The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

Finkill wrote:

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega...

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega (obviously no warranty on that anymore) and I've tried to contact a few brands with specific questions about bikes; often asking what is the max seatpost insertion on a frame, cos they left this off the geometry chart. I've been surprised by the complete lack of response from some brands and retailers. Given that I have money waiting to be spent on a new bike and the current state of the market, I thought I might get some response.

Maybe all the customer service people got laid off due to cutbacks? 

If businesses can't get the basics right then they can't expect to survive another slump. Given my current situation with the Nukeproof, I'm definitely thinking about which brands have a good warranty and who will still be around to answer my emails and process a warranty claim in future. My search has morphed a little from which bike fits my criteria, to which brand will be good to deal with in future. 

Shout out to the dropper post insertion thread on here and the excellent seatpost calculator on the Santa Cruz site. 

Finkill wrote:

Unfortunately it's an aluminium frame, so not many options for repair. There is a carbon repair place fairly close to me and I know a couple...

Unfortunately it's an aluminium frame, so not many options for repair. There is a carbon repair place fairly close to me and I know a couple of people who have had great service from them. I have some carbon frames on the shortlist as a result. 

Image of the the crack below, spotted mid ride on a snack break, on route to hit some jumps. Pretty sure things wo ld have got a lot worse if I had made it to the jumps without noticing. 

Finkill wrote:

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega...

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega (obviously no warranty on that anymore) and I've tried to contact a few brands with specific questions about bikes; often asking what is the max seatpost insertion on a frame, cos they left this off the geometry chart. I've been surprised by the complete lack of response from some brands and retailers. Given that I have money waiting to be spent on a new bike and the current state of the market, I thought I might get some response.

Maybe all the customer service people got laid off due to cutbacks? 

If businesses can't get the basics right then they can't expect to survive another slump. Given my current situation with the Nukeproof, I'm definitely thinking about which brands have a good warranty and who will still be around to answer my emails and process a warranty claim in future. My search has morphed a little from which bike fits my criteria, to which brand will be good to deal with in future. 

Shout out to the dropper post insertion thread on here and the excellent seatpost calculator on the Santa Cruz site. 

Finkill wrote:

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega...

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega (obviously no warranty on that anymore) and I've tried to contact a few brands with specific questions about bikes; often asking what is the max seatpost insertion on a frame, cos they left this off the geometry chart. I've been surprised by the complete lack of response from some brands and retailers. Given that I have money waiting to be spent on a new bike and the current state of the market, I thought I might get some response.

Maybe all the customer service people got laid off due to cutbacks? 

If businesses can't get the basics right then they can't expect to survive another slump. Given my current situation with the Nukeproof, I'm definitely thinking about which brands have a good warranty and who will still be around to answer my emails and process a warranty claim in future. My search has morphed a little from which bike fits my criteria, to which brand will be good to deal with in future. 

Shout out to the dropper post insertion thread on here and the excellent seatpost calculator on the Santa Cruz site. 

TheSuspensionLabNZ wrote:

100% - companies never seem interested in putting together that kind of documentation, and the people who would know it are all locked in a cave...

100% - companies never seem interested in putting together that kind of documentation, and the people who would know it are all locked in a cave and not allowed to communicate with the outside world! 

Every now and then I find a bike brand which has that info easily accessible but it feels pretty few and far between 🥲

Finkill wrote:

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega...

Slightly off topic maybe, but this past week I've been looking for a new enduro bike/frame after I discovered a big crack in my Nukeproof Mega (obviously no warranty on that anymore) and I've tried to contact a few brands with specific questions about bikes; often asking what is the max seatpost insertion on a frame, cos they left this off the geometry chart. I've been surprised by the complete lack of response from some brands and retailers. Given that I have money waiting to be spent on a new bike and the current state of the market, I thought I might get some response.

Maybe all the customer service people got laid off due to cutbacks? 

If businesses can't get the basics right then they can't expect to survive another slump. Given my current situation with the Nukeproof, I'm definitely thinking about which brands have a good warranty and who will still be around to answer my emails and process a warranty claim in future. My search has morphed a little from which bike fits my criteria, to which brand will be good to deal with in future. 

Shout out to the dropper post insertion thread on here and the excellent seatpost calculator on the Santa Cruz site. 

TheSuspensionLabNZ wrote:

100% - companies never seem interested in putting together that kind of documentation, and the people who would know it are all locked in a cave...

100% - companies never seem interested in putting together that kind of documentation, and the people who would know it are all locked in a cave and not allowed to communicate with the outside world! 

