Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

Suns_PSD
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Austin, TX US
1/15/2025 8:55am

I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be quieter, etc. At least on commuter bikes.

Robbie420
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Kamloops CA
1/15/2025 9:07am
Suns_PSD wrote:
I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be...

I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be quieter, etc. At least on commuter bikes.

They are in the MC market. Harley, BMW, Suzuki, and Kawasaki all make belt driven bikes.

4
sspomer
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Boise, ID US
1/15/2025 9:11am

@jeff.brines - from the gates PR below - gives some hints as to their objective - i could see DH being a place to test real-world durability under extreme conditions/stresses.

Belt Drive Technology Leading the Charge in Micromobility

Gates Belt Drive technology is transforming personal and micromobility solutions worldwide. From bicycles and electric bikes to scooters and motorcycles, Gates’ innovative belt drive systems offer grease-free, rust-free, and low maintenance solutions tailored for high performance and durability. The Gates Carbon Drive system stands out as the market's best high-mileage bicycle drive, delivering exceptional reliability for urban commuters, mountain bikers, eBike riders, and casual cruisers alike.

By partnering with top downhill teams, Gates brings its materials science and engineering expertise to the forefront of the sport, challenging traditional chain-driven systems and inspiring a new era of innovation in competitive cycling. For more information about Gates Belt Drive technology or for official €100K Belted Purse contest rules, visit www.gatesbeltdrive.com. #GatesMTB100K #GatesBeltDrive

4
jeff.brines
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Grand Junction, CO US
1/15/2025 9:24am
Suns_PSD wrote:
I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be...

I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be quieter, etc. At least on commuter bikes.

I know Harley is belt driven. As to dirt bikes, not sure. I'm sure you could make it work, but chains are just so reliable, cheap, and functional. Hell, I don't even lube my dirt bike chain (ever) and it works well over 200 hours. Crazy. 

You all interested in a belt drive gearbox thread? I am tempted to take this off the rails talking about it, and I'm so curious if anyone had real world experience with them, that we'll end up in a totally different place quickly.

Paging @sspomer 

1
Robbie420
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Kamloops CA
1/15/2025 9:32am
Suns_PSD wrote:
I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be...

I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be quieter, etc. At least on commuter bikes.

I know Harley is belt driven. As to dirt bikes, not sure. I'm sure you could make it work, but chains are just so reliable, cheap...

I know Harley is belt driven. As to dirt bikes, not sure. I'm sure you could make it work, but chains are just so reliable, cheap, and functional. Hell, I don't even lube my dirt bike chain (ever) and it works well over 200 hours. Crazy. 

You all interested in a belt drive gearbox thread? I am tempted to take this off the rails talking about it, and I'm so curious if anyone had real world experience with them, that we'll end up in a totally different place quickly.

Paging @sspomer 

Gearbox thread is a good idea 

1
dolface
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Location
CA US
1/15/2025 9:38am
Suns_PSD wrote:
I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be...

I wonder why Gates hasn't tried to expand into the motorcycle market, would seem like the upside would be huge? Could save weight, be cleaner, be quieter, etc. At least on commuter bikes.

I know Harley is belt driven. As to dirt bikes, not sure. I'm sure you could make it work, but chains are just so reliable, cheap...

I know Harley is belt driven. As to dirt bikes, not sure. I'm sure you could make it work, but chains are just so reliable, cheap, and functional. Hell, I don't even lube my dirt bike chain (ever) and it works well over 200 hours. Crazy. 

You all interested in a belt drive gearbox thread? I am tempted to take this off the rails talking about it, and I'm so curious if anyone had real world experience with them, that we'll end up in a totally different place quickly.

