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Primoz Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/6/2026 6:27am One bubble counter argument to the multiplier effect, defense spending makes stable manufacturing companies that have some free time on the machines that can then be used to make bike components by the enthusiasts working there (5DEV) 😁
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jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/6/2026 6:27am Love posts like this. Broadly, I agree. I’ve always liked Valerie Ramey’s work on fiscal multipliers, especially in the context of defense spending, assuming that’s who you were referencing. The piece I think sometimes gets underweighted is the role of DoD spending in producing major dual-use breakthroughs. The internet and GPS are the obvious examples. Could those breakthroughs have happened...
Jakowitz Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/6/2026 6:15am The point about defence spending having a positive affect on the rest of the economy- in my lectures this was talked about using the concept of the multiplier effect. This is the idea that if someone, ie the state, spends £1 on something then it increases national GDP by some amount because that’s been spent at a local supplier, who then pays wages, their employees go to the local butcher, who buys from the local farmer, etc etc. The issue with defence spending is it has a comparatively poor multiplier effect vs other forms of government spending. If I spend...
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TEAMROBOT Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/5/2026 12:38pm I have a friend who works high up at one of the big five Defense firms and he said his firm is under increasing pressure from the DOD for all of their products, components, required maintenance parts and supplies, and the rest of the supply chain to come from within the US, so as not to be dependent on or beholden to foreign manufacturing, especially in regards to potential geopolitical adversaries. To be clear, they aren't able to meet 100% of their needs entirely within the US, but the planes he was talking about featured a shockingly high proportion of...
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TEAMROBOT Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/5/2026 6:55am "Is the state of manufacturing in the US really that bad that a company, backed by the most important VC firm achieving 30 million motors per year is an achievement?" I'm not in a great position to comment on the annual global production of drone motors, but I can tell you that yes, the state of manufacturing in the US is pretty bleak. By one measure, China's manufacturing sector accounts for roughly 26% of their GDP, Japan is at 25%, Germany is 18%, but in the US that share is only 9% of GDP and continuing to trend downward annually...
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Primoz Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/5/2026 6:55am Drone != quadrocopter. FWIW regarding production, I thought about it some more. Making the stator is easy. Stamp some sheet metal, injection mold isolations and wind the thing with copper wire. Decoupling magnet production from China is the hard part. Regardless of how many motors we produce, all the magnets for them are coming from China. That's the reason why automotive makers are starting to make excited rotor motors where they replace magnets with winding on the rotor (besides other performance advantages). This works for big motors (drive motors for electric cars) and even there contacting the rotor is the...
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Primoz Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/5/2026 6:55am A drone is any kind of remote controlled aircraft. A quadrocopter is one of them. You can also have a manned quadrocopter if you'd like. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drone_warfare As you can see there are more classic airplane type aircraft shown in this article than there are "quadrocopter" types. Furthermore if you need to fly fairly long distance (ideally a few kilometers or more), need to be fast and at the end of the day don't need to be particularly agile, it makes ALL the sense in the world to go for an airplane type aircraft with lifting wings over a quadrocopter. It...
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jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/5/2026 6:56am RE: Magnets - something I broadly agree with you on. (china owns the market) As to the future, I know the American Dynamism team at a16z, along with other VCs, has been circling this general problem: rebuilding domestic capacity around critical minerals, magnets, motors, defense supply chains, and industrial manufacturing. A16z wrote directly about the critical minerals side last year...
jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/4/2026 1:40pm Oh it exists. For instance... https://vibecap.co/ Complete with purple gradient background and all.
TomJones Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/4/2026 8:06am
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jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/3/2026 9:49am This is a seed round in a company with big ambitions, not an investment in a mature, proven business. Going from zero to 30 million high-performance motors in 3.5 years would be a pretty meaningful achievement if they can pull it off. And at a $10 ASP, which is probably conservative, that is $300 million of annual revenue. Venture capital...
dolface Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/3/2026 6:34am
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jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/2/2026 2:13pm I know I’m probably in the minority around here in saying I look up to Marc, and I’d be happy to defend that view in the right setting. This isn’t that setting. I don’t think he’s god’s gift, and I don’t think you have to like everything someone says or does to respect what they’ve built or how they think...
jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/2/2026 11:29am The American answer to DJI (sort of) https://www.a16z.news/p/why-we-founded-westmag
jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
6/1/2026 8:10am Saddleback enters administration... https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/major-uk-cycling-business-saddleback-…
bizutch Liked a reply to forum topic 2026 Loudenvielle World Cup Downhill
6/1/2026 7:33am My 1st Luca memory: He & Walker as little kids doing full sprint laps on the Hendersonville BMX track chasing Christopher Herndon. Walker was older & bigger but Luca was ferocious pedaling every single lap latched onto them & relentless. I was putting on races with buddies just to have races & we were so excited to have kids committed to DH suddenly. I’ve enjoyed watching the Shaw Brothers progress from little BMX groms to National Champs & now a World Cup winning family.
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jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
5/30/2026 11:28am Dibs on the "Be Hawk Tuah or Be Nothing" tee shirt.
Blake_Motley Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
5/30/2026 11:28am Posting for the sake of updating your friends on your life is largely dead. Young kids are the first to correctly recognize that they have to always be giving a performance if there’s any chance they’ll be on camera because they’re always at risk of being the subject of a viral moment. Be hawk tuah or be nothing
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Blake_Motley Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
5/30/2026 11:27am
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jeff.brines Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread
5/29/2026 2:29pm To be fair, I used “going concern” imprecisely here. The normal accounting assumption is that a company is a going concern, meaning it is expected to keep operating. What I meant was the bad version: language in a 10-Q, 10-K, or auditor report saying there is “substantial doubt” about the company’s ability to continue as a going concern, often referred...