Hearing local rumor that TGR has let go of every employee and is shutting down all retail locations. Not exacty a bike company, but they have made bike movies and are very much "in the scene". I haven't followed their path as closely as I should have considering they are in the backyard, but if memory serves PE money came in at some point, which led to an attempt to brand hotels with the TGR logo, and a number of retail establishments selling hats/tees popped up. Word is they are going back to their roots, founders retain control and very light/minimal staff.
Crazy about TGR, but they’ve definitely gone the fast fashion insane production cycle route of cranking out tons of releases and products. Kind of reminds me of the route Fasthouse is going (though TGT is obviously much bigger).
While I know its easy to jump on the "this is because Apollo owns the brand they are cutting costs" bandwagon, and I'm sure there is truth to Apollo looking a little more short term than a generational founder might, I think we can all agree seemingly every company has had to trim fat no matter who owns the firm. This is not bike specific, btw. Its across the board.
Personally I'd hate to be in the mountain bike suspension manufacturing game. It has to be really challenging. Every company offers pretty aburd warranty relative to any other industry (you get 30 days on a moto for instance), the engineering is complex, manufacturing requires crazy tolerences all things considered, assembly less than easy and the supply chain involves multiple countries, materials, etc.
I'm frankly pumped we have all the options we do, at the prices we do, despite the fact I'll continue to complain about durability being poor (with respect to forks anyway)
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a lot of companies across the bike food chain are having trouble getting rid of old stock and it doesn’t sound like new products are selling well either. It also seems like most of the industries that typical average joes work in are starting/continuing to get hit with layoffs with not much hiring/growth expected for the rest of the year (at least in the states). Adding in the high inflation we’ve been seeing and little technological advancement in the bike industry over the last 5 years; I don’t think customers are going to be able, or willing, to buy much new product outside of the usual consumables. It feels like a lot of the companies hanging on by a thread this year will hit the end of the road.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a...
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a lot of companies across the bike food chain are having trouble getting rid of old stock and it doesn’t sound like new products are selling well either. It also seems like most of the industries that typical average joes work in are starting/continuing to get hit with layoffs with not much hiring/growth expected for the rest of the year (at least in the states). Adding in the high inflation we’ve been seeing and little technological advancement in the bike industry over the last 5 years; I don’t think customers are going to be able, or willing, to buy much new product outside of the usual consumables. It feels like a lot of the companies hanging on by a thread this year will hit the end of the road.
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)
1) Its really hard to decouple the emotion from the business and be pragmatic when shutting something down, especially when there is still a little money left in the bank.
2) The levers those in power pull on have huge lag times. IE, what the Fed does with respect to interest rates is akin to trying to turn left and then the car does so like 10 miles down the road. Slowly. We are finally feeling the real effects of higher rates, which does appear to be squashing inflation but the hit to the jobs side of thing is a lot bigger than I think the numbers show. Of course the bike industry will continue to be impacted by this because outside us lunactics, who would rather starve than not ride, most people are going to forgo their bike/component/fun time purchase.
3) A long time ago one of the big mags made some predictions in the mtn bike space. One recurring prediction was that of consolidation, something more akin to moto. I think we're finally (really) seeing this with the likes of Specialized, Trek, Santa Cruz etc capturing so much of the market and really leaning into scale economies its going to be harder and harder for the little guys, especially frame companies, to keep up. I know I've made this argument before, but it seems truer and truer every year. You can amortize costs a lot easier if you sell 10,000 of something as opposed to 100 of something....and margins ARE under pressure.
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)1) Its really hard to decouple...
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)
1) Its really hard to decouple the emotion from the business and be pragmatic when shutting something down, especially when there is still a little money left in the bank.
2) The levers those in power pull on have huge lag times. IE, what the Fed does with respect to interest rates is akin to trying to turn left and then the car does so like 10 miles down the road. Slowly. We are finally feeling the real effects of higher rates, which does appear to be squashing inflation but the hit to the jobs side of thing is a lot bigger than I think the numbers show. Of course the bike industry will continue to be impacted by this because outside us lunactics, who would rather starve than not ride, most people are going to forgo their bike/component/fun time purchase.
