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Lastly I think gearboxes are inevitable as the pros are undeniable and someone will figure out surpassing the cons At the right price point to basically kill off derailleurs on any bike more than a grand.
I think in terms of geometry we’ll only see small changes from here on in. Loooooonnngg bikes make sense if you’re 200cm plus but beyond that reaches and stack is pretty dialled for the rest of us IMO.
The future is better suspension, wheels that don’t break or need truing, short AF seat tubes, 220mm rotors, and 12+ degree backsweep bars across the board.
2014 Devinci Wilson (Ex Dean Lucas worlds bike)
2015 Spec Enduro Evo
1997 Barracuda XXXC
I bought the Barracuda new in 1998 with money I made mowing lawns (I was 14) and it was a shitload of money for a kid. It was a cutting edge bike at the time. Attached is the Geo Chart lol.
I raced XC, FourCross and Downhill on that bad boy! Sadly I sold it as finances were not too hot. I wish I kept it as it's an awesome reminder of some great times on a bike.
DTSwiss XMC 1200 w/ 240 hubs xtr microspline
Magura Mt8sl Carbon brakes 180 rear and 203 front
XTR centrrlock rotors
Push 11/6 shock with SAR Spring
XTR cranks, 12 speed 10-51 and XTR derailleur
2018 Fox 40 Elite , airshaft cut to 180mm with MRP cartridge
Fox transfer with wolf tooth thumb
Every bolt has been switched to titanium.
SFG Radar saddle
Truvativ descendant TLD 35mm Carbon bars
Deity direct stem
Odi grips
Crank shop stamp1 pedals.
I’m saving a lot with these wheelsets. I’ve beat the hell out of them with no problems.
In 1994 I was convinced my Trek 8000 was the pinnacle.
In 1999 a DBR X6 was my first full suspension bike. USA made with a Marzocchi Junior T with a QR axle. That was definitely the shit.
Then in 2002 I got a Bullit with a Super T. Best bike ever!
In 2013 I got my first 29er trail bike. Changed my world.
But now it’s 2020 and I can’t imagine riding any of those old bikes or any of the in-betweeners I didn’t mention. Yeah, now bikes are as good as they can get and any improvements will be super minor.
I’d say all of our current bikes are definitely future-proof!
Will it become a situation like the automotive world, where electronic intervention has supposedly made things better, yet there is a lack of driver engagement in so many modern sports cars that it sends many enthusiasts looking back to something more pure and without "driver aids" and intrusive safety features? Is a hardtail analogous to a '68 Lotus Elan? It is not all that different than the current situation with enduro vs trail vs xc vs downcountry bikes and the concept of being overbiked.
Live valve suspension. Electronic shifting that needs battery charges and software updates. Electric motors on our bikes that have adaptive control modules to help you along. GPS tracking of every ride so you can share it, in real time, with all your followers, and practically never get lost.
One could take an apocolyptic view of the trajectory we seem to be heading.
Or you can pick one of the current crop of crazy fast and fun riding machines and go hit the trails! The options and variety are fantastic.
The march of development and change will not stop, but don't let it dampen your enthusiasm for riding. New bike day will always be awesome, even if your new bike is a gravel bike made by a company called Evil. 😜
If anything, I want to go steeper on the seat tube angle, that would mean an even longer bike (the ETT or the cockpit should stay roughly the same), but I would like to try out a bike with either a shorter reach/cockpit (just to see what it's like) and maybe with a steeper (yeah...) headtube angle (to shorten the wheelbase and bring the front axle closer to me with a long enough cockpit). And when I say 'I'd like to try out' I mean like with a mule that has these aspects adjustable without changing anything else (and keeping the geometry still rideable or proper, so an angleset is not the solution).
As for what the future holds... When someone makes a working gearbox or someone designs a clean idler setup (or a layshaft setup), I think high(er) pivots could become more ubiquitous. 29ers need them as increasing the wheel sizes has made the axle paths more forward compared to smaller wheels (just the nature of BB and rear axle position and the antisquat requirements). Plus the chainstay lengths have gotten long and the seat tubes are bent/slack to fit the wheels under the seat, a higher pivot does away with this. I think that should be the biggest change in the next few years.
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