The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

4/30/2026 3:31pm
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

I'm going to guess money... When you say a company of their size, how big are they? On the other hand, with a blank check and a...

I'm going to guess money... When you say a company of their size, how big are they? 

On the other hand, with a blank check and a commitment to moving product,  there might be an opportunity for you..

I would say they are pretty boutique. They don't even have an e bike. I'd bet they're bottom 15% of units moved by brands not invited to MADE. 

2
Primoz
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4/30/2026 11:51pm Edited Date/Time 4/30/2026 11:53pm
lewzz10 wrote:

MGU is the next logical step for them, you'd have to think it was coming.

TEAMROBOT wrote:
The biggest downsides of MGU are cost and drag. Avinox/Amflow seem to be in a great position to overcome both of those problems. Their scale, rapid...

The biggest downsides of MGU are cost and drag. Avinox/Amflow seem to be in a great position to overcome both of those problems. Their scale, rapid development process, subsidized Capex, and direct-to-customer model will all help keep costs down for the customer. On the drag side of the equation, 1500 watts and 800% assist means they have a few extra watts to burn compared to a human powered MGU or one of their ebike competitors.

This is probably a question for another thread, but I'm wondering if meshing gears have a relatively fixed amount of drag at various levels of input power (sprinting vs. soft pedaling), or whether the drag spikes hard when power goes up. I remember Hammerschmidt was terrible for sprinting, and I know that's one of the arguments for belts vs. chains (chains have exponentially increased drag at higher input watts whereas belts are more linear). That's important for Amflow/Avinox, because if an MGU with meshing gears produces 10x more drag when you double power, it will be hard to make that viable for a 1500 watt ebike. On the other hand, I'm certain the engineers in Shenzhen are smarter than me.

I forgot Pinion uses the name Motor-Gearbox-Unit, here I am thinking everyone was talking about Motor-GENERATOR- Units 😅I would love to see someone make a crack...

I forgot Pinion uses the name Motor-Gearbox-Unit, here I am thinking everyone was talking about Motor-GENERATOR- Units 😅

I would love to see someone make a crack at harvesting energy from braking or the suspension - I figure it could be a small equaliser for heavier riders who would normally have much less battery range available

 

And @jeff.brines maybe we do need an Avinox thread, I was reading through all this and thought it was the ebike thread.....😬

Not worth it. Not on a bicycle. Maybe on a cargo/commuter bike, for pleasure mountain bikes the problems are far greater than the benefits it would bring. 

3
Teknik
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5/1/2026 3:01am

The 8-hour training actually makes perfect sense if you think about it. If you’re going to force a 12-year-old to commute electrically assisted/throttled in a 6-inch painted gutter next to 5,000lb distracted SUVs going 50mph, they probably need Stroad-warrior level tactical training.

Why build a protected bike path for $1M when you can just blame the kids for not having a Ebike Safety Certificate while they dodge F-150s?

11
mickey
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Roanoke, VA US
5/1/2026 4:36am
Teknik wrote:
The 8-hour training actually makes perfect sense if you think about it. If you’re going to force a 12-year-old to commute electrically assisted/throttled in a 6-inch...

The 8-hour training actually makes perfect sense if you think about it. If you’re going to force a 12-year-old to commute electrically assisted/throttled in a 6-inch painted gutter next to 5,000lb distracted SUVs going 50mph, they probably need Stroad-warrior level tactical training.

Why build a protected bike path for $1M when you can just blame the kids for not having a Ebike Safety Certificate while they dodge F-150s?

You are not wrong.

If People For Bikes spent 1/4 as much advocating for safe routes to school as they did lobbying for Ebike access in skeptical communities, the shrinking American bicycle market might be expanding.  Instead we seem laser focused on selling stuff to the same 10% of the population over and over again, each time with an extra battery or two.  

 

16
1
5/1/2026 5:07am
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

I'm going to guess money... When you say a company of their size, how big are they? On the other hand, with a blank check and a...

I'm going to guess money... When you say a company of their size, how big are they? 

