Simulated Racer - Less Dangerous Than You’d Think - La Thuile Data Analysis

Welcome back to another round of Simulated Racer, the series where we dig into the World Cup race data to uncover what could have been. This week, we're reflecting on La Thuile, a new track on the circuit that quickly garnered a reputation for being a racer's favourite thanks to its average 28% gradient. In this edition, we will inspect both the Elite Men's and Elite Women's results to see who might have left some time out on the course, as well as zoom in on Ronan Dunne, who unfortunately took a nasty crash in the lower woods.

Just like previous installments, we've constructed each rider's "perfect run" by taking their quickest time from each of the five timed sections throughout the race weekend. With up to eight recorded runs (from timed training to finals), we had ample data to create this theoretical best-case scenario. 

To demonstrate this concept, let's look at Andreas Kolb's data. His best recorded run was 220.65s (3:40.65). But when we build his "perfect run" by combining his fastest splits (pulled from Timed Training 1 & 2, and Qualifying Round 1 & 2), he hit a theoretical 216.22s (3:36.22)—a gain of 4.43 seconds. Given that Andreas did not manage to qualify, there is a silver lining knowing his fastest hypothetical run would have been enough to secure him a spot in the finals had he put it all together. 

The Time Left on the Track

Andreas wasn't alone in leaving time out on the hill. 83.8% of Elite Male riders (93 of 111) and 64.3% of Elite Female riders (18 of 28) had a faster theoretical best run than their actual fastest run of the weekend. Despite the track being similar to Val di Sole (steep and tech), these numbers are significantly lower than the average (~97%) faster simulation times seen in Val di Sole in last week's analysis.

Diving deeper into the data, we can also visualize which riders left the most time on the track:

Every rider in the Elite Men’s list above crashed or made a significant mistake during their final race run, so unsurprisingly, we see big time gaps. The Elite Women, on the other hand, show small differences between their final performance and their best theoretical performance. So, if we compare how things actually unfolded versus how they could have unfolded, we see less variability in ranking in the Elite Women than the Elite Men, just like we did last week in Val di Sole:

We can break down the top 10 simulated race times by splits to recreate what the simulated races would have looked like:

The Ultimate Rider

By combining the fastest split times from all riders, we can create a simulated "ultimate downhill rider." For the Elite Men, this hypothetical run clocks in at 205.95s (3:25.95), 1.18s faster than Jackson Goldstone's winning time of 207.13s(3:27.13). For the Elite Women, this run clocks in at 236.94s (3:56.94), also coincidentally around a second faster (0.994s to be precise) than Nina Hoffmann's winning time of 237.93s (3:57.93). It is well established that the times are tight this year, with the top 10 often being separated by only a couple of seconds. These simulated combined fastest race runs for the Elite Men and Women back this up, showing that there really is very little time left to play with in the current crop of riders.

The Real Story

Let's examine the actual race by evaluating the time lost to the leader in each section. This will allow us to pinpoint the specific moments that determined the race's outcome, offering a concrete counterpoint to simulated runs.

In the Elite Men's event, among the riders who didn't lose significant time due to a crash, section 1 was an important sector. It proved to be the most consistent sector, with the tightest band of times. Yet, despite this, we still saw the biggest gap pulled at any split here, with Loris Vergier pulling 0.472s ahead of the next fastest rider, Thibaut Daprela.

For the Elite Women, the race was mostly won in section 4. Here, Nina gapped 0.714s on the next fastest rider, Gracey Hemstreet. Nina also had a solid final split, gapping another 0.482s over Gracey. While most other Women seemed to struggle with fatigue at the bottom of the track, Nina just continued to speed up.

Was La Thuile the Most Dangerous Race of the Season?

Whilst watching the Elite finals on the live stream, it appeared that a large number of the Elite Men crashed. This got me wondering: did more riders crash in La Thuile than in previous races?

As far as I am aware, no data is published on crash statistics at the races (if this isn't true, please drop a comment below with a link to where the data can be accessed). Instead, we can infer this number from inspecting the number of did not finish (DNF) entries and the distribution of time gaps.

Starting with DNFs, measured here as the total number of DNFs across all qualifying and finals runs, we can see that Val di Sole had the highest number (15), with La Thuile in second (10):

We can also analyse the distribution of time gaps from the leader at each final race. La Thuile notably exhibited the highest frequency of substantial time gaps, with three riders finishing over 50 seconds behind the leader due to some pretty scary moments. Specifically, these riders were:

• Bodhi Kuhn: 60.9 seconds behind the leader
• Max Hartenstern: 97.8 seconds behind the leader
• Ryan Pinkerton: 195.98 seconds behind the leader

Collectively, these data suggest that La Thuile was certainly up there as one of the more dangerous races of the season for the Elite Men, but without more concrete crash and injury statistics, it is difficult to say for sure.

One crash that did stand out was that of Ronan Dunne in section 4. He was on a heater of a run, sat in 4th place until he took a huge slam in the woods. Ronan seems to have a reputation of being a wild man, and while his race run in La Thuile certainly had a loose style, I think this reputation doesn’t reflect the reality of his results:

If we look back at his performance over the 2024 and 2025 race seasons, Ronan actually demonstrates incredible consistency. Of the 11 races performed during this time period, he has qualified for finals in every single race and had seven top 10 results, including a win. La Thiule is the first final he has not finished. We wish him a speedy recovery and can't wait to see him back at the races.

All Eyes on Andorra Tomorrow!

Andorra is already upon us, with Fernando Juan Muñoz taking the number one spot in the Elite Men's Q1. Way to go Juan! Here are some other angles to consider if you're looking to make some savvy picks for your Vital Fantasy League:

• Insider advantage: just like last week in La Thuile, Loris Vergier and Loic Bruni have an insider advantage with this being their home track. Given their second and third place results last weekend, and the fact that Loris won the rainbow stripes here least year, it will be hard to count either of them out.
• Breaking records: last week in La Thuile, Jackson matched Aaron Gwin's record of a 4-race win streak in the Elite Men's category. If he wins in Andorra tomorrow, that will make it five in a row. You have to imagine that is lighting a fire in his belly, and you can't count Jackson out of any race this year.
• Redemption: Just like Loris, Vali Höll won the rainbow stripes in Andorra last year, proving she has speed on this track. Her fourth-place qualifying result today puts her in a good position tomorrow to get redemption and take the top spot once again.
• The times are ridiculously tight. It's going to be exciting to compare simulated times against the final results to see how much time was left on the hill once the dust settles.

As ever, keep the feedback coming! Let us know what you like, what you think could be improved, and any ideas you would like to see explored for future races.