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Look, it seems to me that Luckey's primary motivation for this kind of wild speculation is to drive business to his ghoulish defense contracting company. I do agree with you that geopolitical expertise is often the domain of people with shaky track records, but also posit that any intelligence sources he's "privy" to might not be of the highest quality considering that his sources are probably a cadre of right-wing media grifters turned agency administrators in leadership roles at US intelligence and defense agencies that already have their own reliability issues.
I actually do consume a lot of information from sources with perspectives I disagree with, but I try to choose ones with a modicum of credibility. And guys like this, and most of their ilk, have none for me.
Sorry for the derailment. Back to lurking here for an early lead on potential closeout deals. Just kidding.
I disagree with much of what you say here, but it'll further derail this thread.
What matters in the context of this thread is there is a greater than 0% chance Taiwan is invaded in the near future. If that were to happen, it is very bad for the bike industry, and global economy. Christopher Neely (St. Louis Fed) paints the picture I most agree with economically (for those wondering) and its very (very) bad.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2025/feb/economic-effect…
Because some of the trail building I do is funded by big 5 military contractors (notice a theme here about massive consolidation?) my algorithmic news feeds are chock full of weapons industry PR. Normally it’s just press releases about new autonomous aircraft and “integrated kill meshes” but yesterday the mainstream press got in on the game;
3 year back orders and homeless employees
This article in Politico about challenges in the American Defense supply chain is actually pretty relevant if you want to start talking about re-shoring any bike manufacturing- and absolutely terrifying in the context of a Taiwan straight conflict. The “last supper” in 1993 that the defense contractors were invited to is incredibly relevant here as well. It was the massive consolidation in the military industrial complex in the early 90’s that created the American CNC’d component boom that terrified Shimano so much that they had to invent their own “skunkworks” to come up with XTR M950 (the gray stuff, with octalink and vbrakes).
My uncle is a retired 3 star and former ceo of one of the big defense contractors. Still is on the board of directors for a few of them. I’m not going to bother him for his opinion. But this lucky dude seems extremely young and out spoken to be much of a player in that industry. The majority of guys making decisions are in their 50s and 60s, spent a lot of time in the pentagon either in a military or civilian role and have zero inclination to step into the limelight. I’m sure their are outliers but going on Joe Rogan and speculating on ww3 doesn’t seem like the moves of someone highly credible in that world.
And I agree with everyone here that ww3 would be bad for the bike industry. But compared to all the other economic and political issues it’s going to be way down on the list of things you care about.
"Once you recognize that, you also have to accept that you are probably wrong a good chunk of the time too, which, frankly, makes saying anything at all a little cringe-inducing."
Indeed. I poopoo'ed tapered steerers and12x142, and I have no issue with Super Boost. Crow can be tasty when you season it right.
Shimano's latest for their first 9 months compared to same period last year (Bicycle Division)
*Sales up 5%
*Operating income down 27%
* Net profit (overall company) thus far is down 61% y/y.
Commentary
They are cautious on changes in trade policies around the world and "rising geopolitical risks" caused by prolonged international conflicts. They also cite a US economy that is showing signs of deceleration amid the "cooling sentiment due to rising prices stemming from tariff hikes and a slowdown in the labor market".
With respect to bikes, specifically, they are noting "While the strong interest in bicycles continued as a long-term trend, market inventories remained high in some regions, and inventory adjustments progressed in line with market trends in each region." and "In the North American market, retail sales of completed bicycles remained weak due to an uncertain economic outlook, but market inventories maintained appropriate levels."
Side point
Y'all do realize Anduril has real contracts, with real products actively deployed on the battlefield, and is valued over $33.5B, right? I know Palmer makes everyone's skin craw around here, but to continue to suggest he has no credibility in the DoD contracting space is a bit like saying Palantir isn't credible because Joe Londsdale or (to a lesser extent) Alex Karp is outspoken and unlike the legacy prime CEOs of the past. Like it or hate it, that's kind of the point. These guys are supposed to go break the old, bloated, wasteful cost-plus model of yesteryear with new software and hardware.
Reminds me of Pierre Sprey. The big players and decision makers in that world are stacking far too much paper to even consider podcasts.
Apologies if this has already been brought up, but Forge + Bond is now a pickleball paddle company.
Quite the pivot.
Guessing the warranty rate on pickleball paddles is a lot lower. 😂
<checks the date> nope, not april
You'd actually be surprised. As an avid pickler myself, I can tell you that warranty policy is a big factor when purchasing paddles. And like we've seen with carbon wheels, the expectation with premium paddles is a no-questions asked replacement – and paddles frequently have de-lamination issues between the face sheet and core. So, I'd expect a pretty high warranty claim rate.
how do you have time for pickleball with 19 bikes? :D
Since June I've had a lot of not-bike time on my hands...err, um hand. 🥴
oof. heal up.
side note, that looks like hardware from my old company / last job.
Please keep the rubber side down, you aren't getting any younger dude... 😉
Spouse is a PTA. Currently their #1 customer base are people with pickleball injuries. It became more humorous when the owner of her clinic became a patient due to it.
Big question is: How'd the guy's face look after?
Hopes the recovery is a speedy one!
Sounds like trouble for Eurobike going forward: https://ebike-mtb.com/en/the-end-of-eurobike-who-will-lead-the-bike-industry-now/
Two big German bicycle associations are pulling out although it's not entirely clear to me right now whether or not that means the show will be cancelled as a result. Can't say it's that surprising, though. The traditional trade show model has been dying an agonizingly slow death. The Taipei Show gets a little quieter every year and Taichung Bike Week was practically a ghost town this year.