Paging @sspomer 

Robbie420 wrote:

Gearbox thread is a good idea 

6
Robbie420
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1/15/2025 9:45am
jonkranked wrote:
personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor...

personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor the floodgates would probably open up.

amaranth wrote:

Pinion already has that, the MGU, and it...uhm, hasn't really taken off. 

jonkranked wrote:
was not aware they had one, thanks for the info.  perused the pinion site, aside from commuter and cargo bikes, it appears the only brands making...

was not aware they had one, thanks for the info.  perused the pinion site, aside from commuter and cargo bikes, it appears the only brands making MTBs with it are nicolai, rotwild, bulls, and some company named flyer.  

https://pinion.eu/en/bike-selection/#filter=.bike-getriebe-322

Trinity bikes can use Pinion GB's. But they can also use Effigear and the WRP one being developed 

2
sethimus
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CH
1/15/2025 11:11am
jonkranked wrote:
personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor...

personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor the floodgates would probably open up.

amaranth wrote:

Pinion already has that, the MGU, and it...uhm, hasn't really taken off. 

jonkranked wrote:
was not aware they had one, thanks for the info.  perused the pinion site, aside from commuter and cargo bikes, it appears the only brands making...

was not aware they had one, thanks for the info.  perused the pinion site, aside from commuter and cargo bikes, it appears the only brands making MTBs with it are nicolai, rotwild, bulls, and some company named flyer.  

https://pinion.eu/en/bike-selection/#filter=.bike-getriebe-322

add simplon, tout terrain

1
1
sweaman22
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Calgary , AB CA
1/15/2025 5:34pm

Soft apparel but saw on another website speculation around 661

2
boozed
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AU
1/15/2025 9:21pm

I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team rumours or tech/innovation threads.

Pushy's (the Australian YT distributor) is rumoured (per a reddit comment) to not be restocking YT once the current stock is sold out.  Concurrently, YT's website no longer lists Australia as a selectable region and the former au URL simply redirects to the main www one.

1
1/15/2025 11:23pm
boozed wrote:
I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team...

I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team rumours or tech/innovation threads.

Pushy's (the Australian YT distributor) is rumoured (per a reddit comment) to not be restocking YT once the current stock is sold out.  Concurrently, YT's website no longer lists Australia as a selectable region and the former au URL simply redirects to the main www one.

Assuming yt is taking over to handle it themselves like they did in America a while back now.

3
1/16/2025 12:40am Edited Date/Time 1/16/2025 12:46am

From an outside perspective (with absolutely no clue of internal finances) it would seem to me that YT is probably up there with Trek and Specialized as far as brands I would imagine will weather the current environment just fine. But that’s entirely speculative. They seem to be pretty smart as far as bike releases go, run a frame for a while make special “drop” versions (Uncaged models?) to bring in a little hype, and seem to keep their product overlap to a minimum.

To keep the hype speculative train going @jeff.brines what do you make of Evil bikes at this point? Seems they’ve been awful quiet lately and nothing new released in a while, lots of sales but not a lot of other hype coming out of their social media or anywhere else. Could they be struggling as well? Does anyone know if Kevin Walsh is still involved with the business?

2
boozed
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1/16/2025 1:05am Edited Date/Time 1/16/2025 1:58am
boozed wrote:
I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team...

I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team rumours or tech/innovation threads.

Pushy's (the Australian YT distributor) is rumoured (per a reddit comment) to not be restocking YT once the current stock is sold out.  Concurrently, YT's website no longer lists Australia as a selectable region and the former au URL simply redirects to the main www one.

Assuming yt is taking over to handle it themselves like they did in America a while back now.

YT used to be DtC in Australia, before signing the agreement with Pushy's a few years ago.  Prices went up significantly as a result, and a friend of mine had a hell of a time getting replacement parts for a YT that he bought from Pushy's.  If it really is ending, presumably it hasn't worked out for one or both parties.

1
1/16/2025 1:32am
From an outside perspective (with absolutely no clue of internal finances) it would seem to me that YT is probably up there with Trek and Specialized...

From an outside perspective (with absolutely no clue of internal finances) it would seem to me that YT is probably up there with Trek and Specialized as far as brands I would imagine will weather the current environment just fine. But that’s entirely speculative. They seem to be pretty smart as far as bike releases go, run a frame for a while make special “drop” versions (Uncaged models?) to bring in a little hype, and seem to keep their product overlap to a minimum.

To keep the hype speculative train going @jeff.brines what do you make of Evil bikes at this point? Seems they’ve been awful quiet lately and nothing new released in a while, lots of sales but not a lot of other hype coming out of their social media or anywhere else. Could they be struggling as well? Does anyone know if Kevin Walsh is still involved with the business?

Dunno, but if you're cutting costs, the marketing cost of social media hype is really cheap compared to most of the more traditional forms of marketing.

