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Gosh. What a heavy 24 hours in this thread! As somebody who only checks in every couple of days my emotions have been a rollercoaster over the past 20 minutes, reading through all of this.
Jeff - Thanks for both the knowledge and your openness. You just hit me with a dose of "same!" I feel like a guy that is sitting on relatively specialized knowledge, and I'm incapable of getting people to listen to it or act upon it. Perhaps that's not the right interpretation of what you were saying, but no matter it made me feel a bit better about myself. Thanks for that. As for Robot's words, what I really took from that was something along the lines of "sure, their finances were messed up, but look at all the other stuff they couldn't do right either!" That doesn't detract from anything you said.
Robot - Thanks for all you do. Back like...10-15 years now I've always been impressed with how you're able to say things. You're not always right, but you're always entertaining. And just pure class to recognize that you might have inadvertently offended somebody and make strides to fix it. And, somewhat related, the cheapness you expressed in your Fox Podium fork video made me feel good about things as well. Honestly, where does everybody find the money for this stuff! So thanks for all of that.
My take on YT. This is a company I always struggled with. It was easy to see the value and and I always advised people to have a look at YT, Canyon or the like if they asked my advice on what bike to buy. For my money though, something always just rubbed me a bit wrong with YT and I think the Instagram flexing gets to the heart of it. It feels like a fine line between "I want to buy that bike because the company is cool and I want to be a part of it" and "these guys have vibed me out of a sale." I would also say that if I owned a DTC bike company right now I would be working very, very hard to figure out how to get a way for people to try out sizing, and get consistent answers on delivery, duties, etc. I very, very nearly bought my girlfriend a Canyon and the lack of clarity on delivery, duties and returns was enough to cause me to hit pause on my purchase. Throw in DTC warranty horror stories and it can be a tough hill to climb when talking about such large amounts of money.
I think this is also probably the big problem people are having with how this played out. Usually, there's a buffer when a company goes under, and it's more likely a shop or distributor on the hook. Maybe we feel like part of what we're paying for is for these people to take on that risk? It just feels really off when somebody pays money for something in good faith and then it's just like "Oopsie! We screwed up and can't give you a bike or your money back!"
As a fellow nerd with one foot in corporate finance and another in the mtb world, just want to say I love this thread.
in my defense, as a YT owner, i never looked at YT branding and thought they were cool. honestly its quite blatantly try hard tool-ery.
literally only bought it because the value checked out. people on reddit are talking about how 'people shouldnt buy YT in the US right now' because of this situation, which is valid, but im reminding them at these ridiculous unsustainable prices. its basically like buying a used bike. (quite literally) aside from being able to talk some poor shmuck down, these prices are nearly the price of used bikes of the same build kit. and you get OG warranty on all the oem parts. at most you lose frame warranty, and honestly at that point like if you bought a Jeffsy thats just an easy frame swap to a stumpy or similar 210x55 shock frame which is common. (and again, 3k gets you an Xfusion shock build at Spesh, but a floatX/SDU build of a Jeffsy)
(on top of the fact that the new Rallon is like ~6k to sniff) (those be Pivot prices!!)
i still like the function of YT. cheap, basic bikes. not a lot of gimmicks on the bikes, only marketing/advertising gimmicks i just ignore. the mills are cool, especially in an era where bike demos are not only a thing of the past but are now super expensive everywhere i look... like more expensive than a rental at a bike park expensive. and i do like their team riders (including Tippie!) regardless of the Gwin situation.
they could dump Markus and the 'live uncaged' bs and the tryhard imagery and all that tomorrow, and run a leaner marketing campaign as far as i'm concerned, and it would change nothing about the bikes and their value and ability to sell. i think one could argue for some it would actually improve their viability in the market where they wanna sell izzos and jeffsys. most average MTBers i see on the trail are not very 'uncaged'. just chill dudes trail riding.
