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The energy race is about to get very interesting. China's scale in something to behold. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/30/climate/china-clean-ener… Sadly our aging leadership in the US seems to be doubling down on the last century's energy products rather than going after the next century's.

The reason for this is obvious though, factory floor workers have seen a declining wage premium over the last twenty years. The blue collar jobs are more decentralized and less unionized that the "golden era" of US manufacturing. Simply put, the US does not have a competitive advantage in manufacturing, and it has a lower medium wage than other non college degree professions. The Economist recently did a big article on it, but skilled trades, repair and maintenance workers (HVAC etc), emergency services, vehicle and equipment techs and ticketed operators and mining all have a higher wage premium and similar...

What's interesting about the labor angle of this is that we can't fill the open manufacturing jobs we've got now, let alone a bunch of new ones. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/23/business/factory-jobs-workers-trump… We would need to bring in skilled foreign labor to really get manufacturing going again (a 180 degree turn from current policies), or convince gen Z / alpha to aspire to manufacturing careers rather than other professions (I'm not holding my breath).

Honestly, the reshoring of American bicycle production probably deserves its own thread. My lens on the matter is pretty limited, but I did once break a CNC machine so I feel that makes me an internet expert (right?). In all seriousness, these are huge capital allocation decisions that to Robot's point take many more years than one presedential term to pan out. Plus, those who really want the reshoring of all manufacturing (disenfranchised MAGA people, mostly) want this for labor reasons. They'll be sorely disappointed when they learn the new factories need 1/10 the labor inputs from those of the...

not to get drawn into a political topic here but that's what a lot of people don't realize in regards to domestic US manufacturing. it's not like we have equipment mothballed all over like the warehouse from ark of the covenant. it got sold / destroyed and is just gone. it's not "restarting" manufacturing, it's rebuilding lines from the ground up - which in many cases is a process that takes years.

It's not an accident that those key pieces of metal and textile equipment fled the U.S. and found their way to Taiwan and China, and while cost of labor in the U.S. is part of that, policy is the biggest part. China, Taiwan, and Vietnam have relentlessly pursued industrial policy and bicycle manufacturing for the last 40-70 years, and the United States has actively shipped those jobs overseas and across borders via WTO, IMF, NAFTA, TPP, and other policies. Meanwhile Germany and Japan still have some of the most advanced manufacturing facilities in the world and outpunch their weight class...

The last draw benches suitable for aluminum bicycle tubing in the United States were bought by Boeing from a facility in CT(in a building built specifically to handle all the aluminum profiles and bar stock for Cannondale)in 2015 and are now being used to make replacement parts for b52 toilets. I worked with the New Haven chamber of commerce and an angel investor to re-start that facility to serve the remaining domestic 6061 frame builders for a few years, we even managed to draw a bunch of 7005 profiles for a few friends. The final aluminum Turners and Ellsworths, among...

e*thirteen just launched a neat video detailing some of the development of the Sidekick hub. The Sidekick hub’s journey began seven years ago with a vision to create a silent, low-drag hub. After more than 50 prototypes, the Sidekick hub was finally brought to life—not only achieving the original project goals but also delivering unexpected performance benefits. During prototyping and testing with athletes, improved speed due to reduced drag was clearly noticeable. Surprisingly, riders testing bikes equipped with the Sidekick also reported enhanced suspension performance and overall ride characteristics. The Sidekick isolated drivetrain feedback from both the suspension and pedals...

Good question. Slight tangent, but I’ve been toying with the idea of launching a monthly podcast where I unpack stuff like this. I didn’t think people would care, but when you break it down in a way that maps to our world, it actually seems to land. And honestly, it’s way easier for me to riff on this in audio form than hammer it out on a keyboard. Anyway, I read through the last few pages of comments, good to see Revel back from the dead, by the way. I’ll probably share more thoughts on that later (maybe). For now...

Sounds like sram is raising pricing 10% across the board. Items from china higher. Most notable is AXS batteries iirc.

Hope it's OK for me to stretch this thread a bit to something more like "the business side of mountain biking." Question is re OneUp. They just announced a new flat pedal, but it doesn't seems like they had any pedals out to websites so that reviews would drop at the same time as the announcement. If I remember correctly, they also did this with the clip pedals. Given the issues with the clip pedals and the novel 1/2 concave, 1/2 convex shape of the new flat pedal, it seems to me like they would have benefited from having some...

Silca is not releasing it;s newest product (mini-inflator) in the US due to tariffs: https://escapecollective.com/silca-elettrico-pumps/ Lots of good insight, and I thought this breakdown was really helpful "Ideal world: COGS: $42 Shipping: ~$2 Import Duties/Paperwork fees ~13%: $5.46 'Landed COGS': $49.46 Price to bike shop: $90/ Silca Gross Profit: $40.54 / 45% Retail: $149 / Bike Shop Gross Profit: $59 / 40% With Trump 45 Tariff on Chinese-made goods (2018): COGS: $42 Shipping: ~$2 Import Duties/Paperwork fees ~13%: $5.46 25% Trump 45 Tariff: $10.50 'Landed COGS': $59.96 Price to bike shop: $98/ Silca Gross Profit: $40.05 / 38.8% (42-45% is...

I believe the majority of Fox sales in Europe are made by the companies assembling bikes here like Canyon, YT etc and these numbers are obviously not small...

It's the Walmart method. Price yourself just enough lower than everyone else for comparable goods that some consumers will get on-board...and then wait. Mom & pop stores will eventually close and you can raise your prices. If you have the cashflow to survive it - it doesn't hurt to have a large enough scale that you can get product on the shelves cheaper than others can and sacrifice a little bottom line in the shorter term - it's literally just a matter of time. Keep lowering prices and your profit margin in the short term to close the other brands...

I don't think you need to wonder much about it - the big players led the race to the bottom that dragged everyone else down. By quantity, they overproduced the most, and there are only so many physical units the market will purchase, especially combined with the bear market state of the industry. I worked for a small MTB company before, during, and after the COVID rush. We set ourselves apart based on value (and performance, but to take a "risk" on a small brand you haven't ridden before, price is a good incentive to try something new), so when...