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The big hold up as far as I understand is drivetrain components. I know this has been discussed a lot, but I took the warnings last year about potential shortages semi-seriously and ordered new chains, brake pads, and other consumables for the bike to hold me over this year. My friend tried to order a 12 speed chain two months ago and was told he might get it by mid-summer. From what I understand some popular stuff (like GX/X01 and Force/Rival SRAM cassettes, chains, and derailleurs) are on backorder to 2022 already in Canada.
I even placed an order on Rival eTap the morning it was officially released, and I was told I *might* get everything by December. Lol. At least it was an upgrade and not a part of a new build!
Frame is expected end of this month so I guess there's still time......
I should have specified that my knowledge of tire inventory was based on a Canadian distributor's stockpile since that is where my LBS is.
The moral of the story is: buying today for next year is better than buying tomorrow for 2023 😐
Also, the forecasting/demand planning people in manufacturing are using the last 12 months as the barometer when we have to expect demand to cool down sooner than later?
Marketing have to keep the pennies rolling in.
Forecasting (which is essentially trying to predict the future), is incredibly difficult under the best circumstances. In the present situation, there's almost zero detail on what the product will look like 2+ years from now other than the vaguest of details ("so-and-so will have a new dropper at that price point, and we presume it will be lighter and/or have shorter insertion and more travel"), so it's like throwing darts... blindfolded... at a moving target... and you're drunk.
JP
I'm wondering if the lack of inventory will lead to an implosion rather than a boom, as the new riders discover (1) they can't fix what they've got and (2) partying at the clubs is way easier. That could lead to dumping of all the inventory that arrives late, when all the buyers have moved on to other hobbies....
I don't think it's a scam or false advertising because that would only work for short-term gains and could reasonably blowup in the long term. Plus, if it were fake then I don't think brands would be holding off on bike launches as that's what makes them money. We have also seen many bikes launch with limited spec options, and many brands have decided not to stock a certain frame/group combo so that the better selling options can exist. The most noticeable one to me has been cyclocross bikes - every brand has only one or two build kits this year because they would rather put their eTap/GRX components on a better selling category in gravel.
And for sure there are parts out there for replacements, but as many have said you have to ship around with new/different brands. That's fine for an individual, but it would not work well for a business that's trying to source 10,000+ kits with consistent spec at a consistent price.
The best solution would be for the factories in Asia to invest in expanding current production lines or opening new facilities, but almost all seem reluctant to do so for fear that this spike in demand will disappear before they can recoup their investments. It's a hell of a Catch-22.
JP;
In addition to that, the big online retailers order hundreds (let's assume on some sort of leverage, i.e. debt). Some of these retailers are nice enough to list their actual inventory. So - for example - I can't get a GX rear derailleur anywhere in the traditional supply chain, but retailer X has 200 of them. Good for them I suppose, but now I need to direct my customers to buy the part retail and bring it in for installation, so further cutting shop income.
I had a conversation yesterday with a fishing shop owner. He told me that a few years ago when the big online / retail stores got into swing they would snap up inventory in seconds when it appeared at distribution; smaller shops weren't getting anything unless they sat red-eyed at their computers with fingers hovering over the "buy" button. The manufacturers intervened and now allow controlled area distribution.
So right now, the bike boom may just be self-created with the feeding frenzy being a product of lousy buying policies being pushed at LBS along with online retailers looking to cash in on the gold rush. I share the manufacturer's concern that investing in additional capacity might not be a good idea, but in addition to that I fear that the online marketplace may become flush with businesses dumping inventory at or below wholesale values to save themselves from bankruptcy (or as part of it.)
I could be totally off base, but the historical outcomes of bubbles and gold rushes are out there to compare to.
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