sadly i dont see anything im talking about occurring lol. if they survive, its with markus. IF they survive. might be hard to live uncaged while chained to all that debt. marketing strategy should appeal to their new business strategy, be fiscally responsible! run your company lean, like how I run my izzo on the trail... sub-30 lbs
as someone who's written and deleted as many posts as I've actually made, I totally empathize with feeling like you have something to say without a good way to say it. that said, overwhelmed is not a word I'd ever use to describe what I've seen you write on this thread, or on vital in general.
yeah, Robot made an eloquent and insightful post, but you've made plenty of those yourself (the last few in this discussion included). it's so rad to see such thoughtfulness put into discussions about mountain bicycles on the internet, and y'all are two of the driving forces that make that possible for the rest of us. so thanks to both of you for that.
as far as people undervaluing financial leadership - isn't that kind of how it always works with esoteric/specialized knowledge, at least before the hard lessons are learned?
I'm also in aerospace (and can vouch for beaverbiker's point about financial rigor in the industry), and in my somewhat obscure sub-discipline I've heard plenty of stories of leadership ignoring recommendations from engineers like me, and not designing systems to be as robust as was ultimately necessary, due to any combination of bad initial assumptions, stubbornness, or unrealistic cost/schedule expectations. but eventually you destroy enough hardware to know when the nerds need to be taken seriously.
to me it just seems harder for us to see when listening to the CFO goes well, vs. when they're ignored and things blow up. I can't help but think that many of the successful companies in the bike industry have made similarly nearsighted decisions as YT, just with enough margin for error to learn the financial discipline necessary to succeed long-term. (maybe I'm completely wrong on this, I'd love to know what you guys think)
also, if you decide to write a response to the ideas Robot put forth, I'd read every word (whether you put it here or on your blog)
It’s interesting to go back and listen to the MTB Podcast interview with the, once again, CEO of Revel and use that as a point of contrast to how people perceive Flossman. It’s also interesting to listen to him and get a different perspective on why a founder might turn to PE funding.
Also: I might have missed something, but I didn’t think Robot was devaluing Jeff’s knowledge and expertise. To me, it seemed like he was saying that regardless of how good of modeling, predicting, advising someone like Jeff might engage in with a client or employer, it’s up to that company to actually listen and make decisions using that information. At the end of the day, way too many founders would rather just lead with their heart and bury their heads in the sand while riding those good times to insolvency (I’m saying this as a founder of an organization who, personally, often struggles to grapple with tough metrics and wants to just stay positive and keep moving forward. It’s a hard world, ya’ll and tough times are tough.). .
i guess the real problem is we're all pointing fingers at either Markus or Sam (and the PE peoples) when they had a CFO position and that guy is sneaking under the radar. somebody check his social media! Find me a boat!!
Sometimes having a safe place where you can fling poop at the wall, see what sticks and have other people admire the smell of said poop can be very beneficial.
I for one enjoy the posts even if a lot of it goes over my head and even if you say you have delivery problems. It's a style, it's probably unique and that makes it cool. Keep going at it. If you'll see to be rambling here, maybe it will clear your train of though and make the delivery that much crisper where and when it really matters.
In my experience there are few things more difficult for a person (especially men) then to open yourself up and discuss your insecurities. But I can assure you that most people out there have been struggling in the post Covid world and really since the financial crash of 07. Some small wins and a lot of disappointment could sum up my career and countless friends and family. And I think both myself and team robot put a lot of the blame for that fact on people like yt’s management team. CEOs and Cvos and cfos who use the data not to build a more stable company and offer a better product like you suggest they would/should. But instead use data to try to extract more wealth and justify the growth they want. (Amazon is probably literally the best at this). And unfortunately the system we all live in tends to reward those people when they win and lets them use a get out of jail free card when they lose. Where as everyone else is just over here trying to do right by others and getting absolutely worn down by the greedy in the process.
Anyways you seem to be driven by doing right by others. And to me that’s a lot more to be proud about in that than any amount of money or clout. Don’t kick yourself too hard for being just like damn near everyone else. And I assure you for a crash out both team robot and i are both guilty of things far more spectacular.