I know the Sea Otter Classic is difficult to replicate, but it's a format that I see value in. Brands get to show off new stuff and interact with customers, the public can demo stuff, and there's tons of racing to keep things interesting.
Ok, this is probably one of the funniest things I've seen on an official bike website. YT USA going down too, no doubt.
https://www.yt-industries.com/en-us/demo-a-yt-bike/YT-MILL-Showroom/
Quick, someone screenshot all of that.
I got it on archive.org
https://web.archive.org/web/20251031163218/https://www.yt-industries.com/en-us/demo-a-yt-bike/YT-MILL-Showroom/
Doing the Lord's work.
They pulled it down, now. Feel so freaking bad for all the employees, but at least some of them didn't go quietly into that good night.
I'm an engineering manager in aerospace that spends a lot of time with customers at various DoD agencies. Can confirm that none of the people actually making decisions will ever go on a Podcast or any social media platform. The fact that he feels comfortable going on Joe Rogan and spewing all of that information just tells you that he is not privy to real information.
It is interesting, right? Places that make for good bike shows are inherently bad for bike riding (i.e. Vegas, Friedrichshafen, Taichung, etc) , and places that make for good bike riding are bad for trade shows (i.e. Whistler, Bellingham, etc). Sea Otter inhabits a weird middle ground where it's sort of bad for both (sunburns, rain, and lack of vendor amenities, and the riding is aggressively meh), but Sea Otter provides an acceptable-enough compromise to stick around year after year, durable and longstanding. Outerbike has tried to fill that gap, and Interbike tried to do that to varying degrees of success with Bootleg Canyon.
Whistler Crankworx has kinda scratched that itch, but because it's in the middle of the summer, it was never really a great time to unveil new stuff or drive a lot of buzz in new products. Plus, most people at Whistler either want to ride Whistler, or get over their hangover, and have a limited tolerance for trade show booths. Booths are more attractive when there is literally nothing else for bike people to do during the day, like Vegas, Friedrichshafen, or Taichung.
I think the other key thing about Sea Otter... it is consumer based, with the "tradeshow" doing on "behind the scenes". Its main focus externally and technically for the event is the consumer...not just the industry nerding out together. so makes for a bigger pull company wise, they get everything and everyone in one location, vs just other bike bros talking to each other.
anyone with a security clearance knows better than to do / say anything that could even be perceived as an intel risk.
Wait. For accuracy I have to call this out: two things can be true at once. The defense contracting world has historically been a stealthy, backroom deal making, hush hush industry and Silicon Valley types can buck that trend while still building legitimate business and being very important people at their respective companies.
To act like Palmer Luckey or someone like Alex Karp are not making real decisions because they show up on podcasts from time to time or come from tech is wrong. Palmer runs Anduril. Alex runs Palantir. Do you really think they do not influence outcomes at the companies they are CEO of? Do you really think they don't have at least some access to classified environments? Palantir is a major defense-software company with massive DoD contracts (listen to Alex speak on a pod/event here). Anduril has deployed systems on the battlefield, is the fastest growing company in military hardware, and is likely to go public soon(ish). Their last round valued them around $35 billion (and I would buy at that level.)
Yes, it is fashionable to hate on Rogan, and Palmer is an easy target. But most people I know would take their billion dollar+ payday and disappear, not spend some of their own wealth and all of their time trying to work with a challenging government entity (the DoD) on weapons systems. I take Palmer at face value when he says he cares about the country and that's his biggest motivating factor. Ultimately, we need faster, cheaper, more agile product development in the military, and Silicon Valley practices are worth borrowing. Hell, shameless story here but even I was even recruited to be COO of an Anduril competitor for that exact reason (ironically backed a founder of Palantir who kinda likes me).
One last thing: did anyone listen to the podcast? As someone who covered the primes for StreetAccount 10 years ago, I heard nothing close to sensitive information disclosed by Palmer. Yes, we were trained on what that might look like. Proof is in the pudding, there are no news stories suggesting otherwise in the news, and the news (like you guys) doesn't go easy on Palmer.
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Okay, back to bikes, maybe it was posted but supposedly Haro isn't done https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/10/29/haro-adjusting-us-markets-changing-landscape
"The Haro brand is not shutting down nor pausing, CEO Bjarke Rasmussen told BRAIN, but it did cut its U.S. staff by about a third in the spring and reorganized its sales staff to adjust to a turbulent U.S. market affected by tariffs.
"The U.S. remains an important part of Haro's brand identity, and we're still fully committed to our facility in Vista and our dealers," Rasmussen said in an email following a tip from a Haro retailer that the brand might be on the verge of closing."
Here's the official, non-meme statement from YT USA:
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Thank you from YT Industries USA
Dear YT Family,
After eight incredible years of serving riders across North America, we want to share some difficult news. Despite our best efforts, YT Industries USA and YT Industries Germany have not been able to reach an agreement on future operations. As a result, YT Industries USA will be closing its business.
This is not a decision we made lightly. From day one, our mission has been to bring the YT spirit—performance, creativity, and community—to riders all over North America. Together, we’ve built something special: a passionate community of riders, racers, and fans who share the same love for good times on two wheels.
We are deeply grateful to everyone who has supported YT USA—our customers, our staff, our riders, our partners and our counterparts across the globe. You’ve helped make these years unforgettable, and we’re proud of what we achieved together.
From all of us at YT Industries USA: thank you for your trust, your energy, and your support. It has been an honor to ride with you.
Sincerely,
The YT Industries USA Team
Damn.. Hopefully there's some deals on a steel dirt love...
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