1
Etney
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Frankfurt DE
1/16/2025 3:18am
From an outside perspective (with absolutely no clue of internal finances) it would seem to me that YT is probably up there with Trek and Specialized...

From an outside perspective (with absolutely no clue of internal finances) it would seem to me that YT is probably up there with Trek and Specialized as far as brands I would imagine will weather the current environment just fine. But that’s entirely speculative. They seem to be pretty smart as far as bike releases go, run a frame for a while make special “drop” versions (Uncaged models?) to bring in a little hype, and seem to keep their product overlap to a minimum.

To keep the hype speculative train going @jeff.brines what do you make of Evil bikes at this point? Seems they’ve been awful quiet lately and nothing new released in a while, lots of sales but not a lot of other hype coming out of their social media or anywhere else. Could they be struggling as well? Does anyone know if Kevin Walsh is still involved with the business?

And not to forget, their bikes are often like a third of the price of other top end brands "best" models as well.

I have however noticed them equipping the latest models slightly different though, more specifically when it comes to wheels. 

In the past, most of their highest core models, or uncaged models had carbon wheels. From what I can see now on their page, none of their bikes have carbon wheels. And only one bike is specced with an X0 transmission groupset, the rest has GX stuff.

Suspension components etc do still seem on the high end. But its quite noticeable that they have pulled back on speccing the best parts in every slot, as they did a few years ago with their highest core/uncaged bike. 

I would still say the value is very good for the most part. I even know some people who have bought YT bikes on sale, just to take the parts of them for a new bike build, and it has been significantly cheaper than buying parts outright. Then just selling the frame for a decent price. 

4
1/16/2025 8:22am
From an outside perspective (with absolutely no clue of internal finances) it would seem to me that YT is probably up there with Trek and Specialized...

From an outside perspective (with absolutely no clue of internal finances) it would seem to me that YT is probably up there with Trek and Specialized as far as brands I would imagine will weather the current environment just fine. But that’s entirely speculative. They seem to be pretty smart as far as bike releases go, run a frame for a while make special “drop” versions (Uncaged models?) to bring in a little hype, and seem to keep their product overlap to a minimum.

To keep the hype speculative train going @jeff.brines what do you make of Evil bikes at this point? Seems they’ve been awful quiet lately and nothing new released in a while, lots of sales but not a lot of other hype coming out of their social media or anywhere else. Could they be struggling as well? Does anyone know if Kevin Walsh is still involved with the business?

Don’t think kevin has been involved in a long time. 

3
jonkranked
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1/16/2025 8:30am
sweaman22 wrote:

Soft apparel but saw on another website speculation around 661

saw that as well. sounds like they've gone quiet? 

just went to their website, its not down, but there's no content and says "coming soon"

Mwood
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Bay Area, CA US
1/16/2025 8:38am
Etney wrote:
And not to forget, their bikes are often like a third of the price of other top end brands "best" models as well.I have however noticed...

And not to forget, their bikes are often like a third of the price of other top end brands "best" models as well.

I have however noticed them equipping the latest models slightly different though, more specifically when it comes to wheels. 

In the past, most of their highest core models, or uncaged models had carbon wheels. From what I can see now on their page, none of their bikes have carbon wheels. And only one bike is specced with an X0 transmission groupset, the rest has GX stuff.

Suspension components etc do still seem on the high end. But its quite noticeable that they have pulled back on speccing the best parts in every slot, as they did a few years ago with their highest core/uncaged bike. 

I would still say the value is very good for the most part. I even know some people who have bought YT bikes on sale, just to take the parts of them for a new bike build, and it has been significantly cheaper than buying parts outright. Then just selling the frame for a decent price. 

@Etney as your in Freiburg, how many YT's are out on the trails in Germany? What bikes are 'in'? 

In the US, we are often in a bubble on other markets. 

hogfly
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Fayetteville, AR US
1/16/2025 9:24am
boozed wrote:
I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team...

I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team rumours or tech/innovation threads.

Pushy's (the Australian YT distributor) is rumoured (per a reddit comment) to not be restocking YT once the current stock is sold out.  Concurrently, YT's website no longer lists Australia as a selectable region and the former au URL simply redirects to the main www one.