3) A long time ago one of the big mags made some predictions in the mtn bike space. One recurring prediction was that of consolidation, something more akin to moto. I think we're finally (really) seeing this with the likes of Specialized, Trek, Santa Cruz etc capturing so much of the market and really leaning into scale economies its going to be harder and harder for the little guys, especially frame companies, to keep up. I know I've made this argument before, but it seems truer and truer every year. You can amortize costs a lot easier if you sell 10,000 of something as opposed to 100 of something....and margins ARE under pressure.
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)1) Its really hard to decouple...
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)
1) Its really hard to decouple the emotion from the business and be pragmatic when shutting something down, especially when there is still a little money left in the bank.
2) The levers those in power pull on have huge lag times. IE, what the Fed does with respect to interest rates is akin to trying to turn left and then the car does so like 10 miles down the road. Slowly. We are finally feeling the real effects of higher rates, which does appear to be squashing inflation but the hit to the jobs side of thing is a lot bigger than I think the numbers show. Of course the bike industry will continue to be impacted by this because outside us lunactics, who would rather starve than not ride, most people are going to forgo their bike/component/fun time purchase.
3) A long time ago one of the big mags made some predictions in the mtn bike space. One recurring prediction was that of consolidation, something more akin to moto. I think we're finally (really) seeing this with the likes of Specialized, Trek, Santa Cruz etc capturing so much of the market and really leaning into scale economies its going to be harder and harder for the little guys, especially frame companies, to keep up. I know I've made this argument before, but it seems truer and truer every year. You can amortize costs a lot easier if you sell 10,000 of something as opposed to 100 of something....and margins ARE under pressure.
Archer Components Announces Transition to Limited Operations
August 14, 2024 – Santa Cruz, CA – Archer Components, a leader in electronic shifting technology for bicycles, today announced that it will be transitioning to limited operations. While the company will no longer be producing new products, it will continue to sell off its existing inventory and provide service and support from the original garage where the company was founded, for as long as possible. This decision comes after careful consideration of the current market conditions and the evolving landscape of the cycling industry.
In light of this transition, Archer Components is actively seeking potential buyers who are interested in acquiring the company's innovative technologies and continuing its legacy of excellence in the cycling industry. The company is open to discussions with parties who share its vision and commitment to advancing cycling technology.
Since its founding, Archer Components has been dedicated to delivering cutting-edge solutions that have empowered cyclists around the world to enhance their riding experience. The company’s flagship product, the Archer D1x Trail electronic shifter, set new standards for performance and adaptability, making it a favorite among cyclists and bike mechanics alike.
“We are incredibly proud of what we have accomplished at Archer Components,” said Brandon Rodgers, Co-founder and CEO. “Our team has always been driven by a passion for innovation and a commitment to improving the cycling experience. Unfortunately, despite our best efforts, the current market dynamics have made it unsustainable for us to continue full-scale operations. We are deeply grateful to our customers, partners, and the cycling community for their support over the years.”
Archer Components will be working closely with its distributors, retailers, and customers to ensure a smooth transition as the company winds down its larger operations. The company will continue to honor warranties and provide customer support during this period. Detailed information on these processes will be available on the company’s website.
“We couldn’t have done any of this without the talented folks at our shop in Scotts Valley, CA, and the dedicated team from around the world who helped make this a success,” said Devin Carlson, Co-founder and COO.
Archer Components would like to extend its deepest appreciation to the cycling community for its loyalty and enthusiasm. The company’s legacy will live on in the advancements it brought to the industry and the positive impact it made on the riding experience.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a...
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a lot of companies across the bike food chain are having trouble getting rid of old stock and it doesn’t sound like new products are selling well either. It also seems like most of the industries that typical average joes work in are starting/continuing to get hit with layoffs with not much hiring/growth expected for the rest of the year (at least in the states). Adding in the high inflation we’ve been seeing and little technological advancement in the bike industry over the last 5 years; I don’t think customers are going to be able, or willing, to buy much new product outside of the usual consumables. It feels like a lot of the companies hanging on by a thread this year will hit the end of the road.
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)1) Its really hard to decouple...
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)
1) Its really hard to decouple the emotion from the business and be pragmatic when shutting something down, especially when there is still a little money left in the bank.
2) The levers those in power pull on have huge lag times. IE, what the Fed does with respect to interest rates is akin to trying to turn left and then the car does so like 10 miles down the road. Slowly. We are finally feeling the real effects of higher rates, which does appear to be squashing inflation but the hit to the jobs side of thing is a lot bigger than I think the numbers show. Of course the bike industry will continue to be impacted by this because outside us lunactics, who would rather starve than not ride, most people are going to forgo their bike/component/fun time purchase.
