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Edited Date/Time
12/31/2014 7:27am
Long title question, I know, but I often wonder about it and the future of DH.
Gwin wasn't a life-long mountain biker and he basically showed up out of nowhere, making his presence known on the World Cup in his first season. Yeah he had BMX and moto experience, but Cody Warren showed Gwin a downhill bike a year or two earlier, then Gwin top 10'd(!) at his first World Cup DH (Mont Sainte Anne, 2008) with not much other than a couple local races under his belt. His performance wasn't a one-hit-wonder, as we all know, since he went on to be a major force on the World Cup circuit.

Gwin at MSA in 2008
Is an "out of nowhere" performance like Gwin's possible in this day and age with all the training and focus? We had Palmer's performances back in the day (during what some consider the most competitive days of the World Cup ever), so I guess this same question could have been asked back then, too. Gwin would have answered the question.
Could there be someone out there who barely knows what a DH bike is right now yet could be on the World Cup podium in 2 or 3 years?
Gwin wasn't a life-long mountain biker and he basically showed up out of nowhere, making his presence known on the World Cup in his first season. Yeah he had BMX and moto experience, but Cody Warren showed Gwin a downhill bike a year or two earlier, then Gwin top 10'd(!) at his first World Cup DH (Mont Sainte Anne, 2008) with not much other than a couple local races under his belt. His performance wasn't a one-hit-wonder, as we all know, since he went on to be a major force on the World Cup circuit.

Gwin at MSA in 2008
Is an "out of nowhere" performance like Gwin's possible in this day and age with all the training and focus? We had Palmer's performances back in the day (during what some consider the most competitive days of the World Cup ever), so I guess this same question could have been asked back then, too. Gwin would have answered the question.
Could there be someone out there who barely knows what a DH bike is right now yet could be on the World Cup podium in 2 or 3 years?
All that said, I'd be stoked if somebody did blaze onto the scene like Gwin in '10/'11. It makes for exciting racing.
I've always felt that the bike handling standard for BMX and moto is higher than mountain bike. I would not be surprised if in the next few years a mid-level BMX or moto guy picks up a mountain bike and becomes a top contender, kinda like Gwin. While that is a somewhat depressing thought, I have to remind myself that mountain biking is much younger than those other two disciplines. We're still in the fast growth phase of our life cycle whereas those other two have had more time to build and establish higher standards. We'll get there too, we're just a little behind, which makes it easier for a BMX or moto guy to port his talents over and excel.
But as to a relative new comer doing it , would say chances are slim but not impossible
I believe that the way riders are being coached in the AGD (After Gwin Domination) has a lot to do with getting their heads in the game, and making sure they can draw on the physical training through mental focus to achieve results. Nigel (CRC manager) discussed Sam's mental game a lot throughout the season, and look at how that turned out - same with the people close to Josh: lots of talk about confidence, ease of mind/lack of stress, etc.
Darren Roberts dedicated one of his columns in Dirt to this subject of metal stability/strength/fortitude, and frequently alludes to it in his other writings. We tend to look at athletes as physical machines that perform with fuel and metal/carbon - forgetting that these are people with lives and people-problems, so sometimes, being super fit isn't always enough. Sports psychology has take off in a big way in recent years, and for good reason: an athlete with a strong headspace is an athlete that can perform at, and over, their potential consistently and without hesitation. Brains, not brawn, will surprisingly win out in sports more often than not.
So with that in mind, yes, someone stil can, in my opinion, jump into the WC scene as an unknown and put up crazy results
Look at Manon Carpenter: one of her dayIntheLifeOfVids indicates she sees a pyschologist, which I'm assuming to mean she gets as much professional help with her mental preparedness as she does with her physical conditioning.
There's only so much existing tracks can challenge the riders on a physical level, and year-in year-out racing levels the mental approach to the same track in just as big a way. Maybe the new challenger will have to enter at a time when there is a wholesale change to the tracks on both a physical and mental level, ie, more tracks look like Dan Atherton's Hardline track.
To use a comic book analogy, A new hero needs a new villain, and maybe we need a villainous change to the tracks before that hero steps up
But as Gwinn showed, it starts with jesus.
And ping pong. Jesus and ping pong. Moto and bmx are cool and all but mastery of jesus and ping pong go a lot farther than people realize.
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