Assuming yt is taking over to handle it themselves like they did in America a while back now.

boozed wrote:
YT used to be DtC in Australia, before signing the agreement with Pushy's a few years ago.  Prices went up significantly as a result, and a...

YT used to be DtC in Australia, before signing the agreement with Pushy's a few years ago.  Prices went up significantly as a result, and a friend of mine had a hell of a time getting replacement parts for a YT that he bought from Pushy's.  If it really is ending, presumably it hasn't worked out for one or both parties.

My guess would be that they're going to handle distribution themselves.

I will say that the YT Mill experience is pretty amazing (if you've never been to one). I'm not sure how the financials work on them, since they're basically just a marketing effort without any real profitability, but they've done such an amazing job at the one in Bentonville. They're constantly hosting community activations, parties, dig days, jam sessions, screenings, etc...

For example: this Friday they're screening the new In the Hills Gang film at all the Mills (or at least at Bentonville and San Clemente for sure). And at the Bentonville one, they're also showing two edits by local riding collectives in order to promote the local scene more. The people who work there are all super great and are constantly pushing to provide people with a good experience. It's been wild to see this "big" brand come into town and become like the favorite hangout for local riders, regardless of what bikes they ride.

5
sethimus
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1/16/2025 12:06pm
Etney wrote:
And not to forget, their bikes are often like a third of the price of other top end brands "best" models as well.I have however noticed...

And not to forget, their bikes are often like a third of the price of other top end brands "best" models as well.

I have however noticed them equipping the latest models slightly different though, more specifically when it comes to wheels. 

In the past, most of their highest core models, or uncaged models had carbon wheels. From what I can see now on their page, none of their bikes have carbon wheels. And only one bike is specced with an X0 transmission groupset, the rest has GX stuff.

Suspension components etc do still seem on the high end. But its quite noticeable that they have pulled back on speccing the best parts in every slot, as they did a few years ago with their highest core/uncaged bike. 

I would still say the value is very good for the most part. I even know some people who have bought YT bikes on sale, just to take the parts of them for a new bike build, and it has been significantly cheaper than buying parts outright. Then just selling the frame for a decent price. 

Mwood wrote:
@Etney as your in Freiburg, how many YT's are out on the trails in Germany? What bikes are 'in'? In the US, we are often in a...

@Etney as your in Freiburg, how many YT's are out on the trails in Germany? What bikes are 'in'? 

In the US, we are often in a bubble on other markets. 

Freiburg has probably one of the most "core" riding community with lots of riders investing in high end gear, dunno if that would be representing germany as a whole. it's THE german mtb city with a huge mtb club and lots of legal trails (in a state that has the famous 2m rule, i.e. no trails with less than 2m with = banned as long as not officially allowed)

2
Mwood
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1/16/2025 12:41pm
sethimus wrote:
Freiburg has probably one of the most "core" riding community with lots of riders investing in high end gear, dunno if that would be representing germany...

Freiburg has probably one of the most "core" riding community with lots of riders investing in high end gear, dunno if that would be representing germany as a whole. it's THE german mtb city with a huge mtb club and lots of legal trails (in a state that has the famous 2m rule, i.e. no trails with less than 2m with = banned as long as not officially allowed)

Yep, thats why I ask. What are the core lords riding/whats hip? I lived there in 2013ish and sold my Santa Cruz nomad for a pretty penny as it was ''in', but not available to purchase. 

2
Mwood
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1/16/2025 12:44pm

More of an industry news: Garen from Santa Cruz moves to Orbea -> https://www.linkedin.com/posts/garen-becker-62766740_ahoy-pals-time-flies-after-nearly-20-years-activity-7285336288897966082-C2V1?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

SC is definitely changing directions and will be interested to see what happens in the future. They seem to be bleeding the talent that got them to being the cool fast brand....

Also could be big moves with Orbea and their new team
(Credit to Escape Collective Discord for the sleuth)

8
sethimus
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CH
1/16/2025 2:12pm
sethimus wrote:
Freiburg has probably one of the most "core" riding community with lots of riders investing in high end gear, dunno if that would be representing germany...

Freiburg has probably one of the most "core" riding community with lots of riders investing in high end gear, dunno if that would be representing germany as a whole. it's THE german mtb city with a huge mtb club and lots of legal trails (in a state that has the famous 2m rule, i.e. no trails with less than 2m with = banned as long as not officially allowed)

Mwood wrote:
Yep, thats why I ask. What are the core lords riding/whats hip? I lived there in 2013ish and sold my Santa Cruz nomad for a pretty...