3) A long time ago one of the big mags made some predictions in the mtn bike space. One recurring prediction was that of consolidation, something more akin to moto. I think we're finally (really) seeing this with the likes of Specialized, Trek, Santa Cruz etc capturing so much of the market and really leaning into scale economies its going to be harder and harder for the little guys, especially frame companies, to keep up. I know I've made this argument before, but it seems truer and truer every year. You can amortize costs a lot easier if you sell 10,000 of something as opposed to 100 of something....and margins ARE under pressure.
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently.
Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the same time, there are so many boutique brands doing (comparatively) tiny runs of bikes that are eating into the commercial small to mid-sized brand market that is causing headaches.
Lots of tiny brands like Chromag (for frames) RAAW, Cotic etc are taking that 5-10% from mid sized brands that they need to survive.
My prediction is we will see a market of the big 4(5/6?) brands with total security, and a boutique market beneath that comprising 20-30% by a whole host of small companies a lot of which will specialize in local markets.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a...
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a lot of companies across the bike food chain are having trouble getting rid of old stock and it doesn’t sound like new products are selling well either. It also seems like most of the industries that typical average joes work in are starting/continuing to get hit with layoffs with not much hiring/growth expected for the rest of the year (at least in the states). Adding in the high inflation we’ve been seeing and little technological advancement in the bike industry over the last 5 years; I don’t think customers are going to be able, or willing, to buy much new product outside of the usual consumables. It feels like a lot of the companies hanging on by a thread this year will hit the end of the road.
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)1) Its really hard to decouple...
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)
1) Its really hard to decouple the emotion from the business and be pragmatic when shutting something down, especially when there is still a little money left in the bank.
2) The levers those in power pull on have huge lag times. IE, what the Fed does with respect to interest rates is akin to trying to turn left and then the car does so like 10 miles down the road. Slowly. We are finally feeling the real effects of higher rates, which does appear to be squashing inflation but the hit to the jobs side of thing is a lot bigger than I think the numbers show. Of course the bike industry will continue to be impacted by this because outside us lunactics, who would rather starve than not ride, most people are going to forgo their bike/component/fun time purchase.
3) A long time ago one of the big mags made some predictions in the mtn bike space. One recurring prediction was that of consolidation, something more akin to moto. I think we're finally (really) seeing this with the likes of Specialized, Trek, Santa Cruz etc capturing so much of the market and really leaning into scale economies its going to be harder and harder for the little guys, especially frame companies, to keep up. I know I've made this argument before, but it seems truer and truer every year. You can amortize costs a lot easier if you sell 10,000 of something as opposed to 100 of something....and margins ARE under pressure.
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently. Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the...
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently.
Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the same time, there are so many boutique brands doing (comparatively) tiny runs of bikes that are eating into the commercial small to mid-sized brand market that is causing headaches.
Lots of tiny brands like Chromag (for frames) RAAW, Cotic etc are taking that 5-10% from mid sized brands that they need to survive.
My prediction is we will see a market of the big 4(5/6?) brands with total security, and a boutique market beneath that comprising 20-30% by a whole host of small companies a lot of which will specialize in local markets.
It is always the mid size companies that struggle when times get hard. They have all the overheads of a larger company but without any of the economies of scale. They are too mainstream for the hardcore enthusiast but too niche for the everyday punter. I'm thinking Propain,Transition,Ibis, Pivot etc.
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently. Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the...
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently.
Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the same time, there are so many boutique brands doing (comparatively) tiny runs of bikes that are eating into the commercial small to mid-sized brand market that is causing headaches.
Lots of tiny brands like Chromag (for frames) RAAW, Cotic etc are taking that 5-10% from mid sized brands that they need to survive.
My prediction is we will see a market of the big 4(5/6?) brands with total security, and a boutique market beneath that comprising 20-30% by a whole host of small companies a lot of which will specialize in local markets.
The more I thought about this I feel the right framing (pun intended) is even more simple. The consolidation has (mostly) already happened. One fun way I tried to showcase this semi-objectively was by using Google Trends and seeing frequency of keyword searches of bikes we all consider "household names". As you can see, the Specialized Stumpjumper and Trek Fuel see an order of magnitude more traffic than anything from the smaller guys. Santa Cruz Nomad was a little bit of a a shocker here. This, combined with how "horizontal" the big boys already are (shoes, tires, helmets, tire sealant, wheels etc) tells me there isn't a lot more for them to "eat". They will jokey among each other for position, but the medium/small part of the market will continue to be there - especially being there is no reason for M&A to really happen - at least with respect to most frame/complete bike type of companies.