Every now and then I find a bike brand which has that info easily accessible but it feels pretty few and far between 🥲

anotherbikerguy wrote:

Not to excuse the bike industry, but I think the problem is more widespread. I regularly struggle to find seemingly basic information about all kinds of...

Not to excuse the bike industry, but I think the problem is more widespread. I regularly struggle to find seemingly basic information about all kinds of outdoor equipment, tools, etc. 

Kusa wrote:

Tarrifs on goods from Vietnam 46%, China 34%, EU 20%, Swiss 30%, Taiwain 32%, Japan 24%..... end of the bike companies?

Kusa wrote:

Tarrifs on goods from Vietnam 46%, China 34%, EU 20%, Swiss 30%, Taiwain 32%, Japan 24%..... end of the bike companies?

Kusa wrote:

Tarrifs on goods from Vietnam 46%, China 34%, EU 20%, Swiss 30%, Taiwain 32%, Japan 24%..... end of the bike companies?

TEAMROBOT wrote:

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable...

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable, specialized non-immigrant workers in the next month to save us from these high costs. That's all we need.

Well, that and in-country raw material extraction for materials that often don't exist in our borders in the quantities we need, like bauxite, rubber, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, etc.

But if we can figure out those two aspects in the next month we'll be fine.

TEAMROBOT wrote:

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable...

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable, specialized non-immigrant workers in the next month to save us from these high costs. That's all we need.

Well, that and in-country raw material extraction for materials that often don't exist in our borders in the quantities we need, like bauxite, rubber, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, etc.

But if we can figure out those two aspects in the next month we'll be fine.

TEAMROBOT wrote:

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable...

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable, specialized non-immigrant workers in the next month to save us from these high costs. That's all we need.

Well, that and in-country raw material extraction for materials that often don't exist in our borders in the quantities we need, like bauxite, rubber, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, etc.

But if we can figure out those two aspects in the next month we'll be fine.

TEAMROBOT wrote:

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable...

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable, specialized non-immigrant workers in the next month to save us from these high costs. That's all we need.

Well, that and in-country raw material extraction for materials that often don't exist in our borders in the quantities we need, like bauxite, rubber, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, etc.

But if we can figure out those two aspects in the next month we'll be fine.

andyjr77 wrote:

I was going to say the same! The irony being how much of the machinery needed to start manufacturing is likely to be from outside the...

I was going to say the same! The irony being how much of the machinery needed to start manufacturing is likely to be from outside the USA too..... 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ So its a case of:

- Acquire manufacturing location/facility

- Acquire machinery and pay big tariffs to do it

- Hire specialist staff and try to pull them from higher paying industries to bikeland with lower pay and a depleted sector (less job security)

- Acquire materials and pay tariffs

- Ramp up production & deal with snagging in new processes, new teams, new equipment 

- Keep end consumers and distributors happy with the inevitable price increase and supply delay

- Magically fill the revenue void while all this happens

- Oh, not forgetting, convince a lender to fund all this, especially the machinery CapEx, when the industry is in decline so not exactly a great underwriting risk.

 

Man, I got out at the right time.....

TEAMROBOT wrote:

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable...

To be fair, it's also possible that competitively priced and highly specialized manufacturing will pop up in the U.S. at enormous scale with armies of knowledgable, specialized non-immigrant workers in the next month to save us from these high costs. That's all we need.

Well, that and in-country raw material extraction for materials that often don't exist in our borders in the quantities we need, like bauxite, rubber, lithium, cobalt, rare earth elements, etc.

But if we can figure out those two aspects in the next month we'll be fine.

Fox wrote:

Not only do we not make the stuff to make the stuff (in many cases at least), the USA doesn't have the competent manpower to make...

Not only do we not make the stuff to make the stuff (in many cases at least), the USA doesn't have the competent manpower to make the stuff, and the manpower is very expensive. We often don't have the stuff (raw ingredients) to make the stuff (machinery/manufacturing equipment) to make the stuff (end result that is sold). Its quite a conundrum.  And it all seems like its gonna drive the cost of the stuff up significantly across the board. 

If the costs go up because of this and inflation results, historically the fed would raise interest rates to cool the economy and tame inflation. But if the economy is slow already and seemingly getting slower, prices go up, fed raises rates, its gonna slow it even more (2000, 2008)???

