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Just curious, who’s actually doing this forecasts/market analysis? These reports are worth skimming, but they’re often wrong. I usually check a handful of market research and industry sources a few times a year, then piece them together to get a rough picture. Most of the detailed stuff is paywalled/can't get it (McKinsey, etc.), and the public-facing numbers are pretty surface-level (but still worth the time).
Those interested, check out Statista, PeopleForBikes (via the FT), Show Daily, Houlihan Lokey/Kearney, Mordor Intelligence, Expert MR, Grand View Research etc. Just start googling/using LLMs (but check them, they are often wrong). You’ll see different results across the board. Data collection is opaque, usually a mix of trade association sales numbers, company financials, government stats, customs/import data, plus input from distributors and retailers, then wrapped up into a model. The headline figure is almost always a CAGR, and depending on the report, that comes in anywhere from 4–11% over the next 5–10 years. That’s for all bikes, not just mountain or specialty segments. Also worth looking at is where they started their forecast and what their base assumptions were and where they end their forecast.
Forecasting whole markets or economies is messy. Hell, even forecasting cash flow for a company you know inside-out can be a struggle. Too many variables, and multivariable predictions rarely hold up cleanly.
For fun, here are the usual drivers cited in these reports - nothing shocking to this group I'm sure:
Tailwinds: e-bike adoption, infrastructure investment, urban mobility, government incentives, health and fitness trends.
Headwinds: post-COVID inventory hangover, tariffs, geopolitical turbulence, flat demand in mature markets, and high upfront e-bike costs.
Yeah, totally get this is n=1 of many and probably not representative of the whole picture. The data were from the paid version of Statista (published by 'Statista Research Department' based on April 2024 modelling. The trends may be way off but it was interesting to see some of the prior data. The worldwide bike market seemingly went up 1.5x during the pandemic but stalled/regressed to 2023.
To clarify somewhat, they project growth into 2029 but it's even slower than at any point pre-pandemic. In the US specifically they show huge growth in revenue in 2020, negative 2021, pretty big in 2022, but then slipping to single figures in 2023 and continuing to fall out to near zero in 2029.
Preach. Even in Bentonville, which has pretty much built the town with cycling in mind with tons of greenway, singletrack, and bike lanes... I know people who commute and have been hit and/or are nearly hit frequently. The main issue seems to be (specifically in bike lanes) with cars pulling out onto the road on which the bike lanes exist. The driver of the car is in a hurry, sees a break in car traffic, and pulls out without noticing that a cyclist is also approaching in the bike lane.
Derailment: almost hit a cyclist recently in the same way, but it was because they were ON THE SIDEWALK (which is obscured by trees/bushes) instead of the bike lane. I almost educated them on why they should ride in the bike lane instead of the sidewalk, but decided not to waste my breath.
Big issue with accidents like that is car drivers tend to look for other cars and not bikes..
I've done well cycling in LA, with the very simple method of assuming every car can not see me or outright intends to hit me. That said, I don't imagine it's a sustainable mental health strategy.
I have a lovely little video of a common bike lane experience in Los Angeles for those who need a chuckle on a Monday morning: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/FHO1cXkJYdw
Reminds me of this quote from Neil Stephenson's "Zodiac" about riding in Boston: "I assume I’m wearing fluorescent clothes, and there’s a million-dollar bounty going to the first driver who manages to hit me. And I ride on this assumption."
I take my kid to pre-K on an e-cargo bike, school is .6 miles away and this morning were were almost hit on a residential street by a guy pulling out of his driveway from behind another car, he was looking down at what I assume was his phone, just rolled on out of his driveway without looking.
Nice, I tried to capture a similar experience in Culver City: https://www.instagram.com/p/CrEbh-qtEcD/
My brother's advice to me was to "assume every driver is actively trying to kill you," and I try to live by that. Same idea as the Neil Stephenson quote above.