What does this mean for the smaller or even medium companies? Assuming your balance sheet is okay, and the market is buying your product, it'll come down to opportunity cost of those who work/own the company. Do you want to make $100K/yr in the bike industry or potentially a lot more CEOing/engineering/etc in some other industry? This is what will impact the boutique side of the business most, IMO. Like other "fine mechanical things", they'll be buyers for the rare/strange/cool, but the price point isn't luxury goods level, which is where the predicament will likely lie....for now anyway.
I'll save the rest of my predictions, which need to be taken with many large grains of salt (somebody put a milton picture somewhere here please), for the podcast
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)1) Its really hard to decouple...
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)
1) Its really hard to decouple the emotion from the business and be pragmatic when shutting something down, especially when there is still a little money left in the bank.
2) The levers those in power pull on have huge lag times. IE, what the Fed does with respect to interest rates is akin to trying to turn left and then the car does so like 10 miles down the road. Slowly. We are finally feeling the real effects of higher rates, which does appear to be squashing inflation but the hit to the jobs side of thing is a lot bigger than I think the numbers show. Of course the bike industry will continue to be impacted by this because outside us lunactics, who would rather starve than not ride, most people are going to forgo their bike/component/fun time purchase.
3) A long time ago one of the big mags made some predictions in the mtn bike space. One recurring prediction was that of consolidation, something more akin to moto. I think we're finally (really) seeing this with the likes of Specialized, Trek, Santa Cruz etc capturing so much of the market and really leaning into scale economies its going to be harder and harder for the little guys, especially frame companies, to keep up. I know I've made this argument before, but it seems truer and truer every year. You can amortize costs a lot easier if you sell 10,000 of something as opposed to 100 of something....and margins ARE under pressure.
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently. Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the...
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently.
Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the same time, there are so many boutique brands doing (comparatively) tiny runs of bikes that are eating into the commercial small to mid-sized brand market that is causing headaches.
Lots of tiny brands like Chromag (for frames) RAAW, Cotic etc are taking that 5-10% from mid sized brands that they need to survive.
My prediction is we will see a market of the big 4(5/6?) brands with total security, and a boutique market beneath that comprising 20-30% by a whole host of small companies a lot of which will specialize in local markets.
It is always the mid size companies that struggle when times get hard. They have all the overheads of a larger company but without any of...
It is always the mid size companies that struggle when times get hard. They have all the overheads of a larger company but without any of the economies of scale. They are too mainstream for the hardcore enthusiast but too niche for the everyday punter. I'm thinking Propain,Transition,Ibis, Pivot etc.
People always say that the privateers are the backbone of racing, and I disagree. The mid size companies and satelite factory teams that have a smaller buget, but still sponsor fan favorite riders are the ones holding the show together, IMO.
Satellite teams in this case are the privateers. Privateers as in teams whose sole reason for existence and only income is racing. This holds true for motorsports. With bike racing it's a bit more muddy. A few factory teams in the DH circuit are in fact privateers - Specialized and Pivot for example.
Satellite teams in this case are the privateers. Privateers as in teams whose sole reason for existence and only income is racing. This holds true for...
Satellite teams in this case are the privateers. Privateers as in teams whose sole reason for existence and only income is racing. This holds true for motorsports. With bike racing it's a bit more muddy. A few factory teams in the DH circuit are in fact privateers - Specialized and Pivot for example.
There are very few "factory teams" run by the brand.
Many brands pay an agency / private team owner to run their "factory" team.
Commencal Muc-off is owned and run by the Ruffin brothers, Gaëtan and Thibaut (Riding Addiction), who manage the team and riders.
Pivot is run by Bernard Kerr. Specialized is run by Jack Racing or however they are called and ran the Lapierre team in the days of Blenki and when Loic and Loris were coming up through the ranks.
I motorsports factory teams are much more factory, when the brand pulls the plug, the project is usually disbanded. Private teams that are factory backed (Jota in endurance racing, Pramac in MotoGP) pivot to a different factory and continue operating. I think Bernard would... pivot away from Pivot if the pulled the plug.
