Simulated Racer - World Champs Edition: Champéry

In simulated racer we tell the stories which could have been for each race. We do this by cherry-picking each rider's fastest split times from any run across their entire race weekend to simulate their fastest hypothetical run. For example, in Les Gets, we learned that Max Harternstern had unmatched potential that he couldn't quite capitalize on come finals.

But, World Champs is a little different. With timed training runs not being published and riders only requiring a top 80 place in qualies to make it through to finals (meaning they don’t push as hard), the bank of data to simulate runs is non-existent. So, in this short express edition, we are instead going to tell the story of the race.

By stitching together the fastest split times from every rider in Champéry, we can construct the theoretical "ultimate downhill run". This isn't just about individual potential; it's about the raw, collective speed hidden within the entire elite field.

Elite Men

Quite simply, Jackson Goldstone had the near perfect race run. He had the fastest splits on four out of five sections of any rider over the course of the weekend. For those who watched the race, this lack of variability is perhaps unsurprising. Jackson’s secret jump line in the first sector and the way he floated across the razor thin open grass bank in the fourth sector was poetry in motion.

The only sector Jackson lost time on was sector 2, where he dropped 0.703s seconds on Henri Kiefer. Interestingly, this loss is bigger than Loic’s loss of 0.305s we observed in the equivalent “ultimate run” in Andorra (from the Andorra edition of simulated racer). But as we also learned in the Andorra article, the steeper technical tracks have much bigger winning margins, meaning there is more time on the hill to play with, so this is perhaps unsurprising.

It begs the question: given the greater variance in times on tracks like Champéry, was Jackson’s or Loic’s "ultimate run” loss margin more impressive? In other words, who was closest to the ultimate run for the given track?

We can never know this because it is like comparing apples and oranges. But, for fun, we can crudely approximate the answer by calculating the ultimate run loss margins as a percentage of the variance in riders times on the track. In this instance, we will use the spread in the top 5 times for each race as the metric of variance:

• Champéry:  0.703 (ultimate run margin) / 4.777 (Top 5 spread) * 100 = 14.7%
• Andorra: 0.305 (ultimate run margin) / 2.508 (Top 5 spread) * 100 = 12.2%

These data suggest there is basically nothing in it between Jackson’s and Bruni’s runs. They were both equally near-perfect.

Elite Women

Unlike the men’s field, the elite women's field showed much greater variability in performance come finals. While Valentina Höll secured the fastest run in finals with a 207.14s (3:27.14s), the ultimate race run would have clocked in at 204.72s (3:24.72), 2.42 seconds faster.

The Story of the Race

By analysing the time each rider lost to the leader in each section during finals, we can see where the race was truly won and lost.

Elite Men

For the Elite men, section 3 showed the greatest variance in times. Sections 1, 4, and 5 showed the least variance. But, given these were the shortest sections on track, this is to be expected.

While the ridgeline plot above is great for seeing the general distribution of times, the sina plot below allows us to draw each rider as a point while still visualising distributions (albeit in a different way). Here, we can more clearly see that Jackson won the race in section 3, pulling the biggest time gap on the competitors of any split, by a fair margin. His sneaky jump line in section 1 and incredible balancing act on the grass banks of stage 4 may have looked impressive on screen, but they were not as important as what he did in section 3!

Elite Women

Just as with the Elite Men, we see the same shape distributions in time gaps from the leader  with the Elite Women. Again, given the length of sectors in the course, this is unsurprising.

Also as was done for the Elite Men, a sina plot can also be drawn up for the Elite Women. Curiously here we see that Valentina likely won her race in section 2. Given the brevity of this section in comparison to section 3 and the bigger time gap, you could arguably say that Valentina put down the relative strongest performance on any sector across the whole Elite field.

How Does Champéry Compare?

In addition to viewing the distributions between sections within each race, we can compare how the distributions vary between each race of the 2025 season (here, Elite Men):

We observe that Champérty shows the greatest variance and spread of times of all the races so far in the 2025 season for the Elite Men. I suspect this is largely an artifact of there being 80 riders competing in the World Champs final, versus the 30 that compete in the World Cup rounds. In any case, this spread creates for more varied results, and depending upon your view point, more exciting racing.

Is World Champs a Young Riders Game?

The sentiment that downhill is a young riders game has been echoed in many different places. On the surface, this seems to make intuitive sense. Just look at the Elite Men’s podium in Champéry, it had an average age of just over 21!

To put this claim to the test for Champéry, we can plot age against race time in Finals:

The observant might spot what looks like a very loose positive linear trend. However, if we fit a linear regression to the data, we find that age only explains 5% of the variance in race time, and the relationship is non-significant (p = 0.226).

The same non-significant relationship also holds true for the Elite Women:

After a tough season, Myriam Nicole put on an amazing performance, just missing out on the top step, with a solid second place finish at the age of 35. All told, while the upcoming youth no doubt have insane bags of talent, the older racers are still giving them a run for their money.

Lenzerheide Predictions

As the action at Lenzerheide draws near, it's time to make your picks for the Vital MTB Fantasy League. This upcoming race is set to be a pivotal one, with several riders looking to make their mark on the overall standings. Here's a look at some of the key contenders and angles to consider:

Men's Field

• Ronan Dunne: In exceptional form this season, Dunne is a strong candidate for a podium finish. His consistent performance makes him a reliable choice for your fantasy team.
• Jordan Williams: Williams is no stranger to success at Lenzerheide, having secured his first Senior World Cup win here in 2023. With a strong 4th place finish at Champéry, he's a rider to watch.
• Loic Bruni: After a disappointing result at the World Championships, Bruni is expected to come out with renewed intensity. With a history of strong performances at Lenzerheide, including a 3rd place finish in 2023, he'll be a significant threat.

Women's Field

• Valentina Höll: Having recently found her winning form with a victory in 2025, the big question is whether Höll will push for another win or ride conservatively to secure the overall title.
• Gracey Hemstreet: Hemstreet will be on the hunt for a podium finish and redemption after narrowly missing a medal at the World Championships. She has a proven track record at this venue, finishing 6th here in 2023.

Good luck with your picks, and let us know who you're backing in the comments!