On the other hand, with a blank check and a commitment to moving product,  there might be an opportunity for you..

I would say they are pretty boutique. They don't even have an e bike. I'd bet they're bottom 15% of units moved by brands not invited...

I would say they are pretty boutique. They don't even have an e bike. I'd bet they're bottom 15% of units moved by brands not invited to MADE. 

Exactly... So, I would guess that the costs of setting up something here doesn't justify the benefits to the company.. Yes, I wouldn't mind a Madonna and a Yella if a DH bike  was in the cards for me...

2
5/1/2026 11:41am
I'm going to guess money... When you say a company of their size, how big are they? On the other hand, with a blank check and a...

I'm going to guess money... When you say a company of their size, how big are they? 

On the other hand, with a blank check and a commitment to moving product,  there might be an opportunity for you..

I would say they are pretty boutique. They don't even have an e bike. I'd bet they're bottom 15% of units moved by brands not invited...

I would say they are pretty boutique. They don't even have an e bike. I'd bet they're bottom 15% of units moved by brands not invited to MADE. 

Exactly... So, I would guess that the costs of setting up something here doesn't justify the benefits to the company.. Yes, I wouldn't mind a Madonna...

Exactly... So, I would guess that the costs of setting up something here doesn't justify the benefits to the company.. Yes, I wouldn't mind a Madonna and a Yella if a DH bike  was in the cards for me...

My point is even at that size they could likely make it worth their while expanding here as they are popular. Or at least that is my hypothesis and I want to hear what people familiar with distribution think.

5/1/2026 6:09pm
Teknik wrote:
The 8-hour training actually makes perfect sense if you think about it. If you’re going to force a 12-year-old to commute electrically assisted/throttled in a 6-inch...

The 8-hour training actually makes perfect sense if you think about it. If you’re going to force a 12-year-old to commute electrically assisted/throttled in a 6-inch painted gutter next to 5,000lb distracted SUVs going 50mph, they probably need Stroad-warrior level tactical training.

Why build a protected bike path for $1M when you can just blame the kids for not having a Ebike Safety Certificate while they dodge F-150s?

mickey wrote:
You are not wrong.If People For Bikes spent 1/4 as much advocating for safe routes to school as they did lobbying for Ebike access in skeptical...

You are not wrong.

If People For Bikes spent 1/4 as much advocating for safe routes to school as they did lobbying for Ebike access in skeptical communities, the shrinking American bicycle market might be expanding.  Instead we seem laser focused on selling stuff to the same 10% of the population over and over again, each time with an extra battery or two.  

 

This 1000%.  I'm sure a lot of you know this, but a crucial piece of information is that "People for Bikes" is only "people" in the Mitt Romney sense of the word.  It's a lobbying organization for bike companies, which explains a lot of the ebike legislation that has been passed in many states.

The other old grumpy people will get this reference, which is what that moniker for an industry lobbying group always makes me think of.

Thank You for Smoking (2005) – The Goods: Film Reviews

 

5
1
Digit Bikes
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Location
Irvine, CA US
5/2/2026 4:40am Edited Date/Time 5/3/2026 4:56am

Earlier this year I went to People For Bikes’ Bicycle Leadership Conference. I’m not a PFB member, I don’t feel like a shill for them, but I have an in person experience which seems relevant to this:

I learned that they feel that e-motos pose an urgent threat to existing routes to schools, etc. They’re still supporting new routes, but are focused on supporting existing routes - because there’s a risk that reaction to reckless e-moto users could jeopardize all bicycle access to bike paths. Undoing PFB’s previous efforts. 

PFB seemed eager to have e-motos regulated as motorcycles, and the motorcycle industry equivalent of PFB who were in attendance seemed eager to own that segment and to require (sell) insurance and DOT helmets.

A senator in attendance said there are federal, state and local bills under consideration already, apparently with bipartisan support.

All wanted e-motos to be seen as something other than a bicycle. They’re appealing to the Associated Press to encourage the term e-moto for anything that doesn’t comply 100% with class 1,2,3. And they’re working toward clarified federal definitions of the classes.