Specialized Gravity is owned and run by Laurent Delorme who owns Pure Agency SAS. Team Lapierre Gravity Republic was the 1st team, when Lapierre pulled the sponsorship he approached Specialized and the rest is history.
Downtime Podcast had an interesting interview earlier this year with Laurent. Listen HERE
Just a guess, but rumour of TLD/GasGas ending means maybe the company backing the team & carrying a large part fo the TLD ownership interest decided...
Just a guess, but rumour of TLD/GasGas ending means maybe the company backing the team & carrying a large part fo the TLD ownership interest decided to back out of sponsorship and at the same time sell back majority interest to Troy as opposed to draining the team, vanishing in thin air and strong arming Troy out?
As I understand it, KTM pulled the plug on the TLD/ Gas Gas team... Some consolidation going on there.. A lot of rumors pointing to a future TLD/ Ducati team in the future..
since this has turned into a general "MTB Business" thread, posting here that Pivot is now doing click-and-ship - Pivot Factory Orders
"Pivot Factory Orders enable customers to purchase directly from the Pivot Factory online store and facilitate pick-up through a Pivot Authorized Dealer. By purchasing a new or demo bike, you can add soft goods, accessories, and small parts to your order. We value our trusted dealers and believe they create the best rider experience for after sale support and setup."
since this has turned into a general "MTB Business" thread, posting here that Pivot is now doing click-and-ship - Pivot Factory Orders"Pivot Factory Orders enable customers...
since this has turned into a general "MTB Business" thread, posting here that Pivot is now doing click-and-ship - Pivot Factory Orders
"Pivot Factory Orders enable customers to purchase directly from the Pivot Factory online store and facilitate pick-up through a Pivot Authorized Dealer. By purchasing a new or demo bike, you can add soft goods, accessories, and small parts to your order. We value our trusted dealers and believe they create the best rider experience for after sale support and setup."
Now I could potentially purchase a Trail 429 (a bike I've been lusting over...even though it has that annoying-ass superboost rear spacing) without having to go through the local Pivot dealer who literally prices every single accessory, tool, and maintenance thing at more than double the price (they have the $31 Park chain cleaning tool priced at $80.99).
They're the same guys who tried to sell me - a 5'7" if I stand up extra straight guy with a proportionaly longer torso and shorter arms - Specialized Fuse 29" size large for $3200 in 2022. They said it'll fit great now and even better when I grow into it. I was 38 at the time with grey in my beard as I stood in their store and talked to their sales guy. He was saying literally anything he could to get me to buy that bike. I was looking for a mullet setup since I'm short. "Oh, 27.5" wheels are flimsy and the 29" wheels manual better anyway. These components are all really high end, too, so you'll have them a long time. You'll probably get tired of this frame and want to move up to something like a Stumpjumper before you have to replace any of the components" while looking at a RS Recon and Sram NX.
Luckily there's another bike shop in town who is owned by a saint of a human who loves bikes and carries Santa Cruz, Ibis and Rocky Mountain.
I'd love to work in the bike industry, but man lots of those positions have such specialized skillsets that if you get laid off you're in a muddy creek with no snorkel
I'd love to work in the bike industry, but man lots of those positions have such specialized skillsets that if you get laid off you're in...
I'd love to work in the bike industry, but man lots of those positions have such specialized skillsets that if you get laid off you're in a muddy creek with no snorkel
Not really, unless you are like a very specific marketing or engineer or tech support. Anything else from HR to purchasing, sales, demand planning, production planning, warehouse management, accounting, IT and anything else really require a similar skill set to any other sector of business.
I went from demand planning at a Bike Parts & Accessories distributor to demand planing for an hardware store company and the job is pretty much the same. But salary and benefits are way better outside of the bike industry.
I'd love to work in the bike industry, but man lots of those positions have such specialized skillsets that if you get laid off you're in...
I'd love to work in the bike industry, but man lots of those positions have such specialized skillsets that if you get laid off you're in a muddy creek with no snorkel
As @1llumA noted, unless you spend a long time building a career around something very esoteric, most things transfer pretty well. In fact, I've watched a buddy transition from suspension engineer to aerospace, another go from suspension engineer to medical device and a third go from product manager to running a large customer book at an industrial HVAC company.
The real bummer about "the bike industry" is it is hard to get paid what you could get paid in some other industry, equalizing for as many variables as possible.