Regarding forecasts, I'm surprised to see any forecast that shows bicycle sale volume (by units sold) going down in North America and Europe through 2030.I've gotten on my soapbox before in this thread, but I think the bike industry looks safe and healthy to me because of the global interest in re-investing in non-vehicular transportation. Lots of cities across the world are investing as fast as they can in sidewalks, bikelanes, buses, trains, and closing off streets to cars, and bikes are a huge part of the formula. Modern cities simply don't work with everyone needing to take a single-passenger car everywhere, and as the entire world's population is moving to cities, this is only becoming more and more of an issue.
I'm not in a large city but I am in a place that HATES cyclists.
Any riding I do near cars/trucks (mtb or road/commuter) I approach in a similar way: I'm not going to trust anyone or anything and I will make it impossible for anyone to cause a problem for me.
The last time I trusted a motorist, I was strapped in on my fixed gear and they hit me from behind as I was turning left from a left turn lane and they were going straight. They'd have had to swerve at me to hit me...so they did. They caught my back wheel and swept it out from underneath me. Luckily (ha!) I was wearing shorts so my shin/calf skin caught the street surface, pulled me out of the straps, and stood me up onto my feet. I was bloody from my knee down and had a huge scuff on my shoe but I didn't even get my shirt dirty. The car sped away before I could catch their plates.
I take as much control as possible over my outcome and make it as hard as I can for a person to fuck up my day.
The best advice I ever got was when I got my first motorcycle.. Ride as if you are invisible. I use this anytime I am on the road, bicycle or motorcycle.
Believe it when I see it. Portland (know you lived there before) could easily close it’s greenways to all but local traffic. Won’t ever happen cause the people who live in those houses and apartments will push back against it and it would never be properly enforced anyways. Some dick head in a car will just use it as a short cut religiously.
so you’re left with closing the street to all traffic. Which the people who live there will absolutely be against. Nobody wants to pay 300k - million for a home they can’t park at.
So you are left with a giant mish mash of greenways, bike lanes, and bike paths. And to be honest it’s not always the drivers fault. Seen plenty of accidents from scared cyclists over reacting to a car in its lane that came close to a bike lane or a cyclist running a stop sign after a big climb or badly signed intersection. Just bikes and cars cannot share the same space safely. Always going to be too much user error whether it’s accidental or intentionally selfish. And I don’t see any real political movement from either the industry or cyclists that will outweigh the desires of the auto industry and drivers. Especially in todays environment where the politics of biking in america is not even on the list of things the vast majority of people remotely care about. And politicians are more likely to waste money on Elon’s boring company than to invest in something that’s actually going to improve the lives of their constituents. (Looking at you Nashville)
Moving aside from commuter talk, if you go to Europe you will see why ebikes have become so incredibly popular, and it's because they have real mountains really close.
Holidaying in the Alpes, or any mountain region for that matter, is incredibly popular, and hiking and riding is merging into e-bike sales now. It's crazy how many people are riding around on "fire trails" in the Alpes just casually. Normal people have to use an e-bike for this, they will climb 1200m+ in a day easily.
America has massive ebike access issues still, and most people don't live near mountains, and would have to fly to them. The majority of Europe live within a 3 hour train ride of massive mountains with huge networks of trails and paths, all established long ago for the hiking and nature walking communities that have dominated tourism in the region for decades.
I'm assuming we're just talking about eMTBs? Because SoCal (maybe all of California) is FULL of ebikes now. They are beginning to outnumber normal bicycles, no joke. Particularly in the affluent, coastal areas.
I think a lot of it is about culture and mindset. I don't like riding on the roads here in the UK, too many idiots on the road, but overall it's pretty safe in places like the Netherlands where cycling is much more part of the culture.
https://www.instagram.com/the_yt_mill_bentonville/p/DNimKDnxf97/
It's both US mills by the way. And they are 'extending and honoring the prices until the bikes are gone'.
I suppose it's taboo to use the L word... But it has the appearance of a full on liquidation sale.
Obviously, scratching for capital to square debts and get in to a position to actually order bikes but... The amount of bikes going at ~50% is insane.