As others have said, this is a nice thread which has surprisingly little trolling/politics or conflict in general.
@jeff.brines in case it comforts you somewhat, I have a good friend working in a hedge fund, he has pretty much been depressed since covid telling me none of the financial models apply anymore and the markets don't react with any reasonable logic. And it seems safe investments are more and more ignored to chase growth similar to big tech which seems completely unsustainable.
My version of what I think Robot was saying is that the issue is the industry is run by enthusiasts. I intentionally use "issue" instead of "problem," because I want my bikes designed by people who are passionate about riding bikes. But mixing passion for the sport with running a business in the sport can lead to the sort of irrational exuberance we saw during the COVID boom. I don't follow the financial news closely so I may be way off, but can you imagine the CEO of General Motors saying, "We just build the trucks we want to drive"?
I don't think that devalues the CFO work at all. I'm an inch wide and mile deep professionally, and additionally have the great misfortune of working for a publicly traded company. Like others, I understand not being listened to by management. I focus on having a sense of pride in my craft and knowing that I gave good and thorough advice.
Jeff - I've enjoyed your posts greatly. I generally don't find this sort of subject matter interesting, but I've found this thread fascinating and learned a lot. I hope you'll keep singing solely for the sake of the song.
Also, a huge and sincere thank you to all the people with actual insider industry knowledge who come on here and share.
FWIW, cars being what they are today is partly the result of making cars that sell well, not cars that necessarily make sense. Turns out focus groups led the way to generic crossovers while crazy car people with crazier ideas brought the likes of Renault Espace to the table. A car nobody knew they needed but was then a massive success once on the market because of the versatility it brought.
Sometimes the best things come from those that think a bit outside the box. From the enthusiasts. Because you need an enthusiast to figure out hurtling down the hill on a bicycle is fun. And then more enthusiasts to make things that brought the experience to where it is today. 50 years ago you would have been sold either a pair of shoes or a motorcycle to do the same job. Because who in their right mind wants to pedal up the hill to hurtle down it with a bike??
Jeff, Robot, and all: thanks everyone for your insights in this thread. It's by far my favorite on Vital and Vital is the only forum I engage with on a regular basis. I've learned a ton from all of you, particularly on the business side (and maybe more than I care to about flex stays).
My friend Roger has a saying that an offer is only as good as a take. I interpret that as being basically the same as "you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make them drink." Not to get too specific, but I feel like I've offered more than has been taken in my career, so I get why the comment yesterday stung. Who knows what all went down at these companies, but there's a fair chance smart folks in finance raised concerns but were ignored or overruled.
On the automotive tangent, GM is proof that a gigantic corporation can still do some really cool shit if the will to do so exists. Look at the Corvette program, or the fact that you can buy a friggin' Cadillac with a supercharged V8 AND a 6-speed manual for evidence!
*edit to add picture of CT5-V Blackwing 668 hp / 659 lb-ft of torque
This is a world class forum/thread. As someone that departed a PE hot potato in my past life, its all an interesting read. Keep up the good insights, posts, observations.
I just saw our fantasy rankings are listed on the left, so sad that I missed Andorra roster and got a friggin zero score, slipped about 200 places
But-my wife is clocking a wonderful 69th place! no pun intended on her ranking number.
Not to rain on the GM hype parade, but let’s not rewrite history…
Back in the ‘08–‘09 mess, GM took a fat bailout – over $50B from the U.S. government. They went full bankruptcy, government owned a chunk, and when all was said and done, taxpayers ate like $11B in losses. Not exactly a heroic brand imo.
Ford?
They saw the writing on the wall early, leveraged everything (even mortgaged the damn blue oval logo), and pre-borrowed $23B in 2006. Didn’t touch the TARP bailout like GM and Chrysler. They did take some smaller loans for tech stuff, but actually paid those back. No bankruptcy, no handouts, just smart people and a solid brand.