On the plus side there have been a number of visionary minds that dabbled in bikes at one point or another; DeVinci and the Wright Bros both come to mind
Hearing local rumor that TGR has let go of every employee and is shutting down all retail locations. Not exacty a bike company, but they have made bike movies and are very much "in the scene". I haven't followed their path as closely as I should have considering they are in the backyard, but if memory serves PE money came in at some point, which led to an attempt to brand hotels with the TGR logo, and a number of retail establishments selling hats/tees popped up. Word is they are going back to their roots, founders retain control and very light/minimal staff.
I sense a theme...
Crazy about TGR, but they’ve definitely gone the fast fashion insane production cycle route of cranking out tons of releases and products. Kind of reminds me of the route Fasthouse is going (though TGT is obviously much bigger).
As seen on the other site - https://www.pinkbike.com/news/ohlins-restructures-its-mtb-department-amid-layoffs-reaffirms-commitment-to-racing.html
While I know its easy to jump on the "this is because Apollo owns the brand they are cutting costs" bandwagon, and I'm sure there is truth to Apollo looking a little more short term than a generational founder might, I think we can all agree seemingly every company has had to trim fat no matter who owns the firm. This is not bike specific, btw. Its across the board.
Personally I'd hate to be in the mountain bike suspension manufacturing game. It has to be really challenging. Every company offers pretty aburd warranty relative to any other industry (you get 30 days on a moto for instance), the engineering is complex, manufacturing requires crazy tolerences all things considered, assembly less than easy and the supply chain involves multiple countries, materials, etc.
I'm frankly pumped we have all the options we do, at the prices we do, despite the fact I'll continue to complain about durability being poor (with respect to forks anyway)
I wouldn’t be surprised if we got more layoffs and companies shutting down in the bike industry in 2025 compared to 2024. It seems like a lot of companies across the bike food chain are having trouble getting rid of old stock and it doesn’t sound like new products are selling well either. It also seems like most of the industries that typical average joes work in are starting/continuing to get hit with layoffs with not much hiring/growth expected for the rest of the year (at least in the states). Adding in the high inflation we’ve been seeing and little technological advancement in the bike industry over the last 5 years; I don’t think customers are going to be able, or willing, to buy much new product outside of the usual consumables. It feels like a lot of the companies hanging on by a thread this year will hit the end of the road.
I don't disagree with this at all. Few more thoughts (I really should just make this a podcast or something lol)
1) Its really hard to decouple the emotion from the business and be pragmatic when shutting something down, especially when there is still a little money left in the bank.
2) The levers those in power pull on have huge lag times. IE, what the Fed does with respect to interest rates is akin to trying to turn left and then the car does so like 10 miles down the road. Slowly. We are finally feeling the real effects of higher rates, which does appear to be squashing inflation but the hit to the jobs side of thing is a lot bigger than I think the numbers show. Of course the bike industry will continue to be impacted by this because outside us lunactics, who would rather starve than not ride, most people are going to forgo their bike/component/fun time purchase.
3) A long time ago one of the big mags made some predictions in the mtn bike space. One recurring prediction was that of consolidation, something more akin to moto. I think we're finally (really) seeing this with the likes of Specialized, Trek, Santa Cruz etc capturing so much of the market and really leaning into scale economies its going to be harder and harder for the little guys, especially frame companies, to keep up. I know I've made this argument before, but it seems truer and truer every year. You can amortize costs a lot easier if you sell 10,000 of something as opposed to 100 of something....and margins ARE under pressure.
VitalMTB's The Inside Brine podcast, coming soon.
I'd listen!
Also, can't upvote this enough "...who would rather starve than not ride..." 😅
https://www.instagram.com/p/C-p2hjCvgpJ/?igsh=dTUyemJrNHN5bDZn
For those without Insta:
Official statement from Archer :/
Archer Components Announces Transition to Limited Operations
August 14, 2024 – Santa Cruz, CA – Archer Components, a leader in electronic shifting technology for bicycles, today announced that it will be transitioning to limited operations. While the company will no longer be producing new products, it will continue to sell off its existing inventory and provide service and support from the original garage where the company was founded, for as long as possible. This decision comes after careful consideration of the current market conditions and the evolving landscape of the cycling industry.
