Simulated Racer - Consistency Reigns Supreme - Lenzerheide Analysis

Welcome back to another round of Simulated Racer, the series where we dig into the World Cup race data to uncover what could have been. This week, we focus in on Lenzerheide, the last European stop of the season before the riders pack up and head to North America for the last two rounds.

Just like previous installments, we've constructed each rider's "perfect run" by taking their quickest time from each of the five timed sections throughout the race weekend. With up to eight recorded runs (from timed training to finals), we had ample data to create this theoretical best-case scenario. 

To demonstrate this concept, let's look at Davide Palazarri's data. His best recorded run was 175.72s (2:55.720). But when we build his "perfect run" by combining his fastest splits (pulled from Timed Training 1, 2 & 3, and Qualifying Round 1), he hit a theoretical 173.091s (2:53.091)—a gain of 2.63 seconds. 

The Time Left on the Track

Davide wasn't alone in leaving time out on the hill. 75.3% of Elite Male riders (67 of 89) and 64.3% of Elite Female riders (18 of 28) had a faster theoretical best run than their actual fastest run of the weekend. These figures are similar to other races in the circuit:

Diving deeper into the data, we can also visualize which riders left the most time on the track:

Comparing Elite Men and Women (excluding top entries affected by crashes/mistakes), women generally left less time on track—meaning the gap between their actual and theoretical best performances was smaller than the men's. This resulted in less ranking variability among Elite Women compared to Elite Men when comparing actual versus potential race outcomes:

Comparing Elite Men and Women (excluding top entries affected by crashes/mistakes), women generally left less time on track—meaning the gap between their actual and theoretical best performances was smaller than the men's. This resulted in less ranking variability among Elite Women compared to Elite Men when comparing actual versus potential race outcomes:

Regular readers of this series may have spotted an emerging pattern: among Elite Men, riders who finish on the podium generally show matching actual and simulated rankings, while those further back display considerably more variation between the two measures. The Elite Women's field shows even greater consistency—not only do podium finishers align closely, but this correlation frequently continues throughout the top 10 positions.

We can break down the top 10 simulated race times by splits to recreate what the simulated race would have looked like:

The Ultimate Run

Let's take this thought experiment a step further. By stitching together the fastest split times from every rider, we can construct the theoretical "ultimate downhill rider" for Lenzerheide. This isn't just about individual potential; it's about the raw, collective speed hidden within the entire elite field.

In the Elite Men's category, the theoretical fastest possible run comes in at 162.02 seconds (2:42.02)—a full 2.68 seconds quicker than Amaury's victorious 164.70 seconds (2:44.70). After holding the lead for an extended period, Amaury stated in a mid-race interview that he was exhausted by the finish and expected the top riders to beat his time decisively. Remarkably, Amaury didn't claim a single fastest split throughout the entire weekend. His instinct about leaving time on the course appears to have been accurate. Between Jackson's crash and Bruni's seemingly calculated approach, it was surprising that no one managed to push closer to that theoretical limit on the final run.

For the Elite Women, the ultimate run clocks in at 188.98 seconds (3:08.98), 2.60 seconds faster than Tahnee’s winning time of 191.58 (3:11.58). This 2.60 seconds time difference is almost identical to the time differences seen in the elite men (2.68 seconds), suggesting both groups left equal amounts of time on the track.

It's wonderful to see Camille Balanche clock the fastest time in section five on her home track, especially in her final year before retiring from World Cup racing.

The Story of the Race

Let's look at how the race actually unfolded. By analyzing the time lost to the leader in each section, we can pinpoint which sections of track were important in finals, offering a realistic contrast to our simulated "what if" scenarios.

Section one showed the greatest spread in rider times for both Elite categories, evident from the broad, flat distributions. This sector proved decisive for Tahnee in the Elite Women's race, where she established her most commanding margin—1.12 seconds ahead of sector runner-up Valentina Höll. To put this dominance in perspective, that gap was more than twice the advantage seen in sector three, the second largest margin of the race, where Nina Hoffmann outpaced Valentina Höll by just 0.53 seconds.

Pinkerton: What Could Have Been

Ryan Pinkerton faced an unfortunate setback in the finals. As he powered out of the start hut, his wheel appeared to catch the front right timing beam post, causing him to go down immediately. He recovered well though, posting impressive split times in the later sectors, showing great composure. 

Given Pinkerton was showing strong pace throughout the weekend, what could have been had he not clipped that post? Could he potentially have gotten his first Elite win? 

First, let’s examine the time differences in sectors two to five between Pinkerton and Pierron. At first glance, it looks neck and neck with both Pinkerton and Pierron winning two splits:

So, what could Pinkerton have done in the first split? Compared to Pinkerton’s best split times outside finals, on average, he was 1.6% faster in each split during his final run. So, if we take Pinkerton’s fastest recorded split one during the weekend, make it 1.6% faster, and then add it to his last four split times from finals, does this produce a time fast enough to beat Pierron? 

Unfortunately, no. Using the above method, we estimate that Pinkerton might have achieved a final split time of 46.40s (1.6 % faster than his fastest recorded split of 47.15s). That performance would have resulted in a total time of 166.15s (2:46.15s), placing him 1.45 seconds off Pierron's pace. This would have secured 5th place, edging out Loic Bruni and surpassing his previous season-best finish of 6th at Loudenvielle earlier this year.

Off to North America!

That's a wrap on Lenzerheide. After a short intermission, the season concludes with its final two stops in North America—Lake Placid and Mont-Sainte-Anne. For those planning their Vital Fantasy Teams for the season's end, Shaw and Pinkerton merit consideration. Despite both riders showing strong form at Lenzerheide before encountering setbacks in Finals, the home-field advantage could make them solid picks for these closing rounds.