andyjr77

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lawn dart Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/3/2025 1:18pm

Your experience makes sense. 4 years ago, for the first time, I rented an ebike at Kanuga. Aside from having a wicked-good-time, I couldn't noticing that there were these small groups of riders: maybe an 8 yr. old kid, a teenager, and an older man or woman, all riding together. They were families, actually all riding together, UPHILL. I checked memory, and realized how seldom I'd seen this in my 40 years of biking. Ebikes are a great tool for families to enjoy mountain biking together. Full stop. If Ebike manufacturers haven't taken advantage of this marketing opportunity, well, here's...

This forum topic has 5325 replies.

jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/2/2025 11:26pm

I do think the warranty discussion is super interesting and worthy of its own thread. I have my own thoughts, but I'll save them for if (when) that thread is spawned. I'm sure most of you have seen the YT video from the other site, if not, its worth the watch. I'll likely publish some thoughts over the next 24-48 hours. There is still a fair bit of confusion around what is happening there.

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pamtbr Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/2/2025 11:26pm

CSS Composites > Future Comp > Christensen Arms > Ancor Capital Future Comp founder and CEO are Christensens. Christensen Arms was acquired by Ancor in 2019. Did Roland just use some of the funds from selling his firearms company to start a new project? I don't know, but if that was the case, then it may not make sense to keep sinking his own cash in. If Future/CSS were owned under CA, then maybe Ancor had enough of the bike industry.

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Brian_Peterson Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/2/2025 11:25pm

Honestly. I think a lot of manufacturers are using the warranty for marketing purposes now.. Especially in the carbon wheel market, where if you don't offer some sort of free replacement program, your wheels had better be really inexpensive..

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hogfly Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/2/2025 11:24pm

Pretty sure that I’ve experienced this same argument with regard to fly rods 20 years ago 😂

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Brian_Peterson Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/2/2025 11:24pm

Here's my take.. The industry screwed itself with the lifetime warranty. If a warranty covers manufacturering and/or material defects, should ot take 5 years to "discover" the defects? Should landing on a sharp pointer rock be considered a defect? Should anything a consumer breaks be assumed to be a defective product?

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piratetrails Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/1/2025 1:29pm

Can someone explain how the business model for carbon wheels ever worked? I buy a wheelset for $1.5k and it has a lifetime warranty. I swap them from bike to bike indefinitely because I've invested a good chunk of money in the hoops. I am never a repeat customer unless I take up the n+1 bike life, or go mullet /full 29 (feel like most people know which rear wheel size want on this front at this moment in history) Said, carbon wheels company now has to spend tons on marketing to try and court new customers for almost every...

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Brian_Peterson Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

10/1/2025 9:47am

I'm going to guess more along the line of the abundance of cheaper and lighter options currently out there on the bike side... As far as the whole company shutting down, maybe some big contract work didn't happen?

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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/28/2025 10:18pm

Shoutout to @chriskief for all the work above - HUGE! Greatly appreciate it.

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LePigPen Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/27/2025 1:35pm

It's tough because they've had major sales for YEARS at that point. They're almost never not on sale. But they ONE HUNDRED PERCENT ran as big a sale as possible right before ripping the rug out from people, knowing full well they were locking customers into purgatory. Trouble brewing would have been obvious and they should have slowed sales if anything if they were worried about the well being of their customers. But they were more concerned about setting themselves up in the best possible way to survive. But, ultimately, yes we bought YT bikes in December and got them...

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andyjr77 Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/27/2025 12:01pm

" My guess is they were having discussions about the state of the company and Ardian's continued financing long before the flash sale or Ardian's final decision." I'd not be surprised if Ardian hadn't put a "we want to see $X by the end of the quarter to show you can actually sell" target in place and the flash sale...

JVP Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/27/2025 11:49am

YT was also never a viable business, where Kona was, for decades. YT's whole business model was sell bikes for such low margins that you barely make a profit, with no room for economic disruptions. The bike industry is very cyclical, disruptions are baked in. What is their path forward? Raise prices to "normal" so they have a sustainable level of profit? Their customers are only here for low, low prices.

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Jotegr Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/27/2025 11:48am

In fairness to our Kona guys, perception matters and when you intentionally and unironically create the online persona of a rich asshole, that's going to alter the flavour of your subsequent acts. The kona guys didn't do that so their "return to grassroots" takeover of the brand just has a different feel.

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andyjr77 Added a reply to The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/27/2025 5:42am

It's interesting seeing Markus' take on it - I've worked through 6 M&A cycles in my career, and always, always, always, the PE/VC/corporate acquisition unit look at board & SLT conduct & optics. Think like an investor - would you sink money into a business with shaky (at best) financials, disrupted supply chain, global tariff wars, in a market segment...

jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/27/2025 5:36am

We’ll cover this on the pod in a few days, but the idea of Markus buying the company back isn’t all that surprising. One of the companies I consult for went through something similar: a private-equity exit gone wrong where the founder bought his business back from the PE firm for just 10% of the price he sold it for. Within a year, he had restored it to its former strength. The key difference here is Markus himself. He’s shown very little aptitude for running a sustainable business. While I don’t have all the financials, nothing suggests he can consistently...

This forum topic has 5325 replies.

jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/15/2025 1:43pm

I dug into this as well, and from what I can tell you’re right. It shouldn’t matter whether a court-appointed trustee or YT is in charge, the customer should either receive the product or be refunded in a reasonable timeframe if inventory isn’t available. The idea that money just vanishes into bankruptcy proceedings isn’t the expected outcome. I didn’t state it outright in my writing, but if you read between the lines, even for a bankruptcy or restructuring, things feel more chaotic than I’d expect. “Ready, fire, aim” comes to mind.

This forum topic has 5325 replies.

jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/14/2025 12:00am

Some light Sunday reading about YT's future for anyone who cares. In short, they need to some relatively large changes, even if they are lucky enough to find investors. Maybe Markus is reading this and will hire me

(me...not holding my breath) // Substack