In light of this transition, Archer Components is actively seeking potential buyers who are interested in acquiring the company's innovative technologies and continuing its legacy of excellence in the cycling industry. The company is open to discussions with parties who share its vision and commitment to advancing cycling technology.
Since its founding, Archer Components has been dedicated to delivering cutting-edge solutions that have empowered cyclists around the world to enhance their riding experience. The company’s flagship product, the Archer D1x Trail electronic shifter, set new standards for performance and adaptability, making it a favorite among cyclists and bike mechanics alike.
“We are incredibly proud of what we have accomplished at Archer Components,” said Brandon Rodgers, Co-founder and CEO. “Our team has always been driven by a passion for innovation and a commitment to improving the cycling experience. Unfortunately, despite our best efforts, the current market dynamics have made it unsustainable for us to continue full-scale operations. We are deeply grateful to our customers, partners, and the cycling community for their support over the years.”
Archer Components will be working closely with its distributors, retailers, and customers to ensure a smooth transition as the company winds down its larger operations. The company will continue to honor warranties and provide customer support during this period. Detailed information on these processes will be available on the company’s website.
“We couldn’t have done any of this without the talented folks at our shop in Scotts Valley, CA, and the dedicated team from around the world who helped make this a success,” said Devin Carlson, Co-founder and COO.
Archer Components would like to extend its deepest appreciation to the cycling community for its loyalty and enthusiasm. The company’s legacy will live on in the advancements it brought to the industry and the positive impact it made on the riding experience.
For number 3. Jeff I actually think it's fragmenting a bit differently.
Were seeing consolidation by the big brands, PON, Trek, Specialized and Giant but at the same time, there are so many boutique brands doing (comparatively) tiny runs of bikes that are eating into the commercial small to mid-sized brand market that is causing headaches.
Lots of tiny brands like Chromag (for frames) RAAW, Cotic etc are taking that 5-10% from mid sized brands that they need to survive.
My prediction is we will see a market of the big 4(5/6?) brands with total security, and a boutique market beneath that comprising 20-30% by a whole host of small companies a lot of which will specialize in local markets.
It is always the mid size companies that struggle when times get hard. They have all the overheads of a larger company but without any of the economies of scale. They are too mainstream for the hardcore enthusiast but too niche for the everyday punter.
I'm thinking Propain,Transition,Ibis, Pivot etc.
The more I thought about this I feel the right framing (pun intended) is even more simple. The consolidation has (mostly) already happened. One fun way I tried to showcase this semi-objectively was by using Google Trends and seeing frequency of keyword searches of bikes we all consider "household names". As you can see, the Specialized Stumpjumper and Trek Fuel see an order of magnitude more traffic than anything from the smaller guys. Santa Cruz Nomad was a little bit of a a shocker here. This, combined with how "horizontal" the big boys already are (shoes, tires, helmets, tire sealant, wheels etc) tells me there isn't a lot more for them to "eat". They will jokey among each other for position, but the medium/small part of the market will continue to be there - especially being there is no reason for M&A to really happen - at least with respect to most frame/complete bike type of companies.
What does this mean for the smaller or even medium companies? Assuming your balance sheet is okay, and the market is buying your product, it'll come down to opportunity cost of those who work/own the company. Do you want to make $100K/yr in the bike industry or potentially a lot more CEOing/engineering/etc in some other industry? This is what will impact the boutique side of the business most, IMO. Like other "fine mechanical things", they'll be buyers for the rare/strange/cool, but the price point isn't luxury goods level, which is where the predicament will likely lie....for now anyway.
I'll save the rest of my predictions, which need to be taken with many large grains of salt (somebody put a milton picture somewhere here please), for the podcast
People always say that the privateers are the backbone of racing, and I disagree. The mid size companies and satelite factory teams that have a smaller buget, but still sponsor fan favorite riders are the ones holding the show together, IMO.
Satellite teams in this case are the privateers. Privateers as in teams whose sole reason for existence and only income is racing. This holds true for motorsports. With bike racing it's a bit more muddy. A few factory teams in the DH circuit are in fact privateers - Specialized and Pivot for example.
Privateer, and Satelite teams I mean in the most practical way. Specialized and Pivot are for sure, full factory efforts.
Mid size teams = Pivot, Intense, Cannondale, Scott ect.
Satelite teams= Commencals not sponsored by Muc-Off. Santa Cruzes outside of the Syndicate, ect.
There are very few "factory teams" run by the brand.