All this, combined with a new $550 seat post just released, has me wondering about the near future sustainability of high end bikes and parts. Brands like the (I think) no longer happening Brand X, that made a good dropper for like $200, seem like they may be a good play in the bike biz right now. One good thing for consumers: carbon bikes don't seem to break at a rate near what the alum and steel bike from days of yore did. They're also repairable a lot of the time. Geo has largely stabilized in the last 5 years. So there are a lot of sweet frames around with replaceable bearings that could have a long future of riding ahead of them for very low cost. And a GX Eagle rear mech costs about $100, I think there are some Shimano parts even cheaper, and there is a good suspension shop in my town to keep the squishy parts workin. Ahh, tires, what about the price of tires? Is Stan's a domestic product?

 

Fox wrote:

Not only do we not make the stuff to make the stuff (in many cases at least), the USA doesn't have the competent manpower to make...

Not only do we not make the stuff to make the stuff (in many cases at least), the USA doesn't have the competent manpower to make the stuff, and the manpower is very expensive. We often don't have the stuff (raw ingredients) to make the stuff (machinery/manufacturing equipment) to make the stuff (end result that is sold). Its quite a conundrum.  And it all seems like its gonna drive the cost of the stuff up significantly across the board. 

If the costs go up because of this and inflation results, historically the fed would raise interest rates to cool the economy and tame inflation. But if the economy is slow already and seemingly getting slower, prices go up, fed raises rates, its gonna slow it even more (2000, 2008)???

All this, combined with a new $550 seat post just released, has me wondering about the near future sustainability of high end bikes and parts. Brands like the (I think) no longer happening Brand X, that made a good dropper for like $200, seem like they may be a good play in the bike biz right now. One good thing for consumers: carbon bikes don't seem to break at a rate near what the alum and steel bike from days of yore did. They're also repairable a lot of the time. Geo has largely stabilized in the last 5 years. So there are a lot of sweet frames around with replaceable bearings that could have a long future of riding ahead of them for very low cost. And a GX Eagle rear mech costs about $100, I think there are some Shimano parts even cheaper, and there is a good suspension shop in my town to keep the squishy parts workin. Ahh, tires, what about the price of tires? Is Stan's a domestic product?

 

jeff.brines wrote:

This goes without saying, but I do not like what this administration is doing with tariffs.I won’t repeat in detail what many of you have already...

This goes without saying, but I do not like what this administration is doing with tariffs.

I won’t repeat in detail what many of you have already nailed but to summarize: these policies are destabilizing, costly, inflationary, and may very well lead to higher interest rates (all very bad for a  very global bike industry). And for what? I’ve yet to see a compelling argument, even a theoretical, about the long-term upside. For fun, I'll give you my "best case" scenario, but this isn't so much what I think will happen, just what could hapen. Oh, and in case nobody wants to read everything I'm writing, I'm guessing this will be short lived, but I wouldn't bet on that. 

Since this is a mountain biking forum, and speculation is probably okay, let me throw out a framework I’m calling Jokernomics (lol)

If you’re unfamiliar, The Joker is a Batman villain (duh). And if I ever have to bring up Batman while discussing economics or geopolitics, things have clearly gone off the rails.

Here are a few ground assumptions:

Trump is egomaniacal.

He has believed for over 40 years that the US has been getting a raw deal on global trade.

He considers himself one of the greatest negotiators in history (his words, not mine).

My (hopelessly optimistic) working theory is this: Trump is playing the chaos card. He wants his negotiating counterparts to believe he’s genuinely lost his mind and is unhinged. That he’s erratic. Unpredictable. Maybe even dangerous (I'd argue he is...but play along)

The goal is to simply get the other side to make concessions they otherwise wouldn’t—just to bring the madness to an end.
Classic madman theory—but weaponized with tariffs (and yes, I like batman villans). Now, whether he’s actually that calculated or just genuinely unhinged is another question Either way, the strategy is fundamentally broken. Why?

1) You can’t just flip a switch and onshore manufacturing. Robot already explained this well.

2) The downstream effects are real. Fox laid out the consequences pretty clearly.

3) Our leverage is not what Trump pretends. Yes, we have a lot, but I frankly don't want to test the limits here.

Risk asymmetry is brutal. The potential gain vs. the potential downside? Not even close to balanced. The juice isn’t worth the squeeze, even if we “win." How we interact on the global stage matters and this is very bothersome. This is poor character, and crushes global stability. 

There are moments to take moonshots. To embrace asymmetric bets (startups, big gaps when you are 17, jumping a minivan in the desert). But radically shifting trade policy affecting every sector of the economy for a modest potential gain? That's crazy.