox bike") is making it pretty easy to pitch a high-value, factory-direct eMTB. I've already heard of one brand dropping out of eMTB entirely and citing this.

 

Edit: I actually didn't realize that earlier this month Rick Vosper wrote about Bike 4.0, and it sounds like we're on the same page!

In some ways Bike 4.0 is already there for carbon rims and wheelset, Light bicycle, Farsport and many more xiamen factories are now well known reputable brand that people have no qualms buying from.

2
Losifer
Posts
416
Joined
9/12/2017
Location
Sandia Park, NM, USA
Fantasy
1 hour ago
AndehM wrote:
One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material.  I work for a construction company, and we're...

One thing I wonder is whether any of the aluminum frame manufacturers are having problems sourcing enough material.  I work for a construction company, and we're having a hell of a time sourcing smaller quantity / short lead time beams and pipe because the data center boom is gobbling it all up.  We use steel, but I'm sure aluminum is also hit.  Ironically, we're building tools like mad to be used to build DCs and rocket launch pads, but we're being told nothing is available for 3+ months out until the next mill roll, and prices are way up because demand is so high.  The US isn't the only country with the massive DC buildout, so I'm certain that the supply pinch extends to Asia as well.

Friday wrote:
When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because...

When I asked someone at Specialized why the Chisel FS was no longer being made they said that the higher end aluminum bikes are out because of tariffs.

I assume the margins are gone, and people wont buy an aluminum bike from a large brand for carbon prices. 

I've heard similar things from folks in the know. Which makes me wonder how a company like Marin is doing their Tam line- not apples to apples exactly, but fairly similar customer base. The Tam 2 especially seems like a great value. 

1

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