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I'm pretty sure that's the same chainring guard that came on the $500 Scattantes we slung at Performance Bike in 2008.
Regarding SLX, I also remember around that time when it came out. It was just an LX replacement, moving that group to the higher end trekking/touring market, which I assume is more of a Euro thing than North America. Shimano probably should have dropped it with the introduction of HG+ shifting. I'm all for the reduction in artificial "levels" of bike parts in favor of more sophisticated consumer decisions. Parts tiers imo are what lead to race-to-the bottom shopping where the bikes are essentially commodified, and if someone gets an "XT bike" for the same price as someone else's "Deore bike" then it's a bad deal, regardless of the whole package, plus the speccing of lower tier or off-brand cassettes, chains, etc.I don't think this serves the industry or the consumer.
My pace of writing is not sustainable but with the long weekend coming up, thought some of you may like to read my pricing predictions post.
//Substack
//Blog
In essence, I'm predicting we are in for some serious sticker shock in 2026; thereafter things begin to look a bit rosier.
Prices aren't already shocking?
I don't fully agree with all of Francis's opinions about why bikes/ebikes are so expensive, but I do agree with him that we have been conditioned to accept some ridiculous pricing.
Pricing might be shocking in today's dollars but on an inflation adjusted basis its absolutely insane how much performance we get at the ~$3,000-4,500 price point, especially if you buy a "COVID bike". I'm as nerdy as they come, and my GX Spire is an amazingly capable bike, one I can throw all the money in the world at and be no faster on. My story is not unique, $4,000 is the same today as $2,400 was 20 years ago. While that amount is nothing to scoff at, we are getting so much more net performance for our inflation adjusted dollar its dizzying.
As to "we've been conditioned" hence this is why we pay high prices, I firmly do not believe this, at least in the part of the market I buy at. The proof is right there on the income statements of these companies. Net margins are razor thin for most manufacturers, with Giant's getting exceedingly close to their cost of capital (Fox, as an example, is better, but its not crazy). If these brands had conditioned us, the same way LVMH had conditioned their customers, we'd see far higher net margins (like 2-6x as high). Now, to be fair to you and to Francis, at the high end we do see higher net margins, sometimes closer to luxury brands, but in some ways this has to be the case to makeup for very thin volume and constant tooling changes. To add, the high end of the market has always been shocking, and will remain as such. But you are going to get less and less for your high end dollar as time goes on.
Now, do I think we could get substantially cheaper bikes than we have now with just as good performance? Absolutely. Its at the bottom of my post. That said, I don't think people quiet understand the manufacturing and materials requirements in the space; its closer to aerospace than bottom-of-the-line automobile stuff.
If anyone wants me to unpack this further, I'm happy to.
Cheers - thx for the comment and happy holiday weekend!
I totally agree with your opinion on the overall pricing of the market Jeff. I'm quite outspoken that the quality of bikes and components we get for inflation adjusted prices is absolutely insane. Obviously Specialized $14k USD top end bikes are not good value for money, but the quality of engineering and construction on $4k bikes is pretty insane.
Overall the sporting goods market is very competitive with low overall margins, and I think bikes and mountain bikes perfectly encapsulate that space of mass manufacturing with high competition and constant R&D costs to be competitive, creating a low margin industry.
Thank god we aren't in the luxury fashion market. Channel isn't exactly hiring engineers and material specialists to design that new handbag that has increased in price almost 3x since COVID.
Your comment about LVMH made me chuckle. Many years ago I decided I was going to buy a particular Zenith wristwatch once I reached an important life milestone. It was already silly money, more than five times as much as I'd ever spent on a watch, but when the time came it had almost doubled in price so I gave up on the idea altogether. Inflation and currency fluctuation during the same period would have accounted for maybe a third of the increase. Everyone wants to be Rolex these days (even the Japanese!) When the technology is stagnant and the only path to growth is gouging your customers, I think you will eventually have a serious problem on your hands.
Back on topic, while a lot of the recent improvements in MTB capability are (fortunately) in improved geometry and kinematics, it's frustrating that while the technology in the parts trickles down to less expensive options over time, many of the other very important features that enhance reliability, longevity and serviceability don't, or at least that's my perception.
I don't even think the high dollar bikes have a good margin, when you roll up R&D costs and marketing. Part of the reason they're perceived as being worth the extra $$$$ is because the company has poured a ton of money into convincing customers to think so. A halo-level bike, even a silly one like the $10000 Vado e-bike, is really nothing like a Channel bag.
For example, a $15k Cervelo road bike is clearly way too much money and not worth it in any way, shape, or form. It's roughly the same performance as a $2500 Trek, so it would be easy to assume it's a fundamentally similar bike with similar fixed costs and a wild markup. But... no. Cervelo had to sponsor Visma Lease A Bike and churn out a new TT frame, aero road frame, and climbing frame every couple years, and each new frame has to be competitively in touch with the best new bikes in the world for their customers and for Visma to want to keep coming back to Cervelo.