Yep, thats why I ask. What are the core lords riding/whats hip? I lived there in 2013ish and sold my Santa Cruz nomad for a pretty penny as it was ''in', but not available to purchase. 

moved away in 2022 too

Etney
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Frankfurt DE
1/17/2025 12:23am
Mwood wrote:
@Etney as your in Freiburg, how many YT's are out on the trails in Germany? What bikes are 'in'? In the US, we are often in a...

@Etney as your in Freiburg, how many YT's are out on the trails in Germany? What bikes are 'in'? 

In the US, we are often in a bubble on other markets. 

I would agree with Sethimus, that generally whats ridden here maybe doesnt apply everywhere else.

But I've lived in a few places in Europe, and generally its kind of "three phases" or three types of people. People that are somewhat new to the hobby ride a lot of YT/Canyon - Good marketing, and easy to order online, with good pricing. 

Then we have the "middle" phase, people often ride bikes from their local bike shop. So in that specific city, if it has a big Spesh dealer, SC dealer, Trek dealer etc - Thats what you see, and people continue to ride. 

And then the third phase is the bike nerds. Which as Sethimus says, Freiburg has many of. And german made alu bikes seems to be very popular now. Kavenz, Crossworx, Raaw etc. And, obviously people with home town pride, so you tend to see Intend suspension, and trickstuff brakes etc fairly often here. 

(I ride a SC with intend suspension and brakes myself for reference) - Want an alu bike, but not sure which one yet.

5
1/17/2025 12:09pm
boozed wrote:
I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team...

I couldn't figure out where to post this because it's not really about a company shutting down, but it also doesn't make sense in the team rumours or tech/innovation threads.

Pushy's (the Australian YT distributor) is rumoured (per a reddit comment) to not be restocking YT once the current stock is sold out.  Concurrently, YT's website no longer lists Australia as a selectable region and the former au URL simply redirects to the main www one.

Assuming yt is taking over to handle it themselves like they did in America a while back now.

boozed wrote:
YT used to be DtC in Australia, before signing the agreement with Pushy's a few years ago.  Prices went up significantly as a result, and a...

YT used to be DtC in Australia, before signing the agreement with Pushy's a few years ago.  Prices went up significantly as a result, and a friend of mine had a hell of a time getting replacement parts for a YT that he bought from Pushy's.  If it really is ending, presumably it hasn't worked out for one or both parties.

I think theres a bit of drama around YT with Aus/NZ  - Day Zero NZ got dropped by YT and picked up by pushy's so had to pay to ship from aus to NZ - but recently Day zero has it back????
The 'limited' core range is often never available in nz either - carbons seems like a good ish deal when on special but alloys are just as expensive as Other big brands.

No real benefit buying YT in NZ now - We used to get Good value on YT tues' back in 2017 ish so we ran those with no issues.
 

3
1/17/2025 3:21pm

I might be completely wrong but have Santa Cruz given up on Juliana Bicycles? They don't seem to offer many models anymore and the Roubion is still the older version of the bronson.

4
sethimus
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1/18/2025 2:13am
I might be completely wrong but have Santa Cruz given up on Juliana Bicycles? They don't seem to offer many models anymore and the Roubion is...

I might be completely wrong but have Santa Cruz given up on Juliana Bicycles? They don't seem to offer many models anymore and the Roubion is still the older version of the bronson.

what was the point of this brand anyway? afaik they just offered the same frames under a different label unlike liv with purposely designed frames for shorter women

4
sweaman22
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Calgary , AB CA
1/18/2025 7:06am

The frames were the same but I think (others in this thread know more) that the suspension tune was for a lighter rider and the contact points smaller.

Having said that my better half never considered them because your resale market is so much smaller.

9
dolface
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1/18/2025 8:24am
sweaman22 wrote:
The frames were the same but I think (others in this thread know more) that the suspension tune was for a lighter rider and the contact...

The frames were the same but I think (others in this thread know more) that the suspension tune was for a lighter rider and the contact points smaller.

Having said that my better half never considered them because your resale market is so much smaller.

You are correct

3
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