Simulated Racer - Who Capitalized on the Muddy Conditions? - Les Gets Analysis 4

Welcome back to Simulated Racer, the series where we dig into the World Cup race data to uncover the stories that could have been. In this installment, we are going to review the Elite Men's data for a race that many riders have called a "proper downhill track" and one of the hardest races in recent memory.

A note before we begin: the weather at this race created chaos, causing track conditions to be ever-changing over the course of the weekend, with new lines popping up left, right, and center. While this made for some great racing, it makes for some hard analysis. For example, does it make sense to compare qualifying split times to finals? Maybe. But, be that as it may, it is still interesting to run the simulations for this race and speculate about what they could mean.

Simulations

Just like before, we're simulating each rider's "perfect run" by cherry-picking their fastest split times from any run across the entire Les Gets race weekend. The track was broken into five timed sections, and with up to eight recorded runs per rider (from timed training to qualifying and finals), we've got a solid bank of data to pull from. This allows us to combine those fastest segments for a theoretical best-case scenario.

Take Mylann Falquet, for example. His fastest actual run in Q2 was 266.59s (4:26.59). But by piecing together his fastest segments from various runs throughout the weekend, split between Timed Training 1 and Qualifying Rounds 1 and 2, his simulated "perfect run" clocks in at 251.05s (4:11.05) – a 15.54-second improvement. In a sport often decided by milliseconds, this is a significant margin.

Mylann wasn't alone in leaving time out on the course. 61.1% of Elite Male riders (69 out of 113) had a faster theoretical best run than their actual fastest run of the weekend. However, this number is lower than typical for the Elite Men (see previous Simulated Racer articles).

Diving deeper into the data, we can also visualize which riders left the most time on the track:

It isn’t surprising to see Jackson Goldstone in that list. His crash in the upper woods sections on Finals was very uncharacteristic of the young Canadian. Even stranger that it was the same place he crashed during his Q1 too. Is the pressure of Loic getting to him?

The Simulated Showdown

So, if everyone had laid down their absolute fastest possible run, how might the Les Gets race have unfolded?

We can also break down the top 10 simulated results by split time to see what the hypothetical race would have looked like:

Max Hartenstern laid down an absolute heater in Q2, putting 6.72 seconds into the next fastest Q2 qualifier, Jackson. Had Max been able to replicate his form in Finals, could he have beaten Ronan, or was the track just a different beast by this point, and only one that the Irishman could have mastered?

The Ultimate Rider

Let's take this thought experiment a step further beyond individual simulations. By stitching together the fastest split times from every rider, we can construct the theoretical "ultimate downhill rider" for Les Gets. This isn't just about individual potential; it's about the raw, collective speed hidden within the entire elite field.

This ultimate simulated run clocks in at 227.57s (3:47.57). That's 9.2 seconds faster than Ronan Dunne's winning time of 236.59s (3:56.59). This is one of, if not the biggest, margins yet seen at any race this season. More than anything, this proves how much variability and excitement the mud brings to the racing. At least, for the Les Gets track.

The Real Story: Section Four Was Key

While our simulated analysis offers a fascinating glimpse into what could have been, it’s crucial to examine how the race actually unfolded. By analyzing the time each rider lost to the leader in each section during the finals, we can pinpoint where the race was truly won and lost.

The plot above shows us that sections one and five were the least important sections of the race, on average, with the tightest distribution of times (around 3 seconds for section one, and 5 seconds for section five). This seems unsurprising, given that these were the most open sections of the track, perhaps creating the most consistent race conditions.

Sections two, three, and four, mostly consisting of the steep, rooted, muddy woods, in contrast showed the most variability in times. The key stand out section of the race was section two. The top five for that section (Pierron, Dunne, Maes, Kolb and Chapelet), which can be seen as the long flat left tail on the distribution of section two above, put a huge dent into the rest of the field. The next fastest rider in that section, Troy Brosnan was over 2.5s back behind the leader for that section Amaury Pierron.

Amaury Pierron

Speaking of Amaury, he was looking incredibly fast. So fast that the on screen timing showed green for splits two and three. It was looking like he was on for the win until he suddenly got ejected over the bars in a right-hand berm exiting the final woods section.

Given Amaury’s incredible form on this track in similar conditions last year, it begs the question: would he have won again this year had he not crashed? While we can never be sure, let's still put it to the test.

First let’s see how the the splits would have looked like between Dunne, the race winner, and Pierron until the penultimate sector before Pierron crashed:

So, what could Pierron have done in the final two splits? If we take his fastest recorded split times from sections four and five across the weekend and add it to his first three split times from finals, we end up with a time of 234.61s (3:54.61). This is 1.98s faster than Dunne’s final time of 236.59s (3:56.59). Other than section one, which was nearly identical to his Q1 section one time, Amaury was faster in finals for splits two and three. So it would probably have been safe to assume that he may have gone even faster than the time of 234.61s calculated above. But as they say, to finish first, you first have to finish. Dunne’s run was pinned, and he took the well deserved win.

World Champs

With the UCI Mountain Bike World Championships just around the corner, the stakes are higher than ever. It's a wide-open field, and the question on every fan's mind is: who will you put on your Vital MTB Fantasy team?

Will it be Ronan Dunne, whose current form makes him a serious contender? Or maybe Amaury Pierron, hungry for redemption after a missed opportunity in Les Gets? And in case of a classic mud bath, will Martin Maes once again prove his flat-pedal prowess?

But if history has taught us anything, it's that you can never count out the five-time World Champion, Loïc Bruni.

We're just as excited as you are to see how it all unfolds. Join us next time for our special World Championship edition of Simulated Racer, where we'll break down the biggest race of the year.