Hello Vital MTB Visitor,
We’re conducting a survey and would appreciate your input. Your answers will help Vital and the MTB industry better understand what riders like you want. Survey results will be used to recognize top brands. Make your voice heard!
Five lucky people will be selected at random to win a Vital MTB t-shirt.
Thanks in advance,
The Vital MTB Crew
My analysis is just about done, but for those hankering to get a jump on things, here are Fox's results./ and the conference call can be found here (or just wait a few hours and I'll post my thing...)
That Float X2 debacle escalated quickly... Holy moly.
Canyon bikes also suffering: According to GBL's half-year report, Canyon recorded a turnover of 398 million euros in the first half of 2025, which corresponds to a decline of around 5% compared to the previous year. The company also reported a loss of €5 million, compared to a loss of €0.4 million in the previous year. GBL, the owner of 49,9% of Canyon only has €261m of the originally invested €400m still on its books, which corresponds to a depreciation of 35%.
Leatt sales jump 61% in Q2
South African protective gear brand Leatt reported a 61% year-on-year increase in its second quarter revenue, totalling US$16.2 million. This marks the company’s fourth consecutive quarter of growth.
The company's helmet sales increased 117%, while parts and accessories saw 65% growth in the last three months. Leatt's direct-to-consumer sales rose 35%, while US dealer-direct revenue for MTB and motocross products also increased 45% in the same time period.
Source: https://escapecollective.com/dailynews/#leatt-sales-jump-61-in-q2
Fox Factory Q2 Results - My analysis.
//Blog
//Substack
I know @sspomer may post this in it's entirty seperately (or here) which I'm (obviously) cool with.
Also, this graphic is relevent so I'm posting it as a stand alone.
I liked the general analogy of 'palate fatigue' with your BMX monster. It touches on a point that I thought was oddly relevant. I forget who said it, sadly. But they basically said, the MTB industry isn't sure where to go in terms of innovation and current customers have just about NO reason to upgrade. (The only sector that can kick this trend being e-bikes, which is a good helpful thing but in terms of cost still niche in the broader bike market I suppose.)
But within the context of like 1x drivetrains, dropper posts, switching to 29er and now MX wheels, the general 'fixing' of geometry in various ways, and then just outright durability I suppose... It's hard to see what the industry has to offer customers with let's just say a 2020-2025 bike. Unless they're willing to buy an e-bike.
I suppose wireless stuff is cool. In-frame storage is... Something. (Casually ignoring headset cable routing, which is a whole other point that reminds me many brands are now going backwards in geometry numbers, ie diminishing returns.) Uhhh electronic suspension? Though I never see anyone with that. Uhhh tires that are good enough to not require inserts? (Not even a frame-related feature.) Turning flip chips into 'MX chips' lol. I dunno. Somebody else can chime in with reasons they are interested in 2025 models (outside of just being e-bikes that don't suck, which is rad).
Thanks Jeff, really enjoy your analysis and appreciate the time you take to research and write them!
I agree, incentive is limited. I'm actually a sucker for rad paint jobs, and nobody is doing anything remotely cool these days on that front. Where the hell are the fades, splatters, metallics, neon colors, etc. No originality at all. Please drop some acid and get back to me.
Weight reduction will be a big one. Quite a few brands have swung to the heavy side. It's time for a correction.
All the concepts are out there but not all of them are put together in a single package. Lots of bikes are very decent but are also not totally dialed.
Take for example, the new Fuel. Pretty good looking bike but if you’re a large it has a 75* effective seat tube and I’m pretty sure, super short seat stays. The next gen could fix that. Not that every bike should be the same, but that kind of plays to my point. People don’t have access to every single bike on the market, so they may have to wait for the brands they have access to to update.
I’ve had four bikes since 2020 and I’m really looking forward to a new release next year as it seems to solve a lot of problems of all the last few bikes I’ve had. I actually think bikes are going to get really dialed now that they aren’t just trying to figure out geometry.
May not affect the average purchaser, as bikes are good. But people did say bikes were good 20 years ago.
(if Orbea releases one more lower tier of the new Rallon, or even crazier a budget alloy version, with some features ripped out likely, they win MTBing in 2025 and deserve it... I mean they still win with their custom build format but nearly 6k barrier to entry means most people, such as myself, will never experience such a monster rig)
(new Trek Fuels are cool but as usual colors are meh and build values are meh compared to other brands... and lets casually ignore weight lol)
Santa Cruz is taking inspiration from Crestline and doing a 100 unit Bullit with a custom fleck/splatter paint job. Earns some points for custom painting the brakes. I’m sure it will only cost $14k or something. 🤣
We definitely seem to be hitting a bit of a plateau on development.. Maybe new materials or processes can bring down weight a bit, but currently between things like down tube storage and a higher expectation of what is considered "normal use" I don't see current bikes dropping weight. People talk about weight on the new Fuel... Alloy frame, a 38, somewhat beefy tires, and a coil shock? Yeah, that's not going to be light..
Geometry seems to be settling in on some similar numbers with a lot of companies getting to be within a few degrees/millimeters of each other.. At least there's enough difference to find something that suits an individual's needs, wants or desires..
So, what will be the next big evolution?