And Cervelo doesn't sell that many bikes. Those very large line items in marketing and R&D are only being spread across a fraction of the sales of the bigger brands. The same is still true (albeit to a lesser degree) for S-Works models from Specialized or top-of-the-line frames from Trek, Giant, etc. I know the bigger brands sell more volume, and in theory the Tour coverage helps sell $600 commuter bikes, but the bigger brands also spend a lot more than Cervelo in the arms race. And I know that, at the shop level, markups are actually tighter for halo bikes than for low-end commuters. I think that speaks to the underlying cost structure of those bikes. Volume always wins due to economies of scale, and halo bikes are (definitionally) low volume.
All of this is even more true for mountain bikes. Still huge R&D and marketing expenditures, but much smaller overall sales than the road side, and no one's buying a Specialized Sirrus because of Loic beating Jackson on the new Demo.
I wonder if this increase in price and marginal gain will drive a return to building a bike from the frame up. That has really disappeared post Covid and was pretty rare pre covid for the most part. The complete bike price has been so much lower then the sum of its parts it was impossible to cost effective build a frame only.
I know now I'm looking at frame options to upgrade my 2020 enduro bike.... So many parts have been changed at this point a new frame would really freshen up the whole situation.
Also YT's current 50% off deal is truly insane. Maybe trying to make some quick cash for old inventory to clear the books, or some death twitches. Time will tell.
Trek has recently lowered prices in Switzerland and sometimes even increased the value of the components at the same time, i.e. the Madone SL 6 used to be 4999 with 35mm deep wheels, in 2026 the bike is now 4799 and comes with 50mm deep wheels. Is this also happening in other markets or just a currency adjustment due to the Swiss Franc performing a lot better against the failing Dollar?
Everything I write is through the lens of a US consumer. If you are elsewhere in the world, you can throw a lot of what I write out the window. IE, in Europe your currency is ~10% stronger vs the USD and your various governments aren't changing course with respect to tariffs depending on which direction the wind is blowing.
I'd expect Euro pricing into next year to be about the same as pricing right now. Of course, companies like Trek may be able to discount product simply because FX makes the product cheaper in local currency. It takes fewer Euros (or Francs) to equal the same number of dollars Trek was previously aiming to receive per item sold.
So many moving parts.
Total side note but I really would love to take a peek at Trek's financials. No idea what is happening over there but they've long left me scratching my head.
Quick Note - A federal appeals court ruled 7-4 that most of Trump's sweeping global tariffs are unlawful. When I first heard this I thought "this could be really good". As I dug in further, I realized this will be appealed at the Supreme Court. Considering the makeup of the court, I'm guessing the ruling will be reversed. To add, the administration could pivot to alternative legal bases or new EAs to reimpose similar measures (sigh).
Hence, my thoughts are to continue operating as if we'll continue to deal with these tariffs head on, as they are currently "on the books".
Not positive. Constitution is pretty clear that congress has power of the purse for both taxes and sanctions. That said the Supreme Court has outstandingly low approval ratings for a reason. So a wishy washy justification why trump can tax Americans but Biden can’t forgive Americans debt is entirely feasible.
It will be interesting to see how the Supreme Court looks at this.. Remember, there are a couple of right leaning justices who are known to to be constitutionalists and have ruled against Trump..
Looking at the top end pricing on the new Fuel, Trek might be tightening up it's margins a bit.. I know several companies have been trying to absorb as much of the tariffs as possible to avoid pricing themselves out of the game at a retail level.
Had someone try to tell me that shops were making a 50% margin on top end bikes.. Spending most of the last 15 years managing 3 different shops, I can say that never happens. I have a friend who works for a high end shop in an area that has some good high end income customers tell me that at the end of the year, the S-works stuff is, at best, a break even deal for them..
Fun fact, my friends dad is on that federal appeals court bench, and normally it is the sleepiest job in the federal government, because they only oversea boring maritime trade law and cases of contested ownership or liability between international corporations, etc.
This time, ruling on Trump's sweeping tariff regime, was a little bit spicier than normal.
That's wild to hear. Dang.
What? The S-works part?
The reality is, the more expensive the bike, typically the margins get a bit lower, but they will tell you that you are profiting a couple grand.. But, how long does that bike sit on the floor? Then, the bill comes due.. They want their money... Specialized has their bills to pay too... Not to mention they have a pretty hefty payroll to cover... So, does the shop cut a deal to move the bike at a lower price to get that handled? More often than not, yes.. Or, it sits for the better part of the year and they have to discount it before a new color or model hits.. Dog eat dog world for the shops..
50% is a bit much, lower it to 40ish and it can be true (i work in a suggested retail price only store, we only discount stuff if we have odd sizes left or are forced to by companies like trek who reduce their prices of current bikes in the middle of the season, at least they offered margin compensation when they did it this year again)
Only time I ever saw 40ish was on lower end stuff.. I've seen a few companies offer even better on some entry level bikes, but I can't confirm that number as we weren't a dealer.
we have 11 stores so we buy a lot of volume
That certainly makes a difference. Adds a couple points to the margin.