Would have loved if there were some DJers or core 1 DH bikes at these prices but... Those bikes actually sell, I suppose. Dangit lol
7 Anna (NS Bikes owner) filed for bankruptcy
https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/spoleczenstwo/2311741,1,poobijane-rondle-polska-ikona-rowerowa-zlozyla-wniosek-o-upadlosc.read (Polish)
"Another blow to the Polish company was the fraud that was made against another German contractor. The company transferred money for bicycles instead of to a 7Anna account is a hacker’s account. The trail after him broke in Portugal. Just like after money."
Plus they are looking for some kind of buyout/investor... Not sure how optimistic that line is in their position/country/etc.
It's interesting to hear how companies paid '~double' for product during covid, seemingly bidding for production or something, and these vendors/suppliers that set up these practices are now likely losing customers left and right and may suffer under the same attrition. There's kinda somethin chicken or the egg about it all. Like I'm wondering which companies DIDN'T play that little game, waited out the storm, are now back buying at normal prices, and basically coasted through the whole hellscape. Norco? Didn't hear much about them and their model line up is impressive. I feel like if even Trek and Giant had struggles... No one got out unscathed. Spesh? Hmm
Ages ago back when I first started to riding to work, a friend gave me similar/the best advice for riding on roads. "Assume everyone is unintentionally trying to kill you and will make the worst decision at the worst time." That's kept me upright in the decades since (bike or moto) and was one bit of advice I emphasized to every new messenger who shadowed me back in my #messlife days.
Kinda suspected something was up. It explains why they have frames for dirt cheap over on bikesonline.com.
Every friend of mine who has ever commuted on bike was doored at least once here. As a biker, you can't really protect yourself with forward thinking and anticipation of others' actions because Massholes will be Massholes.
can please stay on topic and stop the commuter-talk
thx guys
Thread still coming in clutch in the waning hours of the 24 month period. Still two months to go though!
Not surprised by NS Bikes. Maybe there were lots more in Europe, but I feel like there was a decent presence here in BC a couple years ago. They had a few hype bikes such as the collaboration with flybikeasia/carbonda 'downcountry' bike (Synonym) but then it seems like they totally fell by the wayside in the most recent reiteration of generations. Doesn't help that their Canadian distro shut down a little while ago either.
Edit: Losing CRC as a distribution channel must have been a real kick in the teeth. I have to assume that's whose been referenced in the release as the major distributor going bust.
Lama Cycles were the Canadian (maybe even North American) distro and also went under in March.
@jeff.brines are you tracking tariff related price increases and potential impact on sales? Looks like companies are finally running out of inventory and have started increasing prices based on new import taxes (RockShox Boxxer Ultimate now $2099, Troy Lee D4 now $667, etc).
Lama seems to be back up and running again.
It's nice to see Nukeproof seemingly 'back' after all the rumors.
Should... Should we start a new thread? Which companies will RETURN in the next 12-24 months!?
Still sad they probly don't bring back the glory that was Vitus budget builds and Ragley hardtails. Those Ragleys were siiick.
I've received emails from most component suppliers that they've raised prices 10-15%. Others who didn't send notices seem to have raised prices quietly. New product launches and updates are often price increases in disguise.
The owner of Revel bikes was on national radio a few days ago saying that they'll show tariffs as line item at checkout, kinda like sales taxes. Beyond Revel, the story was of how US businesses who held off on price increases during the 90 day negotiation period are now resigned to raising prices if they want to remain viable.
I've seen a few European bike-biz companies who had been shipping direct to US say they'll no longer sell to US because customers have often not expected a customs bill.
Back as a Commencal and WeThePeople/Radio BMX Dealer? Wasn't on my bingo card.
(Radio makes an enduro bike???)
Looks like De Minimis (no tax on packages below $800) was cut starting Aug 29 so good buy normally priced mtb tires from EU 😢.
I think that these warehoused frames are the new reactor that the new Nukeproof boss confirmed is coming in this interview-
https://www.pinkbike.com/news/interview-clive-gosling-global-brand-mana…
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