I’m sure PFB have much better info available on their website. I don’t have a dog in the fight so I might not have ingested every detail.

Edit: Recently, a few parents have been sued for reckless endangerment of their kids for allowing them e-motos. I’m not sure if it’s related, but I suspect that it might be. 

14
jazza_wil
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whistler, BC CA
5/2/2026 5:30am

Yt Canada back in action 

IMG 3845
1
1
5/4/2026 3:44am

Mother charged with Manslaughter 


 

LAKE FOREST, Calif. (KABC) -- An Orange County mother is facing an additional charge of involuntary manslaughter after the death of an 81-year-old man, who had been hit by an electric motorcycle driven by her teen son.

Ed Ashman, an 81-year-old Vietnam War veteran and a beloved substitute teacher, died on Thursday, two weeks after being hit by an e-motorcycle while walking home from work at El Toro High School in Lake Forest.

Prosecutors say the woman, identified as 50-year-old Tommi Jo Mejer, was warned about letting her 14-year-old son illegally ride the e-motorcycle before the crash.

"An American hero who survived flying combat missions in Vietnam could not survive walking across the street in Lake Forest because of a 14-year-old child who was allowed to ride an E-Motorcycle that he should have never been riding," said Orange County District Attorney Todd Spitzer in a statement. "This mother essentially handed her 14-year-old son a deadly weapon, and despite multiple warnings of the dangers, continued to let him illegally ride an E-Motorcycle until he finally killed someone."

The crash happened on April 16. Investigators say Mejer's son was riding a Surron e-motorcycle, "doing wheelies" outside of El Toro High School, when he crashed into Ashman.
 

7
5/4/2026 6:40am
Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America...

Sorry to be off topic in the DJI thread, but this new Raaw has me curious about their distribution. I see a few in North America and they are almost universally loved. I bet they could have an even bigger presence here if shipping them here wasn't such a pain in the ass.

Is there a reason they don't have North American distribution beyond the normal Cheeto tariff uncertainty? Realistically would it be a viable option for a brand of their size to ship some of their frames directly to North America? I am not saying set up an in house warehouse but there has to be someone sending and warehousing bikes on that route that they could glom onto in a way that is viable to expand their presence here. I assume they are (rightfully) hesitant to expose themselves to the growing pains other brands have experienced since Covid.

Thank you all for the interest in our bikes and in our distribution / sales model. To give you a bit of context, we’re currently a team of 9 people at RAAW, based in Germany, and we ship worldwide directly from here.

The US has actually grown into our biggest market after Germany, which is pretty wild considering that every RAAW in the US has been shipped individually from Germany.

Our goal is, of course, to make the ordering process and ownership experience as easy as possible. Having stock in the US would be ideal, but that comes with a number of major steps that we’re not quite ready for yet. For now, we focus on making direct ordering as simple and transparent as possible.

When you order a RAAW, you pay for the product and shipping upfront. Taxes and duties are then paid upon arrival to the forwarding / shipping company, not to us. We include all the necessary documentation for US customs. It’s difficult to state the exact import costs, but we provide an estimate here: RaawmtbTaxes & Duties. Current tariffs are applied on top of that.

We try to be as proactive and transparent as possible, and for the majority of our US customers, this system works really well. We’re also able to supply spare parts at relatively low cost with quick shipping times.

Direct sales are our main channel, but we also have a growing network of bike shops participating in our “RAAW on Demand” program. This isn’t a traditional dealership model, but it allows shops to build a RAAW for a customer, earn a margin on the frame, and sell the complete bike.

We hope this helps clarify how we operate and how we serve customers in the US. Seeing the growing community of RAAW riders over there is incredibly exciting, and we’re definitely working toward a strong long-term solution.

55
mickey
Posts
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6 hours ago Edited Date/Time 6 hours ago

Lynskey has been a failure since day one.  They have been regularly selling frames below the market price of raw materials for more than a decade.  They really need to hang it up and leave making Ti bikes in Chattanooga to literally, everyone else in that town doing it better.

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