So yeah, GM’s doing some cool stuff now, but let’s not forget who needed a rescue and who handled their business.
All that being said, im excited to see Caddy in Formula One...I hope they bring back Palmer.
My experience with GM has been mixed. On one hand the new corvette and caddy being back in F1 is so damn cool. On the other hand my personal purchase of the EQEV has been nothing but problems. For the first 3 months of owing it, I've only driven it for ~2 weeks; reset was spent in the shop fixing the image processing module, the charger port assembly, and the onstar module. Going through lemon law buyback now.
Great points on the financial (mis)management.
Not to diminish GM's financial mismanagement (or any of the other companies involved), but TARP made a profit for the US taxpayer.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Troubled_Asset_Relief_Program
Hope this isn't too far off-topic for this thread; it's definitely a big deal for the the roadie/gravel world: https://escapecollective.com/rapha-and-ef-education-easypost-to-part-ways-after-2025/
"It’s worth noting that Rapha has faced well-documented financial pressures in recent years, with consistent annual losses going back years and ongoing efforts to restructure and reduce costs. While there’s no indication that the end of the EF partnership is directly tied to this, stepping back from a high-profile and likely expensive commitment, potentially in the region of €2 million annually – as Escape Collective’s reporting last year suggested is typical for a WorldTour apparel sponsorship – would align with a broader effort to focus resources elsewhere."
If they ARE going to change focus it'll likely have a big impact; regardless of what you think of the brand they have a huge following who are willing to spend money.
Honestly their knee pads were so good if they focused more on practical apparel for MTB and less on rinsing roadies for everything they had, I feel like they could do very well. That said, I thought rinsing roadies for their last penny was a nearly recession-proof model. Kinda like a constant of the universe. Death, taxes, roadies overpaying for microscopic gains to their cycling experience...
Need to grab another pair before they can't be found anymore.
When the poors started showing up to group rides in Rapha on last model year's bike, PNS and MAAP were standing by ready to rinse the REAL roadies with even more muted earth tone offerings.
As a roadie/gravel rider and local poor* who shows up to LA fashion show group rides with the old Rapha/old bike combo, this description was 10/10. No notes.
*clearly not actually poor by any reasonable metric
I swore off Rapha when they sold to Walmart, but decided to try their kneepads after reading some reviews and they are excellent. The lightweight trail pants on sale is also a recommendation if you live in area of poison oak and ticks and prefer the slight protection on offer.
Apart from the fact that I can't fit into roadie kits, I would never ride around with giant PNS letters on my clothing. Reminds me of the ol' PEN15 trick from like middle school.
Waiting for the latest release from esoteric, bio-friendly, forward-thinking road cycling apparel brand known as 8008135.
Did you see their collab with 55378008?
I feel like 'Legion' missed their calling at a better marketing strategy.
Going back to companies in desperate need of rationalizing SKUs, scrolling through just jerseys on Rapha's site:
Pro Team Ghost, Pro Team Training, Core Jersey, Core Jersey Lightweight, Core Thermal, Pro Team Lightweight, Pro Team Training, Brevet, Brevet Element, Brevet Lightweight, Brevet Windstopper, Brevet Long Sleeve, Pro Team Long Sleeve Lightweight, Pro Team Long Sleeve Midweight, Pro Team Aero, Pro Team Windstopper, Classic Jersey, Pro Team Flaero, Classic Flyweight, Classic Long Sleeve, all of the team replica jerseys and one-offs I'm too lazy to type out.
All with 3-12 color options, sizes XS-XXL.
I saw this video yesterday, it has some good insights on how Evil is managing to weather the current industry difficulties.
https://www.instagram.com/the_yt_mill/p/DMa8kIDSLr7/
lol this brand is crazy. temporary pop up mill in Colorado.
i'm imagining a Jim Cramer episode where he's saying "EU? SELL SELL SELL. US? BUY BUY BUY." (alarm bells ringing) "DUMP ALL YOUR EU AND MOVE IT ALL INTO US TODAY"
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