YT doubling down, doing an 'online garage sale'. Most things are not in stock. Only one bike is MSRP and it's not even in stock, the carbon DH. And the new Bosch eebz are seemingly all 'pre-order'. Effectively out of stock just like the old ebikes. Literally doing everything they can to avoid the L word. Something something other shoe something dropping.
Vali’s post race interview was very negative. Even caught Gwin and the host lady by surprise. She said the summer break could not have gone worse and mentioned the team situation. Their truck was not in Les Gets. Clearly a lot more going on than we see, and none of it good.
i feel bad cuz she seemed happier on YT... she's probly looking at switching teams next season and has reduced leverage on 'price' being that she 'needs a team more than any team outright needs her'.
Aaron Gwin looking over at her struggling with YT like... First time?
I dunno, being in the UK your comment about inflation was on point. I made a comment post covid on the other site about what great value my Specialized Pitch was in 2007.
Someone replied that when inflation was taken into consideration you could buy a better specced and better performing bike for less (I don't recall the bike, but it was in that $3-4000 bracket). I found this hard to believe, but when I looked into it, to my surprise they were right.
I don't know if anyone else is experiencing this, but the site is telling me I've blocked sethimus' comments when I haven't consciously done so. When I click on his profile it gives me an option to block, why give that option when the site seems to think I already have (message reads "you have blocked this", so I don't think it's a threshold issue)?
I noticed the same thing with Bizutch's comments on another thread earlier in the week. I know they could both be accused of the occasional contentious comment 😂, but I haven't purposely blocked either of them. Anyone else seeing the same thing on their feeds?
Sorry for the derail, it just seems weird.
Edit; I just went to the Les Gets thread and comments from sethimus are visible to me, came back here to edit and his comments on this thread are no longer blocked. Strange.
When you calculate comparative bikes through out time with inflation, they follow inflation shockingly perfect. Or literally get cheaper, but of course for various reasons many people have less buying power, even if bikes are cheaper. And of course if you go back further when things were developing/changing a lot with new tech, it gets even more expensive to have your common carbon build, 1x drivetrain, dropper, etc. People paid a LOT for 'less' back then lol, doesn't mean the bikes weren't rad.
It's a shame how people seem willfully ignorant of the concept in order to support their narrative, to the extent I think people just lie. They have a rough understanding of inflation, but they can't get mad on the internet if they run the numbers.
Also you know they've jumped the shark once they have to bring up the 10k+ Sworks and Pivot bikes/ebikes. That is the final strawman of an an online MTB trolls career. As well as trying to compare it against the worst/cheapest dirt bike they can find so they can go LOOK LOOK WHY NUMBER BIGGER. Nearly a weekly occurrence on the other site. Actually don't see a ton of it here... (knocks on wood)
I sometimes think it's also just a combination of rose tinted classes and not consciously running the numbers.
I'm aware inflation is a thing and my grocery bill is now shocking in absolute terms compared to "back in the day" but at the same time I can't quite wrap my head around a $10K bike even if it's better value than the $5K one from way back when....
One thing that helps me is to think if it in terms of pay; so a bike costs N days of pay now, is that more or fewer days of pay than X years ago...
(And yes, all sorts of caveats wrt to the value of "a day of pay" but I find it useful...)
Well I think the biggest thing that is missed in this conversation is the caliber of bike you CAN get for let's say... 3k. To kinda offset sales and d2c and stuff, let's just say 3k today. 25 years ago that would be like ~1600. 10 years ago it would be ~2200. You can get a Status 170 or base Stumpy or whatever 'entry level' bike that WIPES the floor with stuff people may have been putting 5k in 'old money' into back then.
So yeah not only are bikes, generally, the 'same price' as the always were... But notably we are not having to pay 'extra' for these 1x drivetrains and droppers and fancy air suspension with more clickers than most riders know what to do with and carbon frames with burrito storage etc. Whereas in 2015 your Giant Trance was simply running 2x/3x unless you paid over 4k (10 years ago)... For the privilege. They were still selling Reigns with 2x for nearly 5k 10 years ago... Cheapest 1x was 6k lol
Same with Norco Range. 4k+ for 2x build. ~5500 for 1x
So even if bikes WERE more expensive, which they simply aren't... The good news is there's hardly any reason to buy the 5k-10k bikes nowadays. It's so marginal. Outside of the obvious like... Enthusiast racing which is... Shit I'd rather have a mountain biking habit than like cars or motorcycles or audio systems or whatever people do lol
But the average user can spend well under 5k, especially right now honestly like 2k-2500 (which is ~1500 10 years ago and ~1100 25 years ago) and get 99% of the bike you will get spending ~7500 (which may say some other things about current innovation but thats fine, maybe we can settle on some standards/measurements for ONCE lol)
I see a few things...
The first the mindset that there's nothing but $10k bikes out there.. Meanwhile, there are a bunch of bikes out there that can give you 90% or more of the performance at a fraction of the price.. I guess you can't flex at the trailhead without that big price tag..
I remember when $3k was the most expensive bike on the shop floor... I'd gladly take a 3k bike today over anything from back then at that price..
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