Giant QUIETLY dropping a new X2 Trance build: https://www.giant-bicycles.com/us/trance-x-2-2024
I'm not sure how to add bike models to Vital so... There's the link. Also not sure how to react to it being called '2024'. BELIEVE me I would have noticed if it had been around for nearly 2 years lol, I make spread sheets about budget bikes (and shitty youtube videos about em).
Not only that, as I haven't seen that posted anywhere, but I just saw someone post a red Giant Trance that looks like that model build, but factory red paint. It was a 'new bike day' post looked clean straight from the shop so doubt it was like the previous X 1 model with a powdercoat job but who knows.
Def a fan of the blacked out version with base Fox/Deore build for 3k. Quite a bit better than an Xfusion spec Trek/Speshy for the same price.
That X 1 build tested/reviewed at ~34 pounds so I imagine this cheaper model is at most 35, but not sure.
I'm thinking we'll be seeing a new short travel Trance in the near future... Almost none of them showing on the website.. The Trance X got a redo last not long ago, so I'd think the Trance would be next..
Don't want to be that guy, but can we get back to topic please.
thresh hungers for more companies. bring me the next victim! i must feast on at least one more bankruptcy before this thread becomes objectively obsolete as Mr Brines has specified 24 months on 10/3/2023 lol
I've been buying and hailing their helmets for years now. And up until now, have been able to find them discounted whenever I need a new one. Maybe time to buy 2 or 3 more?! The Turbine system just works A LOT better for my head (since I'm always EXACTLY between a M / L, I think). I wonder if everyone else is catching-on that the turbine system is more comfortable?
I feel the Same, Love my leatt stuff, especially my gravity 4.0 v22
Also the same, the Leatt stuff works amazingly for me, and with all the doom and gloom in the bike industry these days, it's great to see a company going well.
I do wish that ADU was still the importer though, I always got on well with that crew and found their product support above average.
Who's the new NZ importer? Leatt vanished for a bit in NZ
Well, after ADU's warehouse burnt down, while they were trying to get back up and running, it looks like Bike Corp from Aussie swung in and grabbed Leatt. They don't seem to have the same market penetration that ADU had?
But like I said ADU were pretty damn good at supporting the dealers and products.
Interesting news from Giant today, in the context of the discussion in this thread; they've just dropped a bike park edition Reign for Canada, Germany, and Australia only. Feels like it has something to do with frame/parts availability and projected interest for this type of bike, or something like that. https://www.vitalmtb.com/news/press-release/giant-introduces-all-new-reign-se-can-ger-aus-only
Or all the us models are already bought for rentals. Giant still has a couple rental fleets over here and they used to be one of the biggest in that market.
don't wanna go into a whole rant but... how is this different from their normal Reign? 10mm upfork?
at least the SX was 'niche' with a dual crown fork. Or is it just a colorway now? not a bad bike just sayin. not entirely sure who this markets to. I guess just the bro asking for cool paint earlier. which is valid
I vote Vital locks this thread on 10/3 and we get a new thread less depressingly called Industry News or something.
i was gonna go with a title that rolls off the tongue like 'Jeff Brines megathread for riders who want to understand the bike industry, and general economic advice regarding the market too'
I read quickly over your analysis and am wondering if all that OEM-product, that is possibly sitting in warehouses is already paid for? I don't know how the industry works but is it possible that big bike manufacturers are owing fox and other component companies money for product that isn't sold (yet)?
I can't comment on Fox, but the big brands, specialized and Trek pay Shimano in installments after they get the product, so pretty standard credit lines.
It's detailed in shimano's reporting, they declare their accounts outstanding, the bigger the customer the better credit terms is the standard.
There was rumours that Trek were in arrears for payments to Shimano over the last 6 months, due to them having excess inventories they can't shift.
So it could be in the books, but not in the bank. I guess if it was worrisome - in Fox case - they would have reported it.
Ah! Good question.
What we are talking about here is "accounts receivable" or "AR". This is a balance sheet item. Those wondering, Fox reported accounts receivable as of 4-Jul of $185M. If anyone wants to play along at home, this is one of the first things on the "balance sheet" part of the press release (under assets).
For those who don't know how AR works, a customer (say, Trek) will generally get terms from the vendor (Fox), which stipulates how quickly they need to pay their invoice. Often there is a discount (like 1%) if its paid super fast (10 days), no fee if its paid within ~30-45 days and then interest thereafter (2% a month).
One calculation often used by accountants and finance nerds like me is DSO, or days sales outstanding. DSO = (AR / Net Sales) x number of days in period. So in this case, ($185.4/374.9) * 91 = 45 - This means it takes about 45 days to collect after a sale. I dug around, the last 10 quarters have seen DSO range from 39-47 days, which is a fair range. If we saw the DSO number creep up materially over time it would suggest that there might be a broader credit issue in the space. I don't see that.
Final point, with respect to any vendor as large as Fox there will always be a portion of AR that becomes "questionable" or "doubtful". This is the amount they don't expect to collect, or its doubtful they collect. They don't disclose this in their press release, but I believe they do in their annual filing (and maybe their quarterly filing). I'll go poke around later, but honestly, I don't anticipate finding anything all that shocking.
TL;DR, It appears customers are paying Fox for products purchased in about 45 days.
Post a reply to: The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread