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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

9/1/2025 12:03pm
I haven’t heard anything yet. A few quick thoughts, maybe I’ll do a follow-up since this is one of the biggest question marks in the industry right now. At its core, YT has always been a cool company but what really set them apart was pricing. The problem is that their financials show this model was a bit of a house of cards, especially now. You can’t run a business long-term with EBITDA margins that barely clear, or even sit below, your WACC (aka, you are making less on your capital than you are spending on it). This is obviously...
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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/31/2025 8:04am
Quick Note - A federal appeals court ruled 7-4 that most of Trump's sweeping global tariffs are unlawful. When I first heard this I thought "this could be really good". As I dug in further, I realized this will be appealed at the Supreme Court. Considering the makeup of the court, I'm guessing the ruling will be reversed. To add, the administration could pivot to alternative legal bases or new EAs to reimpose similar measures (sigh). Hence, my thoughts are to continue operating as if we'll continue to deal with these tariffs head on, as they are currently "on the...
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

NY_Star Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/31/2025 8:03am
I wonder if this increase in price and marginal gain will drive a return to building a bike from the frame up. That has really disappeared post Covid and was pretty rare pre covid for the most part. The complete bike price has been so much lower then the sum of its parts it was impossible to cost effective build a frame only. I know now I'm looking at frame options to upgrade my 2020 enduro bike.... So many parts have been changed at this point a new frame would really freshen up the whole situation. Also YT's current 50%...
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

TEAMROBOT Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/31/2025 8:03am
I don't even think the high dollar bikes have a good margin, when you roll up R&D costs and marketing. Part of the reason they're perceived as being worth the extra $$$$ is because the company has poured a ton of money into convincing customers to think so. A halo-level bike, even a silly one like the $10000 Vado e-bike, is really nothing like a Channel bag. For example, a $15k Cervelo road bike is clearly way too much money and not worth it in any way, shape, or form. It's roughly the same performance as a $2500 Trek, so...
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jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/31/2025 8:00am
My pace of writing is not sustainable but with the long weekend coming up, thought some of you may like to read my pricing predictions post. // Substack // Blog In essence, I'm predicting we are in for some serious sticker shock in 2026; thereafter things begin to look a bit rosier.
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stefkrger Liked a reply to forum topic 2026 Team Rumors

8/31/2025 7:55am
I think it’s almost safe to say that the YT mob in its current form is not going to exist next year. Ric hinting at a turbulent team situation multiple times in today’s broadcast. Vali, Andi and Oisin all very popular riders - male riders maybe not constant podium contenders but very popular with social media and fans, which might be just as valuable. Exciting to see where they end up.
This forum topic has 3192 replies.

Eoin Liked a reply to forum topic 2026 Team Rumors

8/29/2025 11:38am
Plenty of teams would happily drop a rider or two to make space for her with the current focus on team points. I'm sure Trek would be more than happy to take her back, seeing how their season is going.
This forum topic has 3192 replies.

BGoldstone Liked a reply to forum topic 2025 Race Talk

8/29/2025 5:00am
Lol, wtf am i getting dragged into this for. But gives me a better idea of who went to the hassle to make a fake linkedin a few months ago to sh** talk me there of all places. As far as which US races get points, go to the UCI calendar on the uci website and filter down to the mtb races specific to the US (or any country you want). It'll tell you which class it is. Last couple pages of the rule book UCI MTB Regulations will tell you how many points that event is worth. earlier in...
This forum topic has 2616 replies.

boozed Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/28/2025 3:52am
"While you were partying, I ̶s̶t̶u̶d̶i̶e̶d̶ ̶t̶h̶e̶ ̶b̶l̶a̶d̶e̶ designed an electric road bike." As for the loss of SLX, there was too much fragmentation going on even in Shimano's four "serious" MTB groupsets. Each added feature was a new product level. Chances are if you want one of the features of XT that Deore doesn't have, you want all of them. SLX did have the nicest paint colour though, so that's a shame.
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

sspomer Liked a reply to forum topic 2026 Team Rumors

8/27/2025 3:16pm
securing the location may have to do with a rumored multinational conglomerate sponsor from the area founded in 1938.
This forum topic has 3192 replies.

LePigPen Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/27/2025 3:15pm
(should have transferred it to ownership by YT US before the bankruptcy... there's some kind of joke in here somewhere, about YT selling the race truck to stay afloat but the owner keeping every one of his toys, hm)
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

chriskief Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/27/2025 3:15pm
Not sure if this is racing chat or YT bankruptcy discussion... but it sounds like the fancy YT truck is not at the race this weekend. Wonder why...
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

TEAMROBOT Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/27/2025 3:15pm
One of the reasons I think Jeff's right about the barbell theory of pricing is that there's so much stinking money out there at the top end of the tax brackets right now. There's a shocking amount of people who live in Makebelieveland and are just looking, itching, for new ways to burn money. There are so many people for whom a $10000 Vado Sl 30 pound e-bike is a rounding error. And for people like this, having the newest, the most expensive, or the most exclusive can serve as the entire USP for a product purchase. Bike companies will...
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

Brian_Peterson Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/27/2025 10:05am
I can't help but wonder if getting ride of SLX was based on SKU reduction or if the production costs were too close to XT to justify having both....
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

jeff.brines Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/27/2025 10:05am
I can't reply to this without derailing the thread into something I don’t intend. I also don’t care to 'defend' all Marc’s ideas, implied, explicit, or otherwise. Giant waste of time, even if I do feel you are painting him in a light that isn't totally accurate. The point I was making is that I’m not going to do mental gymnastics to ensure every author, economist, professor, VC, CEO, or personality passes some arbitrary moral or ethical purity test to be worth including here. At its best, this is a thread of ideas with application to the economics of the...
This forum topic has 5102 replies.

john_likes_bikes Liked a reply to forum topic Tire chat (nerds only)

8/27/2025 10:04am
From pit bits
This forum topic has 1826 replies.

sspomer Liked a reply to forum topic 2026 Team Rumors

8/27/2025 10:04am
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This forum topic has 3192 replies.

Lacanuck24 Liked a reply to forum topic 2026 Team Rumors

8/27/2025 10:02am
In this current format of team/rider eligibility, no chance of locals racing year one. IF someone is inspired and has deep enough pockets to go get some UCI points, then maybe in year three, a slim chance at year two. There's little to no support for local riders. I'd put my money on one of two local juniors if they hit the gym and move abroad to train and collect points since they've both already outgrown the local parks. If it were ten years ago, there were two riders who'd be able to line up in Pro. One, Park Jun...
This forum topic has 3192 replies.

piratetrails Liked a reply to forum topic The Bikeconomics (Mega)Thread

8/27/2025 6:54am
Love the graphs and graphics. Like an outdoor sports version of Scott Galloway. chefs kiss Shimano getting rid of SLX is def a sign of the barbell effect.
This forum topic has 5102 replies.