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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/24/2025 9:14am
Small piece of advice, take it or leave it, but there are more generous ways to say "hey, I found something too!" As I’ve mentioned a few times, this thread feels more like a collaborative 6th grade social studies project than high-level buy-side analysis. People generally give each other the benefit of the doubt, and the usual passive-aggressive Reddit snark tends to stay out of the room. Of course, do as you wish. I just like to believe there are better ways to engage. @CascadeComponents this was exactly what I was curious about. Thanks for the thoughtful context. In the...
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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/24/2025 9:12am
We've obviously talked about this a lot, and I’m in a bit of a unique spot, having played the “CFO” role at a small, vertically integrated manufacturing company in the outdoor space. I don’t think I’m oversharing when I say it’s a labor of love. That’s not to say Intend isn’t profitable, but let’s be real: Kornelius could probably make a lot more money as a founder/design engineer in just about any other industry. I touched on this in the podcast I did a while back, but the IQ level in the bike industry is wild. You’ve got incredibly talented...
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DubC Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/21/2025 2:18pm
Most americans dont realize that the german bike market alone is nearly as big as the entire US bike market. We're too busy doing important things like defending the continued use of the imperial unit system and changing map names to the Gulf of America (aka the gulf of small hands and fragile egos).

TEAMROBOT Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/18/2025 10:02am
I respectfully disagree with your observation that influencers aren't effective. While it's true there are some cringy/hacky influencers that make me want to stab my eyeballs out, there's an enormous audience for outdoor content that isn't quite journalism. People love a good yarn, and at their core, that's what influencers are selling. It can be done poorly, but it can also be done well. For instance, Seth pouring Johnson's baby oil in his brakes and testing them for a year. It's not journalism, I know it's a paid ad for Diamondback, but still... I'd buy that for a dollar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63VIuPiX3CA&t=234s...
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dolface Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/14/2025 9:33am
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TEAMROBOT Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/14/2025 9:31am
I'm certain they haven't.
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sethimus Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/13/2025 12:33pm
you really thought someone is able to produce carbon rims at this pricepoint in the us? can i sell you a bridge?
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earleb Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/13/2025 12:33pm
Nobl rims are made China so price is going up for US customers regardless of them opening a sales office in the US.
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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/5/2025 9:16am
I'll do a bigger post on this later, but it seems to me there is a greater likelihood of recession than I expected even 8 weeks ago. A few data points caught my eye today: Buffett Indicator: Currently sitting at ~2.1 standard deviations above the mean, signaling historically expensive equity valuations relative to GDP. Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Forecasting a sharp economic contraction of -2.8% in Q1, a significant shift from recent strength. Polymarket: Pricing in a 40% probability of a U.S. recession in 2025, reflecting rising concerns among market participants. If a recession materializes, especially alongside broad tariffs, ongoing inventory...
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SteveClimber Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/5/2025 9:16am
From Apricitas Economics post this morning; The costs of these actions are enormous, covering $1.3T in US imports or roughly 42% of all goods brought into the United States. If households and companies tried simply to import the same goods from the same countries as last year, they would now be forced to pay an 11.5% effective tariff or more than $370B in total So yeah, shit creek without a paddle it is.
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SteveClimber Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/4/2025 2:34pm
Well, the trade war has officially begun. Good luck to any companies that have significant cross border trade, particularly the small ones based in Squamish and Vancouver area.
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FerrousBueller Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

3/3/2025 9:18am
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dolface Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

2/27/2025 10:29am
I guess this goes here? Brutal/funny commentary on Trailforks/Outside use of AI images:
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anotherbikerguy Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

2/27/2025 10:23am
Reading the news about Ari opening up a "satellite" location today:
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owl-x Liked a reply to forum topic MTB Tech Rumors and Innovation

2/21/2025 12:20pm
I get it now. It’s a Mormon thing. Next.
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motomike Liked a reply to forum topic e*thirteen's Sidekick Hub: Impressions & Discussion

2/14/2025 9:15am
I clip in but ride the same trails as you, and I would 100% recommend the hub (or an Ochain) for you especially on flats. The free-feeling suspension and greatly reduced PKB is pretty noticeable on our chunkier, relatively slower trails with moments of speed and smashing. I would expect a rider on flats to have even more positives as your feet should want to stay more glued to the pedals through rough sections of trail. Downside is that both solutions can be a little cumbersome in the slower, more techy trails needing short and fast ratchets of the pedals...
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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

2/4/2025 10:07am
Good pull. In this thread, we seemingly stumbled on an idea that should be obvious; certain founders want to optimize for profit (I'd say most), while certain founders want to optimize for mission. If you are in the latter category, by default private equity or some kind of strategic financial buyer is often a mismatch and will perhaps push your business the wrong direction. Every now and then maximizing for profit also maximizes for mission, but we obviously can't bet on that. While I could poke a lot of holes in Patagonia's execution of mission, I can't poke holes in...
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noideamtber Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

1/29/2025 10:04am
aslong as PON dont kill one of the best MTB companies, i am happy - they make stuff I and many others want to buy and ride.
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noideamtber Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

1/29/2025 10:04am
20 Sept 2022................
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Jotegr Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

1/29/2025 10:03am
The news "leaked" almost a year ago but you can find comments that it happened well before then. Can't blame you for missing it though, OneUp seems intent on keeping it quiet so they can trick consumers into thinking they're just 29 nice guys up in Squamish and your money is all staying locally.
This forum topic has 4631 replies.