Many brands pay an agency / private team owner to run their "factory" team.
Commencal Muc-off is owned and run by the Ruffin brothers, Gaëtan and Thibaut (Riding Addiction), who manage the team and riders.
Pivot is run by Bernard Kerr. Specialized is run by Jack Racing or however they are called and ran the Lapierre team in the days of Blenki and when Loic and Loris were coming up through the ranks.
I motorsports factory teams are much more factory, when the brand pulls the plug, the project is usually disbanded. Private teams that are factory backed (Jota in endurance racing, Pramac in MotoGP) pivot to a different factory and continue operating. I think Bernard would... pivot away from Pivot if the pulled the plug.
Specialized Gravity is owned and run by Laurent Delorme who owns Pure Agency SAS. Team Lapierre Gravity Republic was the 1st team, when Lapierre pulled the sponsorship he approached Specialized and the rest is history.
Downtime Podcast had an interesting interview earlier this year with Laurent. Listen HERE
As I understand it, KTM pulled the plug on the TLD/ Gas Gas team... Some consolidation going on there.. A lot of rumors pointing to a future TLD/ Ducati team in the future..
since this has turned into a general "MTB Business" thread, posting here that Pivot is now doing click-and-ship - Pivot Factory Orders
"Pivot Factory Orders enable customers to purchase directly from the Pivot Factory online store and facilitate pick-up through a Pivot Authorized Dealer. By purchasing a new or demo bike, you can add soft goods, accessories, and small parts to your order. We value our trusted dealers and believe they create the best rider experience for after sale support and setup."
https://global.pivotcycles.com/pivot-factory-orders/
Interesting!
Now I could potentially purchase a Trail 429 (a bike I've been lusting over...even though it has that annoying-ass superboost rear spacing) without having to go through the local Pivot dealer who literally prices every single accessory, tool, and maintenance thing at more than double the price (they have the $31 Park chain cleaning tool priced at $80.99).
They're the same guys who tried to sell me - a 5'7" if I stand up extra straight guy with a proportionaly longer torso and shorter arms - Specialized Fuse 29" size large for $3200 in 2022. They said it'll fit great now and even better when I grow into it. I was 38 at the time with grey in my beard as I stood in their store and talked to their sales guy. He was saying literally anything he could to get me to buy that bike. I was looking for a mullet setup since I'm short. "Oh, 27.5" wheels are flimsy and the 29" wheels manual better anyway. These components are all really high end, too, so you'll have them a long time. You'll probably get tired of this frame and want to move up to something like a Stumpjumper before you have to replace any of the components" while looking at a RS Recon and Sram NX.
Luckily there's another bike shop in town who is owned by a saint of a human who loves bikes and carries Santa Cruz, Ibis and Rocky Mountain.
Just so we have everything aggregated here (I may or may not be making an Office Space inspired power point - and this is one of my "sources")
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/08/23/hayes-performa…
Hayes lays off less than 10% of its workforce (small layoff - but still)
10% is "small" company-wide but 50+ people getting the boot is pretty significant. especially if a portion of them are in rural wisconsin.
I'd love to work in the bike industry, but man lots of those positions have such specialized skillsets that if you get laid off you're in a muddy creek with no snorkel
...and I missed this one too! https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/08/20/gopro-reduce-workforce-about-15 - hardly surprising, and not exactly bike specific.
Not really, unless you are like a very specific marketing or engineer or tech support. Anything else from HR to purchasing, sales, demand planning, production planning, warehouse management, accounting, IT and anything else really require a similar skill set to any other sector of business.
I went from demand planning at a Bike Parts & Accessories distributor to demand planing for an hardware store company and the job is pretty much the same. But salary and benefits are way better outside of the bike industry.
I’m going to say that in the next 6 months a “big”
But actually small brand files for liquidation.
Is this a hunch or do you have actual knowledge of a situation?
As @1llumA noted, unless you spend a long time building a career around something very esoteric, most things transfer pretty well. In fact, I've watched a buddy transition from suspension engineer to aerospace, another go from suspension engineer to medical device and a third go from product manager to running a large customer book at an industrial HVAC company.
The real bummer about "the bike industry" is it is hard to get paid what you could get paid in some other industry, equalizing for as many variables as possible.
On the plus side there have been a number of visionary minds that dabbled in bikes at one point or another; DeVinci and the Wright